arXiv subjects

Seth Guikema

Publications and source records attributed to Seth Guikema.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Operational early warning of thunderstorm-driven power outages from open data: a two-stage machine learning approach

Thunderstorm-driven power outages are difficult to predict because most storms do not cause damage, convective processes occur rapidly and chaotically, and the available public data are noisy and incomplete. Severe convective storms now account for a large and rising share of U.S. weather losses, yet thunderstorm-induced outages remain understudied. We develop a 48-hour early-warning model for summer thunderstorm-related outages in Michigan using only open-source outage (EAGLE-I) and weather (METAR) data. Relative to prior work, we (i) rely solely on public data, (ii) preserve convective extremes from a sparse station network via parameter-specific kriging and causal spatiotemporal features, and (iii) use a multi-level LSTM-based architecture evaluated on event-centric peak metrics. The pipeline builds rolling and k-NN inverse-distance aggregates to capture moisture advection, wind shifts, and pressure drops. A two-stage design uses a logistic gate followed by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regressor to filter routine periods and limit noise exposure. Evaluation focuses on state-level peaks of at least 50,000 customers without power, using hits, misses, false alarms, and peak-conditional MASE (cMASE) within 48-hour windows, with uncertainty quantified by block bootstrapping. On the test sample, the Two-Stage model detects more peaks with only one additional false alarm and reduces cMASE near peaks, providing event-focused early warnings without the utility-specific data.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Building Trees for Probabilistic Prediction via Scoring Rules

Decision trees built with data remain in widespread use for nonparametric prediction. Predicting probability distributions is preferred over point predictions when uncertainty plays a prominent role in analysis and decision-making. We study modifying a tree to produce nonparametric predictive distributions. We find the standard method for building trees may not result in good predictive distributions and propose changing the splitting criteria for trees to one based on proper scoring rules. Analysis of both simulated data and several real datasets demonstrates that using these new splitting criteria results in trees with improved predictive properties considering the entire predictive distribution.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2013

Characterizing and Predicting the Robustness of Power-law Networks

Power-law networks such as the Internet, terrorist cells, species relationships, and cellular metabolic interactions are susceptible to node failures, yet maintaining network connectivity is essential for network functionality. Disconnection of the network leads to fragmentation and, in some cases, collapse of the underlying system. However, the influences of the topology of networks on their ability to withstand node failures are poorly understood. Based on a study of the response of 2,000 power-law networks to node failures, we find that networks with higher nodal degree and clustering coefficient, lower betweenness centrality, and lower variability in path length and clustering coefficient maintain their cohesion better during such events. We also find that network robustness, i.e., the ability to withstand node failures, can be accurately predicted a priori for power-law networks across many fields. These results provide a basis for designing new, more robust networks, improving the robustness of existing networks such as the Internet and cellular metabolic pathways, and efficiently degrading networks such as terrorist cells.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2013

Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist which can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. Thus in this paper, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically-oriented models to advanced physical flow-based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to compare performances measures achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combination of models to use when analyzing large-scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.

physics.soc-ph↗