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Satish V. Ukkusuri

Publications and source records attributed to Satish V. Ukkusuri.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

On the Approximation of Cooperative Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) using Mean Field Control (MFC)

Mean field control (MFC) is an effective way to mitigate the curse of dimensionality of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problems. This work considers a collection of $N_{\mathrm{pop}}$ heterogeneous agents that can be segregated into $K$ classes such that the $k$-th class contains $N_k$ homogeneous agents. We aim to prove approximation guarantees of the MARL problem for this heterogeneous system by its corresponding MFC problem. We consider three scenarios where the reward and transition dynamics of all agents are respectively taken to be functions of $(1)$ joint state and action distributions across all classes, $(2)$ individual distributions of each class, and $(3)$ marginal distributions of the entire population. We show that, in these cases, the $K$-class MARL problem can be approximated by MFC with errors given as $e_1=\mathcal{O}(\frac{\sqrt{|\mathcal{X}|}+\sqrt{|\mathcal{U}|}}{N_{\mathrm{pop}}}\sum_{k}\sqrt{N_k})$, $e_2=\mathcal{O}(\left[\sqrt{|\mathcal{X}|}+\sqrt{|\mathcal{U}|}\right]\sum_{k}\frac{1}{\sqrt{N_k}})$ and $e_3=\mathcal{O}\left(\left[\sqrt{|\mathcal{X}|}+\sqrt{|\mathcal{U}|}\right]\left[\frac{A}{N_{\mathrm{pop}}}\sum_{k\in[K]}\sqrt{N_k}+\frac{B}{\sqrt{N_{\mathrm{pop}}}}\right]\right)$, respectively, where $A, B$ are some constants and $|\mathcal{X}|,|\mathcal{U}|$ are the sizes of state and action spaces of each agent. Finally, we design a Natural Policy Gradient (NPG) based algorithm that, in the three cases stated above, can converge to an optimal MARL policy within $\mathcal{O}(e_j)$ error with a sample complexity of $\mathcal{O}(e_j^{-3})$, $j\in\{1,2,3\}$, respectively.

cs.LG↗

Quantifying Spatial Homogeneity of Urban Road Networks via Graph Neural Networks

Quantifying the topological similarities of different parts of urban road networks (URNs) enables us to understand the urban growth patterns. While conventional statistics provide useful information about characteristics of either a single node's direct neighbors or the entire network, such metrics fail to measure the similarities of subnetworks considering local indirect neighborhood relationships. In this study, we propose a graph-based machine-learning method to quantify the spatial homogeneity of subnetworks. We apply the method to 11,790 urban road networks across 30 cities worldwide to measure the spatial homogeneity of road networks within each city and across different cities. We find that intra-city spatial homogeneity is highly associated with socioeconomic statuses such as GDP and population growth. Moreover, inter-city spatial homogeneity obtained by transferring the model across different cities, reveals the inter-city similarity of urban network structures originating in Europe, passed on to cities in the US and Asia. Socioeconomic development and inter-city similarity revealed using our method can be leveraged to understand and transfer insights across cities. It also enables us to address urban policy challenges including network planning in rapidly urbanizing areas and combating regional inequality.

physics.soc-ph↗

Mobilkit: A Python Toolkit for Urban Resilience and Disaster Risk Management Analytics using High Frequency Human Mobility Data

Increasingly available high-frequency location datasets derived from smartphones provide unprecedented insight into trajectories of human mobility. These datasets can play a significant and growing role in informing preparedness and response to natural disasters. However, limited tools exist to enable rapid analytics using mobility data, and tend not to be tailored specifically for disaster risk management. We present an open-source, Python-based toolkit designed to conduct replicable and scalable post-disaster analytics using GPS location data. Privacy, system capabilities, and potential expansions of \textit{Mobilkit} are discussed.

cs.CY↗

Location Data Reveals Disproportionate Disaster Impact Amongst the Poor: A Case Study of the 2017 Puebla Earthquake Using Mobilkit

Location data obtained from smartphones is increasingly finding use cases in disaster risk management. Where traditionally, CDR has provided the predominant digital footprint for human mobility, GPS data now has immense potential in terms of improved spatiotemporal accuracy, volume, availability, and accessibility. GPS data has already proven invaluable in a range of pre- and post-disaster use cases, such as quantifying displacement, measuring rates of return and recovery, evaluating accessibility to critical resources, planning for resilience. Despite its popularity and potential, however, the use of GPS location data in DRM is still nascent, with several use cases yet to be explored. In this paper, we consider the 2017 Puebla Earthquake in Mexico to (i) validate and expand upon post-disaster analysis applications using GPS data, and (ii) illustrate the use of a new toolkit, Mobilkit, to facilitate scalable, replicable extensions of this work for a wide range of disasters, including earthquakes, typhoons, flooding, and beyond.

physics.soc-ph↗

Spatiotemporal impacts of human activities and socio-demographics during the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S

Understanding influencing factors is essential for the surveillance and prevention of infectious diseases, and the factors are likely to vary spatially and temporally as the disease progresses. Taking daily cases and deaths data during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the U.S. as a case study, we develop a mobility-augmented geographically and temporally weighted regression (M-GTWR) model to quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of social-demographic factors and human activities on the COVID-19 dynamics. Different from the base GTWR model, we incorporate a mobility-adjusted distance weight matrix where travel mobility is used in addition to the spatial adjacency to capture the correlations among local observations. The model residuals suggest that the proposed model achieves a substantial improvement over other benchmark methods in addressing the spatiotemporal nonstationarity. Our results reveal that the impacts of social-demographic and human activity variables present significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In particular, a 1% increase in population density may lead to 0.63% and 0.71% more daily cases and deaths, and a 1% increase in the mean commuting time may result in 0.22% and 0.95% increases in daily cases and deaths. Although increased human activities will, in general, intensify the disease outbreak, we report that the effects of grocery and pharmacy-related activities are insignificant in areas with high population density. And activities at the workplace and public transit are found to either increase or decrease the number of cases and deaths, depending on particular locations. The results of our study establish a quantitative framework for identifying influencing factors during a disease outbreak, and the obtained insights may have significant implications in guiding the policy-making against infectious diseases.

physics.soc-ph↗

Resilience of Interdependent Urban Socio-Physical Systems using Large-Scale Mobility Data: Modeling Recovery Dynamics

Cities are complex systems comprised of socioeconomic systems relying on critical services delivered by multiple physical infrastructure networks. Due to interdependencies between social and physical systems, disruptions caused by natural hazards may cascade across systems, amplifying the impact of disasters. Despite the increasing threat posed by climate change and rapid urban growth, how to design interdependencies between social and physical systems to achieve resilient cities have been largely unexplored. Here, we study the socio-physical interdependencies in urban systems and their effects on disaster recovery and resilience, using large-scale mobility data collected from Puerto Rico during Hurricane Maria. We find that as cities grow in scale and expand their centralized infrastructure systems, the recovery efficiency of critical services improves, however, curtails the self-reliance of socio-economic systems during crises. Results show that maintaining self-reliance among social systems could be key in developing resilient urban socio-physical systems for cities facing rapid urban growth.

physics.soc-ph↗

Mobility-based contact exposure explains the disparity of spread of COVID-19 in urban neighborhoods

The rapid early spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. was experienced very differently by different socioeconomic groups and business industries. In this study, we study aggregate mobility patterns of New York City and Chicago to identify the relationship between the amount of interpersonal contact between people in urban neighborhoods and the disparity in the growth of positive cases among these groups. We introduce an aggregate Contact Exposure Index (CEI) to measure exposure due to this interpersonal contact and combine it with social distancing metrics to show its effect on positive case growth. With the help of structural equations modeling, we find that the effect of exposure on case growth was consistently positive and that it remained consistently higher in lower-income neighborhoods, suggesting a causal path of income on case growth via contact exposure. Using the CEI, schools and restaurants are identified as high-exposure industries, and the estimation suggests that implementing specific mobility restrictions on these point-of-interest categories are most effective. This analysis can be useful in providing insights for government officials targeting specific population groups and businesses to reduce infection spread as reopening efforts continue to expand across the nation.

econ.GN↗

Algorithms for Influence Maximization in Socio-Physical Networks

Given a directed graph (representing a social network), the influence maximization problem is to find k nodes which, when influenced (or activated), would maximize the number of remaining nodes that get activated. In this paper, we consider a more general version of the problem that includes an additional set of nodes, termed as physical nodes, such that a node in the social network is covered by one or more physical nodes. A physical node exists in one of two states at any time, opened or closed, and there is a constraint on the maximum number of physical nodes that can be opened. In this setting, an inactive node in the social network becomes active if it has enough active neighbors in the social network and if it is covered by at least one of the opened physical nodes. This problem arises in disaster recovery, where a displaced social group decides to return after a disaster only after enough groups in its social network return and some infrastructure components in its neighborhood are repaired. The general problem is NP-hard to approximate within any constant factor and thus we characterize optimal and approximation algorithms for special instances of the problem.

cs.SI↗

Policies for Multi-Agency Recovery of Physical Infrastructure After Disasters

We consider a scenario where multiple infrastructure components have been damaged after a disaster and the health value of each component continues to deteriorate if it is not being targeted by a repair agency, until it fails irreversibly. There are multiple agencies that seek to repair the components and there is an authority whose task is to allocate the components to the agencies within a given budget, so that the total number of components that are fully repaired by the agencies is maximized. We characterize the optimal policy for allocation and repair sequencing when the repair rates are sufficiently larger than the deterioration rates. For the case when the deterioration rates are larger than or equal to the repair rates, the rates are homogeneous across the components, and the costs charged by the entities for repair are equal, we characterize a policy for allocation and repair sequencing that permanently repairs at least half the number of components as that by an optimal policy.

eess.SY↗

Control Policies for Recovery of Interdependent Systems After Disruptions

We examine a control problem where the states of the components of a system deteriorate after a disruption, if they are not being repaired by an entity. There exist a set of dependencies in the form of precedence constraints between the components, captured by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The objective of the entity is to maximize the number of components whose states are brought back to the fully repaired state within a given time. We prove that the general problem is NP-hard, and therefore we characterize near-optimal control policies for special instances of the problem. We show that when the deterioration rates are larger than or equal to the repair rates and the precedence constraints are given by a DAG, it is optimal to continue repairing a component until its state reaches the fully recovered state before switching to repair any other component. Under the aforementioned assumptions and when the deterioration and the repair rates are homogeneous across all the components, we prove that the control policy that targets the healthiest component at each time-step while respecting the precedence and time constraints fully repairs at least half the number of components that would be fully repaired by an optimal policy. Finally, we prove that when the repair rates are sufficiently larger than the deterioration rates, the precedence constraints are given by a set of disjoint trees that each contain at most k nodes, and there is no time constraint, the policy that targets the component with the least value of health minus the deterioration rate at each time-step while respecting the precedence constraints fully repairs at least 1/k times the number of components that would be fully repaired by an optimal policy.

eess.SY↗

Modeling disease spreading with adaptive behavior considering local and global information dissemination

The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application scenario is that commuters may adjust their behavior upon observing the symptoms and countermeasures from their physical contacts during travel, thus altering the trajectories of a disease outbreak. We introduce the heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) approach in a multiplex network setting to jointly model the spreading dynamics of the infectious disease in the contact network and the dissemination dynamics of information in the observation network. The disease spreading is captured using the classic susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) process, while an SIS-alike process models the spread of awareness termed as unaware-aware-unaware (UAU). And the use of multiplex network helps capture the interplay between disease spreading and information dissemination, and how the dynamics of one may affect the other. Theoretical analyses suggest that there are three potential equilibrium states, depending on the percolation strength of diseases and information. The dissemination of information may help shape herd immunity among the population, thus suppressing and eradicating the disease outbreak. Finally, numerical experiments using the contact networks among metro travelers are provided to shed light on the disease and information dynamics in the real-world scenarios and gain insights on the resilience of transportation system against the risk of infectious diseases.

physics.soc-ph↗

Demand-Adaptive Route Planning and Scheduling for Urban Hub-based High-Capacity Mobility-on-Demand Services

In this study, we propose a three-stage framework for the planning and scheduling of high-capacity mobility-on-demand services (e.g., micro transit and flexible transit) at urban activity hubs. The proposed framework consists of (1) the route generation step to and from the activity hub with connectivity to existing transit systems, and (2) the robust route scheduling step which determines the vehicle assignment and route headway under demand uncertainty. Efficient exact and heuristic algorithms are developed for identifying the minimum number of routes that maximize passenger coverage, and a matching scheme is proposed to combine routes to and from the hub into roundtrips optimally. With the generated routes, the robust route scheduling problem is formulated as a two-stage robust optimization problem. Model reformulations are introduced to solve the robust optimization problem into the global optimum. In this regard, the proposed framework presents both algorithmic and analytic solutions for developing the hub-based transit services in response to the varying passenger demand over a short-time period. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, comprehensive numerical experiments are conducted for planning the HHMoD services at the JFK airport in New York City (NYC). The results show the superior performance of the proposed route generation algorithm to maximize the citywide coverage more efficiently. The results also demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of the robust route schedules under normal demand conditions and against worst-case-oriented realizations of passenger demand.

math.OC↗

Non-Compulsory Measures Sufficiently Reduced Human Mobility in Tokyo during the COVID-19 Epidemic

While large scale mobility data has become a popular tool to monitor the mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic, the impacts of non-compulsory measures in Tokyo, Japan on human mobility patterns has been under-studied. Here, we analyze the temporal changes in human mobility behavior, social contact rates, and their correlations with the transmissibility of COVID-19, using mobility data collected from more than 200K anonymized mobile phone users in Tokyo. The analysis concludes that by April 15th (1 week into state of emergency), human mobility behavior decreased by around 50%, resulting in a 70% reduction of social contacts in Tokyo, showing the effectiveness of non-compulsory measures. Furthermore, the reduction in data-driven human mobility metrics showed correlation with the decrease in estimated effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in Tokyo. Such empirical insights could inform policy makers on deciding sufficient levels of mobility reduction to contain the disease.

physics.soc-ph↗

Modeling the spread of infectious disease in urban areas with travel contagion

In this study, we develop the mathematical model to understand the coupling between the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases and the mobility dynamics through urban transportation systems. We first describe the mobility dynamics of the urban population as the process of leaving from home, traveling to and from the activity locations, and engaging in activities. We then embed the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) process over the mobility dynamics and develops the spatial SEIR model with travel contagion (Trans-SEIR), which explicitly accounts for contagions both during travel and during daily activities. We investigate the theoretical properties of the proposed model and show how activity contagion and travel contagion contribute to the average number of secondary infections. In the numerical experiments, we explore how the urban transportation system may alter the fundamental dynamics of the infectious disease, change the number of secondary infections, promote the synchronization of the disease across the city, and affect the peak of the disease outbreaks. The Trans-SEIR model is further applied to the understand the disease dynamics during the COVID-19 outbreak in New York City, where we show how the activity and travel contagion may be distributed and how effective travel control can be implemented with only limited resources. The Trans-SEIR model along with the findings in our study may have significant contributions to improving our understanding of the coupling between urban transportation and disease dynamics, the development of quarantine and control measures of disease system, and promoting the idea of disease-resilient urban transportation networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

Optimal Policies for Recovery of Multiple Systems After Disruptions

We consider a scenario where a system experiences a disruption, and the states (representing health values) of its components continue to reduce over time, unless they are acted upon by a controller. Given this dynamical setting, we consider the problem of finding an optimal control (or switching) sequence to maximize the sum of the weights of the components whose states are brought back to the maximum value. We first provide several characteristics of the optimal policy for the general (fully heterogeneous) version of this problem. We then show that under certain conditions on the rates of repair and deterioration, we can explicitly characterize the optimal control policy as a function of the states. When the deterioration rate (when not being repaired) is larger than or equal to the repair rate, and the deterioration and repair rates as well as the weights are homogeneous across all the components, the optimal control policy is to target the component that has the largest state value at each time step. On the other hand, if the repair rates are sufficiently larger than the deterioration rates, the optimal control policy is to target the component whose state minus the deterioration rate is least in a particular subset of components at each time step.

eess.SY↗

Scaling of contact networks for epidemic spreading in urban transit systems

Improved mobility not only contributes to more intensive human activities but also facilitates the spread of communicable disease, thus constituting a major threat to billions of urban commuters. In this study, we present a multi-city investigation of communicable diseases percolating among metro travelers. We use smart card data from three megacities in China to construct individual-level contact networks, based on which the spread of disease is modeled and studied. We observe that, though differing in urban forms, network layouts, and mobility patterns, the metro systems of the three cities share similar contact network structures. This motivates us to develop a universal generation model that captures the distributions of the number of contacts as well as the contact duration among individual travelers. This model explains how the structural properties of the metro contact network are associated with the risk level of communicable diseases. Our results highlight the vulnerability of urban mass transit systems during disease outbreaks and suggest important planning and operation strategies for mitigating the risk of communicable diseases.

physics.soc-ph↗

City2City: Translating Place Representations across Cities

Large mobility datasets collected from various sources have allowed us to observe, analyze, predict and solve a wide range of important urban challenges. In particular, studies have generated place representations (or embeddings) from mobility patterns in a similar manner to word embeddings to better understand the functionality of different places within a city. However, studies have been limited to generating such representations of cities in an individual manner and has lacked an inter-city perspective, which has made it difficult to transfer the insights gained from the place representations across different cities. In this study, we attempt to bridge this research gap by treating \textit{cities} and \textit{languages} analogously. We apply methods developed for unsupervised machine language translation tasks to translate place representations across different cities. Real world mobility data collected from mobile phone users in 2 cities in Japan are used to test our place representation translation methods. Translated place representations are validated using landuse data, and results show that our methods were able to accurately translate place representations from one city to another.

cs.LG↗

An optimal control approach of day-to-day congestion pricing for stochastic transportation networks

Congestion pricing has become an effective instrument for traffic demand management on road networks. This paper proposes an optimal control approach for congestion pricing for day-to-day timescale that incorporates demand uncertainty and elasticity. Travelers make the decision to travel or not based on the experienced system travel time in the previous day and traffic managers take tolling decisions in order to minimize the average system travel time over a long time horizon. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and analyze the problem to see if it satisfies conditions for conducting a satisfactory solution analysis. Such an analysis of MDPs is often dependent on the type of state space as well as on the boundedness of travel time functions. We do not constrain the travel time functions to be bounded and present an analysis centered around weighted sup-norm contractions that also holds for unbounded travel time functions. We find that the formulated MDP satisfies a set of assumptions to ensure Bellman's optimality condition. Through this result, the existence of the optimal average cost of the MDP is shown. A method based on approximate dynamic programming is proposed to resolve the implementation and computational issues of solving the control problem. Numerical results suggest that the proposed method efficiently solves the problem and produces accurate solutions.

eess.SY↗