arXiv subjects

Sebastian Towers

Publications and source records attributed to Sebastian Towers.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Modelling Opinion Dynamics at Scale with Deep MARL

Modelling opinion dynamics typically relies on hand-crafted local interaction rules to study emergent macroscopic phenomena such as consensus and polarisation. In contrast, multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) enables agents to learn such behaviours directly by optimising simple rewards. To explore the potential of MARL for opinion dynamics, we introduce a GPU-accelerated consensus and truth-finding game that scales to populations of up to 1000 agents, comparable to many real-world social sub-networks. To prevent unrealistic conventions, we extend other-play to general-sum social interactions. We next validate our model on a subset of the Bluesky network by recovering agent importance structures from graph topology alone via a learned attention layer, finding that highly conforming populations most closely match human data. In large social media networks such high levels of conformity significantly reduce collective accuracy and promote dishonest agents that lie to fit in. By contrast, small, dynamic hunter-gatherer networks are less affected; here, conformity can even improve collective agreement. This suggests a mismatch between evolved human conformity heuristics and modern social media environments as a potential contributor to misinformation.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2026

Recurrent Structural Policy Gradient for Partially Observable Mean Field Games

Mean Field Games (MFGs) provide a principled framework for modelling interactions in large population systems. However, algorithmic progress has been limited since model-free methods are high variance and exact methods scale poorly. Recent Hybrid Structural Methods (HSMs) reduce variance while maintaining tractability by leveraging low-dimensional individual state and action spaces and known transition dynamics to compute the exact expected return conditioned on Monte Carlo rollouts of common noise. However, HSMs have not been extended to partially observable settings. We propose Recurrent Structural Policy Gradient (RSPG), the first history-aware HSM for MFGs with public partial information. RSPG achieves an order-of-magnitude faster convergence than model-free RL methods while learning history-aware behaviour, unlike current HSMs. To facilitate research into MFGs, we also introduce MFAX, our JAX-based framework for MFGs that supports both analytic and sample-based mean-field updates. MFAX and usage examples can be found at https://clarisse-wibault.github.io/rspg/.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

A differentiable model of supply-chain shocks

Modelling how shocks propagate in supply chains is an increasingly important challenge in economics. Its relevance has been highlighted in recent years by events such as Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Agent-based models (ABMs) are a promising approach for this problem. However, calibrating them is hard. We show empirically that it is possible to achieve speed ups of over 3 orders of magnitude when calibrating ABMs of supply networks by running them on GPUs and using automatic differentiation, compared to non-differentiable baselines. This opens the door to scaling ABMs to model the whole global supply network.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

ADIOS: Antibody Development via Opponent Shaping

Anti-viral therapies are typically designed to target only the current strains of a virus, a myopic response. However, therapy-induced selective pressures drive the emergence of new viral strains, against which the original myopic therapies are no longer effective. This evolutionary response presents an opportunity: our therapies could both defend against and actively influence viral evolution. This motivates our method ADIOS: Antibody Development vIa Opponent Shaping. ADIOS is a meta-learning framework where the process of antibody therapy design, the outer loop, accounts for the virus's adaptive response, the inner loop. With ADIOS, antibodies are not only robust against potential future variants, they also influence, i.e., shape, which future variants emerge. In line with the opponent shaping literature, we refer to our optimised antibodies as shapers. To demonstrate the value of ADIOS, we build a viral evolution simulator using the Absolut! framework, in which shapers successfully target both current and future viral variants, outperforming myopic antibodies. Furthermore, we show that shapers modify the distribution over viral evolutionary trajectories to result in weaker variants. We believe that our ADIOS paradigm will facilitate the discovery of long-lived vaccines and antibody therapies while also generalising to other domains. Specifically, domains such as antimicrobial resistance, cancer treatment, and others with evolutionarily adaptive opponents. Our code is available at https://github.com/olakalisz/adios.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2024

Learning mirror maps in policy mirror descent

Policy Mirror Descent (PMD) is a popular framework in reinforcement learning, serving as a unifying perspective that encompasses numerous algorithms. These algorithms are derived through the selection of a mirror map and enjoy finite-time convergence guarantees. Despite its popularity, the exploration of PMD's full potential is limited, with the majority of research focusing on a particular mirror map -- namely, the negative entropy -- which gives rise to the renowned Natural Policy Gradient (NPG) method. It remains uncertain from existing theoretical studies whether the choice of mirror map significantly influences PMD's efficacy. In our work, we conduct empirical investigations to show that the conventional mirror map choice (NPG) often yields less-than-optimal outcomes across several standard benchmark environments. Using evolutionary strategies, we identify more efficient mirror maps that enhance the performance of PMD. We first focus on a tabular environment, i.e. Grid-World, where we relate existing theoretical bounds with the performance of PMD for a few standard mirror maps and the learned one. We then show that it is possible to learn a mirror map that outperforms the negative entropy in more complex environments, such as the MinAtar suite. Additionally, we demonstrate that the learned mirror maps generalize effectively to different tasks by testing each map across various other environments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Arbitrary Order Meta-Learning with Simple Population-Based Evolution

Meta-learning, the notion of learning to learn, enables learning systems to quickly and flexibly solve new tasks. This usually involves defining a set of outer-loop meta-parameters that are then used to update a set of inner-loop parameters. Most meta-learning approaches use complicated and computationally expensive bi-level optimisation schemes to update these meta-parameters. Ideally, systems should perform multiple orders of meta-learning, i.e. to learn to learn to learn and so on, to accelerate their own learning. Unfortunately, standard meta-learning techniques are often inappropriate for these higher-order meta-parameters because the meta-optimisation procedure becomes too complicated or unstable. Inspired by the higher-order meta-learning we observe in real-world evolution, we show that using simple population-based evolution implicitly optimises for arbitrarily-high order meta-parameters. First, we theoretically prove and empirically show that population-based evolution implicitly optimises meta-parameters of arbitrarily-high order in a simple setting. We then introduce a minimal self-referential parameterisation, which in principle enables arbitrary-order meta-learning. Finally, we show that higher-order meta-learning improves performance on time series forecasting tasks.

cs.LG↗