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Saurabh Amin

Publications and source records attributed to Saurabh Amin.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Reducing Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization via Structured Function Approximation

Contextual Stochastic Bilevel Optimization (CSBO) extends standard stochastic bilevel optimization (SBO) by incorporating context-dependent lower-level problems. CSBO problems are generally intractable since existing methods require solving a distinct lower-level problem for each sampled context, resulting in prohibitive sample and computational complexity, in addition to relying on impractical conditional sampling oracles. We propose a reduction framework that approximates the lower-level solutions using expressive basis functions, thereby decoupling the lower-level dependence on context and transforming CSBO into a standard SBO problem solvable using only joint samples from the context and noise distribution. First, we show that this reduction preserves hypergradient accuracy and yields an $ε$-stationary solution to CSBO. Then, we relate the sample complexity of the reduced problem to simple metrics of the basis. This establishes sufficient criteria for a basis to yield $ε$-stationary solutions with a near-optimal complexity of $\widetilde{O}(ε^{-3})$, matching the best-known rate for standard SBO up to logarithmic factors. Moreover, we show that Chebyshev polynomials provide a concrete and efficient choice of basis that satisfies these criteria for a broad class of problems. Empirical results on inverse and hyperparameter optimization demonstrate that our approach outperforms CSBO baselines in convergence, sample efficiency, and memory usage.

math.OC↗

Watts and Drops: Co-Scheduling Power and Water in Desalination Plants

We develop a mathematical framework to jointly schedule water and electricity in a profit-maximizing renewable colocated water desalination plant that integrates both thermal and membrane based technologies. The price-taking desalination plant sells desalinated water to a water utility at a given price and engages in bidirectional electricity transactions with the grid, purchasing or selling power based on its net electricity demand. We show that the optimal scheduling policy depends on the plant's internal renewable generation and follows a simple threshold structure. Under the optimal policy, thermal based water output decreases monotonically with renewable output, while membrane based water output increases monotonically. We characterize the structure and intuition behind the threshold policy and examine key special properties.

eess.SY↗

Power-Gas Infrastructure Planning under Weather-induced Supply and Demand Uncertainties

Implementing economy-wide decarbonization strategies based on decarbonizing the power grid via variable renewable energy (VRE) expansion and electrification of end-uses requires new approaches for energy infrastructure planning that consider, among other factors, weather-induced uncertainty in demand and VRE supply. An energy planning model that fails to account for these uncertainties can hinder the intended transition efforts to a low-carbon grid and increase the risk of supply shortage especially during extreme weather conditions. Here, we consider the generation and transmission expansion problem of joint power-gas infrastructure and operations planning under the uncertainty of both demand and renewable supply. We propose two distributionally robust optimization approaches based on moment (MDRO) and Wasserstein distance (WDRO) ambiguity sets to endogenize these uncertainties and account for the change in the underlying distribution of these parameters that is caused by the climate change, among other factors. Furthermore, our model considers the risk-aversion of the energy planners in the modeling framework via the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) metric. An equivalent mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulation of both modeling frameworks is presented, and a computationally efficient approximation scheme to obtain near-optimal solutions is proposed. We demonstrate the resulting DRO planning models and solution strategy via a New England case study under different levels of end-use electrification and decarbonization targets. Our experiments systematically explore different modeling aspects and compare the DRO models with stochastic programming (SP) results.

eess.SY↗

When Do Consumers Lose from Variable Electricity Pricing?

Time-varying electricity pricing better reflects the varying cost of electricity compared to flat-rate pricing. Variations between peak and off-peak costs are increasing due to weather variation, renewable intermittency, and increasing electrification of demand. Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that variable pricing can lower electricity supply costs and reduce grid stress. However, the distributional impacts, particularly on low-income consumers, remain understudied. This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyze how consume heterogeneity affects welfare outcomes when electricity markets transition from flat-rate to time-varying pricing, considering realistic assumptions about heterogeneous consumer demand, supply costs, and utility losses from unmet consumption. We derive sufficient conditions for identifying when consumers lose utility from pricing reforms and compare welfare effects across consumer types. Our findings reveal that consumer vulnerability depends on the interaction of consumption timing, demand flexibility capabilities, and price sensitivity levels. Consumers with high peak-period consumption and inflexible demand, characteristics often associated with low-income households, are most vulnerable to welfare losses. Critically, we demonstrate that demand flexibility provides welfare protection only when coincident with large price changes. Our equilibrium analysis reveals that aggregate flexibility patterns generate spillover effects through pricing mechanisms, with peak periods experiencing greater price changes when they have less aggregate flexibility, potentially concentrating larger price increases among vulnerable populations that have a limited ability to respond. These findings suggest that variable pricing policies should be accompanied by targeted policies ensuring equitable access to demand response capabilities and pricing benefits.

econ.GN↗

What Data Enables Optimal Decisions? An Exact Characterization for Linear Optimization

We study the fundamental question of how informative a dataset is for solving a given decision-making task. In our setting, the dataset provides partial information about unknown parameters that influence task outcomes. Focusing on linear programs, we characterize when a dataset is sufficient to recover an optimal decision, given an uncertainty set on the cost vector. Our main contribution is a sharp geometric characterization that identifies the directions of the cost vector that matter for optimality, relative to the task constraints and uncertainty set. We further develop a practical algorithm that, for a given task, constructs a minimal or least-costly sufficient dataset. Our results reveal that small, well-chosen datasets can often fully determine optimal decisions -- offering a principled foundation for task-aware data selection.

math.OC↗

A Deep Generative Learning Approach for Two-stage Adaptive Robust Optimization

Two-stage adaptive robust optimization (ARO) is a powerful approach for planning under uncertainty, balancing first-stage decisions with recourse decisions made after uncertainty is realized. To account for uncertainty, modelers typically define a simple uncertainty set over which potential outcomes are considered. However, classical methods for defining these sets unintentionally capture a wide range of unrealistic outcomes, resulting in overly-conservative and costly planning in anticipation of unlikely contingencies. In this work, we introduce AGRO, a solution algorithm that performs adversarial generation for two-stage adaptive robust optimization using a variational autoencoder. AGRO generates high-dimensional contingencies that are simultaneously adversarial and realistic, improving the robustness of first-stage decisions at a lower planning cost than standard methods. To ensure generated contingencies lie in high-density regions of the uncertainty distribution, AGRO defines a tight uncertainty set as the image of "latent" uncertainty sets under the VAE decoding transformation. Projected gradient ascent is then used to maximize recourse costs over the latent uncertainty sets by leveraging differentiable optimization methods. We demonstrate the cost-efficiency of AGRO by applying it to both a synthetic production-distribution problem and a real-world power system expansion setting. We show that AGRO outperforms the standard column-and-constraint algorithm by up to 1.8% in production-distribution planning and up to 11.6% in power system expansion.

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Addressing misspecification in contextual optimization

We study a linear contextual optimization problem where a decision maker has access to historical data and contextual features to learn a cost prediction model aimed at minimizing decision error. We adopt the predict-then-optimize framework for this analysis. Given that perfect model alignment with reality is often unrealistic in practice, we focus on scenarios where the chosen hypothesis set is misspecified. In this context, it remains unclear whether current contextual optimization approaches can effectively address such model misspecification. In this paper, we present a novel integrated learning and optimization approach designed to tackle model misspecification in contextual optimization. This approach offers theoretical generalizability, tractability, and optimality guarantees, along with strong practical performance. Our method involves minimizing a tractable surrogate loss that aligns with the performance value from cost vector predictions, regardless of whether the model is misspecified, and can be optimized in reasonable time. To our knowledge, no previous work has provided an approach with such guarantees in the context of model misspecification.

math.OC↗

Optimal Interventions in Coupled-Activity Network Games: Application to Sustainable Forestry

We address the challenge of promoting sustainable practices in production forests managed by strategic entities (agents) that harvest agricultural commodities under concession agreements. These entities engage in activities that either follow sustainable production practices or expand into protected forests for agricultural growth, which leads to unsustainable production. Our study uses a network game model to design optimal pricing policies that incentivize sustainability and discourage environmentally harmful practices. Specifically, we model interactions between agents, capturing both intra-activity (within a single production activity) and cross-activity (between sustainable and unsustainable practices) influences on agent behavior. We solve the problem of maximizing welfare while adhering to budgetary and environmental constraints - particularly, limiting the aggregate level of unsustainable effort across all agents. Although this problem is NP-hard in general, we derive closed-form solutions for various realistic scenarios, including cases with regionally uniform pricing and the use of sustainability premiums or penalties. Remarkably, we find that it is possible to achieve both welfare improvement and reduction in unsustainable practices without reducing any agent's utility, even when there is no external budget for increasing premiums. We introduce a novel node centrality measure to identify agents whose decisions most influence aggregate unsustainable effort. Empirical validation confirms our theoretical findings, offering actionable insights for policymakers aiming to promote sustainable resource management in agricultural commodity markets. Our work has broader implications for addressing sustainability challenges in the presence of network effects, offering a framework for designing incentive structures that align economic objectives with environmental stewardship.

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Cost-effective Planning of Decarbonized Power-Gas Infrastructure to Meet the Challenges of Heating Electrification

Building heat electrification is central to economy-wide decarbonization efforts and directly affects energy infrastructure planning through increasing electricity demand and reducing the building sector's use of gas infrastructure that also serves the power sector. Here, we develop a modeling framework to quantify end-use demand for electricity and gas in the buildings sector under various electrification pathways and evaluate their impact on co-optimized bulk power-gas infrastructure investments and operations under deep decarbonization scenarios. Applying the framework to study the U.S. New England region in 2050 across 20 weather scenarios, we find high electrification of the residential sector can increase sectoral peak and total electricity demands by up to 56-158% and 41-59% respectively relative to business-as-usual projections. Employing demand-side measures like building envelope improvements under high electrification, however, can reduce the magnitude and weather sensitivity of peak load as well as induce overall efficiency gains, reducing the combined residential sector energy demand for power and gas by 28-30% relative to the present day. Notably, a combination of high electrification and envelope improvements yields the lowest bulk power-gas system cost outcomes. Accounting for \bt{midstream} methane emissions from gas supply chain increase the reliance on low-carbon fuels, which indirectly improves the cost-effectiveness of end-use electrification. Similarly, we find that demand flexibility programs can reduce the total system cost by up to 6.3%.

eess.SY↗

Integrated Bundling and Pricing of Unique Items

Retailers have significant potential to improve recommendations through strategic bundling and pricing. By taking into account different types of customers and their purchasing decisions, retailers can better accommodate customer preferences and increase revenues while reducing unsold items. We consider a retailer seeking to maximize its expected revenue by selling unique and non-replenishable items over a finite horizon. The retailer may offer each item individually or as part of a bundle. Our approach provides tractable bounds on expected revenue that are tailored to unique items and suitable for a rich class of choice models. We leverage these bounds to propose a bundling algorithm that efficiently selects bundles in a column-generation fashion. Under the multinomial logit model, our bounds are asymptotically optimal as the expected number of arrivals $λ$ grows, yielding a performance bound in $O(1/λ)$. In contrast, we show that both the static and fluid approximations are not asymptotically optimal. Moreover, we propose a greedy algorithm that allows for tractable dynamic bundling. We show through numerical experiments that third-party logistics providers (3PL) in particular can benefit from improved load recommendations and pricing decisions. By not only minimizing shipping costs, but also reducing empty miles and suggesting options that better match carrier preferences, our methodology benefits digital brokerage platforms while contributing to the transportation industry's sustainability efforts. In a Texas Triangle simulation powered by Uber Freight data, dynamic bundling and pricing reduces costs by 6%, empty miles by 25%, and more than halves the number of unmatched loads over dynamic pricing alone.

math.OC↗

Learning-assisted Stochastic Capacity Expansion Planning: A Bayesian Optimization Approach

Solving large-scale capacity expansion problems (CEPs) is central to cost-effective decarbonization of regional-scale energy systems. To ensure the intended outcomes of CEPs, modeling uncertainty due to weather-dependent variable renewable energy (VRE) supply and energy demand becomes crucially important. However, the resulting stochastic optimization models are often less computationally tractable than their deterministic counterparts. Here, we propose a learning-assisted approximate solution method to tractably solve two-stage stochastic CEPs. Our method identifies low-cost planning decisions by constructing and solving a sequence of tractable temporally aggregated surrogate problems. We adopt a Bayesian optimization approach to searching the space of time series aggregation hyperparameters and compute approximate solutions that minimize costs on a validation set of supply-demand projections. Importantly, we evaluate solved planning outcomes on a held-out set of test projections. We apply our approach to generation and transmission expansion planning for a joint power-gas system spanning New England. We show that our approach yields an estimated cost savings of up to 3.8% in comparison to benchmark time series aggregation approaches.

eess.SY↗

Information Design for Hybrid Work under Infectious Disease Transmission Risk

We study a planner's provision of information to manage workplace occupancy when strategic workers (agents) face risk of infectious disease transmission. The planner implements an information mechanism to signal information about the underlying risk of infection at the workplace. Agents update their belief over the risk parameter using this information and choose to work in-person or remotely. We address the design of the optimal signaling mechanism that best aligns the workplace occupancy with the planner's preference (i.e., maintaining safe capacity limits and operational efficiency at workplace). For various forms of planner preferences, we show numerical and analytical proof that interval-based information mechanisms are optimal. These mechanisms partition the continuous domain of the risk parameter into disjoint intervals and provision information based on interval-specific probability distributions over a finite set of signals. When the planner seeks to achieve an occupancy that lies in one of finitely many pre-specified ranges independent of the underlying risk, we provide an optimal mechanism that uses at most two intervals. On the other hand, when the preference on the occupancy is risk-dependent, we show that an approximately optimal interval-based mechanism can be computed efficiently. We bound the approximation loss for preferences that are expressed through a Lipschitz continuous function of both occupancy and risk parameter. We provide examples that demonstrate the improvement of proposed signaling mechanisms relative to the common benchmarks in information provision. Our findings suggest that information provision over the risk of disease transmission is an effective intervention for maintaining desirable occupancy levels at the workplace.

cs.GT↗

Convergence and Stability of Coupled Belief--Strategy Learning Dynamics in Continuous Games

We propose a learning dynamics to model how strategic agents repeatedly play a continuous game while relying on an information platform to learn an unknown payoff-relevant parameter. In each time step, the platform updates a belief estimate of the parameter based on players' strategies and realized payoffs using Bayes's rule. Then, players adopt a generic learning rule to adjust their strategies based on the updated belief. We present results on the convergence of beliefs and strategies and the properties of convergent fixed points of the dynamics. We obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of globally stable fixed points. We also provide sufficient conditions for the local stability of fixed points. These results provide an approach to analyzing the long-term outcomes that arise from the interplay between Bayesian belief learning and strategy learning in games, and enable us to characterize conditions under which learning leads to a complete information equilibrium.

cs.MA↗

Uncertainty Informed Optimal Resource Allocation with Gaussian Process based Bayesian Inference

We focus on the problem of uncertainty informed allocation of medical resources (vaccines) to heterogeneous populations for managing epidemic spread. We tackle two related questions: (1) For a compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model of epidemic spread, how can we estimate and integrate parameter uncertainty into resource allocation decisions? (2) How can we computationally handle both nonlinear ODE constraints and parameter uncertainties for a generic stochastic optimization problem for resource allocation? To the best of our knowledge current literature does not fully resolve these questions. Here, we develop a data-driven approach to represent parameter uncertainty accurately and tractably in a novel stochastic optimization problem formulation. We first generate a tractable scenario set by estimating the distribution on ODE model parameters using Bayesian inference with Gaussian processes. Next, we develop a parallelized solution algorithm that accounts for scenario-dependent nonlinear ODE constraints. Our scenario-set generation procedure and solution approach are flexible in that they can handle any compartmental epidemiological ODE model. Our computational experiments on two different non-linear ODE models (SEIR and SEPIHR) indicate that accounting for uncertainty in key epidemiological parameters can improve the efficacy of time-critical allocation decisions by 4-8%. This improvement can be attributed to data-driven and optimal (strategic) nature of vaccine allocations, especially in the early stages of the epidemic when the allocation strategy can crucially impact the long-term trajectory of the disease.

math.OC↗

Electric-Gas Infrastructure Planning for Deep Decarbonization of Energy Systems

The transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system requires coordinated planning of infrastructure investments and operations serving multiple end-uses while considering technology and policy-enabled interactions across sectors. Electricity and natural gas (NG), which are vital vectors of today's energy system, are likely to be coupled in different ways in the future, resulting from increasing electrification, adoption of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation in the power sector and policy factors such as cross-sectoral emissions trading. This paper develops a least-cost investment and operations model for joint planning of electricity and NG infrastructures that considers a wide range of available and emerging technology options across the two vectors, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) equipped power generation, low-carbon drop-in fuels (LCDF) as well as long-duration energy storage (LDES). The model incorporates the main operational constraints of both systems and allows each system to operate under different temporal resolutions consistent with their typical scheduling timescales. We apply the modeling framework to evaluate power-NG system outcomes for the U.S. New England region under different technology, decarbonization goals, and demand scenarios. Under a global emissions constraint, ranging between 80-95\% emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels, the least-cost solution disproportionately relies on using the available emissions budget to serve non-power NG demand and results in the power sector using only 15-43\% of the emissions budget.

eess.SY↗

Strategic Monitoring of Networked Systems with Heterogeneous Security Levels

We consider a strategic network monitoring problem involving the operator of a networked system and an attacker. The operator aims to randomize the placement of multiple protected sensors to monitor and protect components that are vulnerable to attacks. We account for the heterogeneity in the components' security levels and formulate a large-scale maximin optimization problem. After analyzing its structure, we propose a three-step approach to approximately solve the problem. First, we solve a generalized covering set problem and run a combinatorial algorithm to compute an approximate solution. Then, we compute approximation bounds by solving a nonlinear set packing problem. To evaluate our solution approach, we implement two classical solution methods based on column generation and multiplicative weights updates, and test them on real-world water distribution and power systems. Our numerical analysis shows that our solution method outperforms the classical methods on large-scale networks, as it efficiently generates solutions that achieve a close to optimal performance and that are simple to implement in practice.

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Learning Spatio-Temporal Aggregations for Large-Scale Capacity Expansion Problems

Effective investment planning decisions are crucial to ensure cyber-physical infrastructures satisfy performance requirements over an extended time horizon. Computing these decisions often requires solving Capacity Expansion Problems (CEPs). In the context of regional-scale energy systems, these problems are prohibitively expensive to solve due to large network sizes, heterogeneous node characteristics, and a large number of operational periods. To maintain tractability, traditional approaches aggregate network nodes and/or select a set of representative time periods. Often, these reductions do not capture supply-demand variations that crucially impact CEP costs and constraints, leading to suboptimal decisions. Here, we propose a novel graph convolutional autoencoder approach for spatio-temporal aggregation of a generic CEP with heterogeneous nodes (CEPHN). Our architecture leverages graph pooling to identify nodes with similar characteristics and minimizes a multi-objective loss function. This loss function is tailored to induce desirable spatial and temporal aggregations with regard to tractability and optimality. In particular, the output of the graph pooling provides a spatial aggregation while clustering the low-dimensional encoded representations yields a temporal aggregation. We apply our approach to generation expansion planning of a coupled 88-node power and natural gas system in New England. The resulting aggregation leads to a simpler CEPHN with 6 nodes and a small set of representative days selected from one year. We evaluate aggregation outcomes over a range of hyperparameters governing the loss function and compare resulting upper bounds on the original problem with those obtained using benchmark methods. We show that our approach provides upper bounds that are 33% (resp. 10%) lower those than obtained from benchmark spatial (resp. temporal) aggregation approaches.

cs.LG↗

Effective Dimension in Bandit Problems under Censorship

In this paper, we study both multi-armed and contextual bandit problems in censored environments. Our goal is to estimate the performance loss due to censorship in the context of classical algorithms designed for uncensored environments. Our main contributions include the introduction of a broad class of censorship models and their analysis in terms of the effective dimension of the problem -- a natural measure of its underlying statistical complexity and main driver of the regret bound. In particular, the effective dimension allows us to maintain the structure of the original problem at first order, while embedding it in a bigger space, and thus naturally leads to results analogous to uncensored settings. Our analysis involves a continuous generalization of the Elliptical Potential Inequality, which we believe is of independent interest. We also discover an interesting property of decision-making under censorship: a transient phase during which initial misspecification of censorship is self-corrected at an extra cost, followed by a stationary phase that reflects the inherent slowdown of learning governed by the effective dimension. Our results are useful for applications of sequential decision-making models where the feedback received depends on strategic uncertainty (e.g., agents' willingness to follow a recommendation) and/or random uncertainty (e.g., loss or delay in arrival of information).

cs.LG↗