arXiv subjects

Sepehr Ilami

Publications and source records attributed to Sepehr Ilami.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

When Networks Substitute for Outcome Surveillance? A Substitution-Complementarity Framework for Behavioral Signals in Predictive Monitoring

Monitoring systems increasingly fuse dynamic behavioral data with outcome-based surveillance, raising a basic question: when does behavioral data carry predictive information that outcome history lacks? We study this using epidemic forecasting on mobility networks, asking whether mobility networks provide independent predictive signal beyond local outcome-based surveillance. We formalize this as a substitution-complementarity problem over directed, weighted mobility networks. Using a Frisch-Waugh-Lovell variance decomposition, our analytical framework derives domain-agnostic conditions under which network-topology features retain incremental explanatory power beyond autoregressive outcome histories. We instantiate the framework using town-level COVID-19 forecasting in Massachusetts (April 2020-April 2021), constructing mobility networks among 300+ towns from smartphone-derived origin-destination aggregates to extract centrality metrics. An agent-based model on synthetic networks confirms that the regime boundary arises from a generic interaction between macro-scale epidemic state and network topology, rather than dataset-specific artifacts. Prevalence-gated interactions between statewide incidence and network features yield large out-of-sample gains when primary surveillance is degraded (Predict-R2 increases from about 0.60 to 0.83-0.89) but only marginal lift when granular local histories are available (+0.5 percentage points). Gains concentrate during epidemic waves when behavioral responses shift network connectivity rapidly. Framed as a value-of-information problem, the substitution gain reflects the marginal value of behavioral data relative to primary-channel quality. This yields a transferable, cost-aware design rule: integrate topology-aware behavioral signals when primary surveillance is degraded or the network changes rapidly; otherwise, rely on autoregressive baselines.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Networked risk perception and behavioral bubbles: the case of a pandemic

Risk perception is typically modeled as an individual cognitive readout of objective hazard, yet during crises what people judge as risky is shaped by what their peers do. Using weekly mobility data from 313 Massachusetts municipalities over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and a pre-pandemic inter-town mobility network that fixes interaction structure before the shock, we estimate two-way fixed-effects panel regressions that separate local case response, inter-town behavioral spillover along the mobility network, and within-town inertia; the pre-shock network and a lagged peer signal address the standard reflection and endogenous-group concerns. Three findings emerge. First, inter-town behavioral spillovers are substantial and localize almost entirely within mobility-defined communities, with effectively no propagation across community boundaries, the empirical referent of behavioral bubbles. Second, the within-community spillover carries behavioral content beyond peer-town case information: when network-exposure-to-cases and network-exposure-to-behavior are raced, the behavioral channel survives and the case-exposure channel goes null. Third, a joint mobility-by-demographic decomposition shows the spillover requires both routine connection and demographic similarity. It concentrates where towns are connected and similar, and vanishes between similar towns that are not connected, ruling out a shared-conditions confound and pointing to an observational and normative channel rather than a purely informational one. These results recast risk perception as a networked phenomenon and identify mobility-defined communities, rather than administrative units, as the operative scale of behavioral response. The pattern should generalize wherever exposure is uncertain, evolving, and socially negotiated, including climate adaptation and financial contagion.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

The Architecture of Illusion: Network Opacity and Strategic Escalation

Standard models of bounded rationality typically assume agents either possess accurate knowledge of the population's reasoning abilities (Cognitive Hierarchy) or hold dogmatic, degenerate beliefs (Level-$k$). We introduce the ``Connected Minds'' model, which unifies these frameworks by integrating iterative reasoning with a parameterized network bias. We posit that agents do not observe the global population; rather, they observe a sample biased by their network position, governed by a locality parameter $p$ representing algorithmic ranking, social homophily, or information disclosure. We show that this parameter acts as a continuous bridge: the model collapses to the myopic Level-$k$ recursion as networks become opaque ($p \to 0$) and recovers the standard Cognitive Hierarchy model under full transparency ($p=1$). Theoretically, we establish that network opacity induces a \emph{Sophisticated Bias}, causing agents to systematically overestimate the cognitive depth of their opponents while preserving the log-concavity of belief distributions. This makes $p$ an actionable lever: a planner or platform can tune transparency, globally or by segment (a personalized $p_k$), to shape equilibrium behavior. From a mechanism design perspective, we derive the \emph{Escalation Principle}: in games of strategic complements, restricting information can maximize aggregate effort by trapping agents in echo chambers where they compete against hallucinated, high-sophistication peers. Conversely, we identify a \emph{Transparency Reversal} for coordination games, where maximizing network visibility is required to minimize variance and stabilize outcomes. Our results suggest that network topology functions as a cognitive zoom lens, determining whether agents behave as local imitators or global optimizers.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2025

Integrated Design and Governance of Agentic AI Systems through Adaptive Information Modulation

Modern engineered systems increasingly involve complex sociotechnical environments where multiple agents, including humans and the emerging paradigm of agentic AI powered by large language models, must navigate social dilemmas that pit individual interests against collective welfare. As engineered systems evolve toward multi-agent architectures with autonomous LLM-based agents, traditional governance approaches using static rules or fixed network structures fail to address the dynamic uncertainties inherent in real-world operations. This paper presents a novel framework that integrates adaptive governance mechanisms directly into the design of sociotechnical systems through a unique separation of agent interaction networks from information flow networks. We introduce a system comprising strategic LLM-based system agents that engage in repeated interactions and a reinforcement learning-based governing agent that dynamically modulates information transparency. Unlike conventional approaches that require direct structural interventions or payoff modifications, our framework preserves agent autonomy while promoting cooperation through adaptive information governance. The governing agent learns to strategically adjust information disclosure at each timestep, determining what contextual or historical information each system agent can access. Experimental results demonstrate that this RL-based governance significantly enhances cooperation compared to static information-sharing baselines.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

Large Model Strategic Thinking, Small Model Efficiency: Transferring Theory of Mind in Large Language Models

As the performance of larger, newer Large Language Models continues to improve for strategic Theory of Mind (ToM) tasks, the demand for these state-of-the-art models increases commensurately. However, their deployment is costly both in terms of processing power and time. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of creating smaller, highly-performing specialized algorithms by way of fine-tuning. To do this, we first present a large pre-trained model with 20 unique scenarios that combine different social contexts with games of varying social dilemmas, record its answers, and use them for Q&A fine-tuning on a smaller model of the same family. Our focus is on in-context game-theoretic decision-making, the same domain within which human interaction occurs and that requires both a theory of mind (or a semblance thereof) and an understanding of social dynamics. The smaller model is therefore trained not just on the answers provided, but also on the motivations provided by the larger model, which should contain advice and guidelines to navigate both strategic dilemmas and social cues. We find that the fine-tuned smaller language model consistently bridged the gap in performance between the smaller pre-trained version of the model and its larger relative and that its improvements extended in areas and contexts beyond the ones provided in the training examples, including on out-of-sample scenarios that include completely different game structures. On average for all games, through fine-tuning, the smaller model showed a 46% improvement measured as alignment towards the behavior of the larger model, with 100% representing indistinguishable behavior. When presented with out-of-sample social contexts and games, the fine-tuned model still displays remarkable levels of alignment, reaching an improvement of 18% and 28% respectively.

cs.CL↗