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Samuel Cure

Publications and source records attributed to Samuel Cure.

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Fast and exact simulations of stochastic epidemics on static and temporal networks

Epidemic models on complex networks have been widely used to study how the social structure of a population affect the spreading of epidemics. However, their numerical simulation can be computationally heavy, especially for large networks. In this paper, we introduce NEXT-Net: a flexible implementation of the next reaction method for epidemic spreading on both static and temporal networks. By systematic tests on artificial and real-world networks, we find that NEXT-Net is substantially faster than alternative algorithms, while being exact. It permits, in particular, to efficiently simulate epidemics on networks with million of nodes on a standard computer. It is also versatile enough to simulate a broad range of epidemic models of temporal networks, including cases in which the network structure changes in response to the epidemic. Our code is implemented in C++ and accessible from Python and R, thus combining speed with user friendliness. Because of these features, our algorithm constitutes an ideal tool for a broad range of applications.

physics.soc-ph

Exponential rate of epidemic spreading on complex networks

The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an expression of the reproduction number for a network, based on the degree distribution, the network assortativity, and the level of clustering. We then connect this reproduction number and the disease infectiousness to the spreading rate. Our result holds for a broad range of networks, apart from networks with very broad degree distribution, where no clear exponential regime is present. Our theory bridges the gap between classic epidemiology and the theory of complex networks, with broad implications for model inference and policy making.

physics.soc-ph

Antagonistic interactions can stabilise fixed points in heterogeneous linear dynamical systems

We analyse the stability of large, linear dynamical systems of variables that interact through a fully connected random matrix and have inhomogeneous growth rates. We show that in the absence of correlations between the coupling strengths, a system with interactions is always less stable than a system without interactions. Contrarily to the uncorrelated case, interactions that are antagonistic, i.e., characterised by negative correlations, can stabilise linear dynamical systems. In particular, when the strength of the interactions is not too strong, systems with antagonistic interactions are more stable than systems without interactions. These results are obtained with an exact theory for the spectral properties of fully connected random matrices with diagonal disorder.

cond-mat.dis-nn