arXiv subjects

S. T. McWilliams

Publications and source records attributed to S. T. McWilliams.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Insights into Supermassive Black Hole Mergers from the Gravitational Wave Background

At the Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, participants of the rapid response workshop on the gravitational wave background explored discrepancies between experimental results and theoretical models for a background originating from supermassive black hole binary mergers. Underestimated theoretical and/or experimental uncertainties are likely to be the explanation. Another key focus was the wide variety of search methods for supermassive black hole binaries, with the conclusion that the most compelling detections would involve systems exhibiting both electromagnetic and gravitational wave signatures

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2020

Modeling the uncertainties of solar-system ephemerides for robust gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays

The regularity of pulsar emissions becomes apparent once we reference the pulses' times of arrivals to the inertial rest frame of the solar system. It follows that errors in the determination of Earth's position with respect to the solar-system barycenter can appear as a time-correlated bias in pulsar-timing residual time series, affecting the searches for low-frequency gravitational waves performed with pulsar timing arrays. Indeed, recent array datasets yield different gravitational-wave background upper limits and detection statistics when analyzed with different solar-system ephemerides. Crucially, the ephemerides do not generally provide usable error representations. In this article we describe the motivation, construction, and application of a physical model of solar-system ephemeris uncertainties, which focuses on the degrees of freedom (Jupiter's orbital elements) most relevant to gravitational-wave searches with pulsar timing arrays. This model, BayesEphem, was used to derive ephemeris-robust results in NANOGrav's 11-yr stochastic-background search, and it provides a foundation for future searches by NANOGrav and other consortia. The analysis and simulations reported here suggest that ephemeris modeling reduces the gravitational-wave sensitivity of the 11-yr dataset; and that this degeneracy will vanish with improved ephemerides and with the longer pulsar timing datasets that will become available in the near future.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set: Limits on Gravitational Wave Memory

The mergers of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) promise to be incredible sources of gravitational waves (GWs). While the oscillatory part of the merger gravitational waveform will be outside the frequency sensitivity range of pulsar timing arrays (PTAs), the non-oscillatory GW memory effect is detectable. Further, any burst of gravitational waves will produce GW memory, making memory a useful probe of unmodeled exotic sources and new physics. We searched the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GW memory. This dataset is sensitive to very low frequency GWs of $\sim3$ to $400$ nHz (periods of $\sim11$ yr $-$ $1$ mon). Finding no evidence for GWs, we placed limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events during the observation period. We then used the strain upper limits to place limits on the rate of GW memory causing events. At a strain of $2.5\times10^{-14}$, corresponding to the median upper limit as a function of source sky position, we set a limit on the rate of GW memory events at $<0.4$ yr$^{-1}$. That strain corresponds to a SMBHB merger with reduced mass of $ηM \sim 2\times10^{10}M_\odot$ and inclination of $ι=π/3$ at a distance of 1 Gpc. As a test of our analysis, we analyzed the NANOGrav 9-year data set as well. This analysis found an anomolous signal, which does not appear in the 11-year data set. This signal is not a GW, and its origin remains unknown.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set: Evolution of Gravitational Wave Background Statistics

An ensemble of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries should produce a stochastic background of very low frequency gravitational waves. This stochastic background is predicted to be a power law, with a spectral index of -2/3, and it should be detectable by a network of precisely timed millisecond pulsars, widely distributed on the sky. This paper reports a new "time slicing" analysis of the 11-year data release from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) using 34 millisecond pulsars. Methods to flag potential "false positive" signatures are developed, including techniques to identify responsible pulsars. Mitigation strategies are then presented. We demonstrate how an incorrect noise model can lead to spurious signals, and show how independently modeling noise across 30 Fourier components, spanning NANOGrav's frequency range, effectively diagnoses and absorbs the excess power in gravitational-wave searches. This results in a nominal, and expected, progression of our gravitational-wave statistics. Additionally we show that the first interstellar medium event in PSR J1713+0747 pollutes the common red noise process with low-spectral index noise, and use a tailored noise model to remove these effects.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2019

The NANOGrav 11-Year Data Set: Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Observations indicate that nearly all galaxies contain supermassive black holes (SMBHs) at their centers. When galaxies merge, their component black holes form SMBH binaries (SMBHBs), which emit low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) that can be detected by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). We have searched the recently-released North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) 11-year data set for GWs from individual SMBHBs in circular orbits. As we did not find strong evidence for GWs in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strength of GWs from such sources as a function of GW frequency and sky location. We placed a sky-averaged upper limit on the GW strain of $h_0 < 7.3(3) \times 10^{-15}$ at $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz. We also developed a technique to determine the significance of a particular signal in each pulsar using ``dropout' parameters as a way of identifying spurious signals in measurements from individual pulsars. We used our upper limits on the GW strain to place lower limits on the distances to individual SMBHBs. At the most-sensitive sky location, we ruled out SMBHBs emitting GWs with $f_\mathrm{gw}= 8$ nHz within 120 Mpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^9 \, M_\odot$, and within 5.5 Gpc for $\mathcal{M} = 10^{10} \, M_\odot$. We also determined that there are no SMBHBs with $\mathcal{M} > 1.6 \times 10^9 \, M_\odot$ emitting GWs in the Virgo Cluster. Finally, we estimated the number of potentially detectable sources given our current strain upper limits based on galaxies in Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) and merger rates from the Illustris cosmological simulation project. Only 34 out of 75,000 realizations of the local Universe contained a detectable source, from which we concluded it was unsurprising that we did not detect any individual sources given our current sensitivity to GWs.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2018

Studying the solar system with the International Pulsar Timing Array

Pulsar-timing analyses are sensitive to errors in the solar-system ephemerides (SSEs) that timing models utilise to estimate the location of the solar-system barycentre, the quasi-inertial reference frame to which all recorded pulse times-of-arrival are referred. Any error in the SSE will affect all pulsars, therefore pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are a suitable tool to search for such errors and impose independent constraints on relevant physical parameters. We employ the first data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array to constrain the masses of the planet-moons systems and to search for possible unmodelled objects (UMOs) in the solar system. We employ ten SSEs from two independent research groups, derive and compare mass constraints of planetary systems, and derive the first PTA mass constraints on asteroid-belt objects. Constraints on planetary-system masses have been improved by factors of up to 20 from the previous relevant study using the same assumptions, with the mass of the Jovian system measured at 9.5479189(3)$\times10^{-4}$ $M_{\odot}$. The mass of the dwarf planet Ceres is measured at 4.7(4)$\times10^{-10}$ $M_{\odot}$. We also present the first sensitivity curves using real data that place generic limits on the masses of UMOs, which can also be used as upper limits on the mass of putative exotic objects. For example, upper limits on dark-matter clumps are comparable to published limits using independent methods. While the constraints on planetary masses derived with all employed SSEs are consistent, we note and discuss differences in the associated timing residuals and UMO sensitivity curves.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2018

The NANOGrav 11-year Data Set: Pulsar-timing Constraints On The Stochastic Gravitational-wave Background

We search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) in the newly released $11$-year dataset from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). While we find no significant evidence for a GWB, we place constraints on a GWB from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, cosmic strings, and a primordial GWB. For the first time, we find that the GWB upper limits and detection statistics are sensitive to the Solar System ephemeris (SSE) model used, and that SSE errors can mimic a GWB signal. We developed an approach that bridges systematic SSE differences, producing the first PTA constraints that are robust against SSE uncertainties. We thus place a $95\%$ upper limit on the GW strain amplitude of $A_\mathrm{GWB}<1.45\times 10^{-15}$ at a frequency of $f=1$ yr$^{-1}$ for a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ power-law spectrum, and with inter-pulsar correlations modeled. This is a factor of $\sim 2$ improvement over the NANOGrav $9$-year limit, calculated using the same procedure. Previous PTA upper limits on the GWB will need revision in light of SSE systematic uncertainties. We use our constraints to characterize the combined influence on the GWB of the stellar mass-density in galactic cores, the eccentricity of SMBH binaries, and SMBH--galactic-bulge scaling relationships. We constrain cosmic-string tension using recent simulations, yielding an SSE-marginalized $95\%$ upper limit on the cosmic string tension of $Gμ< 5.3\times 10^{-11}$---a factor of $\sim 2$ better than the published NANOGrav $9$-year constraints. Our SSE-marginalized $95\%$ upper limit on the energy density of a primordial GWB (for a radiation-dominated post-inflation Universe) is $Ω_\mathrm{GWB}(f)h^2<3.4\times10^{-10}$.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2016

From Spin Noise to Systematics: Stochastic Processes in the First International Pulsar Timing Array Data Release

We analyse the stochastic properties of the 49 pulsars that comprise the first International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) data release. We use Bayesian methodology, performing model selection to determine the optimal description of the stochastic signals present in each pulsar. In addition to spin-noise and dispersion-measure (DM) variations, these models can include timing noise unique to a single observing system, or frequency band. We show the improved radio-frequency coverage and presence of overlapping data from different observing systems in the IPTA data set enables us to separate both system and band-dependent effects with much greater efficacy than in the individual PTA data sets. For example, we show that PSR J1643$-$1224 has, in addition to DM variations, significant band-dependent noise that is coherent between PTAs which we interpret as coming from time-variable scattering or refraction in the ionised interstellar medium. Failing to model these different contributions appropriately can dramatically alter the astrophysical interpretation of the stochastic signals observed in the residuals. In some cases, the spectral exponent of the spin noise signal can vary from 1.6 to 4 depending upon the model, which has direct implications for the long-term sensitivity of the pulsar to a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background. By using a more appropriate model, however, we can greatly improve a pulsar's sensitivity to GWs. For example, including system and band-dependent signals in the PSR J0437$-$4715 data set improves the upper limit on a fiducial GW background by $\sim 60\%$ compared to a model that includes DM variations and spin-noise only.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

The International Pulsar Timing Array: First Data Release

The highly stable spin of neutron stars can be exploited for a variety of (astro-)physical investigations. In particular arrays of pulsars with rotational periods of the order of milliseconds can be used to detect correlated signals such as those caused by gravitational waves. Three such "Pulsar Timing Arrays" (PTAs) have been set up around the world over the past decades and collectively form the "International" PTA (IPTA). In this paper, we describe the first joint analysis of the data from the three regional PTAs, i.e. of the first IPTA data set. We describe the available PTA data, the approach presently followed for its combination and suggest improvements for future PTA research. Particular attention is paid to subtle details (such as underestimation of measurement uncertainty and long-period noise) that have often been ignored but which become important in this unprecedentedly large and inhomogeneous data set. We identify and describe in detail several factors that complicate IPTA research and provide recommendations for future pulsar timing efforts. The first IPTA data release presented here (and available online) is used to demonstrate the IPTA's potential of improving upon gravitational-wave limits placed by individual PTAs by a factor of ~2 and provides a 2-sigma limit on the dimensionless amplitude of a stochastic GWB of 1.7x10^{-15} at a frequency of 1 yr^{-1}. This is 1.7 times less constraining than the limit placed by (Shannon et al. 2015), due mostly to the more recent, high-quality data they used.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Observations, Arrival Time Measurements, and Analysis of 37 Millisecond Pulsars

We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or "red," timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2015

Detecting eccentric supermassive black hole binaries with pulsar timing arrays: Resolvable source strategies

The couplings between supermassive black-hole binaries and their environments within galactic nuclei have been well studied as part of the search for solutions to the final parsec problem. The scattering of stars by the binary or the interaction with a circumbinary disk may efficiently drive the system to sub-parsec separations, allowing the binary to enter a regime where the emission of gravitational waves can drive it to merger within a Hubble time. However, these interactions can also affect the orbital parameters of the binary. In particular, they may drive an increase in binary eccentricity which survives until the system's gravitational-wave signal enters the pulsar-timing array band. Therefore, if we can measure the eccentricity from observed signals, we can potentially deduce some of the properties of the binary environment. To this end, we build on previous techniques to present a general Bayesian pipeline with which we can detect and estimate the parameters of an eccentric supermassive black-hole binary system with pulsar-timing arrays. Additionally, we generalize the pulsar-timing array $\mathcal{F}_e$-statistic to eccentric systems, and show that both this statistic and the Bayesian pipeline are robust when studying circular or arbitrarily eccentric systems. We explore how eccentricity influences the detection prospects of single gravitational-wave sources, as well as the detection penalty incurred by employing a circular waveform template to search for eccentric signals, and conclude by identifying important avenues for future study.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2015

NANOGrav Constraints on Gravitational Wave Bursts with Memory

Among efforts to detect gravitational radiation, pulsar timing arrays are uniquely poised to detect "memory" signatures, permanent perturbations in spacetime from highly energetic astrophysical events such as mergers of supermassive black hole binaries. The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) observes dozens of the most stable millisecond pulsars using the Arecibo and Green Bank radio telescopes in an effort to study, among other things, gravitational wave memory. We herein present the results of a search for gravitational wave bursts with memory (BWMs) using the first five years of NANOGrav observations. We develop original methods for dramatically speeding up searches for BWM signals. In the directions of the sky where our sensitivity to BWMs is best, we would detect mergers of binaries with reduced masses of $10^9$ $M_\odot$ out to distances of 30 Mpc; such massive mergers in the Virgo cluster would be marginally detectable. We find no evidence for BWMs. However, with our non-detection, we set upper limits on the rate at which BWMs of various amplitudes could have occurred during the time spanned by our data--e.g., BWMs with amplitudes greater than $10^{-13}$ must occur at a rate less than 1.5 yr$^{-1}$.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2014

NANOGrav Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Circular Orbits

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project currently observes 43 pulsars using the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes. In this work we use a subset of 17 pulsars timed for a span of roughly five years (2005--2010). We analyze these data using standard pulsar timing models, with the addition of time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-variable pulse shape terms. Within the timing data, we perform a search for continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries in circular orbits using robust frequentist and Bayesian techniques. We find that there is no evidence for the presence of a detectable continuous gravitational wave; however, we can use these data to place the most constraining upper limits to date on the strength of such gravitational waves. Using the full 17 pulsar dataset we place a 95% upper limit on the sky-averaged strain amplitude of $h_0\lesssim 3.8\times 10^{-14}$ at a frequency of 10 nHz. Furthermore, we place 95% \emph{all sky} lower limits on the luminosity distance to such gravitational wave sources finding that the $d_L \gtrsim 425$ Mpc for sources at a frequency of 10 nHz and chirp mass $10^{10}{\rm M}_{\odot}$. We find that for gravitational wave sources near our best timed pulsars in the sky, the sensitivity of the pulsar timing array is increased by a factor of $\sim$4 over the sky-averaged sensitivity. Finally we place limits on the coalescence rate of the most massive supermassive black hole binaries.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2009

LISA parameter estimation using numerical merger waveforms

Recent advances in numerical relativity provide a detailed description of the waveforms of coalescing massive black hole binaries (MBHBs), expected to be the strongest detectable LISA sources. We present a preliminary study of LISA's sensitivity to MBHB parameters using a hybrid numerical/analytic waveform for equal-mass, non-spinning holes. The Synthetic LISA software package is used to simulate the instrument response and the Fisher information matrix method is used to estimate errors in the parameters. Initial results indicate that inclusion of the merger signal can significantly improve the precision of some parameter estimates. For example, the median parameter errors for an ensemble of systems with total redshifted mass of one million Solar masses at a redshift of one were found to decrease by a factor of slightly more than two for signals with merger as compared to signals truncated at the Schwarzchild ISCO.

astro-ph↗