arXiv subjects

Sander van Cranenburgh

Publications and source records attributed to Sander van Cranenburgh.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Flexibility without foresight: the predictive limitations of mixture models

Models allowing for random heterogeneity, such as mixed logit and latent class, are generally observed to obtain superior model fit and yield detailed insights into unobserved preference heterogeneity. Using theoretical arguments and two case studies on revealed and stated choice data, this paper highlights that these advantages do not translate into any benefits in forecasting, whether looking at prediction performance or the recovery of market shares. The only exception arises when using conditional distributions in making predictions for the same individuals included in the estimation sample, which obviously precludes any out-of-sample forecasting.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Can large language models assist choice modelling? Insights into prompting strategies and current models' capabilities

Large Language Models (LLMs) are becoming widely used to support various workflows across different disciplines, yet their potential in discrete choice modelling remains relatively unexplored. This work examines the potential of LLMs as assistive agents in the specification and, where technically feasible, estimation of Multinomial Logit models. We implement a systematic experimental framework involving twelve versions of seven leading LLMs (ChatGPT, Claude, DeepSeek, Gemini, Gemma, Llama, and Mistral) evaluated under five experimental configurations. These configurations vary along three dimensions: (i) modelling goal (suggesting vs. suggesting and estimating MNL models); (ii) prompting strategy (Zero-Shot vs. Chain-of-Thoughts (CoT)); and (iii) information availability (full dataset vs. data dictionary summarising variable names and types). Each specification suggested by the LLMs is implemented, estimated, and evaluated based on goodness-of-fit metrics, behavioural plausibility, and model complexity. Our findings reveal that proprietary LLMs can generate valid and behaviourally sound utility specifications, particularly when guided by structured prompts (CoT). Open-weight models such as Llama and Gemma struggled to produce meaningful specifications. Notably, some LLMs performed better when provided with just data dictionary, suggesting that limiting raw data access may enhance internal reasoning capabilities. Among all LLMs, GPT o3, operating in an agentic setting, was uniquely capable of correctly estimating its own specifications by executing self-generated code. Overall, the results demonstrate both the promise and current limitations of LLMs as assistive agents in discrete choice modelling, not only for model specification but also for supporting modelling decision and estimation, and provide practical guidance for integrating these tools into choice modellers' workflows.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Delphos: A reinforcement learning framework for assisting discrete choice model specification

We introduce Delphos, a deep reinforcement learning framework for assisting the discrete choice model specification process. Delphos aims to support the modeller by providing automated, data-driven suggestions for utility specifications, thereby reducing the effort required to develop and refine utility functions. Delphos conceptualises model specification as a sequential decision-making problem, inspired by the way human choice modellers iteratively construct models through a series of reasoned specification decisions. In this setting, an agent learns to specify high-performing candidate models by choosing a sequence of modelling actions, such as selecting variables, accommodating both generic and alternative-specific taste parameters, applying non-linear transformations, and including interactions with covariates, while interacting with a modelling environment that estimates each candidate and returns a reward signal. Specifically, Delphos uses a Deep Q-Network that receives delayed rewards based on modelling outcomes (e.g., log-likelihood) and behavioural expectations (e.g., parameter signs), and distributes this signal across the sequence of actions to learn which modelling decisions lead to well-performing candidates. We evaluate Delphos on both simulated and empirical datasets using multiple reward settings. In simulated cases, learning curves, Q-value patterns, and performance metrics show that the agent learns to adaptively explore strategies to propose well-performing models across search spaces, while covering only a small fraction of the feasible modelling space. We further apply the framework to two empirical datasets to demonstrate its practical use. These experiments illustrate the ability of Delphos to generate competitive, behaviourally plausible models and highlight the potential of this adaptive, learning-based framework to assist the model specification process.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Combine and conquer: model averaging for out-of-distribution forecasting

Travel behaviour modellers have an increasingly diverse set of models at their disposal, ranging from traditional econometric structures to models from mathematical psychology and data-driven approaches from machine learning. A key question arises as to how well these different models perform in prediction, especially when considering trips of different characteristics from those used in estimation, i.e. out-of-distribution prediction, and whether better predictions can be obtained by combining insights from the different models. We focus on trip distance as a key example of a variable where the application context might go beyond the estimation data. Across two case studies, we show that while data-driven approaches excel in predicting mode choice for trips within the distance bands used in estimation, beyond that range, the picture is fuzzy. To leverage the relative advantages of the different model families and capitalise on the notion that multiple `weak' models can result in more robust models, we put forward the use of a model averaging approach that allocates weights to different model families as a function of the distance between the characteristics of the trip for which predictions are made, and those used in model estimation. Overall, we see that the model averaging approach gives larger weight to models with stronger behavioural or econometric underpinnings the more we move outside the interval of trip distances covered in estimation. Across both case studies, we show that our model averaging approach obtains improved performance both on the estimation and test data, and crucially also when predicting mode choices for trips of distances outside the range used in estimation.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2025

Learning collision risk proactively from naturalistic driving data at scale

Accurately and proactively alerting drivers or automated systems to emerging collisions is crucial for road safety, particularly in highly interactive and complex urban environments. Existing methods either require labour-intensive annotation of sparse risk, struggle to consider varying contextual factors, or are tailored to limited scenarios. Here we present the Generalised Surrogate Safety Measure (GSSM), a data-driven approach that learns collision risk from naturalistic driving without the need for crash or risk labels. Trained over multiple datasets and evaluated on 2,591 real-world crashes and near-crashes, a basic GSSM using only instantaneous motion kinematics achieves an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.9, and secures a median time advance of 2.6 seconds to prevent potential collisions. Incorporating additional interaction patterns and contextual factors provides further performance gains. Across interaction scenarios such as rear-end, merging, and turning, GSSM consistently outperforms existing baselines in accuracy and timeliness. These results establish GSSM as a scalable, context-aware, and generalisable foundation to identify risky interactions before they become unavoidable, supporting proactive safety in autonomous driving systems and traffic incident management. Code and experiment data are openly accessible at https://github.com/Yiru-Jiao/GSSM.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Structure-preserving contrastive learning for spatial time series

The effectiveness of neural network models largely relies on learning meaningful latent patterns from data, where self-supervised learning of informative representations can enhance model performance and generalisability. However, self-supervised representation learning for spatially characterised time series, which are ubiquitous in transportation domain, poses unique challenges due to the necessity of maintaining fine-grained spatio-temporal similarities in the latent space. In this study, we introduce two structure-preserving regularisers for the contrastive learning of spatial time series: one regulariser preserves the topology of similarities between instances, and the other preserves the graph geometry of similarities across spatial and temporal dimensions. To balance the contrastive learning objective and the need for structure preservation, we propose a dynamic weighting mechanism that adaptively manages this trade-off and stabilises training. We validate the proposed method through extensive experiments, including multivariate time series classification to demonstrate its general applicability, as well as macroscopic and microscopic traffic prediction to highlight its particular usefulness in encoding traffic interactions. Across all tasks, our method preserves the similarity structures more effectively and improves state-of-the-art task performances. This method can be integrated with an arbitrary neural network model and is particularly beneficial for time series data with spatial or geographical features. Furthermore, our findings suggest that well-preserved similarity structures in the latent space indicate more informative and useful representations. This provides insights to design more effective neural networks for data-driven transportation research. Our code is made openly accessible with all resulting data at https://github.com/yiru-jiao/spclt

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Understanding the decision-making process of choice modellers

Discrete Choice Modelling serves as a robust framework for modelling human choice behaviour across various disciplines. Building a choice model is a semi structured research process that involves a combination of a priori assumptions, behavioural theories, and statistical methods. This complex set of decisions, coupled with diverse workflows, can lead to substantial variability in model outcomes. To better understand these dynamics, we developed the Serious Choice Modelling Game, which simulates the real world modelling process and tracks modellers' decisions in real time using a stated preference dataset. Participants were asked to develop choice models to estimate Willingness to Pay values to inform policymakers about strategies for reducing noise pollution. The game recorded actions across multiple phases, including descriptive analysis, model specification, and outcome interpretation, allowing us to analyse both individual decisions and differences in modelling approaches. While our findings reveal a strong preference for using data visualisation tools in descriptive analysis, it also identifies gaps in missing values handling before model specification. We also found significant variation in the modelling approach, even when modellers were working with the same choice dataset. Despite the availability of more complex models, simpler models such as Multinomial Logit were often preferred, suggesting that modellers tend to avoid complexity when time and resources are limited. Participants who engaged in more comprehensive data exploration and iterative model comparison tended to achieve better model fit and parsimony, which demonstrate that the methodological choices made throughout the workflow have significant implications, particularly when modelling outcomes are used for policy formulation.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

A utility-based spatial analysis of residential street-level conditions; A case study of Rotterdam

Residential location choices are traditionally modelled using factors related to accessibility and socioeconomic environments, neglecting the importance of local street-level conditions. Arguably, this neglect is due to data practices. Today, however, street-level images -- which are highly effective at encoding street-level conditions -- are widely available. Additionally, recent advances in discrete choice models incorporating computer vision capabilities offer opportunities to integrate street-level conditions into residential location choice analysis. This study leverages these developments to investigate the spatial distribution of utility derived from street-level conditions in residential location choices on a city-wide scale. In our case study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, we find that the utility derived from street-level conditions varies significantly on a highly localised scale, with conditions rapidly changing even within neighbourhoods. Our results also reveal that the high real-estate prices in the city centre cannot be attributed to attractive street-level conditions. Furthermore, whereas the city centre is characterised by relatively unattractive residential street-level conditions, neighbourhoods in the southern part of the city -- often perceived as problematic -- exhibit surprisingly appealing street-level environments. The methodological contribution of this paper is that it advances the discrete choice models incorporating computer vision capabilities by introducing a semantic regularisation layer to the model. Thereby, it adds explainability and eliminates the need for a separate pipeline to extract information from images, streamlining the analysis. As such, this paper's findings and methodological advancements pave the way for further studies to explore integrating street-level conditions in urban planning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

A Unified Probabilistic Approach to Traffic Conflict Detection

Traffic conflict detection is essential for proactive road safety by identifying potential collisions before they occur. Existing methods rely on surrogate safety measures tailored to specific interactions (e.g., car-following, side-swiping, or path-crossing) and require varying thresholds in different traffic conditions. This variation leads to inconsistencies and limited adaptability of conflict detection in evolving traffic environments. Consequently, a need persists for consistent detection of traffic conflicts across interaction contexts. To address this need, this study proposes a unified probabilistic approach. The proposed approach establishes a unified framework of traffic conflict detection, where traffic conflicts are formulated as context-dependent extreme events of road user interactions. The detection of conflicts is then decomposed into a series of statistical learning tasks: representing interaction contexts, inferring proximity distributions, and assessing extreme collision risk. The unified formulation accommodates diverse hypotheses of traffic conflicts and the learning tasks enable data-driven analysis of factors such as motion states of road users, environment conditions, and participant characteristics. Jointly, this approach supports consistent and comprehensive evaluation of the collision risk emerging in road user interactions. Our experiments using real-world trajectory data show that the approach provides effective collision warnings, generalises across distinct datasets and traffic environments, covers a broad range of conflict types, and captures a long-tailed distribution of conflict intensity. The findings highlight its potential to enhance the safety assessment of traffic infrastructures and policies, improve collision warning systems for autonomous driving, and deepen the understanding of road user behaviour in safety-critical interactions.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

An economically-consistent discrete choice model with flexible utility specification based on artificial neural networks

Random utility maximisation (RUM) models are one of the cornerstones of discrete choice modelling. However, specifying the utility function of RUM models is not straightforward and has a considerable impact on the resulting interpretable outcomes and welfare measures. In this paper, we propose a new discrete choice model based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) named "Alternative-Specific and Shared weights Neural Network (ASS-NN)", which provides a further balance between flexible utility approximation from the data and consistency with two assumptions: RUM theory and fungibility of money (i.e., "one euro is one euro"). Therefore, the ASS-NN can derive economically-consistent outcomes, such as marginal utilities or willingness to pay, without explicitly specifying the utility functional form. Using a Monte Carlo experiment and empirical data from the Swissmetro dataset, we show that ASS-NN outperforms (in terms of goodness of fit) conventional multinomial logit (MNL) models under different utility specifications. Furthermore, we show how the ASS-NN is used to derive marginal utilities and willingness to pay measures.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Computer vision-enriched discrete choice models, with an application to residential location choice

Visual imagery is indispensable to many multi-attribute decision situations. Examples of such decision situations in travel behaviour research include residential location choices, vehicle choices, tourist destination choices, and various safety-related choices. However, current discrete choice models cannot handle image data and thus cannot incorporate information embedded in images into their representations of choice behaviour. This gap between discrete choice models' capabilities and the real-world behaviour it seeks to model leads to incomplete and, possibly, misleading outcomes. To solve this gap, this study proposes "Computer Vision-enriched Discrete Choice Models" (CV-DCMs). CV-DCMs can handle choice tasks involving numeric attributes and images by integrating computer vision and traditional discrete choice models. Moreover, because CV-DCMs are grounded in random utility maximisation principles, they maintain the solid behavioural foundation of traditional discrete choice models. We demonstrate the proposed CV-DCM by applying it to data obtained through a novel stated choice experiment involving residential location choices. In this experiment, respondents faced choice tasks with trade-offs between commute time, monthly housing cost and street-level conditions, presented using images. As such, this research contributes to the growing body of literature in the travel behaviour field that seeks to integrate discrete choice modelling and machine learning.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Explainability of Deep Learning models for Urban Space perception

Deep learning based computer vision models are increasingly used by urban planners to support decision making for shaping urban environments. Such models predict how people perceive the urban environment quality in terms of e.g. its safety or beauty. However, the blackbox nature of deep learning models hampers urban planners to understand what landscape objects contribute to a particularly high quality or low quality urban space perception. This study investigates how computer vision models can be used to extract relevant policy information about peoples' perception of the urban space. To do so, we train two widely used computer vision architectures; a Convolutional Neural Network and a transformer, and apply GradCAM -- a well-known ex-post explainable AI technique -- to highlight the image regions important for the model's prediction. Using these GradCAM visualizations, we manually annotate the objects relevant to the models' perception predictions. As a result, we are able to discover new objects that are not represented in present object detection models used for annotation in previous studies. Moreover, our methodological results suggest that transformer architectures are better suited to be used in combination with GradCAM techniques. Code is available on Github.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Traveller behaviour in public transport in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands

Public transport ridership around the world has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Travellers are likely to adapt their behaviour to avoid the risk of transmission and these changes may even be sustained after the pandemic. To evaluate travellers' behaviour in public transport networks during these times and assess how they will respond to future changes in the pandemic, we conduct a stated choice experiment with train travellers in the Netherlands. We specifically assess behaviour related to three criteria affecting the risk of COVID-19 transmission: (i) crowding, (ii) exposure duration, and (iii) prevalent infection rate. Observed choices are analysed using a latent class choice model which reveals two, nearly equally sized traveller segments: 'COVID Conscious' and 'Infection Indifferent'. The former has a significantly higher valuation of crowding, accepting, on average 8.75 minutes extra waiting time to reduce one person on-board. Moreover, they demonstrate a strong desire to sit without anybody in their neighbouring seat and are quite sensitive to changes in the prevalent infection rate. By contrast, Infection Indifferent travellers' value of crowding (1.04 waiting time minutes/person) is only slightly higher than pre-pandemic estimates and they are relatively unaffected by infection rates. We find that older and female travellers are more likely to be COVD Conscious while those reporting to use the trains more frequently during the pandemic tend to be Infection Indifferent. Further analysis also reveals differences between the two segments in attitudes towards the pandemic and self-reported rule-following behaviour. The behavioural insights from this study will not only contribute to better demand forecasting for service planning but will also inform public transport policy decisions aimed at curbing the shift to private modes.

econ.GN↗