arXiv subjects

Samuel B. Hopkins

Publications and source records attributed to Samuel B. Hopkins.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2022

The Franz-Parisi Criterion and Computational Trade-offs in High Dimensional Statistics

Many high-dimensional statistical inference problems are believed to possess inherent computational hardness. Various frameworks have been proposed to give rigorous evidence for such hardness, including lower bounds against restricted models of computation (such as low-degree functions), as well as methods rooted in statistical physics that are based on free energy landscapes. This paper aims to make a rigorous connection between the seemingly different low-degree and free-energy based approaches. We define a free-energy based criterion for hardness and formally connect it to the well-established notion of low-degree hardness for a broad class of statistical problems, namely all Gaussian additive models and certain models with a sparse planted signal. By leveraging these rigorous connections we are able to: establish that for Gaussian additive models the "algebraic" notion of low-degree hardness implies failure of "geometric" local MCMC algorithms, and provide new low-degree lower bounds for sparse linear regression which seem difficult to prove directly. These results provide both conceptual insights into the connections between different notions of hardness, as well as concrete technical tools such as new methods for proving low-degree lower bounds.

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arXiv2022

Efficient Mean Estimation with Pure Differential Privacy via a Sum-of-Squares Exponential Mechanism

We give the first polynomial-time algorithm to estimate the mean of a $d$-variate probability distribution with bounded covariance from $\tilde{O}(d)$ independent samples subject to pure differential privacy. Prior algorithms for this problem either incur exponential running time, require $Ω(d^{1.5})$ samples, or satisfy only the weaker concentrated or approximate differential privacy conditions. In particular, all prior polynomial-time algorithms require $d^{1+Ω(1)}$ samples to guarantee small privacy loss with "cryptographically" high probability, $1-2^{-d^{Ω(1)}}$, while our algorithm retains $\tilde{O}(d)$ sample complexity even in this stringent setting. Our main technique is a new approach to use the powerful Sum of Squares method (SoS) to design differentially private algorithms. SoS proofs to algorithms is a key theme in numerous recent works in high-dimensional algorithmic statistics -- estimators which apparently require exponential running time but whose analysis can be captured by low-degree Sum of Squares proofs can be automatically turned into polynomial-time algorithms with the same provable guarantees. We demonstrate a similar proofs to private algorithms phenomenon: instances of the workhorse exponential mechanism which apparently require exponential time but which can be analyzed with low-degree SoS proofs can be automatically turned into polynomial-time differentially private algorithms. We prove a meta-theorem capturing this phenomenon, which we expect to be of broad use in private algorithm design. Our techniques also draw new connections between differentially private and robust statistics in high dimensions. In particular, viewed through our proofs-to-private-algorithms lens, several well-studied SoS proofs from recent works in algorithmic robust statistics directly yield key components of our differentially private mean estimation algorithm.

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arXiv2022

A Robust Spectral Algorithm for Overcomplete Tensor Decomposition

We give a spectral algorithm for decomposing overcomplete order-4 tensors, so long as their components satisfy an algebraic non-degeneracy condition that holds for nearly all (all but an algebraic set of measure $0$) tensors over $(\mathbb{R}^d)^{\otimes 4}$ with rank $n \le d^2$. Our algorithm is robust to adversarial perturbations of bounded spectral norm. Our algorithm is inspired by one which uses the sum-of-squares semidefinite programming hierarchy (Ma, Shi, and Steurer STOC'16, arXiv:1610.01980), and we achieve comparable robustness and overcompleteness guarantees under similar algebraic assumptions. However, our algorithm avoids semidefinite programming and may be implemented as a series of basic linear-algebraic operations. We consequently obtain a much faster running time than semidefinite programming methods: our algorithm runs in time $\tilde O(n^2d^3) \le \tilde O(d^7)$, which is subquadratic in the input size $d^4$ (where we have suppressed factors related to the condition number of the input tensor).

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arXiv2021

Matrix Discrepancy from Quantum Communication

We develop a novel connection between discrepancy minimization and (quantum) communication complexity. As an application, we resolve a substantial special case of the Matrix Spencer conjecture. In particular, we show that for every collection of symmetric $n \times n$ matrices $A_1,\ldots,A_n$ with $\|A_i\| \leq 1$ and $\|A_i\|_F \leq n^{1/4}$ there exist signs $x \in \{ \pm 1\}^n$ such that the maximum eigenvalue of $\sum_{i \leq n} x_i A_i$ is at most $O(\sqrt n)$. We give a polynomial-time algorithm based on partial coloring and semidefinite programming to find such $x$. Our techniques open a new avenue to use tools from communication complexity and information theory to study discrepancy. The proof of our main result combines a simple compression scheme for transcripts of repeated (quantum) communication protocols with quantum state purification, the Holevo bound from quantum information, and tools from sketching and dimensionality reduction. Our approach also offers a promising avenue to resolve the Matrix Spencer conjecture completely -- we show it is implied by a natural conjecture in quantum communication complexity.

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arXiv2021

Statistical Query Algorithms and Low-Degree Tests Are Almost Equivalent

Researchers currently use a number of approaches to predict and substantiate information-computation gaps in high-dimensional statistical estimation problems. A prominent approach is to characterize the limits of restricted models of computation, which on the one hand yields strong computational lower bounds for powerful classes of algorithms and on the other hand helps guide the development of efficient algorithms. In this paper, we study two of the most popular restricted computational models, the statistical query framework and low-degree polynomials, in the context of high-dimensional hypothesis testing. Our main result is that under mild conditions on the testing problem, the two classes of algorithms are essentially equivalent in power. As corollaries, we obtain new statistical query lower bounds for sparse PCA, tensor PCA and several variants of the planted clique problem.

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arXiv2021

Robust and Heavy-Tailed Mean Estimation Made Simple, via Regret Minimization

We study the problem of estimating the mean of a distribution in high dimensions when either the samples are adversarially corrupted or the distribution is heavy-tailed. Recent developments in robust statistics have established efficient and (near) optimal procedures for both settings. However, the algorithms developed on each side tend to be sophisticated and do not directly transfer to the other, with many of them having ad-hoc or complicated analyses. In this paper, we provide a meta-problem and a duality theorem that lead to a new unified view on robust and heavy-tailed mean estimation in high dimensions. We show that the meta-problem can be solved either by a variant of the Filter algorithm from the recent literature on robust estimation or by the quantum entropy scoring scheme (QUE), due to Dong, Hopkins and Li (NeurIPS '19). By leveraging our duality theorem, these results translate into simple and efficient algorithms for both robust and heavy-tailed settings. Furthermore, the QUE-based procedure has run-time that matches the fastest known algorithms on both fronts. Our analysis of Filter is through the classic regret bound of the multiplicative weights update method. This connection allows us to avoid the technical complications in previous works and improve upon the run-time analysis of a gradient-descent-based algorithm for robust mean estimation by Cheng, Diakonikolas, Ge and Soltanolkotabi (ICML '20).

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arXiv2020

Estimating Rank-One Spikes from Heavy-Tailed Noise via Self-Avoiding Walks

We study symmetric spiked matrix models with respect to a general class of noise distributions. Given a rank-1 deformation of a random noise matrix, whose entries are independently distributed with zero mean and unit variance, the goal is to estimate the rank-1 part. For the case of Gaussian noise, the top eigenvector of the given matrix is a widely-studied estimator known to achieve optimal statistical guarantees, e.g., in the sense of the celebrated BBP phase transition. However, this estimator can fail completely for heavy-tailed noise. In this work, we exhibit an estimator that works for heavy-tailed noise up to the BBP threshold that is optimal even for Gaussian noise. We give a non-asymptotic analysis of our estimator which relies only on the variance of each entry remaining constant as the size of the matrix grows: higher moments may grow arbitrarily fast or even fail to exist. Previously, it was only known how to achieve these guarantees if higher-order moments of the noises are bounded by a constant independent of the size of the matrix. Our estimator can be evaluated in polynomial time by counting self-avoiding walks via a color -coding technique. Moreover, we extend our estimator to spiked tensor models and establish analogous results.

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arXiv2020

Smoothed Complexity of 2-player Nash Equilibria

We prove that computing a Nash equilibrium of a two-player ($n \times n$) game with payoffs in $[-1,1]$ is PPAD-hard (under randomized reductions) even in the smoothed analysis setting, smoothing with noise of constant magnitude. This gives a strong negative answer to conjectures of Spielman and Teng [ST06] and Cheng, Deng, and Teng [CDT09]. In contrast to prior work proving PPAD-hardness after smoothing by noise of magnitude $1/\operatorname{poly}(n)$ [CDT09], our smoothed complexity result is not proved via hardness of approximation for Nash equilibria. This is by necessity, since Nash equilibria can be approximated to constant error in quasi-polynomial time [LMM03]. Our results therefore separate smoothed complexity and hardness of approximation for Nash equilibria in two-player games. The key ingredient in our reduction is the use of a random zero-sum game as a gadget to produce two-player games which remain hard even after smoothing. Our analysis crucially shows that all Nash equilibria of random zero-sum games are far from pure (with high probability), and that this remains true even after smoothing.

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arXiv2020

Robustly Learning any Clusterable Mixture of Gaussians

We study the efficient learnability of high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures in the outlier-robust setting, where a small constant fraction of the data is adversarially corrupted. We resolve the polynomial learnability of this problem when the components are pairwise separated in total variation distance. Specifically, we provide an algorithm that, for any constant number of components $k$, runs in polynomial time and learns the components of an $ε$-corrupted $k$-mixture within information theoretically near-optimal error of $\tilde{O}(ε)$, under the assumption that the overlap between any pair of components $P_i, P_j$ (i.e., the quantity $1-TV(P_i, P_j)$) is bounded by $\mathrm{poly}(ε)$. Our separation condition is the qualitatively weakest assumption under which accurate clustering of the samples is possible. In particular, it allows for components with arbitrary covariances and for components with identical means, as long as their covariances differ sufficiently. Ours is the first polynomial time algorithm for this problem, even for $k=2$. Our algorithm follows the Sum-of-Squares based proofs to algorithms approach. Our main technical contribution is a new robust identifiability proof of clusters from a Gaussian mixture, which can be captured by the constant-degree Sum of Squares proof system. The key ingredients of this proof are a novel use of SoS-certifiable anti-concentration and a new characterization of pairs of Gaussians with small (dimension-independent) overlap in terms of their parameter distance.

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arXiv2020

Subexponential LPs Approximate Max-Cut

We show that for every $\varepsilon > 0$, the degree-$n^\varepsilon$ Sherali-Adams linear program (with $\exp(\tilde{O}(n^\varepsilon))$ variables and constraints) approximates the maximum cut problem within a factor of $(\frac{1}{2}+\varepsilon')$, for some $\varepsilon'(\varepsilon) > 0$. Our result provides a surprising converse to known lower bounds against all linear programming relaxations of Max-Cut, and hence resolves the extension complexity of approximate Max-Cut for approximation factors close to $\frac{1}{2}$ (up to the function $\varepsilon'(\varepsilon)$). Previously, only semidefinite programs and spectral methods were known to yield approximation factors better than $\frac 12$ for Max-Cut in time $2^{o(n)}$. We also show that constant-degree Sherali-Adams linear programs (with $\text{poly}(n)$ variables and constraints) can solve Max-Cut with approximation factor close to $1$ on graphs of small threshold rank: this is the first connection of which we are aware between threshold rank and linear programming-based algorithms. Our results separate the power of Sherali-Adams versus Lovász-Schrijver hierarchies for approximating Max-Cut, since it is known that $(\frac{1}{2}+\varepsilon)$ approximation of Max Cut requires $Ω_\varepsilon (n)$ rounds in the Lovász-Schrijver hierarchy. We also provide a subexponential time approximation for Khot's Unique Games problem: we show that for every $\varepsilon > 0$ the degree-$(n^\varepsilon \log q)$ Sherali-Adams linear program distinguishes instances of Unique Games of value $\geq 1-\varepsilon'$ from instances of value $\leq \varepsilon'$, for some $\varepsilon'( \varepsilon) >0$, where $q$ is the alphabet size. Such guarantees are qualitatively similar to those of previous subexponential-time algorithms for Unique Games but our algorithm does not rely on semidefinite programming or subspace enumeration techniques.

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arXiv2019

Algorithms for Heavy-Tailed Statistics: Regression, Covariance Estimation, and Beyond

We study efficient algorithms for linear regression and covariance estimation in the absence of Gaussian assumptions on the underlying distributions of samples, making assumptions instead about only finitely-many moments. We focus on how many samples are needed to do estimation and regression with high accuracy and exponentially-good success probability. For covariance estimation, linear regression, and several other problems, estimators have recently been constructed with sample complexities and rates of error matching what is possible when the underlying distribution is Gaussian, but algorithms for these estimators require exponential time. We narrow the gap between the Gaussian and heavy-tailed settings for polynomial-time estimators with: 1. A polynomial-time estimator which takes $n$ samples from a random vector $X \in R^d$ with covariance $Σ$ and produces $\hatΣ$ such that in spectral norm $\|\hatΣ - Σ\|_2 \leq \tilde{O}(d^{3/4}/\sqrt{n})$ w.p. $1-2^{-d}$. The information-theoretically optimal error bound is $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d/n})$; previous approaches to polynomial-time algorithms were stuck at $\tilde{O}(d/\sqrt{n})$. 2. A polynomial-time algorithm which takes $n$ samples $(X_i,Y_i)$ where $Y_i = \langle u,X_i \rangle + \varepsilon_i$ and produces $\hat{u}$ such that the loss $\|u - \hat{u}\|^2 \leq O(d/n)$ w.p. $1-2^{-d}$ for any $n \geq d^{3/2} \log(d)^{O(1)}$. This (information-theoretically optimal) error is achieved by inefficient algorithms for any $n \gg d$; previous polynomial-time algorithms suffer loss $Ω(d^2/n)$ and require $n \gg d^2$. Our algorithms use degree-$8$ sum-of-squares semidefinite programs. We offer preliminary evidence that improving these rates of error in polynomial time is not possible in the median of means framework our algorithms employ.

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arXiv2019

Quantum Entropy Scoring for Fast Robust Mean Estimation and Improved Outlier Detection

We study two problems in high-dimensional robust statistics: \emph{robust mean estimation} and \emph{outlier detection}. In robust mean estimation the goal is to estimate the mean $μ$ of a distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ given $n$ independent samples, an $\varepsilon$-fraction of which have been corrupted by a malicious adversary. In outlier detection the goal is to assign an \emph{outlier score} to each element of a data set such that elements more likely to be outliers are assigned higher scores. Our algorithms for both problems are based on a new outlier scoring method we call QUE-scoring based on \emph{quantum entropy regularization}. For robust mean estimation, this yields the first algorithm with optimal error rates and nearly-linear running time $\widetilde{O}(nd)$ in all parameters, improving on the previous fastest running time $\widetilde{O}(\min(nd/\varepsilon^6, nd^2))$. For outlier detection, we evaluate the performance of QUE-scoring via extensive experiments on synthetic and real data, and demonstrate that it often performs better than previously proposed algorithms. Code for these experiments is available at https://github.com/twistedcubic/que-outlier-detection .

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arXiv2019

Mean Estimation with Sub-Gaussian Rates in Polynomial Time

We study polynomial time algorithms for estimating the mean of a heavy-tailed multivariate random vector. We assume only that the random vector $X$ has finite mean and covariance. In this setting, the radius of confidence intervals achieved by the empirical mean are large compared to the case that $X$ is Gaussian or sub-Gaussian. We offer the first polynomial time algorithm to estimate the mean with sub-Gaussian-size confidence intervals under such mild assumptions. Our algorithm is based on a new semidefinite programming relaxation of a high-dimensional median. Previous estimators which assumed only existence of finitely-many moments of $X$ either sacrifice sub-Gaussian performance or are only known to be computable via brute-force search procedures requiring time exponential in the dimension.

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arXiv2019

How Hard Is Robust Mean Estimation?

Robust mean estimation is the problem of estimating the mean $μ\in \mathbb{R}^d$ of a $d$-dimensional distribution $D$ from a list of independent samples, an $ε$-fraction of which have been arbitrarily corrupted by a malicious adversary. Recent algorithmic progress has resulted in the first polynomial-time algorithms which achieve \emph{dimension-independent} rates of error: for instance, if $D$ has covariance $I$, in polynomial-time one may find $\hatμ$ with $\|μ- \hatμ\| \leq O(\sqrtε)$. However, error rates achieved by current polynomial-time algorithms, while dimension-independent, are sub-optimal in many natural settings, such as when $D$ is sub-Gaussian, or has bounded $4$-th moments. In this work we give worst-case complexity-theoretic evidence that improving on the error rates of current polynomial-time algorithms for robust mean estimation may be computationally intractable in natural settings. We show that several natural approaches to improving error rates of current polynomial-time robust mean estimation algorithms would imply efficient algorithms for the small-set expansion problem, refuting Raghavendra and Steurer's small-set expansion hypothesis (so long as $P \neq NP$). We also give the first direct reduction to the robust mean estimation problem, starting from a plausible but nonstandard variant of the small-set expansion problem.

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arXiv2017

Mixture Models, Robustness, and Sum of Squares Proofs

We use the Sum of Squares method to develop new efficient algorithms for learning well-separated mixtures of Gaussians and robust mean estimation, both in high dimensions, that substantially improve upon the statistical guarantees achieved by previous efficient algorithms. Firstly, we study mixtures of $k$ distributions in $d$ dimensions, where the means of every pair of distributions are separated by at least $k^{\varepsilon}$. In the special case of spherical Gaussian mixtures, we give a $(dk)^{O(1/\varepsilon^2)}$-time algorithm that learns the means assuming separation at least $k^{\varepsilon}$, for any $\varepsilon > 0$. This is the first algorithm to improve on greedy ("single-linkage") and spectral clustering, breaking a long-standing barrier for efficient algorithms at separation $k^{1/4}$. We also study robust estimation. When an unknown $(1-\varepsilon)$-fraction of $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ are chosen from a sub-Gaussian distribution with mean $μ$ but the remaining points are chosen adversarially, we give an algorithm recovering $μ$ to error $\varepsilon^{1-1/t}$ in time $d^{O(t^2)}$, so long as sub-Gaussian-ness up to $O(t)$ moments can be certified by a Sum of Squares proof. This is the first polynomial-time algorithm with guarantees approaching the information-theoretic limit for non-Gaussian distributions. Previous algorithms could not achieve error better than $\varepsilon^{1/2}$. Both of these results are based on a unified technique. Inspired by recent algorithms of Diakonikolas et al. in robust statistics, we devise an SDP based on the Sum of Squares method for the following setting: given $X_1,\ldots,X_n \in \mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$ and $n = poly(d)$ with the promise that a subset of $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ were sampled from a probability distribution with bounded moments, recover some information about that distribution.

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arXiv2017

The power of sum-of-squares for detecting hidden structures

We study planted problems---finding hidden structures in random noisy inputs---through the lens of the sum-of-squares semidefinite programming hierarchy (SoS). This family of powerful semidefinite programs has recently yielded many new algorithms for planted problems, often achieving the best known polynomial-time guarantees in terms of accuracy of recovered solutions and robustness to noise. One theme in recent work is the design of spectral algorithms which match the guarantees of SoS algorithms for planted problems. Classical spectral algorithms are often unable to accomplish this: the twist in these new spectral algorithms is the use of spectral structure of matrices whose entries are low-degree polynomials of the input variables. We prove that for a wide class of planted problems, including refuting random constraint satisfaction problems, tensor and sparse PCA, densest-k-subgraph, community detection in stochastic block models, planted clique, and others, eigenvalues of degree-d matrix polynomials are as powerful as SoS semidefinite programs of roughly degree d. For such problems it is therefore always possible to match the guarantees of SoS without solving a large semidefinite program. Using related ideas on SoS algorithms and low-degree matrix polynomials (and inspired by recent work on SoS and the planted clique problem by Barak et al.), we prove new nearly-tight SoS lower bounds for the tensor and sparse principal component analysis problems. Our lower bounds for sparse principal component analysis are the first to suggest that going beyond existing algorithms for this problem may require sub-exponential time.

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arXiv2017

Bayesian estimation from few samples: community detection and related problems

We propose an efficient meta-algorithm for Bayesian estimation problems that is based on low-degree polynomials, semidefinite programming, and tensor decomposition. The algorithm is inspired by recent lower bound constructions for sum-of-squares and related to the method of moments. Our focus is on sample complexity bounds that are as tight as possible (up to additive lower-order terms) and often achieve statistical thresholds or conjectured computational thresholds. Our algorithm recovers the best known bounds for community detection in the sparse stochastic block model, a widely-studied class of estimation problems for community detection in graphs. We obtain the first recovery guarantees for the mixed-membership stochastic block model (Airoldi et el.) in constant average degree graphs---up to what we conjecture to be the computational threshold for this model. We show that our algorithm exhibits a sharp computational threshold for the stochastic block model with multiple communities beyond the Kesten--Stigum bound---giving evidence that this task may require exponential time. The basic strategy of our algorithm is strikingly simple: we compute the best-possible low-degree approximation for the moments of the posterior distribution of the parameters and use a robust tensor decomposition algorithm to recover the parameters from these approximate posterior moments.

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arXiv2016

A Nearly Tight Sum-of-Squares Lower Bound for the Planted Clique Problem

We prove that with high probability over the choice of a random graph $G$ from the Erdős-Rényi distribution $G(n,1/2)$, the $n^{O(d)}$-time degree $d$ Sum-of-Squares semidefinite programming relaxation for the clique problem will give a value of at least $n^{1/2-c(d/\log n)^{1/2}}$ for some constant $c>0$. This yields a nearly tight $n^{1/2 - o(1)}$ bound on the value of this program for any degree $d = o(\log n)$. Moreover we introduce a new framework that we call \emph{pseudo-calibration} to construct Sum of Squares lower bounds. This framework is inspired by taking a computational analog of Bayesian probability theory. It yields a general recipe for constructing good pseudo-distributions (i.e., dual certificates for the Sum-of-Squares semidefinite program), and sheds further light on the ways in which this hierarchy differs from others.

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