arXiv subjects
Publications and source records attributed to Saul Perlmutter.
George Smoot (1945-2025) was a major figure in observational cosmology, particularly through his role in the precision measurement of the CMB dipole and the discovery of the primordial CMB temperature anisotropy as part of the COBE team. This collection of 33 essays from collaborators, colleagues, students, and friends offers varied insights into the work, career, and life of George Smoot.
Combined cosmological probes currently indicate that best-fit values in the $w_0-w_a$ parametrization of dynamical dark energy deviate from $\Lambda$CDM by $\sim3\sigma$. In this work, we present a supernova survey capable of measuring dynamical dark energy at the $>5\sigma$ level with just one year of data, starting in 2027. We first show that with the present values of $w_0$ and $w_a$, new SNe Ia at redshifts $z\lesssim0.6$ near dark energy-matter equality would add the most constraining power. This is well within reach of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Because cosmology measurements with SNe Ia quickly become systematics-limited, we focus on eliminating key systematics by using only a spectroscopically confirmed and volume-limited sample. In our proposed survey, SN alerts from Rubin would actively re-prioritize the scheduling of already-planned DESI tile visits. This would yield 7 500 near-peak transient spectra in one year without delaying DESI's primary survey. We forecast that if current best-fit $w_0-w_a$ values persist, combining just our volume-limited subset of 2 300 new SNe Ia at $z<0.3$ with current SN, BAO, and CMB data would push the tension with $\Lambda$CDM beyond $5\sigma$. This applies across a wide range of assumed uncertainties. To further circumvent systematics, we explore how DESI enables spectroscopic standardization via machine learning, offering a path toward a cosmology measurement independent of light-curve-based standardization. Finally, we discuss how early results from this program could inform future dark energy experiments.
The nature of dark matter and dark energy are among the central questions in cosmology. Strong gravitational lenses with multiple source planes provide a geometric probe of cosmology: the ratio of deflection angles at different redshifts depends only on angular-diameter distances, constraining the matter density $\Omega_m$ and the dark energy equation of state $w$. However, constraints from this technique have historically lagged behind those from the CMB, SNe Ia, and BAO. In this work, we present new cosmological constraints from the Carousel Lens, a cluster-scale lens with more than 40 extended images from 11 spectroscopically confirmed sources. Its relaxed core and rich set of extended images behind the main halo make it particularly suitable for cosmological inference. Using the GIGA-Lens pipeline, we construct a pixel-level lens model including six HST-detected sources and four mass components. From this model, we obtain $w$CDM constraints of $\Omega_m = 0.34^{+0.16}_{-0.13}$ and $w = -1.31^{+0.35}_{-0.32}$ from the Carousel Lens alone, accounting for both statistical and systematic uncertainties. We further project that including four additional known higher-redshift sources, assuming similar fractional uncertainties, could improve the constraining power by ~80%, bringing the precision close to that of the CMB and SNe Ia. For an evolving dark energy model ($w_0w_a$CDM), the Carousel Lens alone yields constraints comparable to the CMB, providing an independent and complementary probe alongside SN Ia and BAO. While currently systematic uncertainties dominate, which we quantify through simulations, our results demonstrate that relaxed multi-source-plane cluster lenses can deliver competitive cosmological constraints. Further improvements are expected from reductions in systematics and from incorporating higher-redshift sources (known and new) with high-resolution imaging.
The determination of distances using time-series photometry of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) relies on a ~5% empirical correction related to the properties of their host galaxies, e.g., global stellar mass. It is therefore crucial for unbiased cosmology inference that host galaxy properties be self-consistently determined across the full range of redshifts probed, which we undertake in this study for approximately 2000 SNe in the Union3 compilation (now Union3.1). We use aperture-matched, homogeneously-reduced, optical-infrared photometry from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys to derive global galaxy properties using the stellar population synthesis and SED-fitting code Prospector. We find that the host masses of $z<0.10$ SNe in Union3 were, on average, overestimated relative to the rest of the sample, while the opposite was true for $z<0.15$ SNe in Pantheon+. After correction, the two studies' average distance modulus estimated for low-redshift SNe, previously $>0.03$ mag discrepant, come into 0.01 mag agreement. We then update the UNITY SN analysis and find that the uncertainties on all standardization parameters shrink to 0.6-0.9x their previous sizes. For flat-$\Lambda$CDM, we find $\Omega_m=0.344^{+0.026}_{-0.025}$, a -0.3$\sigma$ shift from Union3. We then combine with measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) exactly as done by DESI DR2 and find $w_0=-0.719\pm0.084$, $w_a=-0.95^{+0.29}_{-0.26}$, corresponding to 3.4$\sigma$ evidence against a cosmological constant (down from 3.8$\sigma$). We also update the DESI combined probe analysis using our correction to Pantheon+ and the recent DES-SN5YR Dovekie recalibration, finding $3.2\sigma$ (up from 2.8$\sigma$) and 3.4$\sigma$ (down from 4.2$\sigma$) evidence against a cosmological constant in the $w_0w_a$ plane, altogether marking a significantly improved consistency across SN analyses.
SNe Ia have been used to provide key constraints on the equation-of-state parameter of dark energy. They are generally standardized under the assumption that they belong to a single population, with luminosities standardized in a continuous (roughly linear) fashion using the observed light-curve timescale. We update the Union3+UNITY1.5 SN cosmology analysis in light of increasing evidence for at least two core populations of SNe Ia and apply this "UNITY1.8" model to the updated "Union3.1" compilation (Hoyt et al. 2026). In addition to finding evidence for two different light-curve-shape (x1) distributions, we also find that the color distributions are different, that the light-curve-shape/magnitude standardization relations are different, and that these populations have different distributions across host-galaxy stellar mass and redshift. Importantly, we find that the residual host-mass luminosity step found in prior SN Ia cosmology analyses is now consistent with zero for unreddened SNe. We report a significantly tightened constraint on the split in the red-color standardization between SNe in low- and high-mass galaxies. We find that the estimated uncertainties shrink on cosmological parameters when fitting the same SNe assuming two modes versus one mode. We confirm similar trends in simulated data when running both versions of UNITY on the same (two-mode) simulations. For a flat LambdaCDM cosmology, we find Om = 0.334+0.025-0.024 from SNe alone; for a flat w0-wa cosmology, we find w0 = -0.760+0.084-0.082 and wa = -0.79+0.28-0.30 when including SNe, BAO, and CMB. In the 2D w0-wa plane, adding SNe to BAO and compressed CMB increases the tension with flat LambdaCDM from 2.1 sigma to 2.6 sigma.
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will carry out a wide-field imaging and slitless spectroscopic survey of Type Ia Supernovae to improve our understanding of dark energy. Crucial to this endeavor is obtaining supernova spectra uncontaminated by light from their host galaxies. However, obtaining such spectra is made more difficult by the inherent problem in wide-field slitless spectroscopic surveys: the blending of spectra of close objects. The spectrum of a supernova will blend with the host galaxy, even from regions distant from the supernova on the sky. If not properly removed, this contamination will introduce systematic bias when the supernova spectra are later used to determine intrinsic supernova parameters and to infer the parameters of dark energy. To address this problem we developed an algorithm that makes use of the spectroscopic observations of the host galaxy at all available observatory roll angles to reconstruct a three-dimensional (3d; 2d spatial, 1d spectral) representation of the underlying host galaxy that accurately matches the 2d slitless spectrum of the host galaxy when projected to an arbitrary rotation angle. We call this ``scene reconstruction''. The projection of the reconstructed scene can be subtracted from an observation of a supernova to remove the contamination from the underlying host. Using simulated Roman data, we show that our method has extremely small systematic errors and significantly less random noise than if we subtracted a single perfectly aligned spectrum of the host obtained before or after the supernova was visible.
The Lazuli Space Observatory is a 3-meter aperture astronomical facility designed for rapid-response observations and precision astrophysics across visible to near-infrared wavelengths (400-1700 nm bandpass). An off-axis, freeform telescope delivers diffraction-limited image quality (Strehl $>$0.8 at 633 nm) to three instruments across a wide, flat focal plane. The three instruments provide complementary capabilities: a Wide-field Context Camera (WCC) delivers multi-band imaging over a 35' $\times$ 12' footprint with high-cadence photometry; an Integral Field Spectrograph (IFS) provides continuous 400-1700 nm spectroscopy at R $\sim$ 100-500 for stable spectrophotometry; and an ExtraSolar Coronagraph (ESC) enables high-contrast imaging expected to reach raw contrasts of $10^{-8}$ and post-processed contrasts approaching $10^{-9}$. Operating from a 3:1 lunar-resonant orbit, Lazuli will respond to targets of opportunity in under four hours--a programmatic requirement designed to enable routine temporal responsiveness that is unprecedented for a space telescope of this size. Lazuli's technical capabilities are shaped around three broad science areas: (1) time-domain and multi-messenger astronomy, (2) stars and planets, and (3) cosmology. These capabilities enable a potent mix of science spanning gravitational wave counterpart characterization, fast-evolving transients, Type Ia supernova cosmology, high-contrast exoplanet imaging, and spectroscopy of exoplanet atmospheres. While these areas guide the observatory design, Lazuli is conceived as a general-purpose facility capable of supporting a wide range of astrophysical investigations, with open time for the global community. We describe the observatory architecture and capabilities in the preliminary design phase, with science operations anticipated following a rapid development cycle from concept to launch. [Abstract abridged]
The upcoming Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is set to conduct a generation-defining SN Ia cosmology measurement with its High Latitude Time Domain Survey (HLTDS). However, between optical elements, exposure times, cadences, and survey areas, there are many survey parameters to consider. This work was part of a Roman Project Infrastructure Team effort to help the Core Community Survey (CCS) Committee finalize the HLTDS recommendation to the Roman Observations Time Allocation Committee. We simulate 1,000 surveys, with and without a conservative (volume-limited) version of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Deep Drilling Field SNe Ia, and compute Fisher-matrix-analysis Dark Energy Task Force Figures of Merit (FoM, based on w0-wa constraints) for each. We investigate which survey parameters correlate with FoM, as well as the dependence of the FoM values on calibration uncertainties and the SN dispersion model. The exact optimum depends on the assumed dispersion model and whether Rubin DDF SNe Ia are also considered, but ~20% time in prism, ~30--40% time in Wide imaging and the remainder in Deep imaging seems most promising. We also advocate for "interlaced" cadences where not every filter is used in every cadence step to reduce overheads while maintaining a good cadence and increasing the number of filters compared to the Rose et al. (2021) reference survey (the prism has proportionately lower overheads and can be used for each cadence step). We show simulated light curves and spectra for the baseline HLTDS CCS recommendation and release distance-modulus covariance matrices for all surveys to the community.
Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the universe's expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of two in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN datasets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date "Union" compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 datasets ("Union3"). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of ten, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape and color populations and standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7--2.6 sigma tension with LambdaCDM and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > -1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.
New development approaches, including launch vehicles and advances in sensors, computing, and software, have lowered the cost of entry into space, and have enabled a revolution in low-cost, high-risk Small Satellite (SmallSat) missions. To bring about a similar transformation in larger space telescopes, it is necessary to reconsider the full paradigm of space observatories. Here we will review the history of space telescope development and cost drivers, and describe an example conceptual design for a low cost 6.5 m optical telescope to enable new science when operated in space at room temperature. It uses a monolithic primary mirror of borosilicate glass, drawing on lessons and tools from decades of experience with ground-based observatories and instruments, as well as flagship space missions. It takes advantage, as do large launch vehicles, of increased computing power and space-worthy commercial electronics in low-cost active predictive control systems to maintain stability. We will describe an approach that incorporates science and trade study results that address driving requirements such as integration and testing costs, reliability, spacecraft jitter, and wavefront stability in this new risk-tolerant "LargeSat" context.
We present an analysis of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe~Ia) from both the Carnegie Supernova Project~I (CSP-I) and II (CSP-II), and extend the Hubble diagram from the optical to the near-infrared wavelengths ($uBgVriYJH$). We calculate the Hubble constant, $H_0$, using various distance calibrators: Cepheids, Tip of the Red Giant Branch (TRGB), and Surface Brightness Fluctuations (SBF). Combining all methods of calibrations, we derive $\rm H_0=71.76 \pm 0.58 \ (stat) \pm 1.19 \ (sys) \ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}$ from $B$-band, and $\rm H_0=73.22 \pm 0.68 \ (stat) \pm 1.28 \ (sys) \ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}$ from $H$-band. By assigning equal weight to the Cepheid, TRGB, and SBF calibrators, we derive the systematic errors required for consistency in the first rung of the distance ladder, resulting in a systematic error of $1.2\sim 1.3 \rm \ km \ s^{-1} \ Mpc^{-1}$ in $H_0$. As a result, relative to the statistics-only uncertainty, the tension between the late-time $H_0$ we derive by combining the various distance calibrators and the early-time $H_0$ from the Cosmic Microwave Background is reduced. The highest precision in SN~Ia luminosity is found in the $Y$ band ($0.12\pm0.01$ mag), as defined by the intrinsic scatter ($\sigma_{int}$). We revisit SN~Ia Hubble residual-host mass correlations and recover previous results that these correlations do not change significantly between the optical and the near-infrared wavelengths. Finally, SNe~Ia that explode beyond 10 kpc from their host centers exhibit smaller dispersion in their luminosity, confirming our earlier findings. Reduced effect of dust in the outskirt of hosts may be responsible for this effect.
We motivate the cosmological science case of measuring Type Ia supernovae with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope as part of the High Latitude Time Domain Survey. We discuss previously stated requirements for the science, and a baseline survey strategy. We discuss the various areas that must still be optimized and point to the other white papers that consider these topics in detail. Overall, the baseline case should enable an exquisite measurement of dark energy using SNe Ia from z=0.1 to z>2, and further optimization should only strengthen this once-in-a-generation experiment.
The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope's (RST) Wide Field Imager (WFI) is equipped with a slitless prism that can be used for spectroscopic discovery and follow-up of explosive transients at high redshift as part of its High Latitude Time Domain Survey. This is new and unique spectroscopic capability, not only for its original purpose for cosmology, but also for other types of explosive transients. This white paper is intended to help make this new capability more clear to the community. The depth of the RST prism compared to ground-based spectrographs is explored, showing that the RST prism will be unrivaled in the observer-frame NIR. The influence of the selected sky locations on the speed and homogeneity of a RST prism survey is also estimated. This unique new capability should be considered when balancing the HLTDS time devoted to cadenced imaging and spectroscopy.
The current proposal for the High Latitude Time Domain Survey (HLTDS) is two tiers (wide and deep) of multi-band imaging and prism spectroscopy with a cadence of five days (Rose et al., 2021). The five-day cadence is motivated by the desire to measure mid-redshift SNe where time dilation is modest as well as to better photometrically characterize the transients detected. This white paper does not provide a conclusion as to the best cadence for the HLTDS. Rather, it collects a set of considerations that should be used for a careful study of cadence by a future committee optimizing the Roman survey. This study should optimize the HLTDS for both SN Ia cosmology and other transient science.
In this white paper, we review five top considerations for selecting locations of the fields of the Roman High-latitude Time Domain Survey. Based on these considerations, we recommend Akari Deep Field South (ADFS)/Euclid Deep Field South (EDFS) in the Southern Hemisphere has it avoids bright stars, has minimal Milky Way dust, is in Roman Continuous viewing zone, overlaps with multiple past and future surveys, and minimal zodiacal background variation. In the North, Extended Groth Strip (EGS) is good except for its zodiacal variation and Supernova/Acceleration Probe North (SNAP-N) and European Large Area Infrared Space Observatory Survey-North 1 (ELAIS N-1) are good except for their synergistic archival data.
We present the largest and most homogeneous collection of near-infrared (NIR) spectra of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): 339 spectra of 98 individual SNe obtained as part of the Carnegie Supernova Project-II. These spectra, obtained with the FIRE spectrograph on the 6.5 m Magellan Baade telescope, have a spectral range of 0.8--2.5 $\mu$m. Using this sample, we explore the NIR spectral diversity of SNe Ia and construct a template of spectral time series as a function of the light-curve-shape parameter, color stretch $s_{BV}$. Principal component analysis is applied to characterize the diversity of the spectral features and reduce data dimensionality to a smaller subspace. Gaussian process regression is then used to model the subspace dependence on phase and light-curve shape and the associated uncertainty. Our template is able to predict spectral variations that are correlated with $s_{BV}$, such as the hallmark NIR features: Mg II at early times and the $H$-band break after peak. Using this template reduces the systematic uncertainties in K-corrections by ~90% compared to those from the Hsiao template. These uncertainties, defined as the mean K-correction differences computed with the color-matched template and observed spectra, are on the level of $4\times10^{-4}$ mag on average. This template can serve as the baseline spectral energy distribution for light-curve fitters and can identify peculiar spectral features that might point to compelling physics. The results presented here will substantially improve future SN~Ia cosmological experiments, for both nearby and distant samples.
We investigate the potential of using a sample of very high-redshift ($2\lesssim z \lesssim6$) (VHZ) Type Ia supernovae (SNe~Ia) attainable by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on constraining cosmological parameters. At such high redshifts, the age of the universe is young enough that the VHZ SNIa sample comprises the very first SNe~Ia of the universe, with progenitors among the very first generation of low mass stars that the universe has made. We show that the VHZ SNe~Ia can be used to disentangle systematic effects due to the luminosity distance evolution with redshifts intrinsic to SNIa standardization. Assuming that the systematic evolution can be described by a linear or logarithmic formula, we found that the coefficients of this dependence can be determined accurately and decoupled from cosmological models. Systematic evolution as large as 0.15 mag and 0.45 mag out to $z=5$ can be robustly separated from popular cosmological models for the linear and logarithmic evolution, respectively. The VHZ SNe~Ia will lay the foundation for quantifying the systematic redshift evolution of SNIa luminosity distance scales. When combined with SNIa surveys at comparatively lower redshifts, the VHZ SNe~Ia allow for a precise measurement of the history of the expansion of the universe from $z\sim 0$ to the epoch approaching reionization.
This work presents a set of studies addressing the use of the low-dispersion slitless prism on Roman for SN spectroscopy as part of the Roman High Latitude Time Domain Survey (HLTDS). We find SN spectral energy distributions including prism data carry more information than imaging alone at fixed total observing time, improving redshift measurements and sub-typing of SNe. The Roman field of view will typically include ~ 10 SNe Ia at observable redshifts at a range of phases (the multiplexing of host galaxies is much greater as they are always present), building up SN spectral time series without targeted observations. We show that fitting these time series extracts more information than stacking the data over all the phases, resulting in a large improvement in precision for SN Ia subclassification measurements. A prism on Roman thus significantly enhances scientific opportunities for the mission, and is particularly important for the Roman SN cosmology program to provide the systematics-controlled measurement that is a focus of the Roman dark energy mission. Optimizing the prism parameters, we conclude that the blue cutoff should be set as blue as the prism image quality allows (~ 7500A), the red cutoff should be set to ~ 18000A to minimize thermal background, and the two-pixel dispersion should be >~ 70.