arXiv subjects

Saurabh Deshpande

Publications and source records attributed to Saurabh Deshpande.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Semantics or Structure? Auditing Text Sensitivity in Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting

Multimodal time-series forecasting has emerged as a promising paradigm in which natural-language context is expected to improve predictive performance. Recent multimodal foundation models, including Aurora, as well as early- and late-fusion approaches such as MM-TSFlib and TaTS, report substantial gains over unimodal baselines on the Time-MMD benchmark, attributing these improvements to textual information. However, whether these models are actually sensitive to the semantic content of the text remains unverified. We address this question through controlled text perturbations, attribution analyses, and probes of Aurora's text pathway. On Time-MMD, swapping each row's text for any other real text (empty, constant, within-domain shuffled, or cross-domain) moves mean MSE by less than $0.5\%$ on all three architectures. The improvement reported in the literature is recovered when a co-shipped numeric column is removed without touching text. We conclude that, on this benchmark and within this family of frozen-encoder architectures, text content is not the operative signal behind the reported gains. To support future work on text integration in multimodal foundation models for structured data, we release our perturbation protocol and evaluation harness as a reusable diagnostic toolkit.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

TSQueryBench: LLM-as-a-Judge for Time Series Explanations

Natural language explanations of time series data are increasingly produced by foundation models in high stakes domains, making factual correctness critical. Evaluating such explanations differs fundamentally from standard natural language generation: correctness requires verifying numerical claims against structured data rather than similarity to reference text. While LLM as a Judge has emerged as a scalable paradigm for text evaluation, its applicability to numerically grounded time series explanations remains unstudied. We introduce TSQueryBench, a controlled synthetic benchmark of 500 time series instances across 10 query types, each paired with correct, partially correct, and incorrect explanations. We evaluate six large language models across four tasks: explanation generation, relative ranking, independent scoring, and multi anomaly detection. Our central finding is a consistent generation evaluation asymmetry: models that fail to generate numerically correct explanations nonetheless reliably identify or score correct ones. These results show that rubric guided LLM evaluation is substantially more reliable than generation for time series reasoning, supporting LLM judges as scalable evaluators in numerically grounded settings. Code and data: https://github.com/Prxxthxm/TSQueryBench/

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Where Computation Lives Inside TabPFN: Causal Localisation of Attention Head Function

We present the first causal mechanistic analysis of a tabular foundation model, investigating how TabPFN 2.5's feature wise attention heads distribute computation across layers. Using activation patching, ablation, and attention entropy across two synthetic regression datasets, we find clear temporal specialisation: one head's causal necessity dominates that of the others by 2 to 5 times at peak layer, with its dominant layer shifting across tasks of different complexity, while the remaining heads exhibit symmetric late layer profiles. Attention entropy and patching provide convergent evidence for the computationally active layers of the dominant head. We additionally investigate inference time steerability via contrastive activation steering, which fails to transfer across samples. We attribute this result to TabPFN's in context learning mechanism, which encodes task structure through context dependent attention rather than the stable parametric directions that make steering tractable in language models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Mix, Don't Pick: Why Synthetic Corpus Composition Matters for Time Series Foundation Model Pretraining

Choosing the wrong synthetic generator for time-series foundation model pretraining is costly: under identical training budgets, the best and worst generators produce up to a $2\times$ gap in forecasting error, yet the field has no principled way to make this choice. The problem is compounded by the fact that generator rankings are not stable across architectures: across 11 generator families evaluated on Chronos-T5-Mini and Moirai-Small trained from scratch, we find that which generators are useful depends on the model architecture. Rather than solving the generator selection problem, we sidestep it: a simple equal-weight mixture of all generators matches or beats the best individual generator for both architectures, and composing this mixture with real data yields the strongest pretraining corpora overall. Synthetic pretraining is therefore a corpus composition problem, not a generator selection problem, and composition choices should be validated per model family rather than assumed to transfer.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

REGEN: Reference-Guided Synthetic Multivariate Time Series Generation for Forecasting

Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences. Existing generators fail to resolve this mismatch: prior-based approaches (e.g., CauKer, TimePFN) produce domain-agnostic samples, while data-driven methods (e.g., TimeGAN) treat references as black-box supervision, forfeiting explicit control over periodic structure, local variability, and cross-variable dynamics. We propose ReGeN, a reference-guided generative pipeline that treats observed sequences not as examples to imitate, but as structural scaffolds for controllable synthesis. ReGeN decomposes each reference into three interpretable components: a phase-aligned periodic backbone capturing dominant domain morphology; per-variable stochastic residuals modeled with a deep-kernel Gaussian process; and lag-aware cross-variable dependencies injected through a structural causal model with fitted coupling coefficients. Sampling these components at controllable temperature broadens distributional coverage while preserving domain-grounded structure. We show that ReGeN-generated data consistently substitutes for real sibling data with minimal forecasting degradation, and in strongly periodic domains such as traffic, can outperform the real source itself. We further show that a foundation model pretrained on ReGeN corpora outperforms those pretrained on prior-based and data-driven synthetic alternatives. This suggests that in low-data regimes, how reference data is structurally exploited can matter as much as how much data is available.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

GITCO: Gated Inference-Time Context Optimization in TSFMs

Patch-based Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) suffer from context poisoning: structurally anomalous patches capture disproportionate attention and silently degrade zero-shot forecast quality. We propose improving TSFM accuracy at inference time by optimizing the input context rather than modifying model weights. We present GITCO (Gated Inference-Time Context Optimization), a lightweight three-component framework: Gate, Router, and Critic that selectively identifies and suppresses harmful patches without any parameter updates. Evaluated on TimesFM 2.5 across 53 GIFT-Eval datasets under K-fold cross-validation, GITCO achieves an average +1.95% MASE reduction on TimesFM 2.5 while capturing 89.9% of the improvement upper bound. We introduce context sensitivity profiles as a new characterizable property of TSFMs: the mapping from time series meta-features to expected accuracy improvement under inference-time context intervention, shaped jointly by model architecture and the statistical structure of the data.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Confidence is Not Competence

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit a puzzling disconnect between their asserted confidence and actual problem-solving competence. We offer a mechanistic account of this decoupling by analyzing the geometry of internal states across two phases - pre-generative assessment and solution execution. A simple linear probe decodes the internal "solvability belief" of a model, revealing a well-ordered belief axis that generalizes across model families and across math, code, planning, and logic tasks. Yet, the geometries diverge - although belief is linearly decodable, the assessment manifold has high linear effective dimensionality as measured from the principal components, while the subsequent reasoning trace evolves on a much lower-dimensional manifold. This sharp reduction in geometric complexity from thought to action mechanistically explains the confidence-competence gap. Causal interventions that steer representations along the belief axis leave final solutions unchanged, indicating that linear nudges in the complex assessment space do not control the constrained dynamics of execution. We thus uncover a two-system architecture - a geometrically complex assessor feeding a geometrically simple executor. These results challenge the assumption that decodable beliefs are actionable levers, instead arguing for interventions that target the procedural dynamics of execution rather than the high-level geometry of assessment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Policy Optimization Prefers The Path of Least Resistance

Policy optimization (PO) algorithms are used to refine Large Language Models for complex, multi-step reasoning. Current state-of-the-art pipelines enforce a strict think-then-answer format to elicit chain-of-thought (CoT); however, the behavior of PO when these rigid constraints are relaxed into an open-ended CoT structure remains an under-studied question. We investigate this gap with an extensive suite of controlled experiments and identify a consistent principle: \textit{policy optimization consistently follows the path of least resistance}. When afforded the flexibility to interleave reasoning and response, policy optimization consistently learns to discard explicit reasoning, causing the policy to degenerate to a direct \texttt{ }-only format. This outcome holds true across various models and algorithms. We find that this collapse in format is persistent even when the complex \texttt{ } format is assigned up to 4x larger reward weights. We formalize this principle through a series of controlled reward decomposition experiments, demonstrating a clear hierarchy: PO systematically optimizes for the simplest reward component first, a preference that holds even when faced with mutually exclusive choices or strong incentives for more complex behaviors. Finally, we show that successful convergence on the high-reward shortcut is not a low-effort drift but is driven by the optimization process that requires the KL-regularized policy to have sufficient freedom to make a significant shift from its initial prior. Our findings reveal that granting policies the freedom to diverge is a double-edged sword: while necessary for discovering high-reward shortcuts, it also creates a powerful incentive to game the simplest aspects of the reward function, posing a critical challenge for reward hacking under alignment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

time2time: Causal Intervention in Hidden States to Simulate Rare Events in Time Series Foundation Models

While transformer-based foundation models excel at forecasting routine patterns, two questions remain: do they internalize semantic concepts such as market regimes, or merely fit curves? And can their internal representations be leveraged to simulate rare, high-stakes events such as market crashes? To investigate this, we introduce activation transplantation, a causal intervention that manipulates hidden states by imposing the statistical moments of one event (e.g., a historical crash) onto another (e.g., a calm period) during the forward pass. This procedure deterministically steers forecasts: injecting crash semantics induces downturn predictions, while injecting calm semantics suppresses crashes and restores stability. Beyond binary control, we find that models encode a graded notion of event severity, with the latent vector norm directly correlating with the magnitude of systemic shocks. Validated across two architecturally distinct TSFMs, Toto (decoder only) and Chronos (encoder-decoder), our results demonstrate that steerable, semantically grounded representations are a robust property of large time series transformers. Our findings provide evidence for a latent concept space that governs model predictions, shifting interpretability from post-hoc attribution to direct causal intervention, and enabling semantic "what-if" analysis for strategic stress-testing.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

REVEAL: Multi-turn Evaluation of Image-Input Harms for Vision LLM

Vision Large Language Models (VLLMs) represent a significant advancement in artificial intelligence by integrating image-processing capabilities with textual understanding, thereby enhancing user interactions and expanding application domains. However, their increased complexity introduces novel safety and ethical challenges, particularly in multi-modal and multi-turn conversations. Traditional safety evaluation frameworks, designed for text-based, single-turn interactions, are inadequate for addressing these complexities. To bridge this gap, we introduce the REVEAL (Responsible Evaluation of Vision-Enabled AI LLMs) Framework, a scalable and automated pipeline for evaluating image-input harms in VLLMs. REVEAL includes automated image mining, synthetic adversarial data generation, multi-turn conversational expansion using crescendo attack strategies, and comprehensive harm assessment through evaluators like GPT-4o. We extensively evaluated five state-of-the-art VLLMs, GPT-4o, Llama-3.2, Qwen2-VL, Phi3.5V, and Pixtral, across three important harm categories: sexual harm, violence, and misinformation. Our findings reveal that multi-turn interactions result in significantly higher defect rates compared to single-turn evaluations, highlighting deeper vulnerabilities in VLLMs. Notably, GPT-4o demonstrated the most balanced performance as measured by our Safety-Usability Index (SUI) followed closely by Pixtral. Additionally, misinformation emerged as a critical area requiring enhanced contextual defenses. Llama-3.2 exhibited the highest MT defect rate ($16.55 \%$) while Qwen2-VL showed the highest MT refusal rate ($19.1 \%$).

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Gaussian process regression + deep neural network autoencoder for probabilistic surrogate modeling in nonlinear mechanics of solids

Many real-world applications demand accurate and fast predictions, as well as reliable uncertainty estimates. However, quantifying uncertainty on high-dimensional predictions is still a severely under-investigated problem, especially when input-output relationships are non-linear. To handle this problem, the present work introduces an innovative approach that combines autoencoder deep neural networks with the probabilistic regression capabilities of Gaussian processes. The autoencoder provides a low-dimensional representation of the solution space, while the Gaussian process is a Bayesian method that provides a probabilistic mapping between the low-dimensional inputs and outputs. We validate the proposed framework for its application to surrogate modeling of non-linear finite element simulations. Our findings highlight that the proposed framework is computationally efficient as well as accurate in predicting non-linear deformations of solid bodies subjected to external forces, all the while providing insightful uncertainty assessments.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2024

Graph Representation Learning Strategies for Omics Data: A Case Study on Parkinson's Disease

Omics data analysis is crucial for studying complex diseases, but its high dimensionality and heterogeneity challenge classical statistical and machine learning methods. Graph neural networks have emerged as promising alternatives, yet the optimal strategies for their design and optimization in real-world biomedical challenges remain unclear. This study evaluates various graph representation learning models for case-control classification using high-throughput biological data from Parkinson's disease and control samples. We compare topologies derived from sample similarity networks and molecular interaction networks, including protein-protein and metabolite-metabolite interactions (PPI, MMI). Graph Convolutional Network (GCNs), Chebyshev spectral graph convolution (ChebyNet), and Graph Attention Network (GAT), are evaluated alongside advanced architectures like graph transformers, the graph U-net, and simpler models like multilayer perceptron (MLP). These models are systematically applied to transcriptomics and metabolomics data independently. Our comparative analysis highlights the benefits and limitations of various architectures in extracting patterns from omics data, paving the way for more accurate and interpretable models in biomedical research.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

MAgNET: A Graph U-Net Architecture for Mesh-Based Simulations

In many cutting-edge applications, high-fidelity computational models prove to be too slow for practical use and are therefore replaced by much faster surrogate models. Recently, deep learning techniques have increasingly been utilized to accelerate such predictions. To enable learning on large-dimensional and complex data, specific neural network architectures have been developed, including convolutional and graph neural networks. In this work, we present a novel encoder-decoder geometric deep learning framework called MAgNET, which extends the well-known convolutional neural networks to accommodate arbitrary graph-structured data. MAgNET consists of innovative Multichannel Aggregation (MAg) layers and graph pooling/unpooling layers, forming a graph U-Net architecture that is analogous to convolutional U-Nets. We demonstrate the predictive capabilities of MAgNET in surrogate modeling for non-linear finite element simulations in the mechanics of solids.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Convolution, aggregation and attention based deep neural networks for accelerating simulations in mechanics

Deep learning surrogate models are being increasingly used in accelerating scientific simulations as a replacement for costly conventional numerical techniques. However, their use remains a significant challenge when dealing with real-world complex examples. In this work, we demonstrate three types of neural network architectures for efficient learning of highly non-linear deformations of solid bodies. The first two architectures are based on the recently proposed CNN U-NET and MAgNET (graph U-NET) frameworks which have shown promising performance for learning on mesh-based data. The third architecture is Perceiver IO, a very recent architecture that belongs to the family of attention-based neural networks--a class that has revolutionised diverse engineering fields and is still unexplored in computational mechanics. We study and compare the performance of all three networks on two benchmark examples, and show their capabilities to accurately predict the non-linear mechanical responses of soft bodies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Probabilistic Deep Learning for Real-Time Large Deformation Simulations

For many novel applications, such as patient-specific computer-aided surgery, conventional solution techniques of the underlying nonlinear problems are usually computationally too expensive and are lacking information about how certain can we be about their predictions. In the present work, we propose a highly efficient deep-learning surrogate framework that is able to accurately predict the response of bodies undergoing large deformations in real-time. The surrogate model has a convolutional neural network architecture, called U-Net, which is trained with force-displacement data obtained with the finite element method. We propose deterministic and probabilistic versions of the framework. The probabilistic framework utilizes the Variational Bayes Inference approach and is able to capture all the uncertainties present in the data as well as in the deep-learning model. Based on several benchmark examples, we show the predictive capabilities of the framework and discuss its possible limitations

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

AutoKnow: Self-Driving Knowledge Collection for Products of Thousands of Types

Can one build a knowledge graph (KG) for all products in the world? Knowledge graphs have firmly established themselves as valuable sources of information for search and question answering, and it is natural to wonder if a KG can contain information about products offered at online retail sites. There have been several successful examples of generic KGs, but organizing information about products poses many additional challenges, including sparsity and noise of structured data for products, complexity of the domain with millions of product types and thousands of attributes, heterogeneity across large number of categories, as well as large and constantly growing number of products. We describe AutoKnow, our automatic (self-driving) system that addresses these challenges. The system includes a suite of novel techniques for taxonomy construction, product property identification, knowledge extraction, anomaly detection, and synonym discovery. AutoKnow is (a) automatic, requiring little human intervention, (b) multi-scalable, scalable in multiple dimensions (many domains, many products, and many attributes), and (c) integrative, exploiting rich customer behavior logs. AutoKnow has been operational in collecting product knowledge for over 11K product types.

cs.AI↗