arXiv subjects

Sergio Pulido

Publications and source records attributed to Sergio Pulido.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Optimal Execution under Liquidity Uncertainty

We study an optimal execution strategy for purchasing a large block of shares over a fixed time horizon. The execution problem is subject to a general price impact that gradually dissipates due to market resilience. We allow for general limit order book shapes to characterize instantaneous market impact. To model the resilience dynamics, we introduce a stochastic process that governs the rate at which the deviation between the impacted and unaffected prices decays. This volume-effect process reflects fluctuations in market activity that drive the pace of liquidity replenishment. Additionally, we incorporate stochastic liquidity variations through a regime-switching Markov chain to capture abrupt shifts in market conditions. We study this singular control problem, where the trader optimally determines the timing and rate of purchases to minimize execution costs. The associated value function to this optimization problem is shown to satisfy a system of variational Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman inequalities. Moreover, we establish that it is the unique viscosity solution to this HJB system and study the analytical properties of the free boundary separating the execution and continuation regions. To illustrate our results, we present numerical examples under different limit-order book configurations, highlighting the interplay between price impact, resilience dynamics, and stochastic liquidity regimes in shaping the optimal execution strategy.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2025

An optimal transport based embedding to quantify the distance between playing styles in collective sports

This study presents a quantitative framework to compare teams in collective sports with respect to their style of play. The style of play is characterized by the team's spatial distribution over a collection of frames. As a first step, we introduce an optimal transport-based embedding to map frames into Euclidean space, allowing for the efficient computation of a distance. Then, building on this frame-level analysis, we leverage quantization to establish a similarity metric between teams based on a collection of frames from their games. For illustration, we present an analysis of a collection of games from the 2021-2022 Ligue 1 season. We are able to retrieve relevant clusters of game situations and calculate the similarity matrix between teams in terms of style of play. Additionally, we demonstrate the strength of the embedding as a preprocessing tool for relevant prediction tasks. Likewise, we apply our framework to analyze the dynamics in the first half of the NBA season in 2015-2016.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Understanding the worst-kept secret of high-frequency trading

Volume imbalance in a limit order book is often considered as a reliable indicator for predicting future price moves. In this work, we seek to analyse the nuances of the relationship between prices and volume imbalance. To this end, we study a market-making problem which allows us to view the imbalance as an optimal response to price moves. In our model, there is an underlying efficient price driving the mid-price, which follows the model with uncertainty zones. A single market maker knows the underlying efficient price and consequently the probability of a mid-price jump in the future. She controls the volumes she quotes at the best bid and ask prices. Solving her optimization problem allows us to understand endogenously the price-imbalance connection and to confirm in particular that it is optimal to quote a predictive imbalance. Our model can also be used by a platform to select a suitable tick size, which is known to be a crucial topic in financial regulation. The value function of the market maker's control problem can be viewed as a family of functions, indexed by the level of the market maker's inventory, solving a coupled system of PDEs. We show existence and uniqueness of classical solutions to this coupled system of equations. In the case of a continuous inventory, we also prove uniqueness of the market maker's optimal control policy.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2024

Feller's test for explosions of stochastic Volterra equations

This paper provides a Feller's test for explosions of one-dimensional continuous stochastic Volterra processes of convolution type. The study focuses on dynamics governed by nonsingular kernels, which preserve the semimartingale property of the processes and introduce memory features through a path-dependent drift. In contrast to the classical path-independent case, the sufficient condition derived in this study for a Volterra process to remain in the interior of an interval is generally more restrictive than the necessary condition. The results are illustrated with three specifications of the dynamics: the Volterra square-root diffusion, the Volterra Jacobi process and the Volterra power-type diffusion. For the Volterra square-root diffusion, also known as the Volterra CIR process, the paper presents a detailed discussion on the approximation of the singular fractional kernel with a sum of exponentials, a method commonly employed in the mathematical finance literature.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Polynomial Volterra processes

We study the class of continuous polynomial Volterra processes, which we define as solutions to stochastic Volterra equations driven by a continuous semimartingale with affine drift and quadratic diffusion matrix in the state of the Volterra process. To demonstrate the versatility of possible state spaces within our framework, we construct polynomial Volterra processes on the unit ball. This construction is based on a stochastic invariance principle for stochastic Volterra equations with possibly singular kernels. Similarly to classical polynomial processes, polynomial Volterra processes allow for tractable expressions of the moments in terms of the unique solution to a system of deterministic integral equations, which reduce to a system of ODEs in the classical case. By applying this observation to the moments of the finite-dimensional distributions we derive a uniqueness result for polynomial Volterra processes. Moreover, we prove that the moments are polynomials with respect to the initial condition, another crucial property shared by classical polynomial processes. The corresponding coefficients can be interpreted as a deterministic dual process and solve integral equations dual to those verified by the moments themselves. Additionally, we obtain a representation of the moments in terms of a pure jump process with killing, which corresponds to another non-deterministic dual process.

math.PR↗

arXiv2024

Existence of optimal controls for stochastic Volterra equations

We provide sufficient conditions that guarantee the existence of relaxed optimal controls in the weak formulation of stochastic control problems for stochastic Volterra equations (SVEs). Our study can be applied to rough processes that arise when the kernel appearing in the controlled SVE is singular at zero. The existence of relaxed optimal policies relies on the interaction between integrability hypotheses on the kernel and growth conditions on the running cost functional and the coefficients of the controlled SVEs. Under classical convexity assumptions, we can also deduce the existence of optimal strict controls.

math.OC↗

arXiv2023

Generation of Threat: Crediting football players for creating dangerous actions in an unbiased way

We introduce an innovative methodology to identify football players at the origin of threatening actions in a team. In our framework, a threat is defined as entering the opposing team's danger area. We investigate the timing of threat events and ball touches of players, and capture their correlation using Hawkes processes. Our model-based approach allows us to evaluate a player's ability to create danger both directly and through interactions with teammates. We define a new index, called Generation of Threat (GoT), that measures in an unbiased way the contribution of a player to threat generation. For illustration, we present a detailed analysis of Chelsea's 2016-2017 season, with a standout performance from Eden Hazard. We are able to credit each player for his involvement in danger creation and determine the main circuits leading to threat. In the same spirit, we investigate the danger generation process of Stade Rennais in the 2021-2022 season. Furthermore, we establish a comprehensive ranking of Ligue 1 players based on their generated threat in the 2021-2022 season. Our analysis reveals surprising results, with players such as Jason Berthomier, Moses Simon and Frederic Guilbert among the top performers in the GoT rankings. We also present a ranking of Ligue 1 central defenders in terms of generation of threat and confirm the great performance of some center-back pairs, such as Nayef Aguerd and Warmed Omari.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

The rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model

We study an extension of the Heston stochastic volatility model that incorporates rough volatility and jump clustering phenomena. In our model, named the rough Hawkes Heston stochastic volatility model, the spot variance is a rough Hawkes-type process proportional to the intensity process of the jump component appearing in the dynamics of the spot variance itself and the log returns. The model belongs to the class of affine Volterra models. In particular, the Fourier-Laplace transform of the log returns and the square of the volatility index can be computed explicitly in terms of solutions of deterministic Riccati-Volterra equations, which can be efficiently approximated using a multi-factor approximation technique. We calibrate a parsimonious specification of our model characterized by a power kernel and an exponential law for the jumps. We show that our parsimonious setup is able to simultaneously capture, with a high precision, the behavior of the implied volatility smile for both S&P 500 and VIX options. In particular, we observe that in our setting the usual shift in the implied volatility of VIX options is explained by a very low value of the power in the kernel. Our findings demonstrate the relevance, under an affine framework, of rough volatility and self-exciting jumps in order to capture the joint evolution of the S&P 500 and VIX.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2022

American options in the Volterra Heston model

We price American options using kernel-based approximations of the Volterra Heston model. We choose these approximations because they allow simulation-based techniques for pricing. We prove the convergence of American option prices in the approximating sequence of models towards the prices in the Volterra Heston model. A crucial step in the proof is to exploit the affine structure of the model in order to establish explicit formulas and convergence results for the conditional Fourier-Laplace transform of the log price and an adjusted version of the forward variance. We illustrate with numerical examples our convergence result and the behavior of American option prices with respect to certain parameters of the model.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2022

Affine Volterra processes with jumps

The theory of affine processes has been recently extended to the framework of stochastic Volterra equations with continuous trajectories. These so-called affine Volterra processes overcome modeling shortcomings of affine processes because they can have trajectories whose regularity is different from the regularity of the paths of Brownian motion. More specifically, singular kernels yield rough affine processes. This paper extends the theory by considering affine stochastic Volterra equations with jumps. This extension is not straightforward because the jump structure together with possible singularities of the kernel may induce explosions of the trajectories.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

A weak solution theory for stochastic Volterra equations of convolution type

We obtain general weak existence and stability results for stochastic convolution equations with jumps under mild regularity assumptions, allowing for non-Lipschitz coefficients and singular kernels. Our approach relies on weak convergence in $L^p$ spaces. The main tools are new a priori estimates on Sobolev-Slobodeckij norms of the solution, as well as a novel martingale problem that is equivalent to the original equation. This leads to generic approximation and stability theorems in the spirit of classical martingale problem theory. We also prove uniqueness and path regularity of solutions under additional hypotheses. To illustrate the applicability of our results, we consider scaling limits of nonlinear Hawkes processes and approximations of stochastic Volterra processes by Markovian semimartingales.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Affine Volterra processes

We introduce affine Volterra processes, defined as solutions of certain stochastic convolution equations with affine coefficients. Classical affine diffusions constitute a special case, but affine Volterra processes are neither semimartingales, nor Markov processes in general. We provide explicit exponential-affine representations of the Fourier-Laplace functional in terms of the solution of an associated system of deterministic integral equations of convolution type, extending well-known formulas for classical affine diffusions. For specific state spaces, we prove existence, uniqueness, and invariance properties of solutions of the corresponding stochastic convolution equations. Our arguments avoid infinite-dimensional stochastic analysis as well as stochastic integration with respect to non-semimartingales, relying instead on tools from the theory of finite-dimensional deterministic convolution equations. Our findings generalize and clarify recent results in the literature on rough volatility models in finance.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Density of the set of probability measures with the martingale representation property

Let $ψ$ be a multi-dimensional random variable. We show that the set of probability measures $\mathbb{Q}$ such that the $\mathbb{Q}$-martingale $S^{\mathbb{Q}}_t=\mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}}\left[ψ\lvert\mathcal{F}_{t}\right]$ has the Martingale Representation Property (MRP) is either empty or dense in $\mathcal{L}_\infty$-norm. The proof is based on a related result involving analytic fields of terminal conditions $(ψ(x))_{x\in U}$ and probability measures $(\mathbb{Q}(x))_{x\in U}$ over an open set $U$. Namely, we show that the set of points $x\in U$ such that $S_t(x) = \mathbb{E}^{\mathbb{Q}(x)}\left[ψ(x)\lvert\mathcal{F}_{t}\right]$ does not have the MRP, either coincides with $U$ or has Lebesgue measure zero. Our study is motivated by the problem of endogenous completeness in financial economics.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Markov cubature rules for polynomial processes

We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as Markov cubature rules. The polynomial property allows us to study such rules using algebraic techniques. Markov cubature rules aid the tractability of path-dependent tasks such as American option pricing in models where the underlying factors are polynomial processes.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

From Glosten-Milgrom to the whole limit order book and applications to financial regulation

We build an agent-based model for the order book with three types of market participants: informed trader, noise trader and competitive market makers. Using a Glosten-Milgrom like approach, we are able to deduce the whole limit order book (bid-ask spread and volume available at each price) from the interactions between the different agents. More precisely, we obtain a link between efficient price dynamic, proportion of trades due to the noise trader, traded volume, bid-ask spread and equilibrium limit order book state. With this model, we provide a relevant tool for regulators and market platforms. We show for example that it allows us to forecast consequences of a tick size change on the microstructure of an asset. It also enables us to value quantitatively the queue position of a limit order in the book.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2018

Affine Rough Models

The goal of this survey article is to explain and elucidate the affine structure of recent models appearing in the rough volatility literature, and show how it leads to exponential-affine transform formulas.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2018

The Jacobi Stochastic Volatility Model

We introduce a novel stochastic volatility model where the squared volatility of the asset return follows a Jacobi process. It contains the Heston model as a limit case. We show that the joint density of any finite sequence of log returns admits a Gram-Charlier A expansion with closed-form coefficients. We derive closed-form series representations for option prices whose discounted payoffs are functions of the asset price trajectory at finitely many time points. This includes European call, put, and digital options, forward start options, and can be applied to discretely monitored Asian options. In a numerical analysis we show that option prices can be accurately and efficiently approximated by truncating their series representations.

q-fin.MF↗

arXiv2017

Financial Models with Defaultable Numéraires

Financial models are studied where each asset may potentially lose value relative to any other. Conditioning on non-devaluation, each asset can serve as proper numéraire and classical valuation rules can be formulated. It is shown when and how these local valuation rules can be aggregated to obtain global arbitrage-free valuation formulas.

q-fin.PR↗