arXiv subjects

Sarah Gasda

Publications and source records attributed to Sarah Gasda.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Risk sharing in cooperative game models for CO$_2$ storage with uncertain geology and pressure competition

With an increasing number of prospective geological CO$_2$ storage projects and potential pressure communication between different projects, risk sharing under uncertain geological conditions are relevant to many project operators. In this work, the project operators are modeled as agents in a stochastic cooperative game. The agents can have different risk attitudes, here defined as being willing to accept more or less uncertainty in the predicted storage of CO$_2$. This uncertainty stems from lack of knowledge of geological parameters as well as unknown future actions of competing agents, and the corresponding probability distributions need to be estimated by numerical simulation. The agents can choose to share commercial risk if collaboration is preferable to a baseline scenario of individual injection. If their operations affect each other by means of, e.g., pressure communication, there may be no unique natural definition of a baseline scenario. As a remedy, we suggest belief distributions that combine uncertainty in physical data with maximum entropy prior distributions over the sets of viable injection actions. For a realistic storage site, exemplified by the Utsira Formation in the North Sea, we present numerical results for both cases of pressure competition, and no hydraulic connections between different project operations. It is shown that risk averse agents benefit from collaboration when there is no pressure communication or other interference between agents. It is also demonstrated that pressure communication leads to large variability in the feasible injection rates, but the resulting belief distributions are nevertheless informative and useful for decision making about collaboration.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Solving Biot poroelasticity by coupling OPM Flow with the two-point stress approximation finite volume method

Finite volume methods are prevalent in reservoir simulation due to their mass conservation properties and their ability to handle complex grids. However, a simple and consistent finite volume method for elasticity was unavailable until the recently developed two-point stress approximation finite volume method (TPSA). In this work, we show how to couple TPSA to an established flow simulator, using OPM Flow as our primary example. Due to this choice of numerical methods, the coupling is naturally handled at the cell centers, without requiring interpolation operators. We propose a fixed stress coupling scheme and reuse algebraic multi-grid preconditioners, which are known to be effective for two-point flux finite volume methods. Numerical examples illustrate the flexibility of the approach and we showcase how the introduction of solid mechanics impacts the behavior of compartmentalized flow systems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

Cooperative games defined by multi-objective optimization in competition for subsurface resources

We propose a novel decision making framework for forming potential collaboration among otherwise competing agents in subsurface systems. The agents can be, e.g., groundwater, CO$_2$, or hydrogen injectors and extractors with conflicting goals on a geophysically connected system. The operations of a given agent affect the other agents by induced pressure buildup that may jeopardize system integrity. In this work, such a situation is modeled as a cooperative game where the set of agents is partitioned into disjoint coalitions that define the collaborations. The games are in partition function form with externalities, i.e., the value of a coalition depends on both the coalition itself and on the actions of external agents. We investigate the class of cooperative games where the coalition values are the total injection volumes as given by Pareto optimal solutions to multi-objective optimization problems subject to arbitrary physical constraints. For this class of games, we prove that the Pareto set of any coalition structure is a subset of any other coalition structure obtained by splitting coalitions of the first coalition structure. Furthermore, the hierarchical structure of the Pareto sets is used to reduce the computational cost in an algorithm to hierarchically compute the entire Pareto fronts of all possible coalition structures. We demonstrate the framework on a pumping wells groundwater example, and nonlinear and realistic CO$_2$ injection cases, displaying a wide range of possible outcomes. Numerical cost reduction is demonstrated for the proposed algorithm with hierarchically computed Pareto fronts compared to independently solving the multi-objective optimization problems.

math.OC↗

arXiv2024

Multi-objective optimization for multi-agent injection strategies in subsurface CO$_2$ storage

We propose a novel framework for optimizing injection strategies in large-scale CO$_2$ storage combining multi-agent models with multi-objective optimization, and reservoir simulation. We investigate whether agents should form coalitions for collaboration to maximize the outcome of their storage activities. In multi-agent systems, it is typically assumed that the optimal strategy for any given coalition structure is already known, and it remains to identify which coalition structure is optimal according to some predefined criterion. For any coalition structure in this work, the optimal CO$_2$ injection strategy is not a priori known, and needs to be found by a combination of reservoir simulation and a multi-objective optimization problem. The multi-objective optimization problems all come with the numerical challenges of repeated evaluations of complex-physics models. We use versatile evolutionary algorithms to solve the multi-objective optimization problems, where the solution is a set of values, e.g., a Pareto front. The Pareto fronts are first computed using the so-called weighted sum method that transforms the multi-objective optimization problem into a set of single-objective optimization problems. Results based on two different Pareto front selection criteria are presented. Then a truly multi-objective optimization method is used to obtain the Pareto fronts, and compared to the previous weighted sum method. We demonstrate the proposed framework on the Bjarmeland formation, a pressure-limited prospective storage site in the Barents Sea. The problem is constrained by the maximum sustainable pressure buildup and a supply of CO$_2$ that can vary over time. In addition to identifying the optimal coalitions, the methodology shows how distinct suboptimal coalitions perform in comparison to the optimum.

math.NA↗

arXiv2023

Copula modeling and uncertainty propagation in field-scale simulation of CO$_2$ fault leakage

Subsurface storage of CO$_2$ is an important means to mitigate climate change, and to investigate the fate of CO$_2$ over several decades in vast reservoirs, numerical simulation based on realistic models is essential. Faults and other complex geological structures introduce modeling challenges as their effects on storage operations are uncertain due to limited data. In this work, we present a computational framework for forward propagation of uncertainty, including stochastic upscaling and copula representation of flow functions for a CO$_2$ storage site using the Vette fault zone in the Smeaheia formation in the North Sea as a test case. The upscaling method leads to a reduction of the number of stochastic dimensions and the cost of evaluating the reservoir model. A viable model that represents the upscaled data needs to capture dependencies between variables, and allow sampling. Copulas provide representation of dependent multidimensional random variables and a good fit to data, allow fast sampling, and coupling to the forward propagation method via independent uniform random variables. The non-stationary correlation within some of the upscaled flow function are accurately captured by a data-driven transformation model. The uncertainty in upscaled flow functions and other parameters are propagated to uncertain leakage estimates using numerical reservoir simulation of a two-phase system. The expectations of leakage are estimated by an adaptive stratified sampling technique, where samples are sequentially concentrated to regions of the parameter space to greedily maximize variance reduction. We demonstrate cost reduction compared to standard Monte Carlo of one or two orders of magnitude for simpler test cases with only fault and reservoir layer permeabilities assumed uncertain, and factors 2--8 cost reduction for stochastic multi-phase flow properties and more complex stochastic models.

math.NA↗