arXiv subjects

Santiago Olivella

Publications and source records attributed to Santiago Olivella.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2024

A Statistical Model of Bipartite Networks: Application to Cosponsorship in the United States Senate

Many networks in political and social research are bipartite, with edges connecting exclusively across two distinct types of nodes. A common example includes cosponsorship networks, in which legislators are connected indirectly through the bills they support. Yet most existing network models are designed for unipartite networks, where edges can arise between any pair of nodes. However, using a unipartite network model to analyze bipartite networks, as often done in practice, can result in aggregation bias and artificially high-clustering -- a particularly insidious problem when studying the role groups play in network formation. To address these methodological problems, we develop a statistical model of bipartite networks theorized to be generated through group interactions by extending the popular mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel. Our model allows researchers to identify the groups of nodes, within each node type in the bipartite structure, that share common patterns of edge formation. The model also incorporates both node and dyad-level covariates as the predictors of group membership and of observed dyadic relations. We develop an efficient computational algorithm for fitting the model, and apply it to cosponsorship data from the United States Senate. We show that legislators in a Senate that was perfectly split along party lines were able to remain productive and pass major legislation by forming non-partisan, power-brokering coalitions that found common ground through their collaboration on low-stakes bills. We also find evidence for norms of reciprocity, and uncover the substantial role played by policy expertise in the formation of cosponsorships between senators and legislation. We make an open-source software package available that makes it possible for other researchers to uncover similar insights from bipartite networks.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

A Non-parametric Bayesian Model for Detecting Differential Item Functioning: An Application to Political Representation in the US

A common approach when studying the quality of representation involves comparing the latent preferences of voters and legislators, commonly obtained by fitting an item-response theory (IRT) model to a common set of stimuli. Despite being exposed to the same stimuli, voters and legislators may not share a common understanding of how these stimuli map onto their latent preferences, leading to differential item-functioning (DIF) and incomparability of estimates. We explore the presence of DIF and incomparability of latent preferences obtained through IRT models by re-analyzing an influential survey data set, where survey respondents expressed their preferences on roll call votes that U.S. legislators had previously voted on. To do so, we propose defining a Dirichlet Process prior over item-response functions in standard IRT models. In contrast to typical multi-step approaches to detecting DIF, our strategy allows researchers to fit a single model, automatically identifying incomparable sub-groups with different mappings from latent traits onto observed responses. We find that although there is a group of voters whose estimated positions can be safely compared to those of legislators, a sizeable share of surveyed voters understand stimuli in fundamentally different ways. Ignoring these issues can lead to incorrect conclusions about the quality of representation.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Addressing Census data problems in race imputation via fully Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding and name supplements

Prediction of individual's race and ethnicity plays an important role in social science and public health research. Examples include studies of racial disparity in health and voting. Recently, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which uses Bayes' rule to combine information from Census surname files with the geocoding of an individual's residence, has emerged as a leading methodology for this prediction task. Unfortunately, BISG suffers from two Census data problems that contribute to unsatisfactory predictive performance for minorities. First, the decennial Census often contains zero counts for minority racial groups in the Census blocks where some members of those groups reside. Second, because the Census surname files only include frequent names, many surnames -- especially those of minorities -- are missing from the list. To address the zero counts problem, we introduce a fully Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (fBISG) methodology that accounts for potential measurement error in Census counts by extending the naive Bayesian inference of the BISG methodology to full posterior inference. To address the missing surname problem, we supplement the Census surname data with additional data on last, first, and middle names taken from the voter files of six Southern states where self-reported race is available. Our empirical validation shows that the fBISG methodology and name supplements significantly improve the accuracy of race imputation across all racial groups, and especially for Asians. The proposed methodology, together with additional name data, is available via the open-source software WRU.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Race and ethnicity data for first, middle, and last names

We provide the largest compiled publicly available dictionaries of first, middle, and last names for the purpose of imputing race and ethnicity using, for example, Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG). The dictionaries are based on the voter files of six Southern states that collect self-reported racial data upon voter registration. Our data cover a much larger scope of names than any comparable dataset, containing roughly one million first names, 1.1 million middle names, and 1.4 million surnames. Individuals are categorized into five mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups -- White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Other -- and racial/ethnic counts by name are provided for every name in each dictionary. Counts can then be normalized row-wise or column-wise to obtain conditional probabilities of race given name or name given race. These conditional probabilities can then be deployed for imputation in a data analytic task for which ground truth racial and ethnic data is not available.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2021

Recalibration of Predictive Models as Approximate Probabilistic Updates

The output of predictive models is routinely recalibrated by reconciling low-level predictions with known derived quantities defined at higher levels of aggregation. For example, models predicting turnout probabilities at the individual level in U.S. elections can be adjusted so that their aggregation matches the observed vote totals in each state, thus producing better calibrated predictions. In this research note, we provide theoretical grounding for one of the most commonly used recalibration strategies, known colloquially as the "logit shift." Typically cast as a heuristic optimization problem (whereby an adjustment is found such that it minimizes the difference between aggregated predictions and the target totals), we show that the logit shift in fact offers a fast and accurate approximation to a principled, but often computationally impractical adjustment strategy: computing the posterior prediction probabilities, conditional on the target totals. After deriving analytical bounds on the quality of the approximation, we illustrate the accuracy of the approach using Monte Carlo simulations. The simulations also confirm analytical results regarding scenarios in which users of the simple logit shift can expect it to perform best -- namely, when the aggregated targets are comprised of many individual predictions, and when the distribution of true probabilities is symmetric and tight around 0.5.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Dynamic Stochastic Blockmodel Regression for Network Data: Application to International Militarized Conflicts

A primary goal of social science research is to understand how latent group memberships predict the dynamic process of network evolution. In the modeling of international militarized conflicts, for instance, scholars hypothesize that membership in geopolitical coalitions shapes the decision to engage in conflict. Such theories explain the ways in which nodal and dyadic characteristics affect the evolution of conflict patterns over time via their effects on group memberships. To aid the empirical testing of these arguments, we develop a dynamic model of network data by combining a hidden Markov model with a mixed-membership stochastic blockmodel that identifies latent groups underlying the network structure. Unlike existing models, we incorporate covariates that predict dynamic node memberships in latent groups as well as the direct formation of edges between dyads. While prior substantive research often assumes the decision to engage in international militarized conflict is independent across states and static over time, we demonstrate that conflict is driven by states' evolving membership in geopolitical blocs. Changes in monadic covariates like democracy shift states between coalitions, generating heterogeneous effects on conflict over time and across states. The proposed methodology, which relies on a variational approximation to a collapsed posterior distribution as well as stochastic optimization for scalability, is implemented through an open-source software package.

stat.AP↗