arXiv subjects

S. M. Lawler

Publications and source records attributed to S. M. Lawler.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

A study of the high-inclination population in the Kuiper belt -- IV. High-order mean motion resonances in the classical region

In our previous study of Neptune's 4:7 mean motion resonance (MMR), we discovered that its resonant angle can only librate within a specific eccentricity ($e$) versus inclination ($i$) region, determined by a theoretical limiting curve curve (Li et al. 2020). This ``permissible region'' is independent of time and encompasses the entire possible stable region. We now generalize this theory to investigate all high-order MMRs embedded in the main classical Kuiper belt (MCKB). We first consider the 2nd-order 3:5 MMR in the framework of planet migration and resonance capture, and have further validated our limiting curve theory for both captured and observed 3:5 resonators. It suggests that only the $(e, i)$ pairs inside the individual permissible regions should be chosen as initial conditions for studying the in-situ evolution of high-order resonators. With such a new setting, we proceed to explore the long-term stability (for 4 Gyr) of different resonant populations, and our simulations predict that: (1) the 3:5 and 4:7 resonators are comparable in number, and they could have inclinations up to $40^{\circ}$; (2) the populations of objects in the higher order 5:9, 6:11, 7:12 and 7:13 resonances is about 1/10 of the 3:5 (or 4:7) resonator population, and nearly all of them are found on the less inclined orbits with $i<10^{\circ}$; (3) for these high-order resonances, almost all resonators reside in their individual permissible regions. In summary, our results make predictions for the number and orbital distributions of potential resonant objects that will be discovered in the future throughout the MCKB.

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arXiv2022

OSSOS XXV: Large Populations and Scattering-Sticking in the Distant Transneptunian Resonances

There have been 77 TNOs discovered to be librating in the distant transneptunian resonances (beyond the 2:1 resonance, at semimajor axes greater than 47.7~AU) in four well-characterized surveys: the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) and three similar prior surveys. Here we use the OSSOS Survey Simulator to measure their intrinsic orbital distributions using an empirical parameterized model. Because many of the resonances had only one or very few detections, $j$:$k$ resonant objects were grouped by $k$ in order to have a better basis for comparison between models and reality. We also use the Survey Simulator to constrain their absolute populations, finding that they are much larger than predicted by any published Neptune migration model to date; we also find population ratios that are inconsistent with published models, presenting a challenge for future Kuiper Belt emplacement models. The estimated population ratios between these resonances are largely consistent with scattering-sticking predictions, though further discoveries of resonant TNOs with high-precision orbits will be needed to determine whether scattering-sticking can explain the entire distant resonant population or not.

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arXiv2021

Visibility Predictions for Near-Future Satellite Megaconstellations: Latitudes near 50 Degrees will Experience the Worst Light Pollution

Megaconstellations of thousands to tens of thousands of artificial satellites (satcons) are rapidly being developed and launched. These satcons will have negative consequences for observational astronomy research, and are poised to drastically interfere with naked-eye stargazing worldwide should mitigation efforts be unsuccessful. Here we provide predictions for the optical brightnesses and on-sky distributions of several satcons, including Starlink, OneWeb, Kuiper, and StarNet/GW, for a total of 65,000 satellites on their filed or predicted orbits. We develop a simple model of satellite reflectivity, which is calibrated using published Starlink observations. We use this model to estimate the visible magnitudes and on-sky distributions for these satellites as seen from different places on Earth, in different seasons, and different times of night. For latitudes near 50 degrees North and South, satcon satellites make up a few percent of all visible point sources all night long near the summer solstice, as well as near sunrise and sunset on the equinoxes. Altering the satellites' altitudes only changes the specific impacts of the problem. Without drastic reduction of the reflectivities, or significantly fewer total satellites in orbit, satcons will significantly change the night sky worldwide.

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arXiv2019

A study of the high-inclination population in the Kuiper belt -- III. The 4:7 mean motion resonance

The high-inclination population in the 4:7 mean motion resonance (MMR) with Neptune has also substantial eccentricities ($e\gtrsim0.1$), with more inclined objects tending to occupy more eccentric orbits. For this high-order resonance, there are two different resonant modes. The principal one is the eccentricity-type mode, and we find that libration is permissible for orbits with $e\ge e_c^0$, where the critical eccentricity $e_c^0$ increases as a function of increasing inclination $i$. Correspondingly, we introduce a limiting curve $e_c^0(i)$, which puts constraints on the $(e, i)$ distribution of possible 4:7 resonators. We then perform numerical simulations on the sweep-up capture and long-term stability of the 4:7 MMR, and the results show that the simulated resonators are well-constrained by this theoretical limiting curve. The other 4:7 resonant mode is the mixed-$(e, i)$-type, and we show that stable resonators should exist at $i\gtrsim20^{\circ}$. We predict that the intrinsic number of these mixed-$(e, i)$-type resonators may provide a new clue into the Solar system's evolution, but, so far, only one real object has been observed resonating in this mode.

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arXiv2019

Planetary Astronomy-Understanding the Origin of the Solar System

There is a vibrant and effective planetary science community in Canada. We do research in the areas of meteoritics, asteroid and trans-Neptunian object orbits and compositions, and space weather, and are involved in space probe missions to study planetary surfaces and interiors. For Canadian planetary scientists to deliver the highest scientific impact possible, we have several recommendations. Our top recommendation is to join LSST and gain access to the full data releases by hosting a data centre, which could be done by adding to the CADC, which is already highly involved in hosting planetary data and supporting computational modelling for orbital studies. We also support MSE, which can provide spectroscopy and thus compositional information for thousands of small bodies. We support a Canadian-led microsatellite, POEP, which will provide small body sizes by measuring occultations. We support the idea of piggybacking space weather instruments on other astronomical space probes to provide data for the space weather community. Many Canadian planetary scientists are involved in space probe missions, but through haphazard and temporary arrangements like co-appointments at US institutions, so we would like the community to support Canadian researchers to participate in these large, international missions.

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arXiv2019

OSSOS: XIII. Fossilized Resonant Dropouts Tentatively Confirm Neptune's Migration was Grainy and Slow

The migration of Neptune's resonances through the proto-Kuiper belt has been imprinted in the distribution of small bodies in the outer Solar System. Here we analyze five published Neptune migration models in detail, focusing on the high pericenter distance (high-q) trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) near Neptune's 5:2 and 3:1 mean-motion resonances, because they have large resonant populations, are outside the main classical belt, and are relatively isolated from other strong resonances. We compare the observationally biased output from these dynamical models with the detected TNOs from the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, via its Survey Simulator. All of the four new OSSOS detections of high-q non-resonant TNOs are on the Sunward side of the 5:2 and 3:1 resonances. We show that even after accounting for observation biases, this asymmetric distribution cannot be drawn from a uniform distribution of TNOs at 2sigma confidence. As shown by previous work, our analysis here tentatively confirms that the dynamical model that uses grainy slow Neptune migration provides the best match to the real high-q TNO orbital data. However, due to extreme observational biases, we have very few high-q TNO discoveries with which to statistically constrain the models. Thus, this analysis provides a framework for future comparison between the output from detailed, dynamically classified Neptune migration simulations and the TNO discoveries from future well-characterized surveys. We show that a deeper survey (to a limiting r-magnitude of 26.0) with a similar survey area to OSSOS could statistically distinguish between these five Neptune migration models.

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arXiv2018

OSSOS: X. How to use a Survey Simulator: Statistical Testing of Dynamical Models Against the Real Kuiper Belt

All surveys include observational biases, which makes it impossible to directly compare properties of discovered trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) with dynamical models. However, by carefully keeping track of survey pointings on the sky, detection limits, tracking fractions, and rate cuts, the biases from a survey can be modelled in Survey Simulator software. A Survey Simulator takes an intrinsic orbital model (from, for example, the output of a dynamical Kuiper belt emplacement simulation) and applies the survey biases, so that the biased simulated objects can be directly compared with real discoveries. This methodology has been used with great success in the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS) and its predecessor surveys. In this chapter, we give four examples of ways to use the OSSOS Survey Simulator to gain knowledge about the true structure of the Kuiper Belt. We demonstrate how to statistically compare different dynamical model outputs with real TNO discoveries, how to quantify detection biases within a TNO population, how to measure intrinsic population sizes, and how to use upper limits from non-detections. We hope this will provide a framework for dynamical modellers to statistically test the validity of their models.

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arXiv2018

OSSOS. VIII. The Transition Between Two Size Distribution Slopes in the Scattering Disk

The scattering trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) can be measured to smaller sizes than any other distant small-body population. We use the largest sample yet obtained, 68 discoveries, primarily by the Outer Solar System Origins Survey (OSSOS), to constrain the slope of its luminosity distribution, with sensitivity to much fainter absolute $H$ magnitudes than previous work. Using the analysis technique in Shankman et al. (2016), we confirm that a single slope for the $H$-distribution is not an accurate representation of the scattering TNOs and Centaurs, and that a break in the distribution is required, in support of previous conclusions. A bright-end slope of $α_b=0.9$ transitioning to a faint-end slope $α_f$ of 0.4-0.5 with a differential number contrast $c$ from 1 (a knee) to 10 (a divot) provides an acceptable match to our data. We find that break magnitudes $H_b$ of 7.7 and 8.3, values both previously suggested for dynamically hot Kuiper belt populations, are equally non-rejectable for a range of $α_f$ and $c$ in our statistical analysis. Our preferred divot $H$-distribution transitions to $α_f=0.5$ with a divot of contrast $c=3$ at $H_b=8.3$, while our preferred knee $H$-distribution transitions to $α_f=0.4$ at $H_b=7.7$. The intrinsic population of scattering TNOs required to match the OSSOS detections is $3\times10^6$ for $H_r<12$, and $9\times10^4$ for $H_r<8.66$ ($D\gtrsim100$~km), with Centaurs having an intrinsic population two orders of magnitude smaller.

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arXiv2017

Details of Resonant Structures Within a Nice Model Kuiper Belt: Predictions for High-Perihelion TNO Detections

We analyze a detailed Nice model simulation of Kuiper Belt emplacement from Brasser & Morbidelli (2013), where Neptune undergoes a high eccentricity phase and migrates outward. In this work, which follows from Pike et al. (2017), we specifically focus on the details of structures within Neptune's mean motion resonances and in the high pericenter population of simulated trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs). We find several characteristics of these populations which should be observable in the distant Solar System in future large-scale TNO surveys as a diagnostic of whether or not this mode of Neptune migration occurred in the early Solar System. We find that the leading asymmetric libration islands of the $n$:1 resonances are generally much more populated than the trailing islands. We also find the non-resonant high-$q$ population of TNOs should have higher inclinations than the low-$q$ population due to the importance of Kozai cycling during their emplacement histories. Finally, high-$q$ TNOs should be present in roughly equal numbers on either side of distant mean-motion resonances. These predictions contrast with predictions from other Kuiper Belt emplacement simulations, and will be testable by upcoming surveys.

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arXiv2016

Observational Signatures of a Massive Distant Planet on the Scattering Disk

The orbital element distribution of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with large pericenters has been suggested to be influenced by the presence of an undetected, large planet at >200 AU from the Sun. To find additional observables caused by this scenario, we here present the first detailed emplacement simulation in the presence of a massive ninth planet on the distant Kuiper Belt. We perform 4 Gyr N-body simulations with the currently known Solar System planetary architecture, plus a 10 Earth mass planet with similar orbital parameters to those suggested by Trujillo & Sheppard (2014) or Batygin & Brown (2016), and 10^5 test particles in an initial planetesimal disk. We find that including a distant superearth-mass planet produces a substantially different orbital distribution for the scattering and detached TNOs, raising the pericenters and inclinations of moderate semimajor axis (50<a<500 AU) objects. We test whether this signature is detectable via a simulator with the observational characteristics of four precisely characterized TNO surveys. We find that the qualitatively very distinct Solar System models that include a ninth planet are essentially observationally indistinguishable from an outer Solar System produced solely by the four giant planets. We also find that the mass of the Kuiper Belt's current scattering and detached populations is required to be 3-10 times larger in the presence of an additional planet. We do not find any evidence for clustering of orbital angles in our simulated TNO population. Wide-field, deep surveys targeting inclined high-pericenter objects will be required to distinguish between these different scenarios.

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arXiv2016

Consequences of a Distant Massive Planet on the Large Semi-major Axis Trans-Neptunian Objects

We explore the distant giant planet hypothesis by integrating the large semi-major axis, large pericenter Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) in the presence of the giant planets and an external perturber whose orbit is consistent with the proposed distant, eccentric, and inclined giant planet, so called planet 9. We find that TNOs with semi-major axes greater than 250 au experience some longitude of perihelion shepherding, but that a generic outcome of such evolutions is that the TNOs evolve to larger pericenter orbits, and commonly get raised to retrograde inclinations. This pericenter and inclination evolution requires a massive disk of TNOs (tens of M$_\Earth$) in order to explain the detection of the known sample today. Some of the highly inclined orbits produced by the examined perturbers will be inside of the orbital parameter space probed by prior surveys, implying a missing signature of the 9th planet scenario. The distant giant planet scenarios explored in this work do not reproduce the observed signal of simultaneous clustering in argument of pericenter, longitude of the ascending node, and longitude of perihelion in the region of the known TNOs.

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arXiv2016

The Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) - High Latitude Component

We report the orbital distribution of the Trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered during the High Ecliptic Latitude (HiLat) extension of the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS), conducted from June 2006 to July 2009. The HiLat component was designed to address one of the shortcomings of ecliptic surveys (like CFEPS), their lack of sensitivity to high-inclination objects. We searched 701~deg$^2$ of sky ranging from 12$^\circ$ to 85$^\circ$ ecliptic latitude and discovered \lKBO TNOs, with inclinations between 15$^\circ$ to 104$^\circ$. This survey places a very strong constraint on the inclination distribution of the hot component of the classical Kuiper Belt, ruling out any possibility of a large intrinsic fraction of highly inclined orbits. Using the parameterization of \citet{2001AJ....121.2804B}, the HiLat sample combined with CFEPS imposes a width $14^\circ \le σ\le 15.5^\circ$, with a best match for $σ= 14.5^\circ$. HiLat discovered the first retrograde TNO, 2008~KV$_{42}$, with an almost polar orbit with inclination 104$^\circ$, and (418993), a scattering object with perihelion in the region of Saturn's influence, with $a \sim 400$~AU and $i = 68^\circ$.

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arXiv2015

Fomalhaut b as a Dust Cloud: Frequent Collisions within the Fomalhaut Disk

The planet candidate Fomalhaut b is bright in optical light but undetected in longer wavelengths, requiring a large, reflective dust cloud. The most recent observations find an extremely eccentric orbit (e ~ 0.8), indicating that Fomalhaut b cannot be the planet that is constraining the system's eccentric debris ring. An irregular satellite swarm around a super-Earth has been proposed, however, explaining the well-constrained debris ring requires an additional planet on an orbit that crosses that of the putative super-Earth. This paper expands upon a second theory: Fomalhaut b is a transient dust cloud produced by a catastrophic collision between planetesimals in the disk. We perform collisional probability simulations of the Fomalhaut debris disk based on the structure of our Kuiper belt, finding that the catastrophic disruption rate of d ~ 100 km bodies in the high-eccentricity scattering component is several per decade. This model paints a picture of the Fomalhaut system as having recently (within ~10-100 Myr) experienced a dynamical instability within its planetary system, which scattered a massive number of planetesimals onto large, high eccentricity orbits similar to that of Fom b. If Fomalhaut b is indeed a dust cloud produced by such a collision, we should soon see another appear, while Fomalhaut b will expand until it is either resolved or becomes too faint to be seen.

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arXiv2014

The Debris Disk of Solar Analogue $τ$ Ceti: Herschel Observations and Dynamical Simulations of the Proposed Multiplanet System

$τ$ Ceti is a nearby, mature G-type star very similar to our Sun, with a massive Kuiper Belt analogue (Greaves et al. 2004) and possible multiplanet system (Tuomi et al. 2013) that has been compared to our Solar System. We present Herschel Space Observatory images of the debris disk, finding the disk is resolved at 70 and 160 microns, and marginally resolved at 250 microns. The Herschel images and infrared photometry from the literature are best modelled using a wide dust annulus with an inner edge between 1-10 AU and an outer edge at ~55 AU, inclined from face-on by 35$\pm$10 degrees, and with no significant azimuthal structure. We model the proposed tightly-packed planetary system of five super-Earths and find that the innermost dynamically stable disk orbits are consistent with the inner edge found by the observations. The photometric modelling, however, cannot rule out a disk inner edge as close to the star as 1 AU, though larger distances produce a better fit to the data. Dynamical modelling shows that the 5 planet system is stable with the addition of a Neptune or smaller mass planet on an orbit outside 5 AU, where the Tuomi et al. analysis would not have detected a planet of this mass.

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arXiv2014

The Debiased Kuiper Belt: Our Solar System as a Debris Disk

The dust measured in debris disks traces the position of planetesimal belts. In our Solar System, we are also able to measure the largest planetesimals directly and can extrapolate down to make an estimate of the dust. The zodiacal dust from the asteroid belt is better constrained than the only rudimentary measurements of Kuiper belt dust. Dust models will thus be based on the current orbital distribution of the larger bodies which provide the collisional source. The orbital distribution of many Kuiper belt objects is strongly affected by dynamical interactions with Neptune, and the structure cannot be understood without taking this into account. We present the debiased Kuiper belt as measured by the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS). This model includes the absolute populations for objects with diameters >100 km, measured orbital distributions, and size distributions of the components of the Kuiper belt: the classical belt (hot, stirred, and kernel components), the scattering disk, the detached objects, and the resonant objects (1:1, 5:4, 4:3, 3:2 including Kozai subcomponent, 5:3, 7:4, 2:1, 7:3, 5:2, 3:1, and 5:1). Because a large fraction of known debris disks are consistent with dust at Kuiper belt distances from the host stars, the CFEPS Kuiper belt model provides an excellent starting point for a debris disk model, as the dynamical interactions with planets interior to the disk are well-understood and can be precisely modelled using orbital integrations.

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arXiv2013

Plutino Detection Biases, Including the Kozai Resonance

Because of their proximity within the transneptunian region, the plutinos (objects in the 3:2 mean-motion resonance with Neptune) are numerous in flux-limited catalogs, and well-studied theoretically. We perform detailed modelling of the on-sky detection biases for plutinos, with special attention to those that are simultaneously in the Kozai resonance. In addition to the normal 3:2 resonant argument libration, Kozai plutinos also show periodic oscillations in eccentricity and inclination, coupled to the argument of perihelion (omega) oscillation. Due to the mean-motion resonance, plutinos avoid coming to pericenter near Neptune's current position in the ecliptic plane. Because Kozai plutinos are restricted to certain values of omega, perihelion always occurs out of the ecliptic plane, biasing ecliptic surveys against finding these objects. The observed Kozai plutino fraction (fkoz) has been measured by several surveys, finding values between 8% and 25%, while the true fkoz has been predicted to be between 10% and 30% by different giant planet migration simulations. We show that the observed fkoz varies widely depending on the ecliptic latitude and longitude of the survey, so debiasing to find the true ratio is complex. Even a survey that covers most or all of the sky will detect an apparent Kozai fraction that is different from the true fkoz. We present a map of the on-sky plutino Kozai fraction that would be detected by all-sky flux-limited surveys. This will be especially important for the Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) and Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) projects, which may detect large numbers of plutinos as they sweep the sky. The Kozai fraction and the distribution of the orbital elements of Kozai plutinos may be a diagnostic of giant planet migration; future migration simulations should provide details on their resonant Kozai populations.

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arXiv2012

The Resonant Transneptunian Populations

The transneptunian objects (TNOs) trapped in mean-motion resonances with Neptune were likely emplaced there during planet migration late in the giant-planet formation process. We perform detailed modelling of the resonant objects detected in the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey (CFEPS) in order to provide population estimates and, for some resonances, constrain the complex internal orbital element distribution. Detection biases play a critical role because phase relationships with Neptune make object discovery more likely at certain longitudes. This paper discusses the 3:2, 5:2, 2:1, 3:1, 5:1, 4:3, 5:3, 7:3, 5:4, and 7:4 mean-motion resonances, all of which had CFEPS detections, along with our upper limit on 1:1 Neptune Trojans (which is consistent with their small population estimated elsewhere). For the plutinos (TNOs in the 3:2 resonance) we refine the orbital element distribution given in Kavelaars et al. (2009) and show that steep H-magnitude distributions (N(H) proportional to 10aH, with a=0.8-0.9) are favoured in the range Hg=8-9, and confirm that this resonance does not share the inclination distribution of the classical Kuiper Belt. We give the first population estimate for the 5:2 resonance and find that, to within the uncertainties, the population is equal to that of the 3:2 (13,000 TNOs with Hg < 9.16), whereas the 2:1 population is smaller by a factor of 3-4 compared to the other two resonances. We also measure significant populations inhabiting the 4:3, 5:3, 7:3, 5:4, 7:4, 3:1, and 5:1 resonances, with Hg < 9.16 (D >100 km) populations in the thousands. We compare our intrinsic population and orbital-element distributions with several published models of resonant-TNO production; the most striking discrepancy is that resonances beyond the 2:1 are in reality more heavily populated than in published models.

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arXiv2012

Debris Disks in Kepler Exoplanet Systems

The Kepler Mission recently identified 997 systems hosting candidate extrasolar planets, many of which are super-Earths. Realizing these planetary systems are candidates to host extrasolar asteroid belts, we use mid-infrared data from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) to search for emission from dust in these systems. We find excesses around eight stars, indicating the presence of warm to hot dust (~100-500 K), corresponding to orbital distances of 0.1-10 AU for these solar-type stars. The strongest detection, KOI 1099, demands ~500 K dust interior to the orbit of its exoplanet candidate. One star, KOI 904, may host very hot dust (~1200 K, corresponding to 0.02 AU). Although the fraction of these exoplanet-bearing stars with detectable warm excesses (~3%) is similar to that found by Spitzer surveys of solar-type field stars, the excesses detectable in the WISE data have much higher fractional luminosities (Ldust/L*) than most known debris disks, implying that the fraction with debris disks of comparable luminosity may actually be significantly higher. It is difficult to explain the presence of dust so close to the host stars, generally corresponding to dust rings at radii <0.3 AU; both the collisional and Poynting-Robertson drag timescales to remove dust from the system are hundreds of years or less at these distances. Assuming a steady-state for these systems implies large mass consumption rates with these short removal timescales, meaning that the dust production mechanism in these systems must almost certainly be episodic in nature.

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