arXiv subjects

Scott Chapman

Publications and source records attributed to Scott Chapman.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

How do stars gain their mass? A JCMT/SCUBA-2 Transient Survey of Protostars in Nearby Star Forming Regions

Most protostars have luminosities that are fainter than expected from steady accretion over the protostellar lifetime. The solution to this problem may lie in episodic mass accretion -- prolonged periods of very low accretion punctuated by short bursts of rapid accretion. However, the timescale and amplitude for variability at the protostellar phase is almost entirely unconstrained. In "A JCMT/SCUBA-2 Transient Survey of Protostars in Nearby Star Forming Regions", we are monitoring monthly with SCUBA-2 the sub-mm emission in eight fields within nearby (<500 pc) star forming regions to measure the accretion variability of protostars. The total survey area of ~1.6 sq.deg. includes ~105 peaks with peaks brighter than 0.5 Jy/beam (43 associated with embedded protostars or disks) and 237 peaks of 0.125-0.5 Jy/beam (50 with embedded protostars or disks). Each field has enough bright peaks for flux calibration relative to other peaks in the same field, which improves upon the nominal flux calibration uncertainties of sub-mm observations to reach a precision of ~2-3% rms, and also provides quantified confidence in any measured variability. The timescales and amplitudes of any sub-mm variation will then be converted into variations in accretion rate and subsequently used to infer the physical causes of the variability. This survey is the first dedicated survey for sub-mm variability and complements other transient surveys at optical and near-IR wavelengths, which are not sensitive to accretion variability of deeply embedded protostars.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

Feeling the pull, a study of natural Galactic accelerometers. II: kinematics and mass of the delicate stellar stream of the Palomar 5 globular cluster

We present two spectroscopic surveys of the tidal stellar stream of the Palomar 5 globular cluster, undertaken with the VLT/FLAMES and AAT/AAOmega instruments. We use these data in conjunction with photometric data presented in the previous contribution in this series to classify the survey stars in terms of their probability of belonging to the Palomar 5 stellar stream. We find that high-probability candidates are only found in a very narrow spatial interval surrounding the locus of the stream on the sky. PanSTARRS RRLyrae stars in this region of sky are also distributed in a similar manner. The absence of significant "fanning" of this stellar stream confirms that Palomar 5 does not follow a chaotic orbit. Previous studies have found that Palomar 5 is largely devoid of low-mass stars, and we show that this is true also of the stellar populations along the trailing arm out to $6°$. Within this region, which contains 73\% of the detected stars, the population is statistically identical to the core, implying that the ejection of the low-mass stars occurred before the formation of the stream. We also present an updated structural model fit to the bound remnant, which yields a total mass of $4297\pm98 {\rm\,M_\odot}$ and a tidal radius $0.145\pm0.009$ kpc. We estimate the mass of the observed system including the stream to be $12200\pm400 {\rm\,M_\odot}$, and the initial mass to have been $\sim47000\pm1500 {\rm\,M_\odot}$. These observational constraints will be employed in our next study to model the dynamics of the system in detail.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

The Canada-France Imaging Survey: First results from the u-band component

The Canada-France Imaging Survey (CFIS) will map the northern high Galactic latitude sky in the $u$-band ("CFIS-u", 10,000$\, {\rm deg^2}$) and in the $r$-band ("CFIS-r", 5,000$\, {\rm deg^2}$), enabling a host of stand-alone science investigations, and providing some of the ground-based data necessary for photometric redshift determination for the Euclid mission. In this first contribution we present the $u$-band component of the survey, describe the observational strategy, and discuss some first highlight results, based on approximately one third of the final area. We show that the Galactic anticenter structure is distributed continuously along the line of sight, out to beyond 20 kpc, and possesses a metallicity distribution that is essentially identical to that of the outer disk sampled by APOGEE. This suggests that it is probably a buckled disk of old metal-rich stars, rather than a stream or a flare. We also discuss the future potential for CFIS-u in discovering star-forming dwarf galaxies around the Local Group, the characterization of the white dwarf and blue straggler population of the Milky Way, as well as its sensitivity to low-surface brightness structures in external galaxies.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

Chemical Mapping of the Milky Way With The Canada-France Imaging Survey: A Non-parametric Metallicity-Distance Decomposition of the Galaxy

We present the chemical distribution of the Milky Way, based on 2,900$\, {\rm deg^2}$ of $u$-band photometry taken as part of the Canada-France Imaging Survey. When complete, this survey will cover 10,000$\, {\rm deg^2}$ of the Northern sky. By combing the CFHT $u$-band photometry together with SDSS and Pan-STARRS $g,r,$ and $i$, we demonstrate that we are able to measure reliably the metallicities of individual stars to $\sim 0.2$ dex, and hence additionally obtain good photometric distance estimates. This survey thus permits the measurement of metallicities and distances of the dominant main-sequence population out to approximately 30 kpc, and provides much higher number of stars at large extraplanar distances than have been available from previous surveys. We develop a non-parametric distance-metallicity decomposition algorithm and apply it to the sky at $30°< |b| < 70°$ and to the North Galactic Cap. We find that the metallicity-distance distribution is well-represented by three populations whose metallicity distributions do not vary significantly with vertical height above the disk. As traced in main-sequence stars, the stellar halo component shows a vertical density profile that is close to exponential, with a scale height of around 3 kpc. This may indicate that the inner halo was formed partly from disk stars ejected in an ancient minor merger.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

The JCMT Transient Survey: Data Reduction and Calibration Methods

Though there has been a significant amount of work investigating the early stages of low-mass star formation in recent years, the evolution of the mass assembly rate onto the central protostar remains largely unconstrained. Examining in depth the variation in this rate is critical to understanding the physics of star formation. Instabilities in the outer and inner circumstellar disk can lead to episodic outbursts. Observing these brightness variations at infrared or submillimetre wavelengths sets constraints on the current accretion models. The JCMT Transient Survey is a three-year project dedicated to studying the continuum variability of deeply embedded protostars in eight nearby star-forming regions at a one month cadence. We use the SCUBA-2 instrument to simultaneously observe these regions at wavelengths of 450 $μ$m and 850 $μ$m. In this paper, we present the data reduction techniques, image alignment procedures, and relative flux calibration methods for 850 $μ$m data. We compare the properties and locations of bright, compact emission sources fitted with Gaussians over time. Doing so, we achieve a spatial alignment of better than 1" between the repeated observations and an uncertainty of 2-3\% in the relative peak brightness of significant, localised emission. This combination of imaging performance is unprecedented in ground-based, single dish submillimetre observations. Finally, we identify a few sources that show possible and confirmed brightness variations. These sources will be closely monitored and presented in further detail in additional studies throughout the duration of the survey.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2017

Performance of a continuously rotating half-wave plate on the POLARBEAR telescope

A continuously rotating half-wave plate (CRHWP) is a promising tool to improve the sensitivity to large angular scales in cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization measurements. With a CRHWP, single detectors can measure three of the Stokes parameters, $I$, $Q$ and $U$, thereby avoiding the set of systematic errors that can be introduced by mismatches in the properties of orthogonal detector pairs. We focus on the implementation of CRHWPs in large aperture telescopes (i.e. the primary mirror is larger than the current maximum half-wave plate diameter of $\sim$0.5 m), where the CRHWP can be placed between the primary mirror and focal plane. In this configuration, one needs to address the intensity to polarization ($I{\rightarrow}P$) leakage of the optics, which becomes a source of 1/f noise and also causes differential gain systematics that arise from CMB temperature fluctuations. In this paper, we present the performance of a CRHWP installed in the POLARBEAR experiment, which employs a Gregorian telescope with a 2.5 m primary illumination pattern. The CRHWP is placed near the prime focus between the primary and secondary mirrors. We find that the $I{\rightarrow}P$ leakage is larger than the expectation from the physical properties of our primary mirror, resulting in a 1/f knee of 100 mHz. The excess leakage could be due to imperfections in the detector system, i.e. detector non-linearity in the responsivity and time-constant. We demonstrate, however, that by subtracting the leakage correlated with the intensity signal, the 1/f noise knee frequency is reduced to 32 mHz ($\ell \sim$39 for our scan strategy), which is very promising to probe the primordial B-mode signal. We also discuss methods for further noise subtraction in future projects where the precise temperature control of instrumental components and the leakage reduction will play a key role.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2017

An ALMA survey of submillimetre galaxies in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South: Spectroscopic redshifts

We present spectroscopic redshifts of S(870)>2mJy submillimetre galaxies (SMGs) which have been identified from the ALMA follow-up observations of 870um detected sources in the Extended Chandra Deep Field South (the ALMA-LESS survey). We derive spectroscopic redshifts for 52 SMGs, with a median of z=2.4+/-0.1. However, the distribution features a high redshift tail, with ~25% of the SMGs at z>3. Spectral diagnostics suggest that the SMGs are young starbursts, and the velocity offsets between the nebular emission and UV ISM absorption lines suggest that many are driving winds, with velocity offsets up to 2000km/s. Using the spectroscopic redshifts and the extensive UV-to-radio photometry in this field, we produce optimised spectral energy distributions (SEDs) using Magphys, and use the SEDs to infer a median stellar mass of M*=(6+/-1)x10^{10}Msol for our SMGs with spectroscopic redshifts. By combining these stellar masses with the star-formation rates (measured from the far-infrared SEDs), we show that SMGs (on average) lie a factor ~5 above the main-sequence at z~2. We provide this library of 52 template fits with robust and well-sampled SEDs available as a resource for future studies of SMGs, and also release the spectroscopic catalog of ~2000 (mostly infrared-selected) galaxies targeted as part of the spectroscopic campaign.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2017

Perturbative Yang-Mills Ground State in the Temporal Gauge

Second order corrections to the perturbative ground state wave functional and vacuum energy of a Yang-Mills theory are calculated in the temporal gauge. Using dimensional regularization, the concepts of renormalization and a running coupling constant are motivated in a spatially gauge invariant way, before the introduction of a scalar product. After definition of a scalar product, it is shown that the renormalization constants of this approach are just those of the Axial gauge.

hep-th↗

arXiv2016

Making maps of Cosmic Microwave Background polarization for B-mode studies: the POLARBEAR example

Analysis of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets typically requires some filtering of the raw time-ordered data. Filtering is frequently used to minimize the impact of low frequency noise, atmospheric contributions and/or scan synchronous signals on the resulting maps. In this work we explicitly construct a general filtering operator, which can unambiguously remove any set of unwanted modes in the data, and then amend the map-making procedure in order to incorporate and correct for it. We show that such an approach is mathematically equivalent to the solution of a problem in which the sky signal and unwanted modes are estimated simultaneously and the latter are marginalized over. We investigate the conditions under which this amended map-making procedure can render an unbiased estimate of the sky signal in realistic circumstances. We then study the effects of time-domain filtering on the noise correlation structure in the map domain, as well as impact it may have on the performance of the popular pseudo-spectrum estimators. We conclude that although maps produced by the proposed estimators arguably provide the most faithful representation of the sky possible given the data, they may not straightforwardly lead to the best constraints on the power spectra of the underlying sky signal and special care may need to be taken to ensure this is the case. By contrast, simplified map-makers which do not explicitly correct for time-domain filtering, but leave it to subsequent steps in the data analysis, may perform equally well and be easier and faster to implement. We focus on polarization-sensitive measurements targeting the B-mode component of the CMB signal and apply the proposed methods to realistic simulations based on characteristics of an actual CMB polarization experiment, POLARBEAR.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2016

ALMA spectroscopic survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field: CO luminosity functions and the evolution of the cosmic density of molecular gas

In this paper we use ASPECS, the ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the {\em Hubble} Ultra Deep Field (UDF) in band 3 and band 6, to place blind constraints on the CO luminosity function and the evolution of the cosmic molecular gas density as a function of redshift up to $z\sim 4.5$. This study is based on galaxies that have been solely selected through their CO emission and not through any other property. In all of the redshift bins the ASPECS measurements reach the predicted `knee' of the CO luminosity function (around $5\times10^{9}$ K km/s pc$^2$). We find clear evidence of an evolution in the CO luminosity function with respect to $z\sim 0$, with more CO luminous galaxies present at $z\sim 2$. The observed galaxies at $z\sim 2$ also appear more gas-rich than predicted by recent semi-analytical models. The comoving cosmic molecular gas density within galaxies as a function of redshift shows a factor 3-10 drop from $z \sim 2$ to $z \sim 0$ (with significant error bars), and possibly a decline at $z>3$. This trend is similar to the observed evolution of the cosmic star formation rate density. The latter therefore appears to be at least partly driven by the increased availability of molecular gas reservoirs at the peak of cosmic star formation ($z\sim2$).

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field: Molecular gas reservoirs in high-redshift galaxies

We study the molecular gas properties of high-$z$ galaxies observed in the ALMA Spectroscopic Survey (ASPECS) that targets a $\sim1$ arcmin$^2$ region in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (UDF), a blind survey of CO emission (tracing molecular gas) in the 3mm and 1mm bands. Of a total of 1302 galaxies in the field, 56 have spectroscopic redshifts and correspondingly well-defined physical properties. Among these, 11 have infrared luminosities $L_{\rm{}IR}>10^{11}$ L$_\odot$, i.e. a detection in CO emission was expected. Out these, 7 are detected at various significance in CO, and 4 are undetected in CO emission. In the CO-detected sources, we find CO excitation conditions that are lower than typically found in starburst/SMG/QSO environments. We use the CO luminosities (including limits for non-detections) to derive molecular gas masses. We discuss our findings in context of previous molecular gas observations at high redshift (star-formation law, gas depletion times, gas fractions): The CO-detected galaxies in the UDF tend to reside on the low-$L_{\rm{}IR}$ envelope of the scatter in the $L_{\rm{}IR}-L'_{\rm{}CO}$ relation, but exceptions exist. For the CO-detected sources, we find an average depletion time of $\sim$ 1 Gyr, with significant scatter. The average molecular-to-stellar mass ratio ($M_{\rm{}H2}$/$M_*$) is consistent with earlier measurements of main sequence galaxies at these redshifts, and again shows large variations among sources. In some cases, we also measure dust continuum emission. On average, the dust-based estimates of the molecular gas are a factor $\sim$2-5$\times$ smaller than those based on CO. Accounting for detections as well as non-detections, we find large diversity in the molecular gas properties of the high-redshift galaxies covered by ASPECS.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field: The Infrared Excess of UV-selected z=2-10 galaxies as a function of UV-continuum Slope and Stellar Mass

We make use of deep 1.2mm-continuum observations (12.7microJy/beam RMS) of a 1 arcmin^2 region in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field to probe dust-enshrouded star formation from 330 Lyman-break galaxies spanning the redshift range z=2-10 (to ~2-3 Msol/yr at 1sigma over the entire range). Given the depth and area of ASPECS, we would expect to tentatively detect 35 galaxies extrapolating the Meurer z~0 IRX-beta relation to z>~2 (assuming T_d~35 K). However, only 6 tentative detections are found at z>~2 in ASPECS, with just three at >3sigma. Subdividing z=2-10 galaxies according to stellar mass, UV luminosity, and UV-continuum slope and stacking the results, we only find a significant detection in the most massive (>10^9.75 Msol) subsample, with an infrared excess (IRX=L_{IR}/L_{UV}) consistent with previous z~2 results. However, the infrared excess we measure from our large selection of sub-L* (<10^9.75 Msol) galaxies is 0.11(-0.42)(+0.32) and 0.14(-0.14)(+0.15) at z=2-3 and z=4-10, respectively, lying below even an SMC IRX-beta relation (95% confidence). These results demonstrate the relevance of stellar mass for predicting the IR luminosity of z>~2 galaxies. We furthermore find that the evolution of the IRX-stellar mass relationship depends on the evolution of the dust temperature. If the dust temperature increases monotonically with redshift (as (1+z)^0.32) such that T_d~44-50 K at z>=4, current results are suggestive of little evolution in this relationship to z~6. We use these results to revisit recent estimates of the z>~3 SFR density. One less obvious implication is in interpreting the high Halpha EWs seen in z~5 galaxies: our results imply that star-forming galaxies produce Lyman-continuum photons at twice the efficiency (per unit UV luminosity) as implied in conventional models. Star-forming galaxies can then reionize the Universe, even if the escape fraction is <10%.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

ALMA Spectroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field: Survey Description

We present the rationale for and the observational description of ASPECS: The ALMA SPECtroscopic Survey in the Hubble Ultra-Deep Field (UDF), the cosmological deep field that has the deepest multi-wavelength data available. Our overarching goal is to obtain an unbiased census of molecular gas and dust continuum emission in high-redshift (z$>$0.5) galaxies. The $\sim$1$'$ region covered within the UDF was chosen to overlap with the deepest available imaging from HST. Our ALMA observations consist of full frequency scans in band 3 (84-115 GHz) and band 6 (212-272 GHz) at approximately uniform line sensitivity ($L'_{\rm CO}\sim$2$\times$10$^{9}$ K km/s pc$^2$), and continuum noise levels of 3.8 $μ$Jy beam$^{-1}$ and 12.7 $μ$Jy beam$^{-1}$, respectively. The molecular surveys cover the different rotational transitions of the CO molecule, leading to essentially full redshift coverage. The [CII] emission line is also covered at redshifts $6.0<z<8.0$. We present a customized algorithm to identify line candidates in the molecular line scans, and quantify our ability to recover artificial sources from our data. Based on whether multiple CO lines are detected, and whether optical spectroscopic redshifts as well as optical counterparts exist, we constrain the most likely line identification. We report 10 (11) CO line candidates in the 3mm (1mm) band, and our statistical analysis shows that $<$4 of these (in each band) are likely spurious. Less than 1/3 of the total CO flux in the low-J CO line candidates are from sources that are not associated with an optical/NIR counterpart. We also present continuum maps of both the band 3 and band 6 observations. The data presented here form the basis of a number of dedicated studies that are presented in subsequent papers.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

ALMA Imaging and Gravitational Lens Models of South Pole Telescope-Selected Dusty, Star-Forming Galaxies at High Redshifts

The South Pole Telescope has discovered one hundred gravitationally lensed, high-redshift, dusty, star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). We present 0.5" resolution 870um Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array imaging of a sample of 47 DSFGs spanning z=1.9-5.7, and construct gravitational lens models of these sources. Our visibility-based lens modeling incorporates several sources of residual interferometric calibration uncertainty, allowing us to properly account for noise in the observations. At least 70% of the sources are strongly lensed by foreground galaxies (mu_870um > 2), with a median magnification mu_870um = 6.3, extending to mu_870um > 30. We compare the intrinsic size distribution of the strongly lensed sources to a similar number of unlensed DSFGs and find no significant differences in spite of a bias between the magnification and intrinsic source size. This may indicate that the true size distribution of DSFGs is relatively narrow. We use the source sizes to constrain the wavelength at which the dust optical depth is unity and find this wavelength to be correlated with the dust temperature. This correlation leads to discrepancies in dust mass estimates of a factor of 2 compared to estimates using a single value for this wavelength. We investigate the relationship between the [CII] line and the far-infrared luminosity and find that the same correlation between the [CII]L_FIR ratio and Sigma_FIR found for low-redshift star-forming galaxies applies to high-redshift galaxies and extends at least two orders of magnitude higher in Sigma_FIR. This lends further credence to the claim that the compactness of the IR-emitting region is the controlling parameter in establishing the "[CII] deficit."

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

A new VLA/e-MERLIN limit on central images in the gravitational lens system CLASS B1030+074

We present new VLA 22-GHz and e-MERLIN 5-GHz observations of CLASS B1030+074, a two-image strong gravitational lens system whose background source is a compact flat-spectrum radio quasar. In such systems we expect a third image of the background source to form close to the centre of the lensing galaxy. The existence and brightness of such images is important for investigation of the central mass distributions of lensing galaxies, but only one secure detection has been made so far in a galaxy-scale lens system. The noise levels achieved in our new B1030+074 images reach 3 microJy/beam and represent an improvement in central image constraints of nearly an order of magnitude over previous work, with correspondingly better resulting limits on the shape of the central mass profile of the lensing galaxy. Simple models with an isothermal outer power law slope now require either the influence of a central supermassive black hole, or an inner power law slope very close to isothermal, in order to suppress the central image below our detection limit. Using the central mass profiles inferred from light distributions in Virgo galaxies, moved to z=0.5, and matching to the observed Einstein radius, we now find that 45% of such mass profiles should give observable central images, 10% should give central images with a flux density still below our limit, and the remaining systems have extreme demagnification produced by the central SMBH. Further observations of similar objects will therefore allow proper statistical constraints to be placed on the central properties of elliptical galaxies at high redshift.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2016

Star Formation in Luminous Quasars at 2<z<3

We investigate the relation between star formation rates ($\dot{M}_{s}$) and AGN properties in optically selected type 1 quasars at $2<z<3$ using data from Herschel and the SDSS. We find that $\dot{\rm{M}}_s$ remains approximately constant with redshift, at $300\pm100~\rm{M}_{\odot}$yr$^{-1}$. Conversely, $\dot{\rm{M}}_s$ increases with AGN luminosity, up to a maximum of $\sim600~\rm{M}_{\odot}$yr$^{-1}$, and with CIV FWHM. In context with previous results, this is consistent with a relation between $\dot{\rm{M}}_s$ and black hole accretion rate ($\dot{\rm{M}}_{bh}$) existing in only parts of the $z-\dot{\rm{M}}_{s}-\dot{\rm{M}}_{bh}$ plane, dependent on the free gas fraction, the trigger for activity, and the processes that may quench star formation. The relations between $\dot{\rm{M}}_s$ and both AGN luminosity and CIV FWHM are consistent with star formation rates in quasars scaling with black hole mass, though we cannot rule out a separate relation with black hole accretion rate. Star formation rates are observed to decline with increasing CIV equivalent width. This decline can be partially explained via the Baldwin effect, but may have an additional contribution from one or more of three factors; $M_i$ is not a linear tracer of L$_{2500}$, the Baldwin effect changes form at high AGN luminosities, and high CIV EW values signpost a change in the relation between $\dot{\rm{M}}_s$ and $\dot{\rm{M}}_{bh}$. Finally, there is no strong relation between $\dot{\rm{M}}_s$ and Eddington ratio, or the asymmetry of the CIV line. The former suggests that star formation rates do not scale with how efficiently the black hole is accreting, while the latter is consistent with CIV asymmetries arising from orientation effects.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2016

POLARBEAR Constraints on Cosmic Birefringence and Primordial Magnetic Fields

We constrain anisotropic cosmic birefringence using four-point correlations of even-parity $E$-mode and odd-parity $B$-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background measurements made by the POLARization of the Background Radiation (POLARBEAR) experiment in its first season of observations. We find that the anisotropic cosmic birefringence signal from any parity-violating processes is consistent with zero. The Faraday rotation from anisotropic cosmic birefringence can be compared with the equivalent quantity generated by primordial magnetic fields if they existed. The POLARBEAR nondetection translates into a 95% confidence level (C.L.) upper limit of 93 nanogauss (nG) on the amplitude of an equivalent primordial magnetic field inclusive of systematic uncertainties. This four-point correlation constraint on Faraday rotation is about 15 times tighter than the upper limit of 1380 nG inferred from constraining the contribution of Faraday rotation to two-point correlations of $B$-modes measured by Planck in 2015. Metric perturbations sourced by primordial magnetic fields would also contribute to the $B$-mode power spectrum. Using the POLARBEAR measurements of the $B$-mode power spectrum (two-point correlation), we set a 95% C.L. upper limit of 3.9 nG on primordial magnetic fields assuming a flat prior on the field amplitude. This limit is comparable to what was found in the Planck 2015 two-point correlation analysis with both temperature and polarization. We perform a set of systematic error tests and find no evidence for contamination. This work marks the first time that anisotropic cosmic birefringence or primordial magnetic fields have been constrained from the ground at subdegree scales.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2015

Assessment of the potential impacts of plant traits across environments by combining global sensitivity analysis and dynamic modeling in wheat

A crop can be viewed as a complex system with outputs (e.g. yield) that are affected by inputs of genetic, physiology, pedo-climatic and management information. Application of numerical methods for model exploration assist in evaluating the major most influential inputs, providing the simulation model is a credible description of the biological system. A sensitivity analysis was used to assess the simulated impact on yield of a suite of traits involved in major processes of crop growth and development, and to evaluate how the simulated value of such traits varies across environments and in relation to other traits (which can be interpreted as a virtual change in genetic background). The study focused on wheat in Australia, with an emphasis on adaptation to low rainfall conditions. A large set of traits (90) was evaluated in a wide target population of environments (4 sites x 125 years), management practices (3 sowing dates x 2 N fertilization) and $CO_2$ (2 levels). The Morris sensitivity analysis method was used to sample the parameter space and reduce computational requirements, while maintaining a realistic representation of the targeted trait x environment x management landscape ($\sim$ 82 million individual simulations in total). The patterns of parameter x environment x management interactions were investigated for the most influential parameters, considering a potential genetic range of +/- 20% compared to a reference. Main (i.e. linear) and interaction (i.e. non-linear and interaction) sensitivity indices calculated for most of APSIM-Wheat parameters allowed the identifcation of 42 parameters substantially impacting yield in most target environments. Among these, a subset of parameters related to phenology, resource acquisition, resource use efficiency and biomass allocation were identified as potential candidates for crop (and model) improvement.

q-bio.QM↗