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Sam Ganzfried

Publications and source records attributed to Sam Ganzfried.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2021

Algorithm for Computing Approximate Nash Equilibrium in Continuous Games with Application to Continuous Blotto

Successful algorithms have been developed for computing Nash equilibrium in a variety of finite game classes. However, solving continuous games -- in which the pure strategy space is (potentially uncountably) infinite -- is far more challenging. Nonetheless, many real-world domains have continuous action spaces, e.g., where actions refer to an amount of time, money, or other resource that is naturally modeled as being real-valued as opposed to integral. We present a new algorithm for {approximating} Nash equilibrium strategies in continuous games. In addition to two-player zero-sum games, our algorithm also applies to multiplayer games and games with imperfect information. We experiment with our algorithm on a continuous imperfect-information Blotto game, in which two players distribute resources over multiple battlefields. Blotto games have frequently been used to model national security scenarios and have also been applied to electoral competition and auction theory. Experiments show that our algorithm is able to quickly compute close approximations of Nash equilibrium strategies for this game.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2021

Computing Nash Equilibria in Multiplayer DAG-Structured Stochastic Games with Persistent Imperfect Information

Many important real-world settings contain multiple players interacting over an unknown duration with probabilistic state transitions, and are naturally modeled as stochastic games. Prior research on algorithms for stochastic games has focused on two-player zero-sum games, games with perfect information, and games with imperfect-information that is local and does not extend between game states. We present an algorithm for approximating Nash equilibrium in multiplayer general-sum stochastic games with persistent imperfect information that extends throughout game play. We experiment on a 4-player imperfect-information naval strategic planning scenario. Using a new procedure, we are able to demonstrate that our algorithm computes a strategy that closely approximates Nash equilibrium in this game.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2020

Parallel Algorithm for Approximating Nash Equilibrium in Multiplayer Stochastic Games with Application to Naval Strategic Planning

Many real-world domains contain multiple agents behaving strategically with probabilistic transitions and uncertain (potentially infinite) duration. Such settings can be modeled as stochastic games. While algorithms have been developed for solving (i.e., computing a game-theoretic solution concept such as Nash equilibrium) two-player zero-sum stochastic games, research on algorithms for non-zero-sum and multiplayer stochastic games is limited. We present a new algorithm for these settings, which constitutes the first parallel algorithm for multiplayer stochastic games. We present experimental results on a 4-player stochastic game motivated by a naval strategic planning scenario, showing that our algorithm is able to quickly compute strategies constituting Nash equilibrium up to a very small degree of approximation error.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2020

Prediction of Bayesian Intervals for Tropical Storms

Building on recent research for prediction of hurricane trajectories using recurrent neural networks (RNNs), we have developed improved methods and generalized the approach to predict Bayesian intervals in addition to simple point estimates. Tropical storms are capable of causing severe damage, so accurately predicting their trajectories can bring significant benefits to cities and lives, especially as they grow more intense due to climate change effects. By implementing the Bayesian interval using dropout in an RNN, we improve the actionability of the predictions, for example by estimating the areas to evacuate in the landfall region. We used an RNN to predict the trajectory of the storms at 6-hour intervals. We used latitude, longitude, windspeed, and pressure features from a Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) dataset of about 500 tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean. Our results show how neural network dropout values affect predictions and intervals.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2020

Most Important Fundamental Rule of Poker Strategy

Poker is a large complex game of imperfect information, which has been singled out as a major AI challenge problem. Recently there has been a series of breakthroughs culminating in agents that have successfully defeated the strongest human players in two-player no-limit Texas hold 'em. The strongest agents are based on algorithms for approximating Nash equilibrium strategies, which are stored in massive binary files and unintelligible to humans. A recent line of research has explored approaches for extrapolating knowledge from strong game-theoretic strategies that can be understood by humans. This would be useful when humans are the ultimate decision maker and allow humans to make better decisions from massive algorithmically-generated strategies. Using techniques from machine learning we have uncovered a new simple, fundamental rule of poker strategy that leads to a significant improvement in performance over the best prior rule and can also easily be applied by human players.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2019

Mistakes in Games

We define a new concept of "mistake" strategies and actions for strategic-form and extensive-form games, analyze the relationship to prior main game-theoretic solution concepts, study algorithms for computation, and explore practicality. This concept has potential applications to cybersecurity, for example detecting whether a human player is illegally using real-time assistance in games like poker.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2019

Optimization-Based Algorithm for Evolutionarily Stable Strategies against Pure Mutations

Evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is an important solution concept in game theory which has been applied frequently to biological models. Informally an ESS is a strategy that if followed by the population cannot be taken over by a mutation strategy that is initially rare. Finding such a strategy has been shown to be difficult from a theoretical complexity perspective. We present an algorithm for the case where mutations are restricted to pure strategies, and present experiments on several game classes including random and a recently-proposed cancer model. Our algorithm is based on a mixed-integer non-convex feasibility program formulation, which constitutes the first general optimization formulation for this problem. It turns out that the vast majority of the games included in the experiments contain ESS with small support, and our algorithm is outperformed by a support-enumeration based approach. However we suspect our algorithm may be useful in the future as games are studied that have ESS with potentially larger and unknown support size.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2018

Optimal Number of Choices in Rating Contexts

In many settings people must give numerical scores to entities from a small discrete set. For instance, rating physical attractiveness from 1--5 on dating sites, or papers from 1--10 for conference reviewing. We study the problem of understanding when using a different number of options is optimal. We consider the case when scores are uniform random and Gaussian. We study computationally when using 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 options out of a total of 100 is optimal in these models (though our theoretical analysis is for a more general setting with $k$ choices from $n$ total options as well as a continuous underlying space). One may expect that using more options would always improve performance in this model, but we show that this is not necessarily the case, and that using fewer choices---even just two---can surprisingly be optimal in certain situations. While in theory for this setting it would be optimal to use all 100 options, in practice this is prohibitive, and it is preferable to utilize a smaller number of options due to humans' limited computational resources. Our results could have many potential applications, as settings requiring entities to be ranked by humans are ubiquitous. There could also be applications to other fields such as signal or image processing where input values from a large set must be mapped to output values in a smaller set.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2018

Predicting Hurricane Trajectories using a Recurrent Neural Network

Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their trajectory paths is critical to reduce economic loss and save human lives. Given the complexity and nonlinearity of weather data, a recurrent neural network (RNN) could be beneficial in modeling hurricane behavior. We propose the application of a fully connected RNN to predict the trajectory of hurricanes. We employed the RNN over a fine grid to reduce typical truncation errors. We utilized their latitude, longitude, wind speed, and pressure publicly provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to predict the trajectory of a hurricane at 6-hour intervals. Results show that this proposed technique is competitive to methods currently employed by the NHC and can predict up to approximately 120 hours of hurricane path.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2018

Bayesian Opponent Exploitation in Imperfect-Information Games

Two fundamental problems in computational game theory are computing a Nash equilibrium and learning to exploit opponents given observations of their play (opponent exploitation). The latter is perhaps even more important than the former: Nash equilibrium does not have a compelling theoretical justification in game classes other than two-player zero-sum, and for all games one can potentially do better by exploiting perceived weaknesses of the opponent than by following a static equilibrium strategy throughout the match. The natural setting for opponent exploitation is the Bayesian setting where we have a prior model that is integrated with observations to create a posterior opponent model that we respond to. The most natural, and a well-studied prior distribution is the Dirichlet distribution. An exact polynomial-time algorithm is known for best-responding to the posterior distribution for an opponent assuming a Dirichlet prior with multinomial sampling in normal-form games; however, for imperfect-information games the best known algorithm is based on approximating an infinite integral without theoretical guarantees. We present the first exact algorithm for a natural class of imperfect-information games. We demonstrate that our algorithm runs quickly in practice and outperforms the best prior approaches. We also present an algorithm for the uniform prior setting.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2018

Successful Nash Equilibrium Agent for a 3-Player Imperfect-Information Game

Creating strong agents for games with more than two players is a major open problem in AI. Common approaches are based on approximating game-theoretic solution concepts such as Nash equilibrium, which have strong theoretical guarantees in two-player zero-sum games, but no guarantees in non-zero-sum games or in games with more than two players. We describe an agent that is able to defeat a variety of realistic opponents using an exact Nash equilibrium strategy in a 3-player imperfect-information game. This shows that, despite a lack of theoretical guarantees, agents based on Nash equilibrium strategies can be successful in multiplayer games after all.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2017

Optimal Weighting for Exam Composition

A problem faced by many instructors is that of designing exams that accurately assess the abilities of the students. Typically these exams are prepared several days in advance, and generic question scores are used based on rough approximation of the question difficulty and length. For example, for a recent class taught by the author, there were 30 multiple choice questions worth 3 points, 15 true/false with explanation questions worth 4 points, and 5 analytical exercises worth 10 points. We describe a novel framework where algorithms from machine learning are used to modify the exam question weights in order to optimize the exam scores, using the overall class grade as a proxy for a student's true ability. We show that significant error reduction can be obtained by our approach over standard weighting schemes, and we make several new observations regarding the properties of the "good" and "bad" exam questions that can have impact on the design of improved future evaluation methods.

cs.CY↗
arXiv2017

Computing Human-Understandable Strategies

Algorithms for equilibrium computation generally make no attempt to ensure that the computed strategies are understandable by humans. For instance the strategies for the strongest poker agents are represented as massive binary files. In many situations, we would like to compute strategies that can actually be implemented by humans, who may have computational limitations and may only be able to remember a small number of features or components of the strategies that have been computed. We study poker games where private information distributions can be arbitrary. We create a large training set of game instances and solutions, by randomly selecting the information probabilities, and present algorithms that learn from the training instances in order to perform well in games with unseen information distributions. We are able to conclude several new fundamental rules about poker strategy that can be easily implemented by humans.

cs.GT↗
arXiv2016

Computing Strong Game-Theoretic Strategies in Jotto

We develop a new approach that computes approximate equilibrium strategies in Jotto, a popular word game. Jotto is an extremely large two-player game of imperfect information; its game tree has many orders of magnitude more states than games previously studied, including no-limit Texas hold 'em. To address the fact that the game is so large, we propose a novel strategy representation called oracular form, in which we do not explicitly represent a strategy, but rather appeal to an oracle that quickly outputs a sample move from the strategy's distribution. Our overall approach is based on an extension of the fictitious play algorithm to this oracular setting. We demonstrate the superiority of our computed strategies over the strategies computed by a benchmark algorithm, both in terms of head-to-head and worst-case performance.

cs.GT↗