arXiv subjects

Scott Lee

Publications and source records attributed to Scott Lee.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Either a Confidence Interval Covers, or It Doesn't (Or Does It?): A Model-Based View of Ex-Post Coverage Probability

In Neyman's original formulation, a 1-alpha confidence interval procedure is justified by its long-run coverage properties, and a single realized interval is to be described only by the slogan that it either covers the parameter or it does not. On this view, post-data probability statements about the coverage of an individual interval are taken to be conceptually out of bounds. In this paper, I present two kinds of arguments against treating that "either-or" reading as the only legitimate interpretation of confidence. The first is informal, via a set of thought experiments in which the same joint probability model is used to compute both forward-looking and backward-looking probabilities for occurred-but-unobserved events. The second is more formal, recasting the standard confidence-interval construction in terms of infinite sequences of trials and their associated 0/1 coverage indicators. In that representation, the design-level coverage probability 1-alpha and the degenerate conditional probabilities given the full data appear simply as different conditioning levels of the same model. I argue that a strict behavioristic reading that privileges only the latter is in tension with the very mathematical machinery used to define long-run error rates. I then sketch an alternative view of confidence as a predictive probability (or forecast) about the coverage indicator, together with a simple normative rule for when intermediate probabilities for single coverage events should be allowed. Keywords: confidence intervals; coverage probability; frequentist inference; single-case probability; predictive probability; Neyman. Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

stat.OT↗

arXiv2026

Confidence as Forecast: A Decision-Theoretic Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

What, if anything, should a frequentist say about a single realized confidence interval (CI) and its chance of having covered the parameter? Jerzy Neyman's original answer was to refuse any nondegenerate probability for coverage ex post and, instead, to "state that the interval covers". In this paper I argue that the usual frequentist machinery already supports a different reading. I treat the coverage event as a Bernoulli random variable, with the nominal level 1-alpha as its design-based success probability, and view "confidence" as a probability forecast for that Bernoulli outcome. Using strictly proper scoring rules, I show that 1-alpha is the unique optimal constant forecast for coverage, both before and after observing the data, and that it remains optimal post-trial in common unbounded, translation-invariant models with pivot-based CIs. When the design yields a theta-free statistic--such as the relative width of the interval in a finite-window uniform model--the conditional coverage given that statistic provides a nonconstant, design-based refinement of 1-alpha that strictly improves predictive performance. Two thought experiments, a Monty Hall-style shell game and the "lost submarine" example of Morey et al. (2016), illustrate how this perspective resolves familiar interpretational puzzles about CIs without appealing to priors or single-case subjective degrees of belief. I conclude with simple "what to do when you see an interval" guidance for applied work and some implications for teaching confidence intervals as tools for forecasting long-run coverage. Keywords: Confidence intervals, coverage probability, proper scoring rules, probabilistic forecasting, frequentist inference Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

stat.OT↗

arXiv2025

The Streaming Batch Model for Efficient and Fault-Tolerant Heterogeneous Execution

While ML model training and inference are both GPU-intensive, CPU-based data processing is often the bottleneck. Distributed data processing systems based on the batch or stream processing models assume homogeneous resource requirements. They excel at CPU-based computation but either under-utilize heterogeneous resources or impose high overheads on failure and reconfiguration. We introduce the streaming batch model, a hybrid of batch and streaming that enables efficient and fault-tolerant heterogeneous execution. The key idea is to use partitions as the unit of execution to achieve elasticity, but to allow partitions to be dynamically created and streamed between heterogeneous operators for memory-efficient pipelining. We present Ray Data, a streaming batch system that improves throughput on heterogeneous batch inference pipelines by 2.5-12$\times$ compared to traditional batch and stream processing systems. By leveraging heterogeneous clusters, Ray Data improves training throughput for multimodal models such as Stable Diffusion by 31% compared to single-node ML data loaders.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2022

Pond: CXL-Based Memory Pooling Systems for Cloud Platforms

Public cloud providers seek to meet stringent performance requirements and low hardware cost. A key driver of performance and cost is main memory. Memory pooling promises to improve DRAM utilization and thereby reduce costs. However, pooling is challenging under cloud performance requirements. This paper proposes Pond, the first memory pooling system that both meets cloud performance goals and significantly reduces DRAM cost. Pond builds on the Compute Express Link (CXL) standard for load/store access to pool memory and two key insights. First, our analysis of cloud production traces shows that pooling across 8-16 sockets is enough to achieve most of the benefits. This enables a small-pool design with low access latency. Second, it is possible to create machine learning models that can accurately predict how much local and pool memory to allocate to a virtual machine (VM) to resemble same-NUMA-node memory performance. Our evaluation with 158 workloads shows that Pond reduces DRAM costs by 7% with performance within 1-5% of same-NUMA-node VM allocations.

cs.OS↗

arXiv2022

Blackbox Post-Processing for Multiclass Fairness

Applying standard machine learning approaches for classification can produce unequal results across different demographic groups. When then used in real-world settings, these inequities can have negative societal impacts. This has motivated the development of various approaches to fair classification with machine learning models in recent years. In this paper, we consider the problem of modifying the predictions of a blackbox machine learning classifier in order to achieve fairness in a multiclass setting. To accomplish this, we extend the 'post-processing' approach in Hardt et al. 2016, which focuses on fairness for binary classification, to the setting of fair multiclass classification. We explore when our approach produces both fair and accurate predictions through systematic synthetic experiments and also evaluate discrimination-fairness tradeoffs on several publicly available real-world application datasets. We find that overall, our approach produces minor drops in accuracy and enforces fairness when the number of individuals in the dataset is high relative to the number of classes and protected groups.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

NBDT: Neural-Backed Decision Trees

Machine learning applications such as finance and medicine demand accurate and justifiable predictions, barring most deep learning methods from use. In response, previous work combines decision trees with deep learning, yielding models that (1) sacrifice interpretability for accuracy or (2) sacrifice accuracy for interpretability. We forgo this dilemma by jointly improving accuracy and interpretability using Neural-Backed Decision Trees (NBDTs). NBDTs replace a neural network's final linear layer with a differentiable sequence of decisions and a surrogate loss. This forces the model to learn high-level concepts and lessens reliance on highly-uncertain decisions, yielding (1) accuracy: NBDTs match or outperform modern neural networks on CIFAR, ImageNet and better generalize to unseen classes by up to 16%. Furthermore, our surrogate loss improves the original model's accuracy by up to 2%. NBDTs also afford (2) interpretability: improving human trustby clearly identifying model mistakes and assisting in dataset debugging. Code and pretrained NBDTs are at https://github.com/alvinwan/neural-backed-decision-trees.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2019

The Many AI Challenges of Hearthstone

Games have benchmarked AI methods since the inception of the field, with classic board games such as Chess and Go recently leaving room for video games with related yet different sets of challenges. The set of AI problems associated with video games has in recent decades expanded from simply playing games to win, to playing games in particular styles, generating game content, modeling players etc. Different games pose very different challenges for AI systems, and several different AI challenges can typically be posed by the same game. In this article we analyze the popular collectible card game Hearthstone (Blizzard 2014) and describe a varied set of interesting AI challenges posed by this game. Collectible card games are relatively understudied in the AI community, despite their popularity and the interesting challenges they pose. Analyzing a single game in-depth in the manner we do here allows us to see the entire field of AI and Games through the lens of a single game, discovering a few new variations on existing research topics.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

Evolving the Hearthstone Meta

Balancing an ever growing strategic game of high complexity, such as Hearthstone is a complex task. The target of making strategies diverse and customizable results in a delicate intricate system. Tuning over 2000 cards to generate the desired outcome without disrupting the existing environment becomes a laborious challenge. In this paper, we discuss the impacts that changes to existing cards can have on strategy in Hearthstone. By analyzing the win rate on match-ups across different decks, being played by different strategies, we propose to compare their performance before and after changes are made to improve or worsen different cards. Then, using an evolutionary algorithm, we search for a combination of changes to the card attributes that cause the decks to approach equal, 50% win rates. We then expand our evolutionary algorithm to a multi-objective solution to search for this result, while making the minimum amount of changes, and as a consequence disruption, to the existing cards. Lastly, we propose and evaluate metrics to serve as heuristics with which to decide which cards to target with balance changes.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2019

Mapping Hearthstone Deck Spaces through MAP-Elites with Sliding Boundaries

Quality diversity (QD) algorithms such as MAP-Elites have emerged as a powerful alternative to traditional single-objective optimization methods. They were initially applied to evolutionary robotics problems such as locomotion and maze navigation, but have yet to see widespread application. We argue that these algorithms are perfectly suited to the rich domain of video games, which contains many relevant problems with a multitude of successful strategies and often also multiple dimensions along which solutions can vary. This paper introduces a novel modification of the MAP-Elites algorithm called MAP-Elites with Sliding Boundaries (MESB) and applies it to the design and rebalancing of Hearthstone, a popular collectible card game chosen for its number of multidimensional behavior features relevant to particular styles of play. To avoid overpopulating cells with conflated behaviors, MESB slides the boundaries of cells based on the distribution of evolved individuals. Experiments in this paper demonstrate the performance of MESB in Hearthstone. Results suggest MESB finds diverse ways of playing the game well along the selected behavioral dimensions. Further analysis of the evolved strategies reveals common patterns that recur across behavioral dimensions and explores how MESB can help rebalance the game.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2018

Talakat: Bullet Hell Generation through Constrained Map-Elites

We describe a search-based approach to generating new levels for bullet hell games, which are action games characterized by and requiring avoidance of a very large amount of projectiles. Levels are represented using a domain-specific description language, and search in the space defined by this language is performed by a novel variant of the Map-Elites algorithm which incorporates a feasible- infeasible approach to constraint satisfaction. Simulation-based evaluation is used to gauge the fitness of levels, using an agent based on best-first search. The performance of the agent can be tuned according to the two dimensions of strategy and dexterity, making it possible to search for level configurations that require a specific combination of both. As far as we know, this paper describes the first generator for this game genre, and includes several algorithmic innovations.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2018

Natural Language Generation for Electronic Health Records

A variety of methods existing for generating synthetic electronic health records (EHRs), but they are not capable of generating unstructured text, like emergency department (ED) chief complaints, history of present illness or progress notes. Here, we use the encoder-decoder model, a deep learning algorithm that features in many contemporary machine translation systems, to generate synthetic chief complaints from discrete variables in EHRs, like age group, gender, and discharge diagnosis. After being trained end-to-end on authentic records, the model can generate realistic chief complaint text that preserves much of the epidemiological information in the original data. As a side effect of the model's optimization goal, these synthetic chief complaints are also free of relatively uncommon abbreviation and misspellings, and they include none of the personally-identifiable information (PII) that was in the training data, suggesting it may be used to support the de-identification of text in EHRs. When combined with algorithms like generative adversarial networks (GANs), our model could be used to generate fully-synthetic EHRs, facilitating data sharing between healthcare providers and researchers and improving our ability to develop machine learning methods tailored to the information in healthcare data.

cs.CL↗