arXiv subjects

Sandro Azaele

Publications and source records attributed to Sandro Azaele.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Dispersal diversity buffers species vulnerability to local extinction

Predicting species persistence within ecological communities is a fundamental challenge for both empirical and theoretical ecology. Existing methods span from mechanistic models, whose parameters are difficult to estimate from data, to statistical tools whose context-specific parameters are less interpretable. Here, we present a general framework, grounded in the statistical physics of complex systems, that integrates the key processes governing species survival into a single measurable quantity: the competitive balance. This metric quantifies a focal species' vulnerability to competitive exclusion beyond what is captured by its abundance alone by incorporating the diversity of dispersal strategies and the structure of interspecific interactions within the community. Crucially, it can be inferred from spatial abundance data, thus circumventing the need to estimate species traits or dispersal parameters. Our results reveal that greater heterogeneity in dispersal strategies reduces vulnerability to competitive exclusion for a given abundance. Although we validate the framework using tropical and temperate forest data, it can be applied to a range of different ecosystems, providing a systemic and interpretable tool for assessing a context-dependent species vulnerability that accounts for its interactions with the entire community.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

Pathogen diversity emerging from coevolutionary dynamics in interconnected systems

The spread of infectious disease and the evolution of antigenically distinct strains are often modeled separately, despite strong feedbacks mediated by host immune memory and heterogeneous contacts. To tackle this challenging problem, we introduce a coevolutionary framework in which transmission occurs on a metapopulation network while mutational exploration of strain space follows a mutation network. In this multiscale model, cross-immunity is encoded by similarity in the latent diffusion geometry of the strain network, so that nearby strains confer partial immune protection. We first identify an effective critical region that controls the transition between extinction, recurrent outbreak episodes, and long-lived endemic persistence, thus characterizing the resulting strain-turnover dynamics. We then derive a replicator-mutator-like equation for strain composition and an explicit dynamical evolutionary landscape induced by the coupling of mutation and transmission. Finally, allowing host heterogeneity to modulate the local mutation structure, we show that spreading across demes can effectively connect otherwise disconnected components of strain space, increasing long-term endemic diversity while producing a non-monotonic change in overall prevalence. Together, our results isolate minimal mechanisms by which immune-mediated competition and network structure can shape antigenic diversification.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2026

Will a time-varying complex system be stable?

Randomly-assembled dynamical systems are theoretically predicted to be unstable upon crossing a critical threshold of complexity, as first shown by May. Yet, empirical complex systems exhibit remarkable stability, indicating the presence of additional mechanisms playing a stabilizing role. The relation between complexity and stability is typically assessed by assuming fixed interactions, whereas real systems often evolve in intrinsically time-dependent states. To understand how this affects stability, we linearize a general non-autonomous dynamics around a reference operating state and model the resulting parameters as stochastic processes, which represent the minimal extension of static random interactions to time-varying ones. We derive exact stability bounds that generalize complexity-stability theory to dynamically varying systems. Notably, we find that temporal variability allows systems to remain stable even when their instantaneous Jacobian would predict instability. We compare our results against a non-linear neural network model, where our theory applies exactly, and the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, where we numerically find that time-varying interactions systematically postpone the onset of replica-symmetry breaking. Overall, our results indicate that temporal variability systematically improves stability, demonstrating a general mechanism by which complex systems can violate classical complexity-stability bounds.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2026

Pulse desynchronization of neural populations by targeting the centroid of the limit cycle in phase space

The synchronized activity of neuronal populations can lead to pathological over-synchronization in conditions such as epilepsy and Parkinson disease. Such states can be desynchronized by brief electrical pulses. But when the underlying oscillating system is not known, as in most practical applications, to determine the specific times and intensities of pulses used for desynchronizaton is a difficult inverse problem. Here we propose a desynchronization scheme for neuronal models of bi-variate neural activity, with possible applications in the medical setting. Our main argument is the existence of a peculiar point in the phase space of the system, the centroid, that is both easy to calculate and robust under changes in the coupling constant. This important target point can be used in a control procedure because it lies in the region of minimal return times of the system.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2026

Habitat heterogeneity and dispersal network structure as drivers of metacommunity dynamics

Spatial structure and species interactions jointly shape the dynamics and biodiversity of ecological systems, yet most theoretical models either neglect spatial heterogeneity or sacrifice analytical tractability. Here, we provide a unified microscopic, mechanistic framework for deriving effective metapopulation and metacommunity models from individual-based ecological dynamics on arbitrary dispersal networks. The resulting coarse-grained description features an effective dispersal kernel that encodes both microscopic dynamical parameters and network topology. Based on this framework, we demonstrate exact analytical results for species persistence in both homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes, including a generalization of the classical concept of metapopulation capacity to non-uniform local extinction rates. Incorporating stochasticity arising from finite carrying capacities, we obtain a reduced one-dimensional description that reveals universal finite-size scaling laws for extinction times and fluctuations. Extending the approach to multiple competing species, we prove that in homogeneous environments monodominance can be avoided only in a fine-tuned, marginally stable coexistence state, and that the classic metapopulation capacity gives only a necessary but not sufficient condition for persistence. We demonstrate that heterogeneous habitats can support stable coexistence, but only above a critical level of heterogeneity. Finally, we outline how additional ecological processes can be systematically incorporated within the same formalism. Together, these results provide analytical benchmarks and a general route for constructing spatially explicit ecological theories based on an interpretable underlying mechanistic foundation.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Griffiths phase emerging from strong mutualistic disorder in high-dimensional interacting systems

The majority of analysis of interacting systems is done for weak and well-balanced interactions, when in fact topology and rare event factors often result in strong and sign-biased interactions when considering real systems. We analyse the impact of strong mutualistic interactions in a uniformly weighted Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi network under generalised Lotka-Volterra dynamics. In difference to the typical case we show the interaction topology and system dynamics combine to produce power law abundance distributions in a critical region of the phase diagram, identifiable as a Griffiths phase. We find asymptotic expressions for the fixed point solution in this region, and establish the boundary of this region as when topology alone determines the abundance distribution. We show that the Griffiths phase persists for strong mutualistic interactions more generally, and survives when combined with weak all-to-all competition.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2025

The Limits of Inference in Complex Systems: When Stochastic Models Become Indistinguishable

Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes to deliver reliable parameter estimation and model selection from coarsely sampled time series, without requiring analytical solutions. Crucially, we couple mechanistic stochastic models with their inference procedures to quantify how experimental design -specifically, sampling frequency and dataset size- governs estimator precision and model distinguishability. This analysis reveals optimal sampling regimes and sharp, resolution-dependent limits beyond which competing models become empirically indistinguishable. We validate the approach across four disparate systems -trajectories of optically trapped particles, human microbiome dynamics, social-media topic mentions, and forest population time series- recovering parameters and identifying when inference is fundamentally constrained by measurement resolution, thereby clarifying ongoing debates about dominant noise sources in these systems. Together, these results establish path-based Monte Carlo as a practical, general tool for inference and model discrimination in complex systems and provide principled guidelines for designing measurements that maximize information under real-world constraints.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

Unraveling the temporal dependence of ecological interaction measures

Identifying the network of species interactions is a fundamental step toward understanding ecosystem stability and biodiversity. However, the interpretability of empirical interaction measures remains a major challenge. Experimental estimates frequently exhibit puzzling temporal fluctuations, including sign shifts typically interpreted as transitions between competition and facilitation. Here, we analyze the temporal behavior of pairwise interaction measures to demonstrate that these fluctuations - and apparent shifts in ecological roles - can emerge intrinsically from standard population dynamics, without any underlying change in the actual ecological relationships. We show that inferred interactions are heavily distorted by experimental protocol choices, particularly the duration of observation and microbial growth constraints. By systematically evaluating interactions across timescales, we uncover a principled mechanism to mitigate these biases: short-term measurements reliably isolate direct, pairwise species couplings, whereas longer-term observations inevitably absorb indirect community feedbacks and systemic experimental constraints. By disentangling direct couplings from indirect network effects, our framework provides a robust, timescale-aware approach to interpreting empirical interaction matrices, offering critical quantitative guidance for experimental design and predictive ecosystem modeling.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Generalized Lotka-Volterra systems with quenched random interactions and saturating nonlinear response

The generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) equations with quenched random interactions have been extensively used to investigate the stability and dynamics of complex ecosystems. However, the standard linear interaction model suffers from pathological unbounded growth, especially under strong cooperation or heterogeneity. This work addresses that limitation by introducing a Monod-type saturating nonlinear response into the GLV framework. Using Dynamical Mean Field Theory, we derive analytical expressions for the species abundance distribution in the Unique Fixed Point phase and show the suppression of unbounded dynamics. Numerical simulations reveal a rich dynamical structure in the Multiple Attractor phase, including a transition between high-dimensional chaotic and low-volatility regimes, governed by interaction symmetry. These findings offer a more ecologically realistic foundation for disordered ecosystem models and highlight the role of nonlinearity and symmetry in shaping the diversity and resilience of large ecological communities.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Synchronization and chaos in complex ecological communities with delayed interactions

Explaining the wide range of dynamics observed in ecological communities is challenging due to the large number of species involved, the complex network of interactions among them, and the influence of multiple environmental variables. Here, we consider a general framework to model the dynamics of species-rich communities under the effects of external environmental factors, showing that it naturally leads to delayed interactions between species, and analyze the impact of such memory effects on population dynamics. Employing the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with time delays and random interactions, we characterize the resulting dynamical phases in terms of the statistical properties of community interactions. Our findings reveal that memory effects can generate persistent and synchronized oscillations in species abundances in sufficiently competitive communities. This provides an additional explanation for synchronization in large communities, complementing known mechanisms such as predator-prey cycles and environmental periodic variability. Furthermore, we show that when reciprocal interactions are negatively correlated, time delays alone can induce chaotic behavior. This suggests that ecological complexity is not a prerequisite for unpredictable population dynamics, as intrinsic memory effects are sufficient to generate long-term fluctuations in species abundances. The techniques developed in this work are applicable to any high-dimensional random dynamical system with time delays.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Generalized Lotka-Volterra model with sparse interactions: non-Gaussian effects and topological multiple-equilibria phase

We study the equilibrium phases of a generalized Lotka-Volterra model characterized by a species interaction matrix which is random, sparse and symmetric. Dynamical fluctuations are modeled by a demographic noise with amplitude proportional to the effective temperature T. The equilibrium distribution of species abundances is obtained by means of the cavity method and the Belief Propagation equations, which allow for an exact solution on sparse networks. Our results reveal a rich and non-trivial phenomenology that deviates significantly from the predictions of fully connected models. Consistently with data from real ecosystems, which are characterized by sparse rather than dense interaction networks, we find strong deviations from Gaussianity in the distribution of abundances. In addition to the study of these deviations from Gaussianity, which are not related to multiple-equilibria, we also identified a novel topological glass phase, present at both finite temperature, as shown here, and at T=0, as previously suggested in the literature. The peculiarity of this phase, which differs from the multiple-equilibria phase of fully-connected networks, is its strong dependence on the presence of extinctions. These findings provide new insights into how network topology and disorder influence ecological networks, particularly emphasizing that sparsity is a crucial feature for accurately modeling real-world ecological phenomena.

cond-mat.stat-mech↗

arXiv2025

A novel metric for species vulnerability and coexistence in spatially-extended ecosystems

We develop a theoretical framework to understand the persistence and coexistence of competitive species in a spatially explicit metacommunity model with a heterogeneous dispersal kernel. Our analysis, based on methods from the physics of disordered systems and non-Gaussian dynamical mean field theory, reveals that species coexistence is governed by a single key parameter, which we term competitive balance. From competitive balance, we derive a novel metric to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of a species, showing that abundance alone is not sufficient to determine it. Rather, a species' vulnerability crucially depends on the state of the metacommunity as a whole. We test our theory by analyzing two distinct tropical forest datasets, finding excellent agreement with our theoretical predictions. A key step in our analysis is the introduction of a new quantity - the competitive score - which disentangles the abundance distribution and enables us to circumvent the challenge of estimating both the colonization kernel and the joint abundance distribution. Our findings provide novel and fundamental insights into the ecosystem-level trade-offs underlying macroecological patterns and introduce a robust approach for estimating extinction risks.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2025

Emergence of ecological structure and species rarity from fluctuating metabolic strategies

Ecosystems frequently display the coexistence of diverse species under resource competition, typically resulting in skewed distributions of rarity and abundance. A potential driver of such coexistence is environmental fluctuations that favor different species over time. How to include and treat such temporal variability in existing consumer-resource models is still an open problem. In this work, we study correlated temporal fluctuations in species' resource uptake rates -- i.e. metabolic strategies -- within a stochastic consumer-resource framework. In a biologically relevant regime, we are able to find analytically the species abundance distributions through the path integral formalism. Our results reveal that stochastic dynamic metabolic strategies induce community structures that align more closely with empirical ecological observations. Within this framework, ecological communities show a higher diversity than expected under static competitive scenarios. We find that all species become extinct when the ratio of the number of species to the number of resources exceeds a critical threshold. Conversely, diversity peaks at intermediate values of the same ratio. Furthermore, when metabolic strategies of different species are different on average, maximal biodiversity is achieved for intermediate values of the amplitude of fluctuations. This work establishes a robust theoretical framework for exploring how temporal dynamics and stochasticity drive biodiversity and community structure.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Exact solution of Dynamical Mean-Field Theory for a linear system with annealed disorder

We investigate a disordered multi-dimensional linear system in which the interaction parameters vary stochastically in time with defined temporal correlations. We refer to this type of disorder as "annealed", in contrast to quenched disorder in which couplings are fixed in time. We extend Dynamical Mean-Field Theory to accommodate annealed disorder and employ it to find the exact solution of the linear model in the limit of a large number of degrees of freedom. Our analysis yields analytical results for the non-stationary auto-correlation, the stationary variance, the power spectral density, and the phase diagram of the model. Interestingly, some unexpected features emerge upon changing the correlation time of the interactions. The stationary variance of the system and the critical variance of the disorder are generally found to be a non-monotonic function of the correlation time of the interactions. We also find that in some cases a re-entrant phase transition takes place when this correlation time is varied.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2024

Spatially disordered environments stabilize competitive metacommunities

Metapopulation models have been instrumental in demonstrating the ecological impact of landscape structure on the survival of a focal species in complex environments. However, extensions to multiple species with arbitrary dispersal networks often rely on phenomenological assumptions limiting their scope. Here, we develop a multilayer network model of competitive dispersing metacommunities to investigate how spatially structured environments impact species coexistence and ecosystem stability. We show that homogeneous environments always lead to monodominance unless all species' fitness parameters are in an exact trade-off. However, this precise fine-tuning does not guarantee coexistence in generic heterogeneous environments. By introducing general spatial disorder in the model, we solve it exactly in the mean-field limit, finding that stable coexistence becomes possible in the presence of strong disorder. Crucially, coexistence is supported by the spontaneous localization of species through the emergence of ecological niches. Our results remain qualitatively valid in arbitrary dispersal networks, where topological features can improve species coexistence. Finally, we employ our model to study how correlated disorder promotes spatial ecological patterns in realistic terrestrial and riverine landscapes. Our work provides a novel framework to understand how landscape structure enables coexistence in metacommunities by acting as the substrate for ecological interactions.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Modelling co-evolution of resource feedback and social network dynamics in human-environmental systems

Games with environmental feedback have become a crucial area of study across various scientific domains, modelling the dynamic interplay between human decisions and environmental changes, and highlighting the consequences of our choices on natural resources and biodiversity. In this work, we propose a co-evolutionary model for human-environment systems that incorporates the effects of knowledge feedback and social interaction on the sustainability of common pool resources. The model represents consumers as agents who adjust their resource extraction based on the resource's state. These agents are connected through social networks, where links symbolize either affinity or aversion among them. The interplay between social dynamics and resource dynamics is explored, with the system's evolution analyzed across various network topologies and initial conditions. We find that knowledge feedback can independently sustain common pool resources. However, the impact of social interactions on sustainability is dual-faceted: it can either support or impede sustainability, influenced by the network's connectivity and heterogeneity. A notable finding is the identification of a critical network mean degree, beyond which a depletion/repletion transition parallels an absorbing/active state transition in social dynamics, i.e., individual agents and their connections are/are not prone to being frozen in their social states. Furthermore, the study examines the evolution of the social network, revealing the emergence of two polarized groups where agents within each community have the same affinity. Comparative analyses using Monte-Carlo simulations and rate equations are employed, along with analytical arguments, to reinforce the study's findings. The model successfully captures how information spread and social dynamics may impact the sustanebility of common pool resource.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Stochastic trade-offs and the emergence of diversification in E. coli evolution experiments

Laboratory experiments with bacterial colonies, under well-controlled conditions often lead to evolutionary diversification, where at least two ecotypes emerge from an initially monomorphic population. Empirical evidence suggests that such ''evolutionary branching'' occurs stochastically, even under fixed and stable conditions. This stochastic nature is characterized by: (i) occurrence in a significant fraction, but not all, of experimental settings, (ii) emergence at widely varying times, and (iii) variable relative abundances of the resulting subpopulations across experiments. Theoretical approaches to understanding evolutionary branching under these conditions have been previously developed within the (deterministic) framework of ''adaptive dynamics''. Here, we advance the understanding of the stochastic nature of evolutionary outcomes by introducing the concept of ''stochastic trade-offs'' as opposed to ''hard'' ones. The key idea is that the stochasticity of mutations occurs in a high-dimensional trait space and this translates into variability that is constrained to a flexible tradeoff curve. By incorporating this additional source of stochasticity, we are able to account for the observed empirical variability and make predictions regarding the likelihood of evolutionary branching under different conditions. This approach effectively bridges the gap between theoretical predictions and experimental observations, providing insights into when and how evolutionary branching is more likely to occur in laboratory experiments.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2023

Generalized Lotka-Volterra Systems with Time Correlated Stochastic Interactions

In this work, we explore the dynamics of species abundances within ecological communities using the Generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) model. At variance with previous approaches, we present an analysis of stochastic GLV dynamics with temporal fluctuations in interaction strengths between species. We develop a dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) tailored for scenarios with annealed colored noise and simple functional responses. We show that time-dependent interactions can be effectively modeled as environmental noise in the DMFT and we obtain analytical predictions for the species abundance distribution that well matches empirical observations. Our results suggest that environmental noise favors species coexistence and allows to overcome the complexity-stability paradox, especially in comparison to dynamics with quenched disorder. This study offers new insights not only into the modeling of large ecosystem dynamics, but also proposes novel methodologies for examining ecological systems.

q-bio.PE↗