Sergio Vallejo-Peña | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

The Impact of Galaxy Catalogue Completeness with GLADE+ on Dark Siren Cosmology: A Line-of-Sight Prior Analysis of GWTC-3 Events

Cosmological parameters can be estimated from dark sirens, gravitational waves events without electromagnetic counterpart, by using inference methods which estimate statistically the source redshift from galaxy catalogs. We study the effects of applying different apparent magnitude cuts to the GLADE+ catalog, analyzing events from the third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA gravitational wave transient catalog (GWTC-3), consisting of 42 binary black holes, 3 neutron star black hole systems and the event GW190425 associated to a binary neutron star coalescence. We find that the inclusion of fainter galaxies has no significant effects on the joint analysis of almost all the events, while for some single well localized event, the effects can be more important, in particular for the event GW190814. To understand why inclusion of fainter galaxies in general has negligible impact on the estimation of cosmological parameters, we compare the redshift of the events with the redshift distribution of dimmer galaxies, and find that most of them are not located in redshift proximity of the events, explaining the limited impact of their inclusion. The event, GW190814 is an exception, as its distance localization, converted into redshift, overlaps with fainter galaxies, unlike what happens for other events, which are farther away. These results show the importance of event localization and catalog depth in determining the impact of catalog completeness on cosmological parameters estimation. To check quantitatively what is the information gained by adding fainter galaxies we have analyzed its impact on the line of sight prior calculation. Based on the results for GW190814 we expect that fainter galaxies will play a more significant role in the estimation of cosmological parameters also for the joint analysis of multiple events, when deeper catalogs will be available.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

Blinded Mock Data Challenge: Is the Spectral Siren Technique Robust for Measuring the Hubble Constant?

The measurement of the Hubble constant from gravitational wave (GW) sources is one of the independent avenues to shed light on the Hubble tension, which is associated with about an $8\%$ mismatch in the value of the Hubble constant inferred from low-redshift and high-redshift cosmological probes. Such a key measurement is expected from GW sources as it is a direct measurement of the Hubble constant using the luminosity distance without the need for any luminosity distance calibration. However, such a measurement relies strongly on the reliability of the independent inference of the source redshift of the GW source. As a result, it becomes pertinent to gauge the accuracy and precision of techniques in understanding their reliability in inferring redshifts of GW sources. In this work, we show the requirement of the spectral siren technique in knowing the mass distribution of BBHs across cosmic redshifts in order to make a reliable inference of the Hubble constant. We show by a blinded mock data challenge analysis the criticality in capturing the underlying metallicity dependence of the BBH mass distribution and its interplay with time-delay distribution for a robust inference of the Hubble constant using the spectral siren technique. In order to have a reliable measurement of the Hubble constant at the level required to resolve the Hubble tension in the future, the mass distribution of the BBHs needs to be independently inferred at all relevant redshifts with an accuracy less than the statistical uncertainty. Otherwise, a mismatch of the true model and the underlying assumption made in the analysis can lead to a best-fit model for the wrong value of both BBH population parameters as well as the Hubble constant.

astro-ph.CO↗