arXiv subjects

Scott M. Ransom

Publications and source records attributed to Scott M. Ransom.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CHIME All-sky Multiday Pulsar Stacking Search (CHAMPSS): Power Spectrum Injections and Survey Sensitivity

Artificial signal injection into real data is a key tool in time-domain radio astronomy, with particular import to the study of pulsars and Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs). Many surveys inject into the time series to probe observational biases impacting the detection of radio transients. In the case of the CHIME All-sky Multiday Pulsar Stack Search (CHAMPSS), the computational demands of both hardware and software time series injections force an alternative approach. We present methods for injecting artificial pulsar signals into the Fourier power spectrum. The injection process detailed here is computationally negligible compared to the overhead of the CHAMPSS search pipeline. We use injections to probe the in-system biases of the CHAMPSS survey. CHAMPSS is most sensitive to pulsars with frequencies on the order of 0.1 - 100 Hz and fluxes > 1 mJy. Our injections show weak overall sensitivity dependence on other factors such as dispersion measure (DM), duty cycle, and sky coordinates, but complex non-monotonic interactions between all parameters. Our findings suggest that frequency-dependent noise, especially low-frequency or "red" noise, and sampling limitations at higher frequencies are the dominant extrinsic factors decreasing CHAMPSS' sensitivity to pulsars.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Globular Clusters GMRT Pulsar Survey (GCGPS) III: ORION - a multi-beam acceleration search pipeline

Globular clusters host rich millisecond pulsar populations, but the known population remains incomplete. We present the observing strategy for Phase II of the Globular Clusters GMRT Pulsar Survey (GCGPS), which uses the SPOTLIGHT system to form 160 synthesised beams simultaneously, substantially expanding the instantaneous field of view compared with the two phased-array beams of Phase I. The configuration is tunable through the beam overlap and the number of contributing antennas, allowing spatial coverage to be balanced against sensitivity. We quantify the sensitivity losses from intra-channel dispersion smearing and finite sampling, which motivate the adopted dispersion-measure limits of 50 and 150 pc/cc for Bands 3 and 4. To process the resulting data, we introduce ORION, a GPU-accelerated pipeline that combines the high-throughput Fourier-domain filtering of PULSCAN with localised parameter refinement using PRESTO. In single-beam tests with simulated binary pulsars, ORION reduces processing time by a factor of approximately 15 to 30 relative to the CPU-based Phase I pipeline, with comparable or higher folded detection significance. On-sky validation with Cycle 49 observations recovered four known globular cluster pulsars with spin periods of approximately 5.4 to 406 ms. Using eight GPUs and 64 CPU cores, ORION processes full 160-beam observations in approximately 0.25 to 0.33 times the observation duration, corresponding to three to four times real-time throughput. Together, the Phase II strategy and ORION provide a scalable framework for expanding globular cluster pulsar searches, with future development targeting highly accelerated and jerked binary systems.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

A Coherent Harmonic Summing Pulsar Search Code

Pulsars have narrow pulses, so their signals spread over many harmonics in a Fourier transform. Standard pulsar searches add the powers of those harmonics and discard their phases, which throws away the pulse shape and some of the signal. Folding the time series at each trial period keeps both, but is expensive even with the Fast Folding Algorithm (FFA). We describe CoherentSearch.jl, an open-source Julia code that reconstructs the pulse profile at every trial spin frequency directly from the Fourier transform. It interpolates the complex amplitudes of typically 60 harmonics, inverse transforms them into a profile, and tests that profile against boxcar templates of many widths. Because the input spectrum is normalized, the noise in every profile is known in closed form, so one threshold gives one false-alarm rate across the whole search. In an injection study of over 860,000 simulated pulsars at a matched false-alarm rate, the new search recovers 76% of the pulsars in white noise, against 64% for riptide's FFA in its recommended configuration and 42% for PRESTO's accelsearch, and its threshold does not move under red noise. On one CPU core it is 1.4-2.2 times faster than riptide at matched frequency coverage, it scales to 27 times faster on 48 cores, and modern GPUs run it up to nine times faster than a 20-core workstation.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Dataset: Modified Functional Forms for Profile-Evolution Time Delays in Pulsar Timing Models

Radio pulsars exhibit frequency-dependent variations in the shape of their pulse profiles that introduce systematic delays in the observed pulse times of arrival (TOA) across an observing band. The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) models these delays using a frequency-dependent (FD) log-polynomial function whose coefficients are fit to TOA measurements at different radio frequencies. However, FD parameters are prone to absorbing power from other chromatic effects, such as interstellar dispersion, leading to fitted FD values that overestimate profile evolution and vary significantly across datasets. To separate these effects, we introduce two new mathematical formulations of profile evolution: a monomial expansion (IFD) and a Legendre polynomial expansion (LIFD). We test these models on observations of 11 pulsars in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset and on simulated data, and also compare their performance to that of frequency-resolved pulse templates. We find that Legendre-based models generally predict timing delays that more closely replicate the true profile evolution, reducing the residual offset relative to FD by as much as 85% for the simulated data. Additionally, we find that the choice of profile evolution model can bias the fitted dispersion model, with FD-based models overestimating the injected DM by 0.013 pc cm^-3 compared to 0.0002 pc cm^-3 for LIFD. These results support the use of Legendre bases to mitigate covariances between chromatic effects, directly benefiting targeted timing studies of these effects and the development of advanced noise-modeling techniques for nanohertz gravitational-wave detection.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Optimal Pulsar Timing Array Strategies with the Deep Synoptic Array

Pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments have seen evidence for a nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) through coordinated radio timing observations of millisecond pulsars. The significance of this evidence is expected to grow and the GWB's progenitor(s) uncovered with continued observations, especially as the next generation of radio telescopes comes online. We present a framework for simulating timing observations of a set of pulsars with a set of telescopes to predict the per-pulsar optimal instrument, observing frequency, and integration time. We apply this methodology to the NANOGrav source list of 85 pulsars observed with the Green Bank Telescope, Very Large Array, Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME), and the Deep Synoptic Array (DSA), a radio dish array under construction in Nevada. We discuss the dominant noise contributions to the timing precision of these pulsars and show that most are not dominated by intrinsic pulse phase jitter noise. We also determine which pulsars should be timed with DSA and CHIME or only DSA and show that an ab initio DSA PTA is more sensitive than one which uses current instruments. Finally, we solve for the optimal integration time per pulsar, subject to a fixed time budget, that maximizes the GWB signal-to-noise. We show that there is little benefit to optimizing over integration time for these pulsars observed with DSA. Through Monte Carlo realizations of the PTA, we show that the GWB sensitivity improves by $\sim 5\%$ for time-optimized observations compared to the equal-time-per-source scenario with an early-science, fixed source list.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Lack of Resolvable Sources in the NANOGrav 15-yr Dataset

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) have found evidence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) consistent with a population of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), but have not yet resolved a continuous wave (CW) from an individual binary. We present the first SMBHB population constraints incorporating PTA upper limits on CWs, based on the NANOGrav 15-year (NG15) data. Using semi-analytic models to generate simulated populations, we calculate each sample's GWB likelihood by free spectral comparison and CW nondetection (nCW) likelihoods by (1) mapping each realization's highest CW signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) to a detection probability and (2) counting the fraction of realizations without a binary close enough that NG15 would have detected it. CW nondetection favors populations in which many lower-mass sources, rather than a few ultramassive ones, dominate the GWB. This information is complementary to that provided by the GWB amplitude, breaking the degeneracy between the masses and number of binaries required to reproduce the observed spectrum. Relative to GWB-only constraints, the joint posteriors favor higher galaxy merger rates, lower $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ scatter, shorter binary lifetimes, and steeper small-separation hardening. The most detectable sources in the S/N-weighted joint posterior have chirp masses $\sim 10^{9.6} M_\odot$, luminosity distances $\sim$1300 Mpc, and frequencies $\sim$6 nHz, while the nCW-only constraints favor lower frequencies, coinciding with the NG15 4 nHz candidate. These constraints will tighten if CW nondetection continues.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

The first MeerKAT S-band globular cluster pulsar survey

Globular clusters are efficient factories of recycled pulsars, but searches toward high-dispersion-measure (DM) clusters can be strongly limited near 1 GHz by dispersive smearing and interstellar scattering. We present the first MeerKAT S-band (nu ~ 2.4 GHz) pulsar survey of 14 globular clusters. High time- and frequency-resolution observations were searched using segmented acceleration and jerk techniques, followed by candidate folding and targeted folding with available timing ephemerides. We re-detected 39 known pulsars and discovered four new millisecond pulsars in Glimpse-C01: J1848-0129C, D, E, and F. Multi-epoch follow-up enabled preliminary Keplerian orbital fits for J1848-0129C and J1848-0129D. J1848-0129C is an eclipsing MSP in a ~5 d orbit, placing it among long-period eclipsing systems known as huntsman binaries, while J1848-0129D is in a ~3.4 d nearly circular orbit with a massive white-dwarf companion of about 1 solar mass. Two Glimpse-C01 pulsars show large DM offsets from the cluster average. Comparison with other Galactic globular clusters indicates that intracluster DM spreads tend to increase with foreground DM, implying that narrow DM search windows may be sub-optimal for high-DM clusters. From detections and non-detections, we infer a practical single-epoch MeerKAT S-band tied-array detectability scale of about 10-20 microJy. These results demonstrate the value of high-frequency searches for pulsars in strongly dispersed and scattered cluster environments.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

JUG: JAX-based Unified pulsar timinG

We present JUG (JAX-based Unified pulsar timinG), a JAX-based, fully independent pulsar timing package emphasising speed and ease of use, designed to confidently handle the increasingly large and complex pulsar timing array datasets that are being created in the pulsar timing field. JUG implements the entire pulsar timing pipeline itself, from data handling and clock corrections through to the timing model and fitting, without relying on other timing software. It enables Pythonic programming at the speed of compiled code, is GPU-capable, and can be operated via a Python API or an interactive GUI. A user of JUG can interactively explore data, fit timing models with complex stochastic noise, model deterministic signals such as continuous gravitational waves, and obtain accurate point estimates of the parameters of the stochastic processes present, thereby bridging frequentist timing and Bayesian noise analysis. JUG is faster than PINT by more than fifty times and is comparably fast to Tempo2, can handle millions of arrival times, agrees with PINT at the picosecond level, and can reliably recover known timing model and noise parameter values. In this paper we describe its design, performance, and validation, and demonstrate its advantages for pulsar timing data analysis.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Discovery of an Extremely Luminous Sporadic Radio Pulsar

We have discovered PSR J2108+5055, an extremely luminous but sporadic mode-changing rotating radio transient (RRAT), with a period of 0.495 s using the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Fast Radio Burst instrument (CHIME/FRB). We show that the brightest pulse from PSR J2108+5055 has a flux density of 3.1+/-1.0 kJy, corresponding to a spectral luminosity of (7.5+/-2.3)x10^23 erg s^-1 Hz^-1, assuming a dispersion-measure-derived distance of 1.6+/-0.3 kpc. We place an upper limit on the duty cycle of PSR J2108+5055 at 0.002% and measure a surface magnetic field of 5.8x10^11 G, a characteristic age of 1.2x10^7 yr, and a spindown luminosity of 2.2x10^32 erg s^-1. Using a simple model based on the Green Bank North Celestial Cap (GBNCC) survey, we place an upper limit on the number of PSR J2108+5055-like sources with similar peak flux densities in the GBNCC survey area of ~80 RRATs. We show that if PSR J2108+5055 were placed at the edge of the Local Group of galaxies, the Five-Hundred-Meter Aperture Spherical Telescope (FAST) would detect its brightest pulse. The second brightest pulse has a peak flux density of 1.5+/-0.7 kJy, and FAST would detect such a pulse out to ~1 Mpc, covering the inner Local Group, including Andromeda.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Generalized Non-linear Bayesian Pulsar Timing with Enterprise

In this study, we use the Bayesian methods in the Enterprise package to examine the fully general parameterization of pulsar timing models in tandem with noise. We investigate four pulsars, PSR J1600$-$3053, PSR J2043+1711, PSR J0740+6620, and PSR J1640+2224, through the lens of Bayesian timing. These four are selected as they are well-studied, but exhibit interesting characteristics under the lens of Bayesian timing. Our new pulsar mass constraints (medians and 68\% confidence intervals) for our fully general non-linear Bayesian timing models are $m_{\mathrm{p}}=1.6(1)~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J2043+1711 and $m_{\mathrm{p}}=2.3^{+0.9}_{-0.7}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J1600$-$3053 both using the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data release, and $m_{\mathrm{p}}=2.06(6)~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J0740+6620 using the data from Fonseca, et al., 2021. We investigate the effects on placing physical priors on timing model parameters, including restricting the upper limit on the pulsar mass for PSR J1640+2224, which has a mass often estimated to be greater than $3~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. We find \ark{that restricting the allowed sampling space of the pulsar mass for PSR J1640+2224 to} $m_{\mathrm{p}}<3~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ results in a pulsar mass of $m_{\mathrm{p}}=2.2(5)~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ for PSR J1640+2224 using the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data release. For the first time, we find evidence for intrinsic red noise in PSR J2043+1711. We show how fully general Bayesian timing can better model the interplay of the intrinsic noise and the timing parameters.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Pulsar Timing Array Sensitivity to Anisotropy: Empirical Sensitivity Curves, Scaling Relations, and the Multi-Resolution Pixel Basis

We quantify pulsar timing array (PTA) sensitivity to anisotropy in the gravitational wave background using the cross-correlation based Fisher information matrix in the pixel and spherical harmonic bases. We use a set of simulations to empirically determine scaling relations of a PTA's sensitivity to anisotropy with the number of pulsars $N_\mathrm{psr}$ in the array, the error $δt$ on the times of arrival, the frequency $f_\mathrm{GW}$ of the gravitational waves, and the angular scale $ΔΩ$ of the anisotropy. The sensitivity scales approximately as $N_\mathrm{psr}^{0.8}$, $δt^{-0.08}$, and $ΔΩ^{1.6}-ΔΩ^{2.1}$ (depending on the ranges of $\ell$ and $m$ under consideration). In addition, we use realistic simulations to project the NANOGrav PTA sensitivity to a 30-year baseline and quantify the growth in sensitivity at several timeslices. Except at the lowest frequencies, we find negligible effect on sensitivity through increasing the observation duration only. Finally, we introduce a multi-resolution pixel basis motivated by the large dependence of the sensitivity on sky location, and demonstrate the operation of the basis through a set of injections and recoveries.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Exploring the optical properties of redback pulsars: The case of J1717+4308A in the globular cluster M92

Binary millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in globular clusters (GCs) are key for binary and stellar evolution studies under extreme conditions. The identification of their optical companion stars is instrumental in order to characterise these systems and to constrain the possible recycling mechanisms. For this work, we searched for the optical counterpart to PSR J1717+4308A (hereafter M92A) in the GC M92. To this end, we exploited a multi-epoch, multi-wavelength dataset obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope. We constructed colour--magnitude diagrams, investigated proper motions to assess cluster membership, and modelled the observed light curves. We identified an object located at only 0.02 arcsec from the nominal radio position as the likely optical companion to M92A. The star is significantly bluer than the main sequence at the same luminosity level and exhibits clear photometric variability with a periodicity in agreement with the orbital motion of the binary. The light curve displays two maxima and two minima, indicative of strong tidal distortion and only mild irradiation. Such mild irradiation is consistent with the ratio of the pulsar spin-down to the companion flux ($f_\mathrm{sd}$), which for M92A lies close to the boundary between ellipsoidal- and irradiation-dominated regimes ($f_\mathrm{sd} \approx 2.71$). From the light curve modelling we inferred the main physical properties of the companion star. The best-fit model indicates a high-inclination system with a relatively low-mass companion and a massive neutron star. With a base temperature of $\sim7200$ K, the companion ranks among the hottest redbacks known to date. This object therefore adds additional pieces to the puzzle of MSP companion properties and contributes to outlining the characteristics of redbacks across the different classes.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Mitigating the Timing Impact of Anomalous Pulse Profile Shape Variability in PSR J1713+0747 with Gaussian Component Modeling

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) achieves sub-microsecond timing precision for several millisecond pulsars in its pulsar timing array (PTA) with the objective of detecting and characterizing nanohertz gravitational waves. PSR J1713+0747 is one of the most precisely timed pulsars in the array, achieving sub-microsecond timing precision. However, in April 2021, PSR J1713+0747 underwent a sudden and unusual change in pulse shape that disrupted its timing stability. As PSR J1713+0747 is a key contributor to PTA sensitivity, variations in its pulse profile significantly affect the array's sensitivity to nanohertz gravitational waves. We apply frequency-dependent Gaussian component models to decompose the pulse profile and track the evolution of individual components through the event. This component-level method maintains phase-connected timing across the shape-change event. At L-band, the recovered TOAs have a median uncertainty of ~0.47 microseconds compared to ~0.69 microseconds for standard template matching. At 820 MHz, where profile evolution is stronger, the recovered TOAs have a median uncertainty of ~1.63 microseconds compared to ~0.67 microseconds for standard template matching. The recovered TOAs achieve timing uncertainties comparable to conventional template matching while allowing data affected by profile variability to be retained in PTA gravitational-wave analyses. These results represent an initial step toward profile-domain timing methods capable of accounting for pulse-profile evolution while reducing the need for additional timing model parameters.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Discovery and Timing of the First Millisecond Pulsar in NGC 6316

NGC 6316 is a poorly studied, distant, and massive globular cluster (GC) with prominent gamma-ray emission detected via the \textit{Fermi} Large Area Telescope (LAT). Based on gamma-ray spectral studies, NGC 6316 is expected to host tens of millisecond pulsars (MSPs). Using the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) and Murriyang, CSIRO's Parkes radio telescope (Parkes), we present the discovery and a 3.1 yr duration timing solution of the first millisecond pulsar found in the cluster. PSR J1716$-$2808A has a rotational period of 2.45\,ms and is in a binary with a $\sim$0.1 M$_\odot$ companion with an orbital period of 0.42 d. This is a typical cluster MSP within a compact orbit with no evidence of eclipses. PSR J1716$-$2808A has a dispersion measure DM = 172.26 pc cm$^{-3}$, which is lower than predicted NE2001, YMW16 and NE2025 electron density model values. The MSP is located within half a core radius from the cluster center and has a negative period derivative, implying that it is on the back side of the cluster and is being accelerated towards us. Given the negative period derivative, we report an upper limit on the maximum line-of-sight cluster acceleration, $a_{l,\textrm{GC}}/c \approx -2.3\times10^{-18}$ s$^{-1}$, experienced by the pulsar and constraints on the magnetic field to be $<\sim$3$\times$10$^{8}$ G. The presence of external acceleration strongly supports the pulsar to be within NGC 6316. We can better constrain NGC 6316's properties through longer-term timing of PSR~J1716$-$2808A or by finding more pulsars within the cluster. Based on the gamma-ray pulsar estimates and a cluster distance of 11.3 kpc, deeper, more sensitive searches would find many additional pulsars.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Evaluating the Fourier Approximation in Pulsar Timing Array Analysis

Pulsar timing arrays search for stochastic processes such as gravitational waves by comparing pulse time of arrival data for millisecond pulsars to expectations from a background with a given power spectral density (PSD). To make the analysis computationally tractable, the Bayesian likelihood is usually computed using an approximation in which the signal is taken to be a sum of Fourier modes appropriate to the total time of observation, even though the true signal is not periodic. We study the difference between likelihoods computed with this Fourier approximation method for power law spectra and those computed exactly (or using more-closely spaced frequencies as a proxy for the exact result) in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We find that the true marginal likelihoods for power-law PSDs are on average about half as large as the likelihoods computed using the Fourier approximation. This could lead to an error of a factor of two in model comparison. However, in the important comparison of uncorrelated vs. Hellings-Downs correlated models, a very similar correction appears in both, so the model comparison is essentially unaffected. We also compare parameter estimation results for power law PSDs, finding little difference between the methods. We briefly discuss spectra with sharper features, for which the approximation could be much worse.

gr-qc↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Impacts of Customized Chromatic Noise Models on Gravitational Wave Analyses

We report updated nHz gravitational wave (GW) significance, characterization, and interpretations using the customized chromatic-noise models (CNMs) developed in Larsen, Baier et al. (2026). for the NANOGrav 15-year data set. We find increased evidence for the Hellings-Downs (HD) correlation signature of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB), with a Bayes factor of $1571\pm14$ for HD-correlations over a common uncorrelated red-noise process using a power-law model with $14$ Fourier modes. We find this $\sim8\times$ increase in Bayes factor from Agazie et al. (2023a) is a result of improved noise mitigation. Assuming an analytic null distribution for the frequentist interpulsar correlation statistic, this corresponds to a slightly more significant measurement from $3.16σ$ to $3.32σ$ against the no-correlation scenario. Spectral inference with CNMs brings the power-law GWB amplitude down to $A_{\rm GWB} = 2.1^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\times10^{-15}$ at fixed $γ_{\rm GWB} = 13/3$. In a varied-$γ$ analysis, the spectral index increases to $γ_{\rm GWB}=3.5^{+0.7}_{-0.6}$. We report updates on an all-sky continuous gravitational wave (CW) search as well as select targeted searches and calculate a $3.2\times$ larger detection volume for the NANOGrav detector. With CNMs, we find reduced evidence for a non-Einsteinian, scalar-transverse mode of gravity. Finally, we reinterpret the GWB first with the assumption of an astrophysical background sourced by SMBHBs and then assuming the more exotic origins of cosmic inflation, a first-order cosmological phase transition, and stable cosmic strings. Under both the SMBHB hypothesis and the cosmological hypotheses, we see only marginal shifts in model parameter posteriors which are consistent with the slightly quieter and steeper power-law GWB spectrum.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Customized Chromatic Noise Models

Pulsar timing arrays conduct low-frequency gravitational wave searches, which require comprehensive accounting of various noise sources to achieve robust results. Interstellar propagation effects (e.g., dispersion and scattering) are especially complex noise sources, introducing chromatic delays that can reduce sensitivity to gravitational waves and bias their inference if left unmodeled. These delays also strongly depend on the line of sight properties to each individual pulsar. To address this, we present customized chromatic noise models for 67 pulsars in the NANOGrav 15 yr dataset. These models are selected from an expanded suite of Gaussian processes to simultaneously characterize multiple types of chromatic delays and are tailored to each pulsar's dataset. Alongside probing the interstellar medium, we use these models to infer the solar wind electron density over the course of $\sim 1.5$ solar cycles. We also find evidence for non-dispersive chromatic delays in 21 out of 67 NANOGrav pulsars. After applying our chromatic models, we observe significant impacts on the inference of achromatic noise in 19 out of 67 pulsars, finding in several cases that a previously significant achromatic noise process can be partially or entirely described as chromatic. These results demonstrate that refined noise modeling is essential to enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of low-frequency gravitational wave searches with pulsar timing arrays.

astro-ph.HE↗

arXiv2026

Gravitational Wave Measurement of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ Intrinsic Scatter at High Redshift

The observed GWB spectrum is higher in amplitude than model predictions by a factor of 2-3. Using a semi-analytic model, we evaluate the effect of a high-scatter supermassive black hole (SMBH) scaling relation ($M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$) on models of the nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). By implementing an intrinsic scatter of the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation, which is larger at higher redshift, but matches local observations, we find that the amplitude of GWB models increases to be consistent with the low-frequency end of the GWB spectrum. This amplitude increase is not uniform across frequencies, a strongly evolving scatter preferentially increases the number density of the most massive SMBHs which, in the GWB spectrum, minimizes the strength of the low-frequency turnover. Our models with positively evolving intrinsic scatter can reproduce the electromagnetically observed overmassive SMBHs at $4 < z < 6$ without changing the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ normalization though we find that including moderate normalization evolution marginally improves fits to the GWB data. We conclude that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation which best describes the available GWB and electromagnetic data sets has intrinsic scatter that evolves as $\varepsilon(z) = \varepsilon_0 + (0.56 \pm 0.4) \log_{10}(1 + z)$ and normalization that evolves as $α(z) = α_0 (1 + z)^{0.84 \pm 0.35}$. The results of this work imply that the $M_\mathrm{BH}$-$M_\mathrm{bulge}$ relation we see today is not universal throughout cosmic time and that a diversity of seeding models and growth mechanisms may be at play in the early stages of SMBH-galaxy evolution.

astro-ph.HE↗