arXiv subjects

Saumya Bhatnagar

Publications and source records attributed to Saumya Bhatnagar.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Scalable, Likelihood-Free Calibration of Ice-Sheet Models with Deep Diffusion Emulators and Feature Matching

The Antarctic ice sheet is a major source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections, and physical simulators such as the PSU3D-ICE model are essential for studying its evolution. Calibrating them against observations is challenging: the simulator outputs and observed ice-thickness fields are high-dimensional, spatially dependent, and semi-continuous, with a large point mass at zero denoting ice-free regions. These features make conventional Gaussian-process emulation and likelihood-based calibration ill-suited and computationally infeasible at full resolution. We propose the sequential calibration method guided by a diffusion model and a Siamese network (SC-DS), a fully neural framework. For emulation, we develop a single conditional diffusion model that jointly generates the binary ice presence--absence pattern and the continuous thickness field, using global and local conditioning to represent how the input parameters shape the output. Because the emulator induces an intractable likelihood, our likelihood-free calibration replaces the hand-chosen distance and tolerance of approximate Bayesian computation with a probabilistic acceptance rule learned by an iteratively retrained Siamese network, together with a data--model discrepancy adjustment. Applied to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, SC-DS matches the accuracy of state-of-the-art Gaussian-process calibration at a fraction of its computational cost and scales to the full-resolution domain, where existing methods become intractable.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

An Agent-Based Fleet Management Model for First- and Last-Mile Services

With the growth of cars and car-sharing applications, commuters in many cities, particularly developing countries, are shifting away from public transport. These shifts have affected two key stakeholders: transit operators and first- and last-mile (FLM) services. Although most cities continue to invest heavily in bus and metro projects to make public transit attractive, ridership in these systems has often failed to reach targeted levels. FLM service providers also experience lower demand and revenues in the wake of shifts to other means of transport. Effective FLM options are required to prevent this phenomenon and make public transport attractive for commuters. One possible solution is to forge partnerships between public transport and FLM providers that offer competitive joint mobility options. Such solutions require prudent allocation of supply and optimised strategies for FLM operations and ride-sharing. To this end, we build an agent- and event-based simulation model which captures interactions between passengers and FLM services using statecharts, vehicle routing models, and other trip matching rules. An optimisation model for allocating FLM vehicles at different transit stations is proposed to reduce unserved requests. Using real-world metro transit demand data from Bengaluru, India, the effectiveness of our approach in improving FLM connectivity and quantifying the benefits of sharing trips is demonstrated.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiment is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data such as large time series due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the non-identifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges we propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long-short term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the 'learning with noise' idea we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with WRF-hydro model we show that our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

stat.ML↗