arXiv subjects

Saurabh Mathur

Publications and source records attributed to Saurabh Mathur.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Causal Modeling of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes via Adaptive LLM Proposals

Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (APOs) such as preterm birth and gestational diabetes can have long-term consequences for both the mother and child, yet an understanding of their causes remains elusive. Causal discovery in this domain is especially challenging due to a paucity of data and incomplete domain knowledge. As a result, pure data-driven methods fail, and Large Language Model (LLM) outputs remain inconsistent or contradictory. We introduce a neurosymbolic framework for generating plausible causal hypotheses that iteratively combines the broad prior knowledge of LLMs with empirical scoring on data. Our method treats the LLM as an adaptive proposal distribution, generating hypotheses that are scored against empirical data; the resulting high-scoring graphs are then used to update the LLM's context, steering subsequent generations toward more promising regions of the hypothesis space. We evaluate our approach on a real-world clinical dataset for modeling APOs and their risk factors, comparing our results against an expert-constructed causal graph. Our method recovers all expert-validated edges and identifies additional plausible causal relations not previously listed by experts, potentially providing new insights for targeted interventions.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Neurosymbolic Approach for Constructing Planning Domain Models from Clinical Narratives

Surgical procedures such as laparoscopic appendectomy are complex, high-stakes processes, yet formalizing their workflows for decision support remains a significant challenge. Inducing probabilistic planning domain models in this setting is particularly difficult due to the lack of structured event data and the prevalence of implicit actions in clinical narratives, which neither empirical symbolic methods nor Large Language Models (LLMs) can adequately address on their own. We introduce NSPIN, a neurosymbolic framework for inducing probabilistic planning domain models from unstructured clinical narratives. Our method extracts and imputes structured event sequences from raw text using a pretrained LLM, then induces a PPDDL model and refines its preconditions with LLM-proposed revisions, guided by empirical validation. We evaluate the approach on 2,660 laparoscopic appendectomy notes written by 9 surgeons. NSPIN yields models that generalize to unseen notes, and expert clinical review indicates its induced knowledge is largely consistent with surgical practice.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Tydra: An Efficient Hybrid Model for Tabular Data

Transformer-based tabular foundation models such as TabPFN achieve strong predictive performance but incur quadratic computational cost with context length. On the other hand, subquadratic SSM-based alternatives such as Hydra trade away accuracy for efficiency. To balance both, we introduce Tydra, a hybrid Transformer-State Space Model (SSM) architecture for tabular in-context learning that interleaves attention and SSM layers. Across 30 OpenML datasets, Tydra reduces inference time by 30% relative to TabPFN while retaining much of its predictive performance. Tydra also outperforms an approximately ten-times-larger Hydra model while providing faster inference. The results indicate that hybrid architectures are a promising direction for tabular foundation models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Dynamic Structural Causal Modeling for Sleep

The causal dynamics of sleep-disordered breathing are complex and vary across patient populations, hindering the development of targeted interventions. We learn dynamic causal graphs of sleep-disordered breathing from Home Sleep Apnea Test (HSAT) recordings, revealing systematic differences in causal structure across sex and age subcohorts. We do so using the PCMCI+ algorithm on windowed fractional variables derived from 105 HSAT recordings, exploiting domain knowledge via edge blacklisting and employing bootstrap aggregation to address small subcohort sizes. The learned graphs show that temporal self-dependencies and the apnea-desaturation relationship persist across all cohorts, while other relationships vary substantially.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

A Neurosymbolic Approach for Explainable Early Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease

Identifying reliable Alzheimer's disease (AD) markers typically requires manual, labor-intensive transcription and expert analysis, limiting its scale. We introduce an automated pipeline that extracts qualitative knowledge about potential AD progression indicators directly from audio recordings of verbal fluency tests. Our method uses pretrained foundation models to process raw audio and extract clinically relevant variables to construct a Bayesian Network (BN); this BN is used to reason about the AD progression markers and infer their qualitative relationships. Our system successfully recovers known clinical knowledge and identifies novel relationships between linguistic markers.

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arXiv2026

Imitation learning for clinical decision support in pediatric ECMO

Pediatric critical care is a dynamic, high-stakes process involving constant monitoring and adjustments in life-saving treatments. Modeling these interventions is crucial for effective decision support. To address the challenges of high complexity and data scarcity in pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO), we frame clinical decision-making as learning to act from trajectories, i.e., imitation learning that learns action models from observational data, with a key feature that actions are not directly observed. We consider TabPFN, a recent transformer-based approach for tabular data, and traditional baselines including XGBoost and Multi-Layer Perceptrons(MLPs) on real-world pediatric ECMO data to learn the action models. We find that the TabPFN-based approach consistently outperforms these classical baselines, supporting its use as a strong clinician-behavior baseline for pediatric ECMO decision support.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Context-specific Credibility-aware Multimodal Fusion with Conditional Probabilistic Circuits

Multimodal fusion requires integrating information from multiple sources that may conflict depending on context. Existing fusion approaches typically rely on static assumptions about source reliability, limiting their ability to resolve conflicts when a modality becomes unreliable due to situational factors such as sensor degradation or class-specific corruption. We introduce C$^2$MF, a context-specfic credibility-aware multimodal fusion framework that models per-instance source reliability using a Conditional Probabilistic Circuit (CPC). We formalize instance-level reliability through Context-Specific Information Credibility (CSIC), a KL-divergence-based measure computed exactly from the CPC. CSIC generalizes conventional static credibility estimates as a special case, enabling principled and adaptive reliability assessment. To evaluate robustness under cross-modal conflicts, we propose the Conflict benchmark, in which class-specific corruptions deliberately induce discrepancies between different modalities. Experimental results show that C$^2$MF improves predictive accuracy by up to 29% over static-reliability baselines in high-noise settings, while preserving the interpretability advantages of probabilistic circuit-based fusion.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Recursive Inference Machines for Neural Reasoning

Neural reasoners such as Tiny Recursive Models (TRMs) solve complex problems by combining neural backbones with specialized inference schemes. Such inference schemes have been a central component of stochastic reasoning systems, where inference rules are applied to a stochastic model to derive answers to complex queries. In this work, we bridge these two paradigms by introducing Recursive Inference Machines (RIMs), a neural reasoning framework that explicitly incorporates recursive inference mechanisms inspired by classical inference engines. We show that TRMs can be expressed as an instance of RIMs, allowing us to extend them through a reweighting component, yielding better performance on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including ARC-AGI-1, ARC-AGI-2, and Sudoku Extreme. Furthermore, we show that RIMs can be used to improve reasoning on other tasks, such as the classification of tabular data, outperforming TabPFNs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Human-in-the-loop or AI-in-the-loop? Automate or Collaborate?

Human-in-the-loop (HIL) systems have emerged as a promising approach for combining the strengths of data-driven machine learning models with the contextual understanding of human experts. However, a deeper look into several of these systems reveals that calling them HIL would be a misnomer, as they are quite the opposite, namely AI-in-the-loop ($AI^2L$) systems, where the human is in control of the system, while the AI is there to support the human. We argue that existing evaluation methods often overemphasize the machine (learning) component's performance, neglecting the human expert's critical role. Consequently, we propose an $AI^2L$ perspective, which recognizes that the human expert is an active participant in the system, significantly influencing its overall performance. By adopting an $AI^2L$ approach, we can develop more comprehensive systems that faithfully model the intricate interplay between the human and machine components, leading to more effective and robust AI systems.

cs.HC↗

arXiv2024

A Unified Framework for Human-Allied Learning of Probabilistic Circuits

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) have emerged as an efficient framework for representing and learning complex probability distributions. Nevertheless, the existing body of research on PCs predominantly concentrates on data-driven parameter learning, often neglecting the potential of knowledge-intensive learning, a particular issue in data-scarce/knowledge-rich domains such as healthcare. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel unified framework that can systematically integrate diverse domain knowledge into the parameter learning process of PCs. Experiments on several benchmarks as well as real world datasets show that our proposed framework can both effectively and efficiently leverage domain knowledge to achieve superior performance compared to purely data-driven learning approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Credibility-Aware Multi-Modal Fusion Using Probabilistic Circuits

We consider the problem of late multi-modal fusion for discriminative learning. Motivated by noisy, multi-source domains that require understanding the reliability of each data source, we explore the notion of credibility in the context of multi-modal fusion. We propose a combination function that uses probabilistic circuits (PCs) to combine predictive distributions over individual modalities. We also define a probabilistic measure to evaluate the credibility of each modality via inference queries over the PC. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that our fusion method can reliably infer credibility while maintaining competitive performance with the state-of-the-art.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Explaining Deep Tractable Probabilistic Models: The sum-product network case

We consider the problem of explaining a class of tractable deep probabilistic models, the Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and present an algorithm ExSPN to generate explanations. To this effect, we define the notion of a context-specific independence tree(CSI-tree) and present an iterative algorithm that converts an SPN to a CSI-tree. The resulting CSI-tree is both interpretable and explainable to the domain expert. We achieve this by extracting the conditional independencies encoded by the SPN and approximating the local context specified by the structure of the SPN. Our extensive empirical evaluations on synthetic, standard, and real-world clinical data sets demonstrate that the CSI-tree exhibits superior explainability.

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