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Salil Mahajan

Publications and source records attributed to Salil Mahajan.

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Exploring coupled tropical Pacific variability within a Multi-branch $β$-Variational Autoencoder

This study explores what is encoded in the latent space of a multi-branch $β$-variational autoencoder ($β$-VAE) trained on coupled tropical Pacific climate fields. We assess the reconstruction skill and physical interpretability of the latent space trained on monthly sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, and outgoing longwave radiation across the tropical Pacific from a 500-year preindustrial control simulation. The model generalizes well, with only modest degradation from training to test performance, and preserves the dominant basin-scale structure of all three fields. Latent-space diagnostics show that variability is organized unevenly across dimensions: sea surface temperature is concentrated in a smaller subset of latent dimensions, whereas ocean heat content and outgoing longwave radiation are more broadly distributed across multiple dimensions. Comparisons with conventional tropical Pacific diagnostics further show that several latent dimensions align with known El Niño and La Niña variability, while others capture related coupled ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal or longer timescales. Sensitivity experiments and latent traversals identify dimensions associated with eastern-Pacific-like, central-Pacific-like, coastal, subsurface-dominant, and atmosphere-dominant variability. Together, these results show that the multi-branch $β$-variational autoencoder yields a skillful and physically informative reduced representation of coupled tropical Pacific variability.

physics.ao-ph

Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of Weather and Climate Models

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy and improve the quantification of forecast uncertainty. Developed initially for numerical weather prediction, the inclusion of stochastic parameterizations not only provides better estimates of uncertainty, but it is also extremely promising for reducing longstanding climate biases and relevant for determining the climate response to external forcing. This article highlights recent developments from different research groups which show that the stochastic representation of unresolved processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and cryosphere of comprehensive weather and climate models (a) gives rise to more reliable probabilistic forecasts of weather and climate and (b) reduces systematic model bias. We make a case that the use of mathematically stringent methods for the derivation of stochastic dynamic equations will lead to substantial improvements in our ability to accurately simulate weather and climate at all scales. Recent work in mathematics, statistical mechanics and turbulence is reviewed, its relevance for the climate problem demonstrated, and future research directions outlined.

physics.ao-ph