arXiv subjects

Sebastian Junges

Publications and source records attributed to Sebastian Junges.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Adaptive Policy Portfolios for Robust Markov Decision Processes

Robust Markov decision processes optimize one policy against a set of plausible transition functions. This can be conservative when the unknown dynamics are fixed and become partially identifiable after deployment. We study adaptive policy portfolios: finite sets of memoryless randomized policies synthesized offline and paired with a lightweight online selector. Robust regret is a natural measure of portfolio quality: for each plausible environment, it measures the loss of the best portfolio member relative to the policy that would have been optimal had that environment been known. Related regret objectives were studied by Ghavamzadeh et al. (2016) with an emphasis on approximations and relaxations for safe policy improvement. We give a complexity-theoretic account of portfolio certification and synthesis. Certifying a given portfolio is $\forall\mathbb{R}$-complete already for deterministic portfolios in acyclic (s,a)-rectangular RMDPs. Synthesizing a portfolio of unary-bounded size is $\exists\forall\mathbb{R}$-complete for general rational polytopes, even with fixed discount and acyclic dynamics. The single-policy case is already hard, both combinatorially and algebraically. Finally, we present an offline portfolio construction that is amenable to runtime specialization.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Multiobjective Preexpectation Reasoning for Probabilistic Programs

Probabilistic programs with nondeterminism model planning problems in which a strategy resolves the nondeterminism to optimize an expected outcome. We study the multiobjective setting, optimizing several outcomes at once along a Pareto front, and provide a deductive, program-level account of strategy synthesis. Its core is a multiobjective preexpectation transformer mapping a tuple of postexpectations to the set of simultaneously achievable values, an element of the convex Hoare powerdomain. It conservatively extends weakest preexpectations and lifts standard loop rules. We develop rules to synthesize witnessing strategies as mixed determinizations that randomize over non-probabilistic determinizations. We prove the transformer and synthesis rules sound against an operational MDP semantics, without requiring a finite state space: our approach can be seen as a symbolic approach - at program level - for multiobjective optimization over infinite MDPs. We demonstrate our machinery using various case studies.

cs.PL↗

arXiv2026

UMB: A Unified Markov Binary Format for Probabilistic Model Checking (extended version)

This paper presents the unified Markov binary (UMB) format, an efficient, extensible, and well-supported explicit-state file format for representing a wide range of probabilistic systems. UMB addresses the problem that, while probabilistic model checking tools often support common high-level modelling languages, there is no effective mechanism for exchanging low-level model representations. In practice, textual, tool-specific formats are used, hampering interoperability and resulting in large overheads in writing and reading model files. UMB provides a clean, unified, and efficient solution, based on a general underlying mathematical model, and encoded using a small set of bit-level primitive data structures. The format has already been adopted by prominent tools and comes with a convenient Python library for reading, manipulating, creating, and validating models, plus infrastructure for cross-tool installation and continuous validation. We report on both the efficiency of the file format and the new practical use cases that it facilitates.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2026

Scalable Probabilistic Program Verification via Typed Extended Decision Diagrams

Weakest pre-expectations are the probabilistic program analogue to weakest preconditions in classical programs. Deductive verification approaches aim to establish bounds on these quantitative expectations. Their automation has been successful in analysing a variety of discrete probabilistic programs. Key routines in that automation require reasoning about (partially unrolled) loops, however, the logical representation of weakest pre-expectations on such unrollings often explodes. In this paper, we develop typed extended decision diagrams (TEDDs), inspired by various extensions to binary decision diagrams. We demonstrate computing WPs represented as TEDDs, SMT-based pruning to further shrink their representation, and we lift some proof rules to operate on TEDDs. Finally, we demonstrate that TEDDs boost the scalability of deductive probabilistic program verification by orders of magnitudes over the state of the art.

cs.PL↗

arXiv2026

Fast Computation of Conditional Probabilities in MDPs and Markov Chain Families

Computing optimal conditional reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is tractable by a reduction to reachability probabilities. Yet, this reduction yields cyclic, challenging MDPs that are often notoriously hard to solve. We present an alternative, practically efficient method to compute optimal conditional reachabilities. This new method is numerically stable, can decide the threshold problem in linear time on acyclic MDPs, and yields performance comparable to standard reachability queries. We also integrate the method in an abstraction-refinement framework to analyse millions of Markov chains at once. We demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods on benchmarks from Bayesian network analysis, probabilistic programs, and runtime monitoring and show speed-ups up to multiple orders of magnitude.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2026

Shields to Guarantee Probabilistic Safety in MDPs

Shielding is a prominent model-based technique to ensure safety of autonomous agents. Classical shielding aims to ensure that nothing bad ever happens and comes with strong guarantees about safety and maximal permissiveness. However, shielding systems for probabilistic safety, where something bad is allowed to happen with an acceptable probability, has proven to be more intricate. This paper presents a formal framework that conservatively extends classical shields to probabilistic safety. In this framework, we (i) demonstrate the impossibility of preserving the strong guarantees on safety and permissiveness, (ii) provide natural shields with weaker guarantees, and (iii) introduce offline and online shield constructions ensuring strong safety guarantees. The empirical evaluation highlights the practical advantages of the new shields, as well as their computational feasibility.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2026

Tractable Hyperproperties for MDPs

Probabilistic hyperproperties describe probabilistic relations between multiple sets of executions in a stochastic system. Prominent examples include information-theoretic characterizations of security and privacy policies. However, model checking for existing probabilistic hyperlogics, such as HyperPCTL and PHL, is undecidable in Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we study an underexplored problem: the verification of fragments of probabilistic hyperproperties that relate the probabilities of different events to each other, possibly across independent executions of an MDP. Representative verification questions include: Can two different target states be reached from the same initial state with the same probability? (different events), Can a given target state be reached from two different initial states with the same probability? (same event, independent executions), and natural combinations of these forms. Besides reachability, our relational probabilistic properties cover safety, B\"uchi, and coB\"uchi objectives. They can also be combined conjunctively, thereby generalizing standard multi-objective MDP properties. We provide efficient algorithms for relevant classes of relational properties, while proving computational hardness and completeness results for others. An implementation of our approach outperforms solvers for more general probabilistic hyperlogics by orders of magnitude on the subset of their benchmarks that lies within our fragment.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Model Checking Taken by Storm

This tutorial paper presents a hands-on perspective on probabilistic model checking with the Storm model checker. Storm is a decade-old model checker that excels in performance and a rich Python-based ecosystem, which makes it easy to integrate in various workflows. This tutorial focuses on Markov decision processes (MDP), which are popular in a variety of fields. It demonstrates the basic workflow, from Python-based modeling, model checking with a variety of properties, to the extraction of policies. Further, it showcases the support for recent topics that focus on different types of uncertainty, such as interval MDP and POMDP, and the ability to quickly implement simple algorithms on top of existing data structures.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2026

Error-awareness Accelerates Active Automata Learning

Active automata learning (AAL) algorithms can learn a behavioral model of a system from interacting with it. The primary challenge remains scaling to larger models, in particular in the presence of many possible inputs to the system. Modern AAL algorithms fail to scale even if, in every state, most inputs lead to errors. In various challenging problems from the literature, these errors are observable, i.e., they emit a known error output. Motivated by these problems, we study learning these systems more efficiently. Further, we consider various degrees of knowledge about which inputs are non-error producing at which state. For each level of knowledge, we provide a matching adaptation of the state-of-the-art AAL algorithm L# to make the most of this domain knowledge. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the methods accelerate learning by orders of magnitude with strong but realistic domain knowledge to a single order of magnitude with limited domain knowledge.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning Robust Markov Models for Safe Runtime Monitoring

We present a model-based approach to learning robust runtime monitors for autonomous systems. Runtime monitors play a crucial role in raising the level of assurance by observing system behavior and predicting potential safety violations. In our approach, we propose to capture a system's (stochastic) behavior using interval Hidden Markov Models (iHMMs). The monitor then uses this learned iHMM to derive risk estimates for potential safety violations. The paper makes three key contributions: (1) it provides a formalization of the problem of learning robust runtime monitors, (2) introduces a novel framework that uses conformance-testing-based refinement for learning robust iHMMs with convergence guarantees, and (3) presents an efficient monitoring algorithm for computing risk estimates over iHMMs. Our empirical results demonstrate the efficacy of monitors learned using our approach, particularly when compared to model-free monitoring approaches that rely solely on collected data without access to a system model.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2026

Incremental Fingerprinting in an Open World

Network protocol fingerprinting is used to identify a protocol implementation by analyzing its input-output behavior. Traditionally, fingerprinting operates under a closed-world assumption, where models of all implementations are assumed to be available. However, this assumption is unrealistic in practice. When this assumption does not hold, fingerprinting results in numerous misclassifications without indicating that a model for an implementation is missing. Therefore, we introduce an open-world variant of the fingerprinting problem, where not all models are known in advance. We propose an incremental fingerprinting approach to solve the problem by combining active automata learning with closed-world fingerprinting. Our approach quickly determines whether the implementation under consideration matches an available model using fingerprinting and conformance checking. If no match is found, it learns a new model by exploiting the structure of available models. We prove the correctness of our approach and improvements in asymptotic complexity compared to naive baselines. Moreover, experimental results on a variety of protocols demonstrate a significant reduction in misclassifications and interactions with these black-boxes.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

Constrained and Robust Policy Synthesis with Satisfiability-Modulo-Probabilistic-Model-Checking

The ability to compute reward-optimal policies for given and known finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) underpins a variety of applications across planning, controller synthesis, and verification. However, we often want policies (1) to be robust, i.e., they perform well on perturbations of the MDP and (2) to satisfy additional structural constraints regarding, e.g., their representation or implementation cost. Computing such robust and constrained policies is indeed computationally more challenging. This paper contributes the first approach to effectively compute robust policies subject to arbitrary structural constraints using a flexible and efficient framework. We achieve flexibility by allowing to express our constraints in a first-order theory over a set of MDPs, while the root for our efficiency lies in the tight integration of satisfiability solvers to handle the combinatorial nature of the problem and probabilistic model checking algorithms to handle the analysis of MDPs. Experiments on a few hundred benchmarks demonstrate the feasibility for constrained and robust policy synthesis and the competitiveness with state-of-the-art methods for various fragments of the problem.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Compositional Verification of Almost-Sure B\"uchi Objectives in MDPs

This paper studies the verification of almost-sure B\"uchi objectives in MDPs with a known, compositional structure based on string diagrams. In particular, we ask whether there is a strategy that ensures that a B\"uchi objective is almost-surely satisfied. We first show that proper exit sets -- the sets of exits that can be reached within a component without losing locally -- together with the reachability of a B\"uchi state are a sufficient and necessary statistic for the compositional verification of almost-sure B\"uchi objectives. The number of proper exit sets may grow exponentially in the number of exits. We define two algorithms: (1) A straightforward bottom-up algorithm that computes this statistic in a recursive manner to obtain the verification result of the entire string diagram and (2) a polynomial-time iterative algorithm which avoids computing all proper exit sets by performing iterative strategy refinement.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Efficient Probabilistic Model Checking for Relational Reachability (Extended Version)

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the nondeterminism such that the probability to reach an error state is above a threshold? We consider an understudied extension that relates different reachability probabilities, such as: Is there a scheduler such that two sets of states are reached with different probabilities? These questions appear naturally in the design of randomized algorithms and in various security applications. We provide a tractable algorithm for many variations of this problem, while proving computational hardness of some others. An implementation of our algorithm beats solvers for more general probabilistic hyperlogics by orders of magnitude, on the subset of their benchmarks that are within our fragment.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Robust Finite-Memory Policy Gradients for Hidden-Model POMDPs

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) model specific environments in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Critically, optimal policies for POMDPs may not be robust against perturbations in the environment. Hidden-model POMDPs (HM-POMDPs) capture sets of different environment models, that is, POMDPs with a shared action and observation space. The intuition is that the true model is hidden among a set of potential models, and it is unknown which model will be the environment at execution time. A policy is robust for a given HM-POMDP if it achieves sufficient performance for each of its POMDPs. We compute such robust policies by combining two orthogonal techniques: (1) a deductive formal verification technique that supports tractable robust policy evaluation by computing a worst-case POMDP within the HM-POMDP, and (2) subgradient ascent to optimize the candidate policy for a worst-case POMDP. The empirical evaluation shows that, compared to various baselines, our approach (1) produces policies that are more robust and generalize better to unseen POMDPs, and (2) scales to HM-POMDPs that consist of over a hundred thousand environments.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Learning Verified Monitors for Hidden Markov Models

Runtime monitors assess whether a system is in an unsafe state based on a stream of observations. We study the problem where the system is subject to probabilistic uncertainty and described by a hidden Markov model. A stream of observations is then unsafe if the probability of being in an unsafe state is above a threshold. A correct monitor recognizes the set of unsafe observations. The key contribution of this paper is the first correct-by-construction synthesis method for such monitors, represented as finite automata. The contribution combines four ingredients: First, we establish the coNP-hardness of checking whether an automaton is a correct monitor, i.e., a monitor without misclassifications. Second, we provide a reduction that reformulates the search for misclassifications into a standard probabilistic system synthesis problem. Third, we integrate the verification routine into an active automata learning routine to synthesize correct monitors. Fourth, we provide a prototypical implementation that shows the feasibility and limitations of the approach on a series of benchmarks.

cs.FL↗

arXiv2025

Generalized Parameter Lifting: Finer Abstractions for Parametric Markov Chains

Parametric Markov chains (pMCs) are Markov chains (MCs) with symbolic probabilities. A pMC encodes a family of MCs, where each member is obtained by replacing parameters with constants. The parameters allow encoding dependencies between transitions, which sets pMCs apart from interval MCs. The verification problem for pMCs asks whether each MC in the corresponding family satisfies a given temporal specification. The state-of-the-art approach for this problem is parameter lifting (PL) -- an abstraction-refinement loop that abstracts the pMC to a non-parametric model analyzed with standard probabilistic model checking techniques. This paper presents two key improvements to tackle the main limitations of PL. First, we introduce generalized parameter lifting (GPL) to lift various restrictive assumptions made by PL. Second, we present a big-step transformation algorithm that reduces parameter dependencies in pMCs and, therefore, results in tighter approximations. Experiments show that GPL is widely applicable and that the big-step transformation accelerates pMC verification by up to orders of magnitude.

cs.LO↗

arXiv2025

Tighter Value-Function Approximations for POMDPs

Solving partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) typically requires reasoning about the values of exponentially many state beliefs. Towards practical performance, state-of-the-art solvers use value bounds to guide this reasoning. However, sound upper value bounds are often computationally expensive to compute, and there is a tradeoff between the tightness of such bounds and their computational cost. This paper introduces new and provably tighter upper value bounds than the commonly used fast informed bound. Our empirical evaluation shows that, despite their additional computational overhead, the new upper bounds accelerate state-of-the-art POMDP solvers on a wide range of benchmarks.

cs.AI↗