arXiv subjects

S. R. Chesley

Publications and source records attributed to S. R. Chesley.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Internal rubble properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu

Exploration of asteroid (101955) Bennu by the OSIRIS-REx mission has provided an in-depth look at this rubble-pile near-Earth asteroid. In particular, the measured gravity field and the detailed shape model of Bennu indicate significant heterogeneities in its interior structure, compatible with a lower density at its center. Here we combine gravity inversion methods with a statistical rubble-pile model to determine the density and size-frequency distribution (SFD) index of the rubble that constitutes Bennu. The best-fitting models indicate that the SFD of the interior is consistent with that observed on the surface, with a cumulative SFD index of approximately $-2.9$. The rubble bulk density is approximately $1.35$ g/cm$^3$, corresponding to a $12$% macro-porosity. We find the largest rubble particle to be approximately $145$ m, whereas the largest void is approximately $10$ m.

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arXiv2020

Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Uncertainties

We present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study we consider Apophis' risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find ${\rm IP}\leq 5\times 10^{-5}$ for the 2036 keyhole and ${\rm IP}\leq 1.6\times 10^{-5}$ for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.

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arXiv2017

OSIRIS-REx: Sample Return from Asteroid (101955) Bennu

In May of 2011, NASA selected the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) asteroid sample return mission as the third mission in the New Frontiers program. The other two New Frontiers missions are New Horizons, which explored Pluto during a flyby in July 2015 and is on its way for a flyby of Kuiper Belt object 2014 MU69 on Jan. 1, 2019, and Juno, an orbiting mission that is studying the origin, evolution, and internal structure of Jupiter. The spacecraft departed for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu aboard an United Launch Alliance Atlas V 411 evolved expendable launch vehicle at 7:05 p.m. EDT on September 8, 2016, on a seven-year journey to return samples from Bennu. The spacecraft is on an outbound-cruise trajectory that will result in a rendezvous with Bennu in August 2018. The science instruments on the spacecraft will survey Bennu to measure its physical, geological, and chemical properties, and the team will use these data to select a site on the surface to collect at least 60 g of asteroid regolith. The team will also analyze the remote-sensing data to perform a detailed study of the sample site for context, assess Bennus resource potential, refine estimates of its impact probability with Earth, and provide ground-truth data for the extensive astronomical data set collected on this asteroid. The spacecraft will leave Bennu in 2021 and return the sample to the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) on September 24, 2023.

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arXiv2016

The atmospheric impact trajectory of asteroid 2014 AA

Near-Earth asteroid 2014 AA entered the Earth's atmosphere on 2014 January 2, only 21 hours after being discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey. In this paper we compute the trajectory of 2014 AA by combining the available optical astrometry, seven ground-based observations over 69 minutes, and the International Monitoring system detection of the atmospheric impact infrasonic airwaves in a least-squares orbit estimation filter. The combination of these two sources of observations results in a tremendous improvement in the orbit uncertainties. The impact time is 3:05 UT with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 6 min, while the impact location corresponds to a west longitude of 44.7 deg and a latitude of 13.1 deg with a 1-sigma uncertainty of 140 km. The minimum impact energy estimated from the infrasound data and the impact velocity result in an estimated minimum mass of 22.6 t. By propagating the trajectory of 2014 AA backwards we find that the only window for finding precovery observations is for the three days before its discovery.

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arXiv2015

High precision comet trajectory estimates: the Mars flyby of C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)

The Mars flyby of C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) represented a unique opportunity for imaging a long-period comet and resolving its nucleus and rotation period. Because of the small encounter distance and the high relative velocity, the goal of successfully observing C/2013 A1 from the Mars orbiting spacecrafts posed strict accuracy requirements on the comet's ephemerides. These requirements were hard to meet, as comets are known for being highly unpredictable: astrometric observations can be significantly biased and nongravitational perturbations affect comet trajectories. Therefore, even prior to the encounter, we remeasured a couple of hundred astrometric images obtained with ground-based and Earth-orbiting telescopes. We also observed the comet with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on 2014 October 7. In particular, these HiRISE observations were decisive in securing the trajectory and revealed that out-of-plane nongravitational perturbations were larger than previously assumed. Though the resulting ephemeris predictions for the Mars encounter allowed observations of the comet from the Mars orbiting spacecrafts, post-encounter observations show a discrepancy with the pre-encounter trajectory. We reconcile this discrepancy by employing the Rotating Jet Model, which is a higher fidelity model for nongravitational perturbations and provides an estimate of C/2013 A1's spin pole.

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arXiv2015

Systematic ranging and late warning asteroid impacts

We describe systematic ranging, an orbit determination technique especially suitable to assess the near-term Earth impact hazard posed by newly discovered asteroids. For these late warning cases, the time interval covered by the observations is generally short, perhaps a few hours or even less, which leads to severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. The systematic ranging approach gets around these degeneracies by performing a raster scan in the poorly-constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane of sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to identify regions corresponding to collision solutions, as well as potential impact times and locations. From the probability distribution of the observation errors, we obtain a probability distribution in the orbital space and then estimate the probability of an Earth impact. We show how this technique is effective for a number of examples, including 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, the only two asteroids to date discovered prior to impact.

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arXiv2015

The Yarkovsky and YORP Effects

The Yarkovsky effect describes a small but significant force that affects the orbital motion of meteoroids and asteroids smaller than $30-40$ kilometers in diameter. It is caused by sunlight; when these bodies heat up in the Sun, they eventually re-radiate the energy away in the thermal waveband, which in turn creates a tiny thrust. This recoil acceleration is much weaker than solar and planetary gravitational forces, but it can produce measurable orbital changes over decades and substantial orbital effects over millions to billions of years. The same physical phenomenon also creates a thermal torque that, complemented by a torque produced by scattered sunlight, can modify the rotation rates and obliquities of small bodies as well. This rotational variant has been coined the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect. During the past decade or so, the Yarkovsky and YORP effects have been used to explore and potentially resolve a number of unsolved mysteries in planetary science dealing with small bodies. Here we review the main results to date, and preview the goals for future work.

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arXiv2014

Non-gravitational Perturbations and Virtual Impactors: the case of asteroid 2009 FD

Asteroid 2009 FD could impact Earth between 2185 and 2196. The long term propagation to the possible impacts and the intervening planetary encounters make 2009 FD one of the most challenging asteroids in terms of hazard assessment. To compute accurate impact probabilities we model the Yarkovsky effect by using the available physical characterization of 2009 FD and general properties of the Near Earth Asteroid population. We perform the hazard assessment with two independent methods: the first method is a generalization of the standard impact monitoring algorithms in use by NEODyS and Sentry, while the second one is based on a Monte Carlo approach. Both methods generate orbital samples in a 7 dimensional space that includes orbital elements and the parameter characterizing the Yarkovsky effect. The highest impact probability is $2.7 \times 10^{-3}$ for an impact during the 2185 Earth encounter. Impacts after 2185 corresponding to resonant returns are possible, the most relevant being in 2190 with a probability of $3 \times 10^{-4}$. Both numerical methods can be used in the future to handle similar cases. The structure of resonant returns and the list of the possible keyholes on the Target Plane of the scattering encounter in 2185 can be predicted by an analytic theory.

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arXiv2014

Star catalog position and proper motion corrections in asteroid astrometry

We provide a scheme to correct asteroid astrometric observations for star catalog systematic errors due to inaccurate star positions and proper motions. As reference we select the most accurate stars in the PPMXL catalog, i.e., those based on 2MASS astrometry. We compute position and proper motion corrections for 19 of the most used star catalogs. The use of these corrections provides better ephemeris predictions and improves the error statistics of astrometric observations, e.g., by removing most of the regional systematic errors previously seen in Pan-STARRS PS1 asteroid astrometry. The correction table is publicly available at ftp://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/pub/ssd/debias/debias_2014.tgz and can be freely used in orbit determination algorithms to obtain more reliable asteroid trajectories.

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arXiv2014

Physical Properties of Near-Earth Asteroid 2011 MD

We report on observations of near-Earth asteroid 2011 MD with the Spitzer Space Telescope. We have spent 19.9 h of observing time with channel 2 (4.5 μm) of the Infrared Array Camera and detected the target within the 2σ positional uncertainty ellipse. Using an asteroid thermophysical model and a model of nongravitational forces acting upon the object we constrain the physical properties of 2011 MD, based on the measured flux density and available astrometry data. We estimate 2011 MD to be 6 (+4/-2) m in diameter with a geometric albedo of 0.3 (+0.4/-0.2) (uncertainties are 1σ). We find the asteroid's most probable bulk density to be 1.1 (+0.7/-0.5) g cm^{-3}, which implies a total mass of (50-350) t and a macroporosity of >=65%, assuming a material bulk density typical of non-primitive meteorite materials. A high degree of macroporosity suggests 2011 MD to be a rubble-pile asteroid, the rotation of which is more likely to be retrograde than prograde.

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arXiv2014

Constraining the Physical Properties of Near-Earth Object 2009 BD

We report on Spitzer Space Telescope IRAC observations of near-Earth object (NEO) 2009 BD that were carried out in support of the NASA Asteroid Robotic Retrieval Mission (ARRM) concept. We did not detect 2009 BD in 25 hrs of integration at 4.5 micron. Based on an upper-limit flux density determination from our data, we present a probabilistic derivation of the physical properties of this object. The analysis is based on the combination of a thermophysical model with an orbital model accounting for the non-gravitational forces acting upon the body. We find two physically possible solutions. The first solution shows 2009 BD as a 2.9+/-0.3 m diameter rocky body (rho = 2.9+/-0.5 g cm-3) with an extremely high albedo of 0.85(+0.20/-0.10) that is covered with regolith-like material, causing it to exhibit a low thermal inertia (Gamma = 30(+20/-10) SI units). The second solution suggests 2009 BD to be a 4+/-1 m diameter asteroid with pV = 0.45(+0.35/-0.15) that consists of a collection of individual bare rock slabs (Gamma = 2000+/-1000 SI units, rho = 1.7(+0.7/-0.4) g cm-3). We are unable to rule out either solution based on physical reasoning. 2009 BD is the smallest asteroid for which physical properties have been constrained, in this case using an indirect method and based on a detection limit, providing unique information on the physical properties of objects in the size range smaller than 10 m.

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arXiv2013

Assessment of the 2880 impact threat from asteroid (29075) 1950 DA

In this paper we perform an assessment of the 2880 Earth impact risk for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA. To obtain reliable predictions we analyze the contribution of the observational dataset and the astrometric treatment, the numerical error in the long-term integration, and the different accelerations acting on the asteroid. The main source of uncertainty is the Yarkovsky effect, which we statistically model starting from 1950 DA's available physical characterization, astrometry, and dynamical properties. Before the release of 2012 radar data, this modeling suggests that 1950 DA has 99% likelihood of being a retrograde rotator. By using a 7-dimensional Monte Carlo sampling we map 1950 DA's uncertainty region to the 2880 close approach b-plane and find a 5 x 10^-4 impact probability. With the recently released 2012 radar observations, the direct rotation is definitely ruled out and the impact probability decreases to 2.5 x 10^-4.

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arXiv2013

Yarkovsky-driven impact risk analysis for asteroid (99942) Apophis

We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We select those observations with either rigorous uncertainty information provided by the observer or a high established accuracy. For the Yarkovsky effect we perform a Monte Carlo simulation that fully accounts for the uncertainty in the physical characterization, especially for the unknown spin orientation. By mapping the uncertainty information onto the 2029 b-plane and identifying the keyholes corresponding to subsequent impacts we assess the impact risk for future encounters. In particular, we find an impact probability greater than 10^-6 for an impact in 2068. We analyze the stability of the impact probability with respect to the assumptions on Apophis' physical characterization and consider the possible effect of the early 2013 radar apparition.

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arXiv2012

Near Earth Asteroids with measurable Yarkovsky effect

We seek evidence of the Yarkovsky effect among Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by measuring the Yarkovsky-related orbital drift from the orbital fit. To prevent the occurrence of unreliable detections we employ a high precision dynamical model, including the Newtonian attraction of 16 massive asteroids and the planetary relativistic terms, and a suitable astrometric data treatment. We find 21 NEAs whose orbital fits show a measurable orbital drift with a signal to noise ratio (SNR) greater than 3. The best determination is for asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36, resulting in the recovery of one radar apparition and an orbit improvement by two orders of magnitude. In addition, we find 16 cases with a lower SNR that, despite being less reliable, are good candidates for becoming stronger detections in the future. In some cases it is possible to constrain physical quantities otherwise unknown by means of the detected orbital drift. Furthermore, the distribution of the detected orbital drifts shows an excess of retrograde rotators that can be connected to the delivery mechanism from the most important NEA feeding resonances and allows us to infer the distribution for NEAs obliquity. We discuss the implications of the Yarkovsky effect for impact predictions. In particular, for asteroid (29075) 1950 DA our results favor a retrograde rotation that would rule out an impact in 2880.

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arXiv2012

Detection of Semi-Major Axis Drifts in 54 Near-Earth Asteroids: New Measurements of the Yarkovsky Effect

We have identified and quantified semi-major axis drifts in Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by performing orbital fits to optical and radar astrometry of all numbered NEAs. We focus on a subset of 54 NEAs that exhibit some of the most reliable and strongest drift rates. Our selection criteria include a Yarkovsky sensitivity metric that quantifies the detectability of semi-major axis drift in any given data set, a signal-to-noise metric, and orbital coverage requirements. In 42 cases, the observed drifts (~10^-3 AU/Myr) agree well with numerical estimates of Yarkovsky drifts. This agreement suggests that the Yarkovsky effect is the dominant non-gravitational process affecting these orbits, and allows us to derive constraints on asteroid physical properties. In 12 cases, the drifts exceed nominal Yarkovsky predictions, which could be due to inaccuracies in our knowledge of physical properties, faulty astrometry, or modeling errors. If these high rates cannot be ruled out by further observations or improvements in modeling, they would be indicative of the presence of an additional non-gravitational force, such as that resulting from a loss of mass of order a kilogram per second. We define the Yarkovsky efficiency f_Y as the ratio of the change in orbital energy to incident solar radiation energy, and we find that typical Yarkovsky efficiencies are ~10^-5.

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arXiv2008

Diameters and albedos of three sub-kilometer Near Earth Objects derived from Spitzer observations

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are fragments of remnant primitive bodies that date from the era of Solar System formation. At present, the physical properties and origins of NEOs are poorly understood. We have measured thermal emission from three NEOs -- (6037) 1988 EG, 1993 GD, and 2005 GL -- with Spitzer's IRAC instrument at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 microns (the last object was detected only at 5.8 and 8.0 microns). The diameters of these three objects are 400 m, 180 m, and 160 m, respectively, with uncertainties of around 20% (including both observational and systematic errors). For all three the geometric albedos are around 0.30, in agreement with previous results that most NEOs are S-class asteroids. For the two objects detected at 3.6 and 4.5 microns, diameters and albedos based only on those data agree with the values based on modeling the data in all four bands. This agreement, and the high sensitivity of IRAC, show the promise of the Spitzer Warm Mission for determining the physical parameters for a large number of NEOs.

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