arXiv subjects

Sebastian Weichwald

Publications and source records attributed to Sebastian Weichwald.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Verifying formulas for interventional distributions

We formalize verification in causal graphical models: deciding whether a given observational formula identifies a target interventional distribution. This opens a problem complementary to identification, asking not whether any identifying formula exists, but whether the given formula is identifying. We show that even sound and complete solutions to identification do not solve verification. We propose a falsifier as a first practical route forward, prove that it induces an almost-surely correct verifier for regular exponential-family models, and use the resulting verifier to develop the gateway test, which finds all sets admissible for use in a front-door formula.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A Topological Sorting Criterion for Random Causal Directed Acyclic Graphs

Random directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) based on imposing an order on Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi and scale free random graphs are widely used for evaluating causal discovery algorithms. We show that in such DAGs, the set of nodes reachable via open paths, termed relatives, increases monotonically along the causal order. We assess the prevalence of this pattern numerically, and demonstrate that it can be exploited for causal order recovery via sorting by the estimated number of relatives. We note that many simulations in the literature feature settings where this yields an excellent proxy for the causal order, and show that a strict increase of relatives along the causal order leads to a singular Markov equivalence class. We propose sampling time-series DAGs as a possible alternative and discuss implications for causal discovery algorithms and their evaluation on synthetic data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Causal Foundations of Collective Agency

A key challenge for the safety of advanced AI systems is the possibility that multiple simpler agents might inadvertently form a collective agent with capabilities and goals distinct from those of any individual. More generally, determining when a group of agents can be viewed as a unified collective agent is a foundational question in the study of interactions and incentives in both biological and artificial systems. We adopt a behavioral perspective in answering this question, ascribing collective agency to a group when viewing the group's joint actions as rational and goal-directed successfully predicts its behavior. We formalize this perspective on collective agency using causal games -- which are causal models of strategic, multi-agent interactions -- and causal abstraction -- which formalizes when a simple, high-level model faithfully captures a more complex, low-level model. We use this framework to solve a puzzle regarding multi-agent incentives in actor-critic models and to make quantitative assessments of the degree of collective agency exhibited by different voting mechanisms. Our framework aims to provide a foundation for theoretical and empirical work to understand, predict, and control emergent collective agents in multi-agent AI systems.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Identifying Causal Effects Using a Single Proxy Variable

Unobserved confounding is a key challenge when estimating causal effects from a treatment on an outcome in scientific applications. In this work, we assume that we observe a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and that we know the mechanism that generates the proxy from the confounder. Under a completeness assumption on this mechanism, which we call Single Proxy Identifiability of Causal Effects or simply SPICE, we prove that causal effects are identifiable. We extend the proxy-based causal identifiability results by Kuroki and Pearl (2014); Pearl (2010) to higher dimensions, more flexible functional relationships and a broader class of distributions. Further, we develop a neural network based estimation framework, SPICE-Net, to estimate causal effects, which is applicable to both discrete and continuous treatments.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Embracing Discrete Search: A Reasonable Approach to Causal Structure Learning

We present FLOP (Fast Learning of Order and Parents), a score-based causal discovery algorithm for linear models. It pairs fast parent selection with iterative Cholesky-based score updates, cutting run-times over prior algorithms. This makes it feasible to fully embrace discrete search, enabling iterated local search with principled order initialization to find graphs with scores at or close to the global optimum. The resulting structures are highly accurate across benchmarks, with near-perfect recovery in standard settings. This performance calls for revisiting discrete search over graphs as a reasonable approach to causal discovery.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Linear-Time Primitives for Algorithm Development in Graphical Causal Inference

We introduce CIfly, a framework for efficient algorithmic primitives in graphical causal inference that isolates reachability as a reusable core operation. It builds on the insight that many causal reasoning tasks can be reduced to reachability in purpose-built state-space graphs that can be constructed on the fly during traversal. We formalize a rule table schema for specifying such algorithms and prove they run in linear time. We establish CIfly as a more efficient alternative to the common primitives moralization and latent projection, which we show are computationally equivalent to Boolean matrix multiplication. Our open-source Rust implementation parses rule table text files and runs the specified CIfly algorithms providing high-performance execution accessible from Python and R. We demonstrate CIfly's utility by re-implementing a range of established causal inference tasks within the framework and by developing new algorithms for instrumental variables. These contributions position CIfly as a flexible and scalable backbone for graphical causal inference, guiding algorithm development and enabling easy and efficient deployment.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

The Case for Time in Causal DAGs

We make the case for incorporating a notion of time into causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We demonstrate that nontemporal causal DAGs are ambiguous and obstruct justification of the acyclicity assumption. Assuming that causes precede effects, causal relationships are relative to the time order, and causal DAGs require temporal qualification. We propose a formalization via composite causal variables that refer to quantities at one or multiple time points. We emphasize that the acyclicity assumption requires different justifications depending on whether the time order allows cycles. We conclude by discussing implications for the interpretation and applicability of DAGs as causal models.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

What is causal about causal models and representations?

Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which interventions in the model. For example, to interpret an action as an intervention on a treatment variable, the action will presumably have to a) change the distribution of treatment in a way that corresponds to the intervention, and b) not change other aspects, such as how the outcome depends on the treatment; while the marginal distributions of some variables may change as an effect. We introduce a formal framework to make such requirements for different interpretations of actions as interventions precise. We prove that the seemingly natural interpretation of actions as interventions is circular: Under this interpretation, every causal Bayesian network that correctly models the observational distribution is trivially also interventionally valid, and no action yields empirical data that could possibly falsify such a model. We prove an impossibility result: No interpretation exists that is non-circular and simultaneously satisfies a set of natural desiderata. Instead, we examine non-circular interpretations that may violate some desiderata and show how this may in turn enable the falsification of causal models. By rigorously examining how a causal Bayesian network could be a 'causal' model of the world instead of merely a mathematical object, our formal framework contributes to the conceptual foundations of causal representation learning, causal discovery, and causal abstraction, while also highlighting some limitations of existing approaches.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

All or None: Identifiable Linear Properties of Next-token Predictors in Language Modeling

We analyze identifiability as a possible explanation for the ubiquity of linear properties across language models, such as the vector difference between the representations of "easy" and "easiest" being parallel to that between "lucky" and "luckiest". For this, we ask whether finding a linear property in one model implies that any model that induces the same distribution has that property, too. To answer that, we first prove an identifiability result to characterize distribution-equivalent next-token predictors, lifting a diversity requirement of previous results. Second, based on a refinement of relational linearity [Paccanaro and Hinton, 2001; Hernandez et al., 2024], we show how many notions of linearity are amenable to our analysis. Finally, we show that under suitable conditions, these linear properties either hold in all or none distribution-equivalent next-token predictors.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

Adjustment Identification Distance: A gadjid for Causal Structure Learning

Evaluating graphs learned by causal discovery algorithms is difficult: The number of edges that differ between two graphs does not reflect how the graphs differ with respect to the identifying formulas they suggest for causal effects. We introduce a framework for developing causal distances between graphs which includes the structural intervention distance for directed acyclic graphs as a special case. We use this framework to develop improved adjustment-based distances as well as extensions to completed partially directed acyclic graphs and causal orders. We develop new reachability algorithms to compute the distances efficiently and to prove their low polynomial time complexity. In our package gadjid (open source at https://github.com/CausalDisco/gadjid), we provide implementations of our distances; they are orders of magnitude faster with proven lower time complexity than the structural intervention distance and thereby provide a success metric for causal discovery that scales to graph sizes that were previously prohibitive.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Unfair Utilities and First Steps Towards Improving Them

Many fairness criteria constrain the policy or choice of predictors, which can have unwanted consequences, in particular, when optimizing the policy under such constraints. Here, we advocate to instead focus on the utility function the policy is optimizing for. We define value of information fairness and propose to not use utility functions that violate this criterion. This principle suggests to modify these utility functions such that they satisfy value of information fairness. We describe how this can be done and discuss consequences for the corresponding optimal policies. We apply our framework to thought experiments and the COMPAS data. Focussing on the utility function provides better answers than existing fairness notions: We are not aware of any intuitively fair policy that is disallowed by value of information fairness, and when we find that value of information fairness recommends an intuitively unfair policy, no existing fairness notion finds an intuitively fair policy.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

A Scale-Invariant Sorting Criterion to Find a Causal Order in Additive Noise Models

Additive Noise Models (ANMs) are a common model class for causal discovery from observational data and are often used to generate synthetic data for causal discovery benchmarking. Specifying an ANM requires choosing all parameters, including those not fixed by explicit assumptions. Reisach et al. (2021) show that sorting variables by increasing variance often yields an ordering close to a causal order and introduce var-sortability to quantify this alignment. Since increasing variances may be unrealistic and are scale-dependent, ANM data are often standardized in benchmarks. We show that synthetic ANM data are characterized by another pattern that is scale-invariant: the explainable fraction of a variable's variance, as captured by the coefficient of determination $R^2$, tends to increase along the causal order. The result is high $R^2$-sortability, meaning that sorting the variables by increasing $R^2$ yields an ordering close to a causal order. We propose an efficient baseline algorithm termed $R^2$-SortnRegress that exploits high $R^2$-sortability and that can match and exceed the performance of established causal discovery algorithms. We show analytically that sufficiently high edge weights lead to a relative decrease of the noise contributions along causal chains, resulting in increasingly deterministic relationships and high $R^2$. We characterize $R^2$-sortability for different simulation parameters and find high values in common settings. Our findings reveal high $R^2$-sortability as an assumption about the data generating process relevant to causal discovery and implicit in many ANM sampling schemes. It should be made explicit, as its prevalence in real-world data is unknown. For causal discovery benchmarking, we implement $R^2$-sortability, the $R^2$-SortnRegress algorithm, and ANM simulation procedures in our library CausalDisco at https://causaldisco.github.io/CausalDisco/.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2022

Identifying Causal Effects using Instrumental Time Series: Nuisance IV and Correcting for the Past

Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct applications of i.i.d. techniques are generally inconsistent as they do not correctly adjust for dependencies in the past. In this paper, we outline the difficulties that arise due to time structure and propose methodology for constructing identifying equations that can be used for consistent parametric estimation of causal effects in time series data. One method uses extra nuisance covariates to obtain identifiability (an idea that can be of interest even in the i.i.d. case). We further propose a graph marginalization framework that allows us to apply nuisance IV and other IV methods in a principled way to time series. Our methods make use of a version of the global Markov property, which we prove holds for VAR(p) processes. For VAR(1) processes, we prove identifiability conditions that relate to Jordan forms and are different from the well-known rank conditions in the i.i.d. case (they do not require as many instruments as covariates, for example). We provide methods, prove their consistency, and show how the inferred causal effect can be used for distribution generalization. Simulation experiments corroborate our theoretical results. We provide ready-to-use Python code.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Learning by Doing: Controlling a Dynamical System using Causality, Control, and Reinforcement Learning

Questions in causality, control, and reinforcement learning go beyond the classical machine learning task of prediction under i.i.d. observations. Instead, these fields consider the problem of learning how to actively perturb a system to achieve a certain effect on a response variable. Arguably, they have complementary views on the problem: In control, one usually aims to first identify the system by excitation strategies to then apply model-based design techniques to control the system. In (non-model-based) reinforcement learning, one directly optimizes a reward. In causality, one focus is on identifiability of causal structure. We believe that combining the different views might create synergies and this competition is meant as a first step toward such synergies. The participants had access to observational and (offline) interventional data generated by dynamical systems. Track CHEM considers an open-loop problem in which a single impulse at the beginning of the dynamics can be set, while Track ROBO considers a closed-loop problem in which control variables can be set at each time step. The goal in both tracks is to infer controls that drive the system to a desired state. Code is open-sourced ( https://github.com/LearningByDoingCompetition/learningbydoing-comp ) to reproduce the winning solutions of the competition and to facilitate trying out new methods on the competition tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Beware of the Simulated DAG! Causal Discovery Benchmarks May Be Easy To Game

Simulated DAG models may exhibit properties that, perhaps inadvertently, render their structure identifiable and unexpectedly affect structure learning algorithms. Here, we show that marginal variance tends to increase along the causal order for generically sampled additive noise models. We introduce varsortability as a measure of the agreement between the order of increasing marginal variance and the causal order. For commonly sampled graphs and model parameters, we show that the remarkable performance of some continuous structure learning algorithms can be explained by high varsortability and matched by a simple baseline method. Yet, this performance may not transfer to real-world data where varsortability may be moderate or dependent on the choice of measurement scales. On standardized data, the same algorithms fail to identify the ground-truth DAG or its Markov equivalence class. While standardization removes the pattern in marginal variance, we show that data generating processes that incur high varsortability also leave a distinct covariance pattern that may be exploited even after standardization. Our findings challenge the significance of generic benchmarks with independently drawn parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/Scriddie/Varsortability.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Compositional Abstraction Error and a Category of Causal Models

Interventional causal models describe several joint distributions over some variables used to describe a system, one for each intervention setting. They provide a formal recipe for how to move between the different joint distributions and make predictions about the variables upon intervening on the system. Yet, it is difficult to formalise how we may change the underlying variables used to describe the system, say moving from fine-grained to coarse-grained variables. Here, we argue that compositionality is a desideratum for such model transformations and the associated errors: When abstracting a reference model M iteratively, first obtaining M' and then further simplifying that to obtain M'', we expect the composite transformation from M to M'' to exist and its error to be bounded by the errors incurred by each individual transformation step. Category theory, the study of mathematical objects via compositional transformations between them, offers a natural language to develop our framework for model transformations and abstractions. We introduce a category of finite interventional causal models and, leveraging theory of enriched categories, prove the desired compositionality properties for our framework.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Causal structure learning from time series: Large regression coefficients may predict causal links better in practice than small p-values

In this article, we describe the algorithms for causal structure learning from time series data that won the Causality 4 Climate competition at the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2019 (NeurIPS). We examine how our combination of established ideas achieves competitive performance on semi-realistic and realistic time series data exhibiting common challenges in real-world Earth sciences data. In particular, we discuss a) a rationale for leveraging linear methods to identify causal links in non-linear systems, b) a simulation-backed explanation as to why large regression coefficients may predict causal links better in practice than small p-values and thus why normalising the data may sometimes hinder causal structure learning. For benchmark usage, we detail the algorithms here and provide implementations at https://github.com/sweichwald/tidybench . We propose the presented competition-proven methods for baseline benchmark comparisons to guide the development of novel algorithms for structure learning from time series.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Causality in cognitive neuroscience: concepts, challenges, and distributional robustness

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal activity. In this review and perspective article, we introduce the concept of causality in the context of cognitive neuroscience and review existing methods for inferring causal relationships from data. Causal inference is an ambitious task that is particularly challenging in cognitive neuroscience. We discuss two difficulties in more detail: the scarcity of interventional data and the challenge of finding the right variables. We argue for distributional robustness as a guiding principle to tackle these problems. Robustness (or invariance) is a fundamental principle underlying causal methodology. A causal model of a target variable generalises across environments or subjects as long as these environments leave the causal mechanisms intact. Consequently, if a candidate model does not generalise, then either it does not consist of the target variable's causes or the underlying variables do not represent the correct granularity of the problem. In this sense, assessing generalisability may be useful when defining relevant variables and can be used to partially compensate for the lack of interventional data.

q-bio.NC↗