arXiv subjects

Sam Grunblatt

Publications and source records attributed to Sam Grunblatt.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2023

Overfitting Affects the Reliability of Radial Velocity Mass Estimates of the V1298 Tau Planets

Mass, radius, and age measurements of young (<100 Myr) planets have the power to shape our understanding of planet formation. However, young stars tend to be extremely variable in both photometry and radial velocity, which makes constraining these properties challenging. The V1298 Tau system of four ~0.5 Rjup planets transiting a pre-main sequence star presents an important, if stress-inducing, opportunity to directly observe and measure the properties of infant planets. Su\'arez-Mascare\~no et al. (2021) published radial-velocity-derived masses for two of the V1298 Tau planets using a state-of-the-art Gaussian Process regression framework. The planetary densities computed from these masses were surprisingly high, implying extremely rapid contraction after formation in tension with most existing planet formation theories. In an effort to further constrain the masses of the V1298 Tau planets, we obtained 36 RVs using Keck/HIRES, and analyzed them in concert with published RVs and photometry. Through performing a suite of cross validation tests, we found evidence that the preferred model of SM21 suffers from overfitting, defined as the inability to predict unseen data, rendering the masses unreliable. We detail several potential causes of this overfitting, many of which may be important for other RV analyses of other active stars, and recommend that additional time and resources be allocated to understanding and mitigating activity in active young stars such as V1298 Tau.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2022

The Possible Tidal Demise of Kepler's First Planetary System

We present evidence of tidally-driven inspiral in the Kepler-1658 (KOI-4) system, which consists of a giant planet (1.1$R_\mathrm{J}$, 5.9$M_\mathrm{J}$) orbiting an evolved host star (2.9$R_\odot$, 1.5$M_\odot$). Using transit timing measurements from Kepler, Palomar/WIRC, and TESS, we show that the orbital period of Kepler-1658b appears to be decreasing at a rate $\dot{P} = 131_{-22}^{+20}$~ms~yr$^{-1}$, corresponding to an infall timescale $P/\dot{P}\approx2.5$~Myr. We consider other explanations for the data including line-of-sight acceleration and orbital precession, but find them to be implausible. The observed period derivative implies a tidal quality factor $Q_\star' = 2.50_{-0.62}^{+0.85}\times10^4$, in good agreement with theoretical predictions for inertial wave dissipation in subgiant stars. Additionally, while it probably cannot explain the entire inspiral rate, a small amount of planetary dissipation could naturally explain the deep optical eclipse observed for the planet via enhanced thermal emission. As the first evolved system with detected inspiral, Kepler-1658 is a new benchmark for understanding tidal physics at the end of the planetary life cycle.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2021

TESS asteroseismology of the Kepler red giants

Red giant asteroseismology can provide valuable information for studying the Galaxy as demonstrated by space missions like CoRoT and Kepler. However, previous observations have been limited to small data sets and fields-of-view. The TESS mission provides far larger samples and, for the first time, the opportunity to perform asteroseimic inference from full-frame images full-sky, instead of narrow fields and pre-selected targets. Here, we seek to detect oscillations in TESS data of the red giants in the Kepler field using the 4-yr Kepler results as benchmark. Because we use 1-2 sectors of observation, our results are representative of the typical scenario from TESS data. We detect clear oscillations in ~3000 stars with another ~1000 borderline (low S/N) cases. In comparison, best-case predictions suggests ~4500 detectable oscillating giants. Of the clear detections, we measure Dnu in 570 stars, meaning a ~20% Dnu yield (14% for one sector and 26% for two sectors). These yields imply that typical (1-2 sector) TESS data will result in significant detection biases. Hence, to boost the number of stars, one might need to use only Numax as the seismic input for stellar property estimation. However, we find little bias in the seismic measurements and typical scatter is about 5-6% in Numax and 2-3% in Dnu. These values, coupled with typical uncertainties in parallax, Teff, and [Fe/H] in a grid-based approach, would provide internal uncertainties of 3% in inferred stellar radius, 6% in mass and 20% in age for low-luminosity giant stars. Finally, we find red giant seismology is not significantly affected by seismic signal confusion from blending for stars with Tmag < 12.5.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Astraea: Predicting Long Rotation Periods with 27-Day Light Curves

The rotation periods of planet-hosting stars can be used for modeling and mitigating the impact of magnetic activity in radial velocity measurements and can help constrain the high-energy flux environment and space weather of planetary systems. Millions of stars and thousands of planet hosts are observed with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). However, most will only be observed for 27 contiguous days in a year, making it difficult to measure rotation periods with traditional methods. This is especially problematic for field M dwarfs, which are ideal candidates for exoplanet searches, but which tend to have periods in excess of the 27-day observing baseline. We present a new tool, Astraea, for predicting long rotation periods from short-duration light curves combined with stellar parameters from Gaia DR2. Using Astraea, we can predict the rotation periods from Kepler 4-year light curves with 13% uncertainty overall (and a 9% uncertainty for periods > 30 days). By training on 27-day Kepler light curve segments, Astraea can predict rotation periods up to 150 days with 9% uncertainty (5% for periods > 30 days). After training this tool on these 27-day Kepler light curve segments, we applied \texttt{Astraea} to real TESS data. For the 195 stars that were observed by both Kepler and TESS, we were able to predict the rotation periods with 55% uncertainty despite the wild differences in systematics.

astro-ph.SR↗