arXiv subjects

Sabrina Guastavino

Publications and source records attributed to Sabrina Guastavino.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Weighted Score-Oriented Losses for Temporally Localized Event Prediction

Operational event-detection systems are rarely assessed by pointwise accuracy alone. In anomaly detection, changepoint detection, and warning systems, the utility of an alarm depends on its temporal position relative to an event. This produces a score-loss mismatch. Neural networks are commonly trained with classical loss functions, such as cross-entropy, whereas deployment decisions are obtained by thresholding network predictions, merging alarms through post-processing rules, and evaluating them with event-based metrics defined by detection windows and false-alarm costs. This paper studies a temporally localized specialization of weighted score-oriented loss (wSOL) for event prediction. Starting from score-oriented losses based on expected confusion matrices and from the weighted SOL framework of Marchetti et al., we consider temporal weights that discount near-event false positives and reduce false-negative penalties when an event is preceded by an admissible alarm. The resulting objective is differentiable with respect to the network predictions, and therefore can be optimized by back-propagation. It can be instantiated with balanced accuracy, true skill statistic, F1, critical success index, and related confusion-matrix scores. We evaluate the proposed approach by comparing cross-entropy, unweighted score-oriented loss, and wSOL on three benchmark datasets for time-series event prediction and detection. The results show that wSOL can improve performance when the evaluation utility is localized in time and is not already encoded by the pointwise labels.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Weak convergence rates for spectral regularization via sampling inequalities

Convergence rates in spectral regularization methods quantify the approximation error in inverse problems as a function of the noise level or the number of sampling points. Classical strong convergence rate results typically rely on source conditions, which are essential for estimating the truncation error. However, in the framework of kernel approximation, the truncation error in the case of Tikhonov regularization can be characterized entirely through sampling inequalities, without invoking source conditions. In this paper, we first generalize sampling inequalities to spectral regularization, and then, by exploiting the connection between inverse problems and kernel approximation, we derive weak convergence rate bounds for inverse problems, independently of source conditions. These weak convergence rates are established and analyzed when the forward operator is compact and uniformly bounded, or the kernel operator is of trace class.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Multiclass threshold-based classification

In this paper, we introduce a threshold-based framework for multiclass classification that generalizes the standard argmax rule. This is done by replacing the probabilistic interpretation of softmax outputs with a geometric one on the multidimensional simplex, where the classification depends on a multidimensional threshold. This change of perspective enables for any trained classification network an a posteriori optimization of the classification score by means of threshold tuning, as usually carried out in the binary setting. This allows a further refinement of the prediction capability of any network. Moreover, this multidimensional threshold-based setting makes it possible to define score-oriented losses, which are based on the interpretation of the threshold as a random variable. Our experiments show that the multidimensional threshold tuning yields consistent performance improvements across various networks and datasets, and that the proposed multiclass score-oriented losses are competitive with standard loss functions, resembling the advantages observed in the binary case.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

The Multiclass Score-Oriented Loss (MultiSOL) on the Simplex

In the supervised binary classification setting, score-oriented losses have been introduced with the aim of optimizing a chosen performance metric directly during the training phase, thus avoiding \textit{a posteriori} threshold tuning. To do this, in their construction, the decision threshold is treated as a random variable provided with a certain \textit{a priori} distribution. In this paper, we use a recently introduced multidimensional threshold-based classification framework to extend such score-oriented losses to multiclass classification, defining the Multiclass Score-Oriented Loss (MultiSOL) functions. As also demonstrated by several classification experiments, this proposed family of losses is designed to preserve the main advantages observed in the binary setting, such as the direct optimization of the target metric and the robustness to class imbalance, achieving performance comparable to other state-of-the-art loss functions and providing new insights into the interaction between simplex geometry and score-oriented learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Multiclass threshold-based classification and model evaluation

In this paper, we introduce a threshold-based framework for multiclass classification that generalizes the standard argmax rule. This is done by replacing the probabilistic interpretation of softmax outputs with a geometric one on the multidimensional simplex, where the classification depends on a multidimensional threshold. This change of perspective enables for any trained classification network an \textit{a posteriori} optimization of the classification score by means of threshold tuning, as usually carried out in the binary setting, thus allowing for a further refinement of the prediction capability of any network. Our experiments show indeed that multidimensional threshold tuning yields performance improvements across various networks and datasets. Moreover, we derive a multiclass ROC analysis based on \emph{ROC clouds} -- the attainable (FPR,TPR) operating points induced by a single multiclass threshold -- and summarize them via a \emph{Distance From Point} (DFP) score to $(0,1)$. This yields a coherent alternative to standard One-vs-Rest (OvR) curves and aligns with the observed tuning gains.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Feature Understanding and Sparsity Enhancement via 2-Layered kernel machines (2L-FUSE)

We propose a novel sparsity enhancement strategy for regression tasks, based on learning a data-adaptive kernel metric, i.e., a shape matrix, through 2-Layered kernel machines. The resulting shape matrix, which defines a Mahalanobis-type deformation of the input space, is then factorized via an eigen-decomposition, allowing us to identify the most informative directions in the space of features. This data-driven approach provides a flexible, interpretable and accurate feature reduction scheme. Numerical experiments on synthetic and applications to real datasets of geomagnetic storms demonstrate that our approach achieves minimal yet highly informative feature sets without losing predictive performance.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

AI-based modular warning machine for risk identification in proximity healthcare

"DHEAL-COM - Digital Health Solutions in Community Medicine" is a research and technology project funded by the Italian Department of Health for the development of digital solutions of interest in proximity healthcare. The activity within the DHEAL-COM framework allows scientists to gather a notable amount of multi-modal data whose interpretation can be performed by means of machine learning algorithms. The present study illustrates a general automated pipeline made of numerous unsupervised and supervised methods that can ingest such data, provide predictive results, and facilitate model interpretations via feature identification.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Physics-informed features in supervised machine learning

Supervised machine learning involves approximating an unknown functional relationship from a limited dataset of features and corresponding labels. The classical approach to feature-based machine learning typically relies on applying linear regression to standardized features, without considering their physical meaning. This may limit model explainability, particularly in scientific applications. This study proposes a physics-informed approach to feature-based machine learning that constructs non-linear feature maps informed by physical laws and dimensional analysis. These maps enhance model interpretability and, when physical laws are unknown, allow for the identification of relevant mechanisms through feature ranking. The method aims to improve both predictive performance in regression tasks and classification skill scores by integrating domain knowledge into the learning process, while also enabling the potential discovery of new physical equations within the context of explainable machine learning.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Artificial Intelligence Could Have Predicted All Space Weather Events Associated with the May 2024 Superstorm

Space weather, driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), poses significant risks to technological systems. Accurately forecasting these events and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere remains a challenge because of the complexity of solar-terrestrial interactions. This study applied artificial intelligence (AI) to predict the chain of events associated with the May $2024$ superstorm, including solar flares from NOAA active region 13644, Earth-directed CMEs, and a violent geomagnetic storm. Using magnetogram cut-outs, a Vision Transformer was able to classify the evolution of the active region morphologies, and a video-based deep learning method predicted the occurrence of solar flares; a physics-driven model improved the precision of CME travel-time prediction using coronal observations and solar wind measurements; and a data-driven method exploited these in situ measurements to sound alerts of the geomagnetic storm unrolled over time. The results showed unprecedented accuracy in predicting CME arrival with uncertainty as small as one minute. Moreover, these AI models outperformed traditional methods in predicting solar flares occurrences, onset, and recovery phases of the geomagnetic storm. These findings highlight the impressive potential of AI for space weather forecasting and as a tool to mitigate the impact of extreme solar events on critical infrastructure.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Deep Learning for Active Region Classification: A Systematic Study from Convolutional Neural Networks to Vision Transformers

A solar active region can significantly disrupt the Sun Earth space environment, often leading to severe space weather events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections. As a consequence, the automatic classification of active region groups is the crucial starting point for accurately and promptly predicting solar activity. This study presents our results concerned with the application of deep learning techniques to the classification of active region cutouts based on the Mount Wilson classification scheme. Specifically, we have explored the latest advancements in image classification architectures, from Convolutional Neural Networks to Vision Transformers, and reported on their performances for the active region classification task, showing that the crucial point for their effectiveness consists in a robust training process based on the latest advances in the field.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Multimodal Flare Forecasting with Deep Learning

Solar flare forecasting mainly relies on photospheric magnetograms and associated physical features to predict forthcoming flares. However, it is believed that flare initiation mechanisms often originate in the chromosphere and the lower corona. In this study, we employ deep learning as a purely data-driven approach to compare the predictive capabilities of chromospheric and coronal UV and EUV emissions across different wavelengths with those of photospheric line-of-sight magnetograms. Our findings indicate that individual EUV wavelengths can provide discriminatory power comparable or better to that of line-of-sight magnetograms. Moreover, we identify simple multimodal neural network architectures that consistently outperform single-input models, showing complementarity between the flare precursors that can be extracted from the distinct layers of the solar atmosphere. To mitigate potential biases from known misattributions in Active Region flare catalogs, our models are trained and evaluated using full-disk images and a comprehensive flare event catalog at the full-disk level. We introduce a deep-learning architecture suited for extracting temporal features from full-disk videos.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Extended Drag-Based Model for better predicting the evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections

The solar wind drag-based model is a widely used framework for predicting the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) through interplanetary space. This model primarily considers the aerodynamic drag exerted by the solar wind on CMEs. However, factors like magnetic forces, pressure gradients, and the internal dynamics within CMEs justify the need of introducing an additional small-scale acceleration term in the game. Indeed, by accounting for this extra acceleration, the extended drag-based model is shown to offer improved accuracy in describing the evolution of CMEs through the heliosphere and, in turn, in forecasting CME trajectories and arrival times at Earth. This enhancement is crucial for better predicting Space Weather events and mitigating their potential impacts on space-based and terrestrial technologies.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Forecasting Geoffective Events from Solar Wind Data and Evaluating the Most Predictive Features through Machine Learning Approaches

This study addresses the prediction of geomagnetic disturbances by exploiting machine learning techniques. Specifically, the Long-Short Term Memory recurrent neural network, which is particularly suited for application over long time series, is employed in the analysis of in-situ measurements of solar wind plasma and magnetic field acquired over more than one solar cycle, from $2005$ to $2019$, at the Lagrangian point L$1$. The problem is approached as a binary classification aiming to predict one hour in advance a decrease in the SYM-H geomagnetic activity index below the threshold of $-50$ nT, which is generally regarded as indicative of magnetospheric perturbations. The strong class imbalance issue is tackled by using an appropriate loss function tailored to optimize appropriate skill scores in the training phase of the neural network. Beside classical skill scores, value-weighted skill scores are then employed to evaluate predictions, suitable in the study of problems, such as the one faced here, characterized by strong temporal variability. For the first time, the content of magnetic helicity and energy carried by solar transients, associated with their detection and likelihood of geo-effectiveness, were considered as input features of the network architecture. Their predictive capabilities are demonstrated through a correlation-driven feature selection method to rank the most relevant characteristics involved in the neural network prediction model. The optimal performance of the adopted neural network in properly forecasting the onset of geomagnetic storms, which is a crucial point for giving real warnings in an operational setting, is finally showed.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Greedy feature selection: Classifier-dependent feature selection via greedy methods

The purpose of this study is to introduce a new approach to feature ranking for classification tasks, called in what follows greedy feature selection. In statistical learning, feature selection is usually realized by means of methods that are independent of the classifier applied to perform the prediction using that reduced number of features. Instead, greedy feature selection identifies the most important feature at each step and according to the selected classifier. In the paper, the benefits of such scheme are investigated theoretically in terms of model capacity indicators, such as the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension or the kernel alignment, and tested numerically by considering its application to the problem of predicting geo-effective manifestations of the active Sun.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

AI-FLARES: Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data

AI-FLARES (Artificial Intelligence for the Analysis of Solar Flares Data) is a research project funded by the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica within the framework of the ``Attività di Studio per la Comunità Scientifica Nazionale Sole, Sistema Solare ed Esopianeti'' program. The topic addressed by this project was the development and use of computational methods for the analysis of remote sensing space data associated to solar flare emission. This paper overviews the main results obtained by the project, with specific focus on solar flare forecasting, reconstruction of morphologies of the flaring sources, and interpretation of acceleration mechanisms triggered by solar flares.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

A comprehensive theoretical framework for the optimization of neural networks classification performance with respect to weighted metrics

In many contexts, customized and weighted classification scores are designed in order to evaluate the goodness of the predictions carried out by neural networks. However, there exists a discrepancy between the maximization of such scores and the minimization of the loss function in the training phase. In this paper, we provide a complete theoretical setting that formalizes weighted classification metrics and then allows the construction of losses that drive the model to optimize these metrics of interest. After a detailed theoretical analysis, we show that our framework includes as particular instances well-established approaches such as classical cost-sensitive learning, weighted cross entropy loss functions and value-weighted skill scores.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Physics-driven machine learning for the prediction of coronal mass ejections' travel times

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) correspond to dramatic expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are scientifically relevant because they are involved in the physical mechanisms characterizing the active Sun. However, more recently CMEs have attracted attention for their impact on space weather, as they are correlated to geomagnetic storms and may induce the generation of Solar Energetic Particles streams. In this space weather framework, the present paper introduces a physics-driven artificial intelligence (AI) approach to the prediction of CMEs travel time, in which the deterministic drag-based model is exploited to improve the training phase of a cascade of two neural networks fed with both remote sensing and in-situ data. This study shows that the use of physical information in the AI architecture significantly improves both the accuracy and the robustness of the travel time prediction.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

STIX imaging I -- Concept

Aims. To provide a schematic mathematical description of the imaging concept of the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on board Solar Orbiter. The derived model is the fundamental starting point for both the interpretation of STIX data and the description of the data calibration process. Methods. We describe the STIX indirect imaging technique which is based on spatial modulation of the X-ray photon flux by means of tungsten grids. We show that each of 30 STIX imaging sub-collimators measures a complex Fourier component of the flaring X-ray source corresponding to a specific angular frequency. We also provide details about the count distribution model, which describes the relationship between the photon flux and the measured pixel counts. Results. We define the image reconstruction problem for STIX from both visibilities and photon counts. We provide an overview of the algorithms implemented for the solution of the imaging problem, and a comparison of the results obtained with these different methods in the case of the SOL2022-03-31T18 flaring event.

astro-ph.IM↗