arXiv subjects

Satabdwa Majumdar

Publications and source records attributed to Satabdwa Majumdar.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Real-time prediction of two geomagnetic storms using Solar Orbiter as a far upstream solar wind monitor

We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach assumes idealized conditions for CME propagation and scaling, in situ magnetic field data from upstream monitors still produced realistic predictions despite the large heliocentric distance between Solar Orbiter and L1 (0.53 and 0.60 au). Geomagnetic index predictions were made 15.3 and 4.3 hours before the CME shock arrival at L1, and 33.9 and 10.3 hours ahead of peak storm time; a large improvement over current L1-based nowcasting capabilities. We find that observationally constraining the simple drag-based models using the upstream in situ observations improved arrival time estimates for the two events in this study, although arrival time errors of several hours still remain. Our results show that good predictions of CME magnetic structure and geomagnetic indices with actionable lead-times can be made with far upstream spacecraft, even with longitudinal separations up to 10° from the Sun-Earth line, over heliocentric distance ranges where radial evolution effects dominate over longitudinal effects. Limitations include different expansion behaviors for individual CMEs and regions within. Future missions providing continuous data, including solar wind plasma parameters alongside magnetic field measurements, could account for preexisting disturbed conditions and improve geomagnetic prediction accuracy. Our findings demonstrate the substantial value of real-time upstream solar wind measurements for enhancing geomagnetic forecasting accuracy at Earth and provide critical validation for future dedicated upstream space weather missions.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2026

On the magnetic field evolution of interplanetary coronal mass ejections from 0.07 to 5.4 au

A central question for understanding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) physics and improving space weather forecasting is how ICMEs evolve in interplanetary space. We have updated one of the most comprehensive in situ ICME catalogs to date, which now includes 1976 events from 11 space missions covering over 34 years, from December 1990 to August 2025. We have combined existing catalogs including magnetic obstacles and identified and added boundaries of an additional 807 (40.8%) events ourselves. With this catalog, we demonstrate the most extensive analysis to date of total ICME magnetic field values as a function of heliocentric distance. Parker Solar Probe has observed 6 ICMEs at $< 0.23$ au (until April 2025), and Solar Orbiter and BepiColombo have added more events near 0.3 au, bridging the major observational gap towards the solar corona. Our main result is that a single power law can describe the evolution of the mean total magnetic field (exponent value of $k=-1.57$) and maximum field ($k=-1.53$) for ICMEs with magnetic obstacles (MOs), from 0.07 to 5.4 au. Extending the power law to the solar photosphere reveals a strong inconsistency with magnetic field magnitudes observed in the quiet Sun and active regions by 2 and 4 orders of magnitude, respectively. We introduce a multipole-type power law with two exponents, $k_1=-1.57$, and $k_2=-6$, relating the ICME magnetic field magnitude to an average solar active region field strength. These results present important observational constraints for the evolution of ICMEs from the Sun to the heliosphere.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

Predicting CME Arrivals with Heliospheric Imagers from L5: A Data Assimilation Approach

The Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) mission has laid a foundation for advancing real-time space weather forecasting by enabling the evaluation of heliospheric imager (HI) data for predicting coronal mass ejection (CME) arrivals at Earth. This study employs the ELEvoHI model to assess how incorporating STEREO/HI data from the Lagrange 5 (L5) perspective can enhance prediction accuracy for CME arrival times and speeds. Our investigation, preparing for the upcoming ESA Vigil mission, explores whether the progressive incorporation of HI data in real-time enhances forecasting accuracy. The role of human tracking variability is evaluated by comparing predictions based on observations by three different scientists, highlighting the influence of manual biases on forecasting outcomes. Furthermore, the study examines the efficacy of deriving CME propagation directions using HI-specific methods versus coronagraph-based techniques, emphasising the trade-offs in prediction accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of HI data to significantly improve operational space weather forecasting when integrated with other observational platforms, especially when HI data from beyond 35° elongation are used. These findings pave the way for optimising real-time prediction methodologies, providing valuable groundwork for the forthcoming Vigil mission and enhancing preparedness for CME-driven space weather events.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

What Causes Errors in Wang-Sheeley-Arge Solar Wind Modeling at L1 ?

Previous ambient solar wind (SW) validation studies have reported on discrepancies between modeled and observed SW conditions at L1. They indicated that a major source of discrepancies stems from how we model the solar corona. Thus, enhancing predictive capabilities demands a thorough examination of coronal modeling. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model has been a workhorse model that provides the near-Sun SW conditions. An important component of it is the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model. This study analyzes 15 different Carrington Rotations(CRs), and presents detailed analysis of CR 2052 to identify WSA model settings that lead to successful and erroneous SW predictions at Earth. For the events studied, we show that increasing the models grid resolution improves the open-close boundary identification. This results in better predicting the onset and duration of high-speed streams (HSSs). In addition, we find an optimized source surface height (R$_{ss}$) (lying between 1.8-3.1 R$_{\odot}$) further enhances HSS prediction accuracy for the studied events. A detailed analysis shows that changes in R$_{ss}$, (a) changes the Great Circle Angular Distance (GCAD) maps (at the solar surface) of the associated coronal holes and (b) changes the foot-point locations of the magnetic connectivities to the sub-Earth locations. These factors change the near-Sun SW speed, that eventually leads to uncertainties in speeds near Earth. We also investigate the usefulness of coronal hole observations in constraining R$_{ss}$ and SW solutions at Earth, and highlight their underutilized value in guiding the selection of magnetic maps for improved ambient solar wind modeling at L1.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2025

First observations of a geomagnetic superstorm with a sub-L1 monitor

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is currently an unsolved problem. CMEs, responsible for the largest values of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, are the key driver of intense and extreme geomagnetic activity. Observations of southward interplanetary magnetic fields are currently only accessible directly through in situ measurements by spacecraft in the solar wind. On 10-12 May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm since 2003 took place, caused by five interacting CMEs. We clarify the relationship between the CMEs, their solar source regions, and the resulting signatures at the Sun-Earth L1 point observed by the ACE spacecraft at 1.00 AU. The STEREO-A spacecraft was situated at 0.956 AU and 12.6° west of Earth during the event, serving as a fortuitous sub-L1 monitor providing interplanetary magnetic field measurements of the solar wind. We demonstrate an extension of the prediction lead time, as the shock was observed 2.57 hours earlier at STEREO-A than at L1, consistent with the measured shock speed at L1, 710 km/s, and the radial distance of 0.04 AU. By deriving the geomagnetic indices based on the STEREO-A beacon data, we show that the strength of the geomagnetic storm would have been decently forecasted, with the modeled minimum SYM-H=-478.5 nT, underestimating the observed minimum by only 8%. Our study sets an unprecedented benchmark for future mission design using upstream monitoring for space weather prediction.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Flux rope modeling of the 2022 Sep 5 CME observed by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter from 0.07 to 0.69 au

As both Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) reach heliocentric distances closer to the Sun, they present an exciting opportunity to study the structure of CMEs in the inner heliosphere. We present an analysis of the global flux rope structure of the 2022 September 5 CME event that impacted PSP at a heliocentric distance of only 0.07 au and SolO at 0.69 au. We compare in situ measurements at PSP and SolO to determine global and local expansion measures, finding a good agreement between magnetic field relationships with heliocentric distance, but significant differences with respect to flux rope size. We use PSP/WISPR images as input to the ELEvoHI model, providing a direct link between remote and in situ observations; we find a large discrepancy between the resulting modeled arrival times, suggesting that the underlying model assumptions may not be suitable when using data obtained close to the Sun, where the drag regime is markedly different in comparison to larger heliocentric distances. Finally, we fit the SolO/MAG and PSP/FIELDS data independently with the 3DCORE model and find that many parameters are consistent between spacecraft, however, challenges are apparent when reconstructing a global 3D structure that aligns with arrival times at PSP and Solar Orbiter, likely due to the large radial and longitudinal separations between spacecraft. From our model results, it is clear the solar wind background speed and drag regime strongly affect the modeled expansion and propagation of CMEs and need to be taken into consideration.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2024

Probing Velocity Dispersion inside CMEs in Inner Corona: New Insights on CME Initiation

This work studies the kinematics of the leading edge and the core of 6 Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the combined field of view of Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP) on-board PRoject for On-Board Autonomy (PROBA-2) and the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph of the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO). We report, for the first time, on the existence of a critical height h$_\mathrm{c}$, which marks the onset of velocity dispersion inside the CME. This height for the studied events lies between 1.4-1.8 R$_{\odot}$, in the inner corona. We find the critical heights to be relatively higher for gradual CMEs, as compared to impulsive ones, indicating that the early initiation of these two classes might be different physically. We find several interesting imprints of the velocity dispersion on CME kinematics. The critical height is strongly correlated with the flux-rope minor radius and the mass of the CME. Also, the magnitude of velocity dispersion shows a reasonable positive correlation with the above two parameters. We believe these results will advance our understanding of CME initiation mechanisms and will help provide improved constraints to CME initiation models.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2024

Correcting Projection Effects in CMEs using GCS-based Large Statistics of Multi-viewpoint Observations

This study addresses the limitations of single-viewpoint observations of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) by presenting results from a 3D catalog of 360 CMEs during solar cycle 24, fitted using the GCS model. The dataset combines 326 previously analyzed CMEs and 34 newly examined events, categorized by their source regions into active region (AR) eruptions, active prominence (AP) eruptions, and prominence eruptions (PE). Estimates of errors are made using a bootstrapping approach. The findings highlight that the average 3D speed of CMEs is $\sim$1.3 times greater than the 2D speed. PE CMEs tend to be slow, with an average speed of 432 km $s^{-1}$. AR and AP speeds are higher, at 723 km $s^{-1}$ and 813 km $s^{-1}$, respectively, with the latter having fewer slow CMEs. The distinctive behavior of AP CMEs is attributed to factors like overlying magnetic field distribution or geometric complexities leading to less accurate GCS fits. A linear fit of projected speed to width gives a gradient of 2 km $s^{-1}deg^{-1}$, which increases to 5 km $s^{-1}deg^{-1}$ when the GCS-fitted `true' parameters are used. Notably, AR CMEs exhibit a high gradient of 7 km $s^{-1}deg^{-1}$, while AP CMEs show a gradient of 4 km $s^{-1}deg^{-1}$. PE CMEs, however, lack a significant speed-width relationship. We show that fitting multi-viewpoint CME images to a geometrical model such as GCS is important to study the statistical properties of CMEs, and can lead to a deeper insight into CME behavior that is essential for improving future space weather forecasting.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

A Coronal Mass Ejection Source Region Catalogue and their Associated Properties

The primary objective of this study is to connect the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to their source regions, primarily creating a CME source region (CSR) catalogue, and secondly probing into the influence the source regions have on different statistical properties of CMEs. We create a source region catalogue for 3327 CMEs from 1998 to 2017, thus capturing the different phases of cycle 23 and 24. The identified source regions are segregated into 3 classes, Active Regions (ARs), Prominence Eruptions (PEs) and Active Prominences (APs), while the CMEs are segregated into slow and fast based on their average projected speeds. We find the contribution of these three source region types to the occurrences of slow and fast CMEs to be different in the above period. A study of the distribution of average speeds reveals different power-laws for CMEs originating from different sources, and the power-law is different during the different phases of cycles 23 and 24. A study of statistical latitudinal deflections showed equator-ward deflections, while the magnitude of deflections again bears an imprint of the source regions. An East-West asymmetry is also noted, particularly in the rising phase of cycle 23, with the presence of active longitudes for the CMEs, with a preference towards the Western part of the Sun. Our results show that different aspects of CME kinematics bear a strong imprint of the source regions they originate from, thus indicating the existence of different ejection and/or propagation mechanisms of these CMEs.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Exploring the Impact of Imaging Cadence on Inferring CME Kinematics

The kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are essential for understanding their initiation mechanisms and predicting their planetary impact. Most acceleration and deceleration occur below 4 R$\odot$, which is crucial for initiation understanding. Furthermore, the kinematics of CMEs in the inner corona ($<$ 3 R$_\odot$) are closely related to their propagation in the outer corona and their eventual impact on Earth. Since the CME kinematics are mainly probed using coronagraph data, it is crucial to investigate how imaging cadence affects the precision of data analysis and conclusions drawn and also for determining the flexibility of designing observational campaigns with upcoming coronagraphs. We study ten CMEs observed by the K-Coronagraph of the MLSO. We manually track the CMEs using high cadence (15 s) white-light observations of K-Cor and vary the cadence as 30 s, 1 min, 2 min, and 5 min to study the impact of cadence on the kinematics. We also employed the bootstrapping method to estimate the fitting parameters. Our results indicate that the average velocity of the CMEs does not have a high dependence on the imaging cadence, while the average acceleration shows significant dependence on the same, with the confidence interval showing significant shifts for the average acceleration for different cadences. The decrease in cadence also influences the determination of acceleration onset time. We further find that it is difficult to find an optimum cadence to study all CMEs, as it is also influenced by the pixel resolution of the instrument and the speed of the CME. However, except for very slow CMEs (speeds less than 300 Kms$^{-1}$), our results indicate a cadence of 1 min to be reasonable for the study of their kinematics. The results of this work will be important in the planning of observational campaigns for the existing and upcoming missions that will observe the inner corona.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

On the Variation of Volumetric Evolution of CMEs from Inner to Outer Corona

Some of the major challenges faced in understanding the early evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are due to limited observations in the inner corona ($<\,3$ R$_{\odot}$) and the plane of sky measurements. In this work, we have thus extended the application of the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model to the inner coronal observations from the ground--based coronagraph K--Cor of the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO) along with the pair of observations from COR--1 onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). We study the rapid initial acceleration and width expansion phase of 5 CMEs in white-light in the lower heights. We also study the evolution of the modelled volume of these CMEs in inner corona and report for the first time, a power law dependence of the CME volume with distance from the Sun. We further find the volume of ellipsoidal leading front and the conical legs follow different power laws, thus indicating differential volume expansion through a CME. The study also reveals two distinct power laws for the total volume evolution of CMEs in the inner and outer corona, thus suggesting different expansion mechanisms at these different heights. These results besides aiding our current understanding on CME evolution, will also provide better constraints to CME initiation and propagation models. Also, since the loss of STEREO-B (and hence COR--1B data) from 2016, this modified GCS model presented here will still enable stereoscopy in the inner corona for the 3D study of CMEs in white-light.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2022

A Simple Radial Gradient Filter for Batch-Processing of Coronagraph Images

Images of the extended solar corona, as observed by white-light coronagraphs as observed by different white-light coronagraphs include the K- and F-corona and suffer from a radial variation in intensity. These images require separation of the two coronal components with some additional image-processing to reduce the intensity gradient and analyse the structures and processes occurring at different heights in the solar corona within the full field of view. To process these bulk coronagraph images with steep radial-intensity gradients, we have developed an algorithm: Simple Radial Gradient Filter (SiRGraF). This algorithm is based on subtracting a minimum background (F-corona) created using long-duration images and then dividing the resultant by a uniform intensity gradient image to enhance the K-corona. We demonstrate the utility of this algorithm to bring out the short time-scale transient structures of the corona. SiRGraF could be used to reveal and analyse such structures. It is not suitable for quantitative estimations based on intensity. We have successfully tested the algorithm on images of the LASCO-C2 onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and COR-2A onboard the STEREO with good signal to noise ratio (SNR) along with low-SNR images of STEREO/COR-1A and the KCoronagraph. We also compared the performance of SiRGraF with Normalising Radial Gradient Filter (NRGF). We found that when hundreds of images have to be processed, SiRGraF works faster than NRGF, providing similar brightness and contrast in the images and separating the transient features. Moreover, SiRGraF works better on low-SNR images of COR-1A than NRGF, providing better identification of dynamic coronal structures throughout the field of view. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the algorithm.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

An Insight into the Coupling of CME Kinematics in Inner and Outer Corona and the Imprint of Source Regions

Despite studying Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) for several years, we are yet to have a complete understanding of their kinematics. In this regard, the change in kinematics of the CMEs, as they travel from the inner corona ($<$ 3R$_\odot)$ to the higher heights is essential. We do a follow up statistical study of several 3D kinematic parameters of 59 CMEs studied by Majumdar et al. (2020). The source regions of these CMEs are identified and classified as Active Regions (ARs), Active Prominences (APs), and Prominence Eruptions (PEs). We study several statistical correlations between different kinematic parameters of the CMEs. We show that the average kinematic parameters change as they propagate from the inner to the outer corona, indicating the importance of the region where normally the common practice is to perform averaging. We also find that the parameters in the outer corona is highly influenced by those in the inner corona, thus indicating the importance of inner corona in the understanding of the kinematics. We further find that the source regions of the CMEs tend to have a distinct imprint on the statistical correlations between different kinematic parameters, and that an overall correlation tends to wash away this crucial information. The results of this work lends support towards possibly different dynamical classes for the CMEs from active regions and prominences which is manifested in their kinematics.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Imaging and Spectral Observations of a Type-II Radio Burst Revealing the Section of the CME-Driven Shock that Accelerates Electrons

We report on a multi-wavelength analysis of the 26 January 2014 solar eruption involving a coronal mass ejection (CME) and a Type-II radio burst, performed by combining data from various space-and ground-based instruments. An increasing standoff distance with height shows the presence of a strong shock, which further manifests itself in the continuation of the metric Type-II burst into the decameter-hectometric (DH) domain. A plot of speed versus position angle (PA) shows different points on the CME leading edge travelled with different speeds. From the starting frequency of the Type-II burst and white-light data, we find that the shock signature producing the Type-II burst might be coming from the flanks of the CME. Measuring the speeds of the CME flanks, we find the southern flank to be at a higher speed than the northern flank; further the radio contours from Type-II imaging data showed that the burst source was coming from the southern flank of the CME. From the standoff distance at the CME nose, we find that the local Alfven speed is close to the white-light shock speed, thus causing the Mach number to be small there. Also, the presence of a streamer near the southern flank appears to have provided additional favorable conditions for the generation of shock-associated radio emission. These results provide conclusive evidence that the Type-II emission could originate from the flanks of the CME, which in our study is from the the southern flank of the CME.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

Connecting 3D evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections to their Source Regions

Since Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the major drivers of space weather, it is crucial to study their evolution starting from the inner corona. In this work we use Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model to study the 3D evolution of 59 CMEs in the inner ($<$ 3R$_{\odot}$) and outer ($>$ 3R$_{\odot}$) corona using observations from COR-1 and COR-2 on-board Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. We identify the source regions of these CMEs and classify them as CMEs associated with Active Regions (ARs), Active Prominences (APs), and Prominence Eruptions (PEs). We find 27 $\%$ of CMEs show true expansion and 31 $\%$ show true deflections as they propagate outwards. Using 3D kinematic profiles of CMEs, we connect the evolution of true acceleration with the evolution of true width in the inner and outer corona. Thereby providing the observational evidence for the influence of the Lorentz force on the kinematics to lie in the height range of $2.5-3$ R$_{\odot}$. We find a broad range in the distribution of peak 3D speeds and accelerations ranging from 396 to 2465 km~s$^{-1}$ and 176 to 10922 m~s$^{-2}$ respectively with a long tail towards high values coming mainly from CMEs originating from ARs or APs. Further, we find the magnitude of true acceleration is be inversely correlated to its duration with a power law index of -1.19. We believe that these results will provide important inputs for the planning of upcoming space missions which will observe the inner corona and the models that study CME initiation and propagation.

astro-ph.SR↗