arXiv subjects

Samaya Nissanke

Publications and source records attributed to Samaya Nissanke.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

The ORCA-TWIN qCMOS Experiment I. Science case and commissioning at Calar Alto Observatory

We describe a pilot study to explore a new generation of fast and low noise CMOS image sensors for time domain astronomy, using two remote telescopes with a baseline of 1635 km. The experiment involves direct imaging with novel qCMOS image sensor technology that combines fast readout with sub-electron readout noise. Moreover, synchronized observations from two remote telescope sites will be used to explore new approaches for measuring Solar System bodies, precision stellar photometry, and speckle imaging. A fast-track installation of an ORCA-Quest2 camera at the Calar Alto Observatory 1.23m telescope has demonstrated the potential of the qCMOS technology for time domain astronomy. Numerical simulations suggest that owing to sub-electron readout noise, qCMOS sensors outperform classical CCDs for high-cadence imaging on 1m-class telescopes. The small penalty for post-readout binning, that is almost insignificant in comparison to higher readout noise detectors, opens interesting applications for scene-dependent data processing in direct imaging, and potentially even for spectroscopy.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Rapid and robust simulation-based inference for kilonovae

With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is time-consuming and relies on explicit likelihood approximations that can break down when modeling uncertainties are significant. We develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for kilonova parameter estimation using density-estimation likelihood-free inference. The framework uses a Gaussian process emulator trained on $\sim 1300$ POSSIS simulations. We demonstrate that SBI provides a rapid alternative to MCMC that is robust to likelihood misspecification. The standard Gaussian likelihood approximation fails to capture the non-Gaussian, correlated structure of emulator uncertainty; SBI learns this structure directly from forward simulations. Simulation studies show that the SBI method accurately recovers injected parameters, while the MCMC suffers from systematic bias caused by likelihood misspecification. This problem persists when analyzing AT2017gfo, where a subset of the MCMC posteriors pile up at prior boundaries and the SBI posteriors do not. The SBI framework infers a total ejecta mass of $\sim 0.087 M_{\odot}$ dominated by lanthanide-poor ejecta and excludes toroidal and peanut ejecta geometries at the 99th percentile for both components. The SBI framework generates $\sim 2 \times 10^{4}$ posterior samples in seconds.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

One Merge to Rule Them All: From Galaxy Interactions to Black Hole Mergers Using Horizon-AGN

Galaxy mergers are fundamental drivers of galaxy evolution and black hole (BH) growth across cosmic time. We use the Horizon-AGN simulation to investigate the fraction of galaxy pairs, the merger fraction, and the galaxy merger rate over a wide range of stellar masses and redshifts. To identify physically connected pairs, we adapt the Matthews Correlation coefficient (MCC) framework, optimizing thresholds in projected distance and redshift difference, and compare our selection to commonly used criteria in the literature. We then connect the derived galaxy merger rates to supermassive BH mergers, tracking the evolution from galaxy interactions to BH coalescences, thereby reconstructing the full merger history. We find that the galaxy pair fraction, merger fraction, characteristic timescale, and merger rate all evolve strongly with both stellar mass and redshift, with higher-mass galaxies and earlier galaxies showing elevated merger activity. BHs exhibit a similar evolutionary trend, with the volume-averaged BH merger rate peaking around cosmic noon ($z\sim2\mbox{--}3$). Our results demonstrate a close correspondence between galaxy and BH cosmic histories. This work provides a comprehensive, simulation-based framework for linking galaxy and BH merger populations, and offers refined selection criteria for future observational studies, for forecasts of gravitational wave detections with LISA, and interpretation of Pulsar Timing Array results.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2026

Insights from GRBs for optical follow-up of gravitational wave counterparts

Identifying the electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave sources is vital to enabling the myriad of investigations possible with multimessenger astronomy. However, locating faint, fast-varying transients within large localisations remains challenging given the uncertainty in their detailed properties. In this work, we investigate how the nearby merger-induced GRBs would be localised by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA detector network during the fifth gravitational wave observing run (O5) and assess whether their optical counterparts could be detected using gravitational wave localisations alone, without additional localisation from gamma-ray instruments. Counterpart detectability is evaluated using the observed optical afterglow lightcurves of these GRBs and the distance-scaled lightcurve of the kilonova AT2017gfo as a fiducial template. We find that such events can be localised to comparatively small regions of the sky, often only a few to tens of square degrees. As a result, counterparts are detectable by at least one of the available optical telescopes during O5. However, detectability depends strongly on observational depth, as the counterparts are fainter than $22$ mag within a day. Facilities capable of reaching depths of $\gtrsim23$ mag therefore play a key role in recovering these faint counterparts. These results indicate that for such events during O5, the primary challenge for multimessenger discovery will be in achieving sufficient observational depth and reliably identifying the true counterpart among unrelated transients rather than gravitational wave localisation itself.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Particle Physics and Gravitational Waves as complementary windows on the Universe

Particle physics and gravitational waves provide complementary probes of the deep structure of the Universe. Gravitational waves from the mergers of neutron stars and black holes are sensitive to the structure of dense quark matter and to different dark matter scenarios. Measurements of stochastic gravitational waves backgrounds can teach us about possible first order phase transitions in the early Universe, including providing sensitivity to the TeV scale which is of key interest to future particle collider experiments. Gravitational waves measurements will also give new probes of the evolution and expansion of the Universe, complementary to measurements with electromagnetic radiation. This Perspectives article explores the physics synergies between the science opportunities provided by next generation gravitational waves measurements and particle physics experiments. Gravitational waves can also probe deep into the early Universe reaching physics much above possible collider energies if the signals can be detected.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

A NICER View of PSR J0030+0451: Updated Constraints from Six Years of NICER Observations

Pulse-profile modeling of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars targeted by NICER has enabled mass--radius constraints of several neutron star sources, with implications for the dense-matter equation of state. For the bright isolated pulsar PSR J0030+0451, the inferred mass--radius was previously found to depend strongly on the assumed hot spot model. These hot-spot models yielded different mass--radius constraints, with the statistically preferred model exhibiting some mild tension with results inferred for PSR J0437$-$4715, PSR~J0614$-$3329, and GW170817. We present an updated pulse-profile analysis of PSR J0030+0451 using new NICER observations obtained between 2017 July to 2023 January, increasing the number of X-ray counts by about 50% compared to previous analyses. We jointly analyze the NICER data with archival XMM-Newton observations to better constrain the source spectrum and background. The new analysis significantly reduces the discrepancy between the hot spot models. The inferred mass and radius are $M = 1.43^{+0.20}_{-0.17}\,M_\odot$ and $R_{\rm eq} = 12.68^{+1.31}_{-1.04}$ km (68% credible intervals), reducing the tension with the results from other sources. In addition, the inferred hot spot configurations suggest the presence of intra-spot temperature gradients.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

ESO Expanding Horizon White Paper: Revealing the properties of matter at supranuclear densities with gravitational waves

Understanding dense matter under extreme conditions is one of the most fundamental puzzles in modern physics. Complex interactions give rise to emergent, collective phenomena. While nuclear experiments and Earth - based colliders provide valuable insights, much of the quantum chromodynamics phase diagram at high density and low temperature remains accessible only through astrophysical observations of neutron stars, neutron star mergers, and stellar collapse. Astronomical observations thus offer a direct window to the physics on subatomic scales with gravitational waves presenting an especially clean channel. Next-generation gravitational - wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope, would serve as unparalleled instruments to transform our understanding of neutron star matter. They will enable the detection of up to tens of thousands of binary neutron star and neutron star - black hole mergers per year, a dramatic increase over the few events accessible with current detectors. They will provide an unprecedented precision in probing cold, dense matter during the binary inspiral, exceeding by at least an order of magnitude what current facilities can achieve. Moreover, these observatories will allow us to explore uncharted regimes of dense matter at finite temperatures produced in a subset of neutron star mergers, areas that remain entirely inaccessible to current instruments. Together with multimessenger observations, these measurements will significantly deepen our knowledge of dense nuclear matter.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

The final stages of binary evolution using multi-messenger studies

Ultracompact Galactic binaries with orbital periods below an hour are among the strongest persistent gravitational-wave (GW) sources in the mHz band and will constitute the dominant population detected by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Tens of thousands are predicted to be individually resolved, with a substantial fraction bright enough for electromagnetic (EM) follow-up. This opens an unprecedented multi-messenger window on compact binary evolution, tidal interactions, mass transfer, and the progenitors of Type Ia supernovae. We highlight key science enabled by joint GW + EM constraints and emphasize the critical need for rapid, high-cadence spectroscopic capabilities in the 2040s. In particular, the most compact (<10 min) binaries detected by LISA will require read-noise-free, zero-dead-time spectroscopic facilities, potentially realized through coordinated arrays of telescopes with time-staggered exposures, to measure radial velocities, tidal heating signatures, and orbital evolution with the precision needed for transformative multi-messenger studies.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

The supernova Ia progenitor problem in the 2040s

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are fundamental to cosmology and galactic chemical evolution, yet the nature of their progenitor systems remains unresolved. Multiple evolutionary pathways, including single-degenerate, double-degenerate, and helium-donor systems, are thought to contribute to the SN Ia population, but direct observational constraints are limited. This uncertainty hampers our understanding of SN Ia diversity and introduces systematic uncertainties in their use as precision cosmological probes. By the 2040s, surveys such as Gaia, LSST, SDSS-V, 4MOST, and the gravitational-wave mission LISA will identify thousands of compact binaries in the Milky Way that are potential SN Ia progenitors. However, survey discoveries alone are insufficient. Robust identification and characterization require high-time-resolution, phase-resolved spectroscopy to determine fundamental parameters such as component masses, orbital inclinations, chemical compositions, and accretion states. Addressing these challenges demands new observational capabilities. The most compact binaries require continuous, dead-time-free spectroscopy with negligible readout noise, while the progenitor population spans a wide range of brightness and orbital periods. A modular, multi-aperture telescope array equipped with fast, low-noise spectrographs can flexibly combine collecting area for faint targets, observe bright systems efficiently, and deliver uninterrupted time series through staggered exposures. Such observations are difficult for single-aperture facilities.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

GRBs and Relativistic Transients in the 2040s

Relativistic transients such as gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), jetted tidal disruption events, luminous fast blue optical transients, and fast X-ray transients, represent the brightest explosions in the Universe and serve dual roles as laboratories for extreme physics and as cosmic lighthouses probing the earliest epochs of the Universe. The 2040s will bring transformative capabilities: wide-field optical surveys discovering tens of thousands of optical transients nightly, proposed high-energy missions like THESEUS providing 10-100x improved high-energy monitoring, and third-generation gravitational wave detectors identifying $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ compact object mergers annually, many accompanied by relativistic jets. This industrial-scale discovery rate will enable population studies addressing fundamental questions such as jet launching mechanisms, nucleosynthesis, the first stars, and how progenitor environments shape these transients across cosmic time. However, realizing this science requires overcoming a critical bottleneck: these transients evolve on timescales of seconds to days, with their physics encoded in rapidly-changing multi-wavelength signatures demanding immediate spectroscopic characterization down to m ~ 25. Current facilities, optimized for classical/queue scheduling, do not provide the rapid, flexible, multi-target response necessary for industrial-scale follow-up. This white paper demonstrates that without a dedicated large-aperture (10-30 m effective collecting area) time-domain facility with robotic scheduling and optical-NIR spectroscopic capabilities, the transformative potential of relativistic transient science in the 2040s will be considerably limited.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

Multi-messenger and time-domain astronomy in the 2040s

Multi-messenger astronomy will be transformed in the 2040s by an unprecedented volume of detections from next-generation gravitational wave, high-energy, and ultra-high energy neutrino, cosmic ray, and time domain observatories. This white paper, prepared for the European Southern Observatory (ESO) Expanding Horizons call, outlines the key science questions enabled by this emerging multi-messenger ecosystem, ranging from nucleosynthesis and dense matter physics to cosmology, fundamental physics, and the growth of black holes across cosmic time. We demonstrate that fully exploiting these discoveries requires a step change in optical to near infrared spectroscopic capability, including low latency response, high throughput, and flexible time domain operations across both hemispheres. We argue that without a dedicated large-aperture time domain facility, the scientific return of multi-messenger astronomy in the 2040s will be considerably limited.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2025

ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz) and S250818k: A Candidate Superkilonova from a Sub-threshold Sub-Solar Gravitational Wave Trigger

On August 18, 2025, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration reported gravitational waves from a sub-threshold binary neutron star merger. If astrophysical, this event would have a surprisingly low chirp mass, suggesting that at least one neutron star was below a solar mass. The Zwicky Transient Facility mapped the coarse localization and discovered a transient, ZTF25abjmnps (AT2025ulz), that was spatially and temporally coincident with the gravitational wave trigger. The first week of follow-up suggested properties reminiscent of a GW170817-like kilonova. Subsequent follow-up suggests properties most similar to a young, stripped-envelope, Type IIb supernova. Although we cannot statistically rule out chance coincidence, we undertake due diligence analysis to explore the possible association between ZTF25abjmnps and S250818k. Theoretical models have been proposed wherein sub-solar neutron star(s) may form (and subsequently merge) via accretion disk fragmentation or core fission inside a core-collapse supernova i.e. a ``superkilonova". Here, we qualitatively discuss our multi-wavelength dataset in the context of the superkilonova picture. Future higher significance gravitational wave detections of sub-solar neutron star mergers with extensive electromagnetic follow-up would conclusively resolve this tantalizing multi-messenger association.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2025

The impact of binary neutron star outflow mass models on kilonova parameter estimation

The ejecta from binary neutron star mergers, which powers its associated kilonova, can inform us about source properties, merger dynamics, and the dense nuclear matter equation of state. While now in the era of multi-messenger astronomy, we remain more likely to observe purely electromagnetic (or purely gravitational-wave) signals due to the duty cycle and maximum observing distance of gravitational wave detectors. It is thus imperative to be able to perform high-accuracy parameter inference of purely electromagnetic detections. Here, we use a collection of ejecta formulae in an end-to-end analysis to generate mock multi-wavelength kilonova signals and recover the intrinsic merger parameters. By generating mock light curves for a broad range of possible mergers and with a variety of ejecta models, and then performing parameter estimation with different ejecta models, we measure how reliably and consistently we can use the 'map' between intrinsic and outflow properties provided by the formulae to gain source (intrinsic) information from purely electromagnetic detections (observables). We find that the posteriors probability densities are prone to biases when we vary the choice of reference model for our sampler, especially away from the best studied region of the binary parameter space, i.e. near equal mass, low mass binaries. This highlights both the need for improved models for the mass of the ejecta, and the need to exert caution when performing parameter estimation with a single mass model. We also find that most models predict that parameter degeneracies in kilonova light curves are largely orthogonal to those measurement observables, such as the chirp mass, from gravitational wave signals, indicating that kilonovae may provide a lot of additional information even in multi-messenger observations, if better modeled.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2024

Black Holes Inside and Out 2024: visions for the future of black hole physics

The gravitational physics landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by our ability to study strong-field regions, in particular black holes. Black Holes Inside and Out gathered world experts to discuss the status of the field and prospects ahead. We hope that the ideas and perspectives are a source of inspiration. Structure: Black Hole Evaporation - 50 Years by William Unruh The Stability Problem for Extremal Black Holes by Mihalis Dafermos The Entropy of Black Holes by Robert M. Wald The Non-linear Regime of Gravity by Luis Lehner Black Holes Galore in D > 4 by Roberto Emparan Same as Ever: Looking for (In)variants in the Black Holes Landscape by Carlos A. R. Herdeiro Black Holes, Cauchy Horizons, and Mass Inflation by Matt Visser The Backreaction Problem for Black Holes in Semiclassical Gravity by Adrian del Rio Black Holes Beyond General Relativity by Enrico Barausse and Jutta Kunz Black Holes as Laboratories: Searching for Ultralight Fields by Richard Brito Primordial Black Holes from Inflation by Misao Sasaki Tests of General Relativity with Future Detectors by Emanuele Berti Black Holes as Laboratories: Tests of General Relativity by Ruth Gregory and Samaya Nissanke Simulating Black Hole Imposters by Frans Pretorius Black Hole Spectroscopy: Status Report by Gregorio Carullo VLBI as a Precision Strong Gravity Instrument by Paul Tiede Testing the nature of compact objects and the black hole paradigm by Mariafelicia De Laurentis and Paolo Pani Some Thoughts about Black Holes in Asymptotic Safety by Alessia Platania Black Hole Evaporation in Loop Quantum Gravity by Abhay Ashtekar How the Black Hole Puzzles are Resolved in String Theory by Samir D. Mathur Quantum Black Holes: From Regularization to Information Paradoxes by Niayesh Afshordi and Stefano Liberati

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Peregrine: Sequential simulation-based inference for gravitational wave signals

The current and upcoming generations of gravitational wave experiments represent an exciting step forward in terms of detector sensitivity and performance. For example, key upgrades at the LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA facilities will see the next observing run (O4) probe a spatial volume around four times larger than the previous run (O3), and design implementations for e.g. the Einstein Telescope, Cosmic Explorer and LISA experiments are taking shape to explore a wider frequency range and probe cosmic distances. In this context, however, a number of very real data analysis problems face the gravitational wave community. For example, it will be crucial to develop tools and strategies to analyse (amongst other scenarios) signals that arrive coincidentally in detectors, longer signals that are in the presence of non-stationary noise or other shorter transients, as well as noisy, potentially correlated, coherent stochastic backgrounds. With these challenges in mind, we develop peregrine, a new sequential simulation-based inference approach designed to study broad classes of gravitational wave signal. In this work, we describe the method and implementation, before demonstrating its accuracy and robustness through direct comparison with established likelihood-based methods. Specifically, we show that we are able to fully reconstruct the posterior distributions for every parameter of a spinning, precessing compact binary coalescence using one of the most physically detailed and computationally expensive waveform approximants (SEOBNRv4PHM). Crucially, we are able to do this using only 2% of the waveform evaluations that are required in e.g. nested sampling approaches. Finally, we provide some outlook as to how this level of simulation efficiency and flexibility in the statistical analysis could allow peregrine to tackle these current and future gravitational wave data analysis problems.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2024

Science with the Daksha High Energy Transients Mission

We present the science case for the proposed Daksha high energy transients mission. Daksha will comprise of two satellites covering the entire sky from 1~keV to $>1$~MeV. The primary objectives of the mission are to discover and characterize electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational wave source; and to study Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). Daksha is a versatile all-sky monitor that can address a wide variety of science cases. With its broadband spectral response, high sensitivity, and continuous all-sky coverage, it will discover fainter and rarer sources than any other existing or proposed mission. Daksha can make key strides in GRB research with polarization studies, prompt soft spectroscopy, and fine time-resolved spectral studies. Daksha will provide continuous monitoring of X-ray pulsars. It will detect magnetar outbursts and high energy counterparts to Fast Radio Bursts. Using Earth occultation to measure source fluxes, the two satellites together will obtain daily flux measurements of bright hard X-ray sources including active galactic nuclei, X-ray binaries, and slow transients like Novae. Correlation studies between the two satellites can be used to probe primordial black holes through lensing. Daksha will have a set of detectors continuously pointing towards the Sun, providing excellent hard X-ray monitoring data. Closer to home, the high sensitivity and time resolution of Daksha can be leveraged for the characterization of Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2023

What to do when things get crowded? Scalable joint analysis of overlapping gravitational wave signals

The gravitational wave sky is starting to become very crowded, with the fourth science run (O4) at LIGO expected to detect $\mathcal{O}(100)$ compact object coalescence signals. Data analysis issues start to arise as we look further forwards, however. In particular, as the event rate increases in e.g. next generation detectors, it will become increasingly likely that signals arrive in the detector coincidentally, eventually becoming the dominant source class. It is known that current analysis pipelines will struggle to deal with this scenario, predominantly due to the scaling of traditional methods such as Monte Carlo Markov Chains and nested sampling, where the time difference between analysing a single signal and multiple can be as significant as days to months. In this work, we argue that sequential simulation-based inference methods can solve this problem by breaking the scaling behaviour. Specifically, we apply an algorithm known as (truncated marginal) neural ratio estimation (TMNRE), implemented in the code peregrine and based on swyft. To demonstrate its applicability, we consider three case studies comprising two overlapping, spinning, and precessing binary black hole systems with merger times separated by 0.05 s, 0.2 s, and 0.5 s. We show for the first time that we can recover, with full precision (as quantified by a comparison to the analysis of each signal independently), the posterior distributions of all 30 model parameters in a full joint analysis. Crucially, we achieve this with only $\sim 15\%$ of the waveform evaluations that would be needed to analyse even a single signal with traditional methods.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2022

Self-Interacting Gravitational Atoms in the Strong-Gravity Regime

We numerically investigate free and self-interacting ultralight scalar fields around black holes in General Relativity. We focus on complex scalar fields $Φ$ whose self-interactions are described by the quartic potential $V \propto λ|Φ|^4$, and ignore the black hole spin in order to disentangle the effects of self interactions on the boson cloud. Using the spectral solver Kadath, we compute quasi-equilibrium configurations of the dominant eigenstates, including their backreaction on the spacetime metric. For scenarios with $- 10^{-2} \lesssim λ\lesssim 10^{-2}$ we find the mass of the self-interacting scalar cloud to be up to $\sim 70\%$ larger than that of a free scalar cloud, though the additional backreaction effect on the spacetime metric is only up to $\sim 1\%$ due to the low-density nature of the bosonic configurations. In this region of parameter space we observe approximate quadratic scalings between the mass of the cloud with $λ$, the scalar field amplitude, and the couplings between these two parameters. For systems with $λ$ beyond this range, the eigenfrequencies differ sufficiently from the known free-test-field values used as inputs in our numerical setup to make the results, though convergent, physically unreliable. This bounds the range of $λ$ in which the free scalar field solution remains a good approximation to self-interacting scalar field configurations. Our work is among the first nonperturbative explorations of self-interacting bosonic clouds around black holes, yielding detailed new insights into such systems in the nonlinear regime, while also overcoming technical challenges and quantifying limitations. Additionally, our results provide useful inputs for fully dynamical numerical relativity simulations and for future explorations of spinning black holes and real scalar fields.

gr-qc↗