arXiv subjects

Sergio Toral Marín

Publications and source records attributed to Sergio Toral Marín.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Calibrated Uncertainty for Informative Path Planning in Aquatic Environmental Monitoring

Informative Path Planning for scalar field reconstruction uses predictive uncertainty to direct sensing vehicles toward maximally informative locations. Gaussian Processes provide this signal but their stationary isotropic kernels are misspecified for non-homogeneous phenomena such as oil spills, producing miscalibrated estimates that degrade planning. We investigate whether replacing the Gaussian Process with a well-calibrated Deep Ensemble improves path planning outcomes, and whether uncertainty quality interacts with the choice of planning algorithm. Five strategies ($ε$-Greedy, Value Greedy, Uncertainty Greedy, Monte Carlo Tree Search, and Receding Horizon Orienteering) share a common Deep Ensemble backbone trained on physics-based oil spill simulations. On held-out stochastic spill scenarios, the Deep Ensemble reduces normalised reconstruction error by $83\%$ relative to the Gaussian Process baseline. Crucially, well-calibrated uncertainty amplifies the importance of the planning strategy: the performance gap between algorithms is negligible under miscalibrated models but becomes substantial under the ensemble, where multi-step lookahead planners outperform greedy selection by up to $32\%$ in reconstruction error and achieve IoU above $0.85$. Monte Carlo Tree Search is the recommended planner, matching Orienteering in reconstruction quality at an order-of-magnitude lower computational cost.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Reconstruction in Actuatic Disaster Scenarios with Autonomous Vehicles

Accurate reconstruction of environmental scalar fields from sparse onboard observations is essential for autonomous vehicles engaged in aquatic monitoring. Beyond point estimates, principled uncertainty quantification is critical for active sensing strategies such as Informative Path Planning, where epistemic uncertainty drives data collection decisions. This paper compares Gaussian Processes, Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, and Evidential Deep Learning for simultaneous scalar field reconstruction and uncertainty decomposition under three perceptual models representative of real sensor modalities. Results show that Evidential Deep Learning achieves the best reconstruction accuracy and uncertainty calibration across all sensor configurations at the lowest inference cost, while Gaussian Processes are fundamentally limited by their stationary kernel assumption and become intractable as observation density grows. These findings support Evidential Deep Learning as the preferred method for uncertainty-aware field reconstruction in real-time autonomous vehicle deployments.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Deep Reinforcement Multi-agent Learning framework for Information Gathering with Local Gaussian Processes for Water Monitoring

The conservation of hydrological resources involves continuously monitoring their contamination. A multi-agent system composed of autonomous surface vehicles is proposed in this paper to efficiently monitor the water quality. To achieve a safe control of the fleet, the fleet policy should be able to act based on measurements and to the the fleet state. It is proposed to use Local Gaussian Processes and Deep Reinforcement Learning to jointly obtain effective monitoring policies. Local Gaussian processes, unlike classical global Gaussian processes, can accurately model the information in a dissimilar spatial correlation which captures more accurately the water quality information. A Deep convolutional policy is proposed, that bases the decisions on the observation on the mean and variance of this model, by means of an information gain reward. Using a Double Deep Q-Learning algorithm, agents are trained to minimize the estimation error in a safe manner thanks to a Consensus-based heuristic. Simulation results indicate an improvement of up to 24% in terms of the mean absolute error with the proposed models. Also, training results with 1-3 agents indicate that our proposed approach returns 20% and 24% smaller average estimation errors for, respectively, monitoring water quality variables and monitoring algae blooms, as compared to state-of-the-art approaches

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

Censored Deep Reinforcement Patrolling with Information Criterion for Monitoring Large Water Resources using Autonomous Surface Vehicles

Monitoring and patrolling large water resources is a major challenge for conservation. The problem of acquiring data of an underlying environment that usually changes within time involves a proper formulation of the information. The use of Autonomous Surface Vehicles equipped with water quality sensor modules can serve as an early-warning system agents for contamination peak-detection, algae blooms monitoring, or oil-spill scenarios. In addition to information gathering, the vehicle must plan routes that are free of obstacles on non-convex maps. This work proposes a framework to obtain a collision-free policy that addresses the patrolling task for static and dynamic scenarios. Using information gain as a measure of the uncertainty reduction over data, it is proposed a Deep Q-Learning algorithm improved by a Q-Censoring mechanism for model-based obstacle avoidance. The obtained results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed algorithm for water resource monitoring for static and dynamic scenarios. Simulations showed the use of noise-networks are a good choice for enhanced exploration, with 3 times less redundancy in the paths. Previous coverage strategies are also outperformed both in the accuracy of the obtained contamination model by a 13% on average and by a 37% in the detection of dangerous contamination peaks. Finally, these results indicate the appropriateness of the proposed framework for monitoring scenarios with autonomous vehicles.

cs.RO↗