arXiv subjects

Sergei Vassilvitskii

Publications and source records attributed to Sergei Vassilvitskii.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Phantoms and Disclosures: A Statistical Framework for Auditing Privacy in Synthetic Data

The rapid adoption of generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) has spurred interest in synthetic data as a privacy-preserving alternative to sensitive real-world datasets. However, generating high-utility synthetic data often carries the risk of memorizing and regurgitating private information from the training corpus. In this work, we present a customizable empirical auditing framework designed to detect and explain such data disclosures. Our framework introduces a mechanism to distinguish between "true disclosures"-where the system directly reproduces a user's information-and "phantom disclosures''-where the system incidentally generates a user's data. By partitioning input data into training and holdout sets and applying rigorous statistical hypothesis testing, we determine if observed disclosures are consistent with strict privacy baselines, such as zero-learning or specific Differential Privacy (DP) bounds. Crucially, this approach requires no model access, no canary insertion, and no reference model training -only the synthetic output and a held-out control set. We demonstrate that this framework effectively functions as a membership inference attack, providing empirical lower bounds on privacy leakage that are tighter than prior data-based auditing methods. Our approach is model-agnostic, applies to any synthetic data generation mechanism, and requires orders of magnitude fewer computational resources than shadow-model or canary-based alternatives.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

How to DP-fy Your Data: A Practical Guide to Generating Synthetic Data With Differential Privacy

High quality data is needed to unlock the full potential of AI for end users. However finding new sources of such data is getting harder: most publicly-available human generated data will soon have been used. Additionally, publicly available data often is not representative of users of a particular system -- for example, a research speech dataset of contractors interacting with an AI assistant will likely be more homogeneous, well articulated and self-censored than real world commands that end users will issue. Therefore unlocking high-quality data grounded in real user interactions is of vital interest. However, the direct use of user data comes with significant privacy risks. Differential Privacy (DP) is a well established framework for reasoning about and limiting information leakage, and is a gold standard for protecting user privacy. The focus of this work, \emph{Differentially Private Synthetic data}, refers to synthetic data that preserves the overall trends of source data,, while providing strong privacy guarantees to individuals that contributed to the source dataset. DP synthetic data can unlock the value of datasets that have previously been inaccessible due to privacy concerns and can replace the use of sensitive datasets that previously have only had rudimentary protections like ad-hoc rule-based anonymization. In this paper we explore the full suite of techniques surrounding DP synthetic data, the types of privacy protections they offer and the state-of-the-art for various modalities (image, tabular, text and decentralized). We outline all the components needed in a system that generates DP synthetic data, from sensitive data handling and preparation, to tracking the use and empirical privacy testing. We hope that work will result in increased adoption of DP synthetic data, spur additional research and increase trust in DP synthetic data approaches.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Revenue Variance Minimization: Beyond First Price Auctions

We study revenue variance in the sale of $k$ homogeneous items to risk-neutral, unit-demand bidders with independent private values. Although the Revenue Equivalence Theorem implies that standard auctions generate the same expected revenue, the distribution of revenue differs across mechanisms. Prior work shows that, in single-item environments with ex-post individual rationality (IR), the first-price auction minimizes revenue variance. We show that this result is fragile. Under interim IR, the optimality of the first-price auction breaks down in asymmetric single-item settings, and we characterize the variance-minimizing mechanisms for any implementable allocation rule in this environment. In multi-item symmetric regular environments with interim IR, we construct a mechanism that implements the efficient allocation and guarantees constant revenue while maintaining non-negative payments. Under ex-post IR, we show that revenue variance can be reduced relative to winner-pays-bid formats by introducing negative correlations in payments. Nevertheless, we show that the variance ranking between the winner-pays-bid auction and the uniform $(k+1)$-st price auction is maintained in multi-unit settings.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2026

AI-rithmetic

Modern AI systems have been successfully deployed to win medals at international math competitions, assist with research workflows, and prove novel technical lemmas. However, despite their progress at advanced levels of mathematics, they remain stubbornly bad at basic arithmetic, consistently failing on the simple task of adding two numbers. We present a systematic investigation of this phenomenon. We demonstrate empirically that all frontier models suffer significantly degraded accuracy for integer addition as the number of digits increases. Furthermore, we show that most errors made by these models are highly interpretable and can be attributed to either operand misalignment or a failure to correctly carry; these two error classes explain 87.9%, 62.9%, and 92.4% of Claude Opus 4.1, GPT-5, and Gemini 2.5 Pro errors, respectively. Finally, we show that misalignment errors are frequently related to tokenization, and that carrying errors appear largely as independent random failures.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Learning from Synthetic Data: Limitations of ERM

The prevalence and low cost of LLMs have led to a rise of synthetic content. From review sites to court documents, "natural" content has been contaminated by data points that appear similar to natural data, but are in fact LLM-generated. In this work we revisit fundamental learning theory questions in this, now ubiquitous, setting. We model this scenario as a sequence of learning tasks where the input is a mix of natural and synthetic data, and the learning algorithms are oblivious to the origin of any individual example. We study the possibilities and limitations of ERM in this setting. For the problem of estimating the mean of an arbitrary $d$-dimensional distribution, we find that while ERM converges to the true mean, it is outperformed by an algorithm that assigns non-uniform weights to examples from different generations of data. For the PAC learning setting, the disparity is even more stark. We find that ERM does not always converge to the true concept, echoing the model collapse literature. However, we show there are algorithms capable of learning the correct hypothesis for arbitrary VC classes and arbitrary amounts of contamination.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Scaling Laws for Downstream Task Performance of Large Language Models

Scaling laws provide important insights that can guide the design of large language models (LLMs). Existing work has primarily focused on studying scaling laws for pretraining (upstream) loss. However, in transfer learning settings, in which LLMs are pretrained on an unsupervised dataset and then finetuned on a downstream task, we often also care about the downstream performance. In this work, we study the scaling behavior in a transfer learning setting, where LLMs are finetuned for machine translation tasks. Specifically, we investigate how the choice of the pretraining data and its size affect downstream performance (translation quality) as judged by: downstream cross-entropy and translation quality metrics such as BLEU and COMET scores. Our experiments indicate that the size of the finetuning dataset and the distribution alignment between the pretraining and downstream data significantly influence the scaling behavior. With sufficient alignment, both downstream cross-entropy and translation quality scores improve monotonically with more pretraining data. In such cases, we show that it is possible to predict the downstream translation quality metrics with good accuracy using a log-law. However, there are cases where moderate misalignment causes the downstream translation scores to fluctuate or get worse with more pretraining, whereas downstream cross-entropy monotonically improves. By analyzing these, we provide new practical insights for choosing appropriate pretraining data.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Escaping Collapse: The Strength of Weak Data for Large Language Model Training

Synthetically-generated data plays an increasingly larger role in training large language models. However, while synthetic data has been found to be useful, studies have also shown that without proper curation it can cause LLM performance to plateau, or even "collapse", after many training iterations. In this paper, we formalize this question and develop a theoretical framework to investigate how much curation is needed in order to ensure that LLM performance continually improves. Our analysis is inspired by boosting, a classic machine learning technique that leverages a very weak learning algorithm to produce an arbitrarily good classifier. The approach we analyze subsumes many recently proposed methods for training LLMs on synthetic data, and thus our analysis sheds light on why they are successful, and also suggests opportunities for future improvement. We present experiments that validate our theory, and show that dynamically focusing labeling resources on the most challenging examples -- in much the same way that boosting focuses the efforts of the weak learner -- leads to improved performance.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Differentially Private Synthetic Data Release for Topics API Outputs

The analysis of the privacy properties of Privacy-Preserving Ads APIs is an area of research that has received strong interest from academics, industry, and regulators. Despite this interest, the empirical study of these methods is hindered by the lack of publicly available data. Reliable empirical analysis of the privacy properties of an API, in fact, requires access to a dataset consisting of realistic API outputs; however, privacy concerns prevent the general release of such data to the public. In this work, we develop a novel methodology to construct synthetic API outputs that are simultaneously realistic enough to enable accurate study and provide strong privacy protections. We focus on one Privacy-Preserving Ads APIs: the Topics API, part of Google Chrome's Privacy Sandbox. We developed a methodology to generate a differentially-private dataset that closely matches the re-identification risk properties of the real Topics API data. The use of differential privacy provides strong theoretical bounds on the leakage of private user information from this release. Our methodology is based on first computing a large number of differentially-private statistics describing how output API traces evolve over time. Then, we design a parameterized distribution over sequences of API traces and optimize its parameters so that they closely match the statistics obtained. Finally, we create the synthetic data by drawing from this distribution. Our work is complemented by an open-source release of the anonymized dataset obtained by this methodology. We hope this will enable external researchers to analyze the API in-depth and replicate prior and future work on a realistic large-scale dataset. We believe that this work will contribute to fostering transparency regarding the privacy properties of Privacy-Preserving Ads APIs.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2025

An Optimization Framework for Differentially Private Sparse Fine-Tuning

Differentially private stochastic gradient descent (DP-SGD) is broadly considered to be the gold standard for training and fine-tuning neural networks under differential privacy (DP). With the increasing availability of high-quality pre-trained model checkpoints (e.g., vision and language models), fine-tuning has become a popular strategy. However, despite recent progress in understanding and applying DP-SGD for private transfer learning tasks, significant challenges remain -- most notably, the performance gap between models fine-tuned with DP-SGD and their non-private counterparts. Sparse fine-tuning on private data has emerged as an alternative to full-model fine-tuning; recent work has shown that privately fine-tuning only a small subset of model weights and keeping the rest of the weights fixed can lead to better performance. In this work, we propose a new approach for sparse fine-tuning of neural networks under DP. Existing work on private sparse finetuning often used fixed choice of trainable weights (e.g., updating only the last layer), or relied on public model's weights to choose the subset of weights to modify. Such choice of weights remains suboptimal. In contrast, we explore an optimization-based approach, where our selection method makes use of the private gradient information, while using off the shelf privacy accounting techniques. Our numerical experiments on several computer vision models and datasets show that our selection method leads to better prediction accuracy, compared to full-model private fine-tuning or existing private sparse fine-tuning approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Data-Driven Solution Portfolios

In this paper, we consider a new problem of portfolio optimization using stochastic information. In a setting where there is some uncertainty, we ask how to best select $k$ potential solutions, with the goal of optimizing the value of the best solution. More formally, given a combinatorial problem $Π$, a set of value functions $V$ over the solutions of $Π$, and a distribution $D$ over $V$, our goal is to select $k$ solutions of $Π$ that maximize or minimize the expected value of the {\em best} of those solutions. For a simple example, consider the classic knapsack problem: given a universe of elements each with unit weight and a positive value, the task is to select $r$ elements maximizing the total value. Now suppose that each element's weight comes from a (known) distribution. How should we select $k$ different solutions so that one of them is likely to yield a high value? In this work, we tackle this basic problem, and generalize it to the setting where the underlying set system forms a matroid. On the technical side, it is clear that the candidate solutions we select must be diverse and anti-correlated; however, it is not clear how to do so efficiently. Our main result is a polynomial-time algorithm that constructs a portfolio within a constant factor of the optimal.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Binary Search with Distributional Predictions

Algorithms with (machine-learned) predictions is a powerful framework for combining traditional worst-case algorithms with modern machine learning. However, the vast majority of work in this space assumes that the prediction itself is non-probabilistic, even if it is generated by some stochastic process (such as a machine learning system). This is a poor fit for modern ML, particularly modern neural networks, which naturally generate a distribution. We initiate the study of algorithms with distributional predictions, where the prediction itself is a distribution. We focus on one of the simplest yet fundamental settings: binary search (or searching a sorted array). This setting has one of the simplest algorithms with a point prediction, but what happens if the prediction is a distribution? We show that this is a richer setting: there are simple distributions where using the classical prediction-based algorithm with any single prediction does poorly. Motivated by this, as our main result, we give an algorithm with query complexity $O(H(p) + \log η)$, where $H(p)$ is the entropy of the true distribution $p$ and $η$ is the earth mover's distance between $p$ and the predicted distribution $\hat p$. This also yields the first distributionally-robust algorithm for the classical problem of computing an optimal binary search tree given a distribution over target keys. We complement this with a lower bound showing that this query complexity is essentially optimal (up to constants), and experiments validating the practical usefulness of our algorithm.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Private prediction for large-scale synthetic text generation

We present an approach for generating differentially private synthetic text using large language models (LLMs), via private prediction. In the private prediction framework, we only require the output synthetic data to satisfy differential privacy guarantees. This is in contrast to approaches that train a generative model on potentially sensitive user-supplied source data and seek to ensure the model itself is safe to release. We prompt a pretrained LLM with source data, but ensure that next-token predictions are made with differential privacy guarantees. Previous work in this paradigm reported generating a small number of examples (<10) at reasonable privacy levels, an amount of data that is useful only for downstream in-context learning or prompting. In contrast, we make changes that allow us to generate thousands of high-quality synthetic data points, greatly expanding the set of potential applications. Our improvements come from an improved privacy analysis and a better private selection mechanism, which makes use of the equivalence between the softmax layer for sampling tokens in LLMs and the exponential mechanism. Furthermore, we introduce a novel use of public predictions via the sparse vector technique, in which we do not pay privacy costs for tokens that are predictable without sensitive data; we find this to be particularly effective for structured data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Practical Considerations for Differential Privacy

Differential privacy is the gold standard for statistical data release. Used by governments, companies, and academics, its mathematically rigorous guarantees and worst-case assumptions on the strength and knowledge of attackers make it a robust and compelling framework for reasoning about privacy. However, even with landmark successes, differential privacy has not achieved widespread adoption in everyday data use and data protection. In this work we examine some of the practical obstacles that stand in the way.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2024

Warm-starting Push-Relabel

Push-Relabel is one of the most celebrated network flow algorithms. Maintaining a pre-flow that saturates a cut, it enjoys better theoretical and empirical running time than other flow algorithms, such as Ford-Fulkerson. In practice, Push-Relabel is even faster than what theoretical guarantees can promise, in part because of the use of good heuristics for seeding and updating the iterative algorithm. However, it remains unclear how to run Push-Relabel on an arbitrary initialization that is not necessarily a pre-flow or cut-saturating. We provide the first theoretical guarantees for warm-starting Push-Relabel with a predicted flow, where our learning-augmented version benefits from fast running time when the predicted flow is close to an optimal flow, while maintaining robust worst-case guarantees. Interestingly, our algorithm uses the gap relabeling heuristic, which has long been employed in practice, even though prior to our work there was no rigorous theoretical justification for why it can lead to run-time improvements. We then provide experiments that show our warm-started Push-Relabel also works well in practice.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Almost Tight Bounds for Differentially Private Densest Subgraph

We study the Densest Subgraph (DSG) problem under the additional constraint of differential privacy. DSG is a fundamental theoretical question which plays a central role in graph analytics, and so privacy is a natural requirement. All known private algorithms for Densest Subgraph lose constant multiplicative factors, despite the existence of non-private exact algorithms. We show that, perhaps surprisingly, this loss is not necessary: in both the classic differential privacy model and the LEDP model (local edge differential privacy, introduced recently by Dhulipala et al. [FOCS 2022]), we give $(ε, δ)$-differentially private algorithms with no multiplicative loss whatsoever. In other words, the loss is \emph{purely additive}. Moreover, our additive losses match or improve the best-known previous additive loss (in any version of differential privacy) when $1/δ$ is polynomial in $n$, and are almost tight: in the centralized setting, our additive loss is $O(\log n /ε)$ while there is a known lower bound of $Ω(\sqrt{\log n / ε})$. We also give a number of extensions. First, we show how to extend our techniques to both the node-weighted and the directed versions of the problem. Second, we give a separate algorithm with pure differential privacy (as opposed to approximate DP) but with worse approximation bounds. And third, we give a new algorithm for privately computing the optimal density which implies a separation between the structural problem of privately computing the densest subgraph and the numeric problem of privately computing the density of the densest subgraph.

cs.DS↗

arXiv2024

Advancing Differential Privacy: Where We Are Now and Future Directions for Real-World Deployment

In this article, we present a detailed review of current practices and state-of-the-art methodologies in the field of differential privacy (DP), with a focus of advancing DP's deployment in real-world applications. Key points and high-level contents of the article were originated from the discussions from "Differential Privacy (DP): Challenges Towards the Next Frontier," a workshop held in July 2022 with experts from industry, academia, and the public sector seeking answers to broad questions pertaining to privacy and its implications in the design of industry-grade systems. This article aims to provide a reference point for the algorithmic and design decisions within the realm of privacy, highlighting important challenges and potential research directions. Covering a wide spectrum of topics, this article delves into the infrastructure needs for designing private systems, methods for achieving better privacy/utility trade-offs, performing privacy attacks and auditing, as well as communicating privacy with broader audiences and stakeholders.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2023

Controlling Tail Risk in Online Ski-Rental

The classical ski-rental problem admits a textbook 2-competitive deterministic algorithm, and a simple randomized algorithm that is $\frac{e}{e-1}$-competitive in expectation. The randomized algorithm, while optimal in expectation, has a large variance in its performance: it has more than a 37% chance of competitive ratio exceeding 2, and a $Θ(1/n)$ chance of the competitive ratio exceeding $n$! We ask what happens to the optimal solution if we insist that the tail risk, i.e., the chance of the competitive ratio exceeding a specific value, is bounded by some constant $δ$. We find that this additional modification significantly changes the structure of the optimal solution. The probability of purchasing skis on a given day becomes non-monotone, discontinuous, and arbitrarily large (for sufficiently small tail risk $δ$ and large purchase cost $n$).

cs.DS↗

arXiv2023

Measuring Re-identification Risk

Compact user representations (such as embeddings) form the backbone of personalization services. In this work, we present a new theoretical framework to measure re-identification risk in such user representations. Our framework, based on hypothesis testing, formally bounds the probability that an attacker may be able to obtain the identity of a user from their representation. As an application, we show how our framework is general enough to model important real-world applications such as the Chrome's Topics API for interest-based advertising. We complement our theoretical bounds by showing provably good attack algorithms for re-identification that we use to estimate the re-identification risk in the Topics API. We believe this work provides a rigorous and interpretable notion of re-identification risk and a framework to measure it that can be used to inform real-world applications.

cs.CR↗