arXiv subjects

Seung Jung Lee

Publications and source records attributed to Seung Jung Lee.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Agentic AI Systems and Financial Stability, From Model Risk to Systemic Risk

Financial stability rests on the premise that distress is largely idiosyncratic and therefore diversifiable: when one institution errs, the rest of the system absorbs the shock. That premise fails when many decision-makers depend on the same infrastructure. Agentic AI systems, which take consequential actions rather than only emitting predictions, are becoming such a substrate, and the binding concern shifts from the model risk of a single deployment to the systemic risk of the population. We develop this account in six mathematical settings. Chapter 1 recasts the PD/LGD/EAD decomposition of expected loss as an expected-harm identity and introduces a set-valued containment-risk measure; under a lever-assignment axiom that review cannot intercept an irreversible action, no non-preventive control satisfies a coherent tail constraint. Chapter 2 lifts this to a fleet sharing a foundation model: the shared model is a non-diversifiable common exposure whose expected-shortfall floor holds however large the fleet grows, and a percolation threshold governs contagion. Chapter 3 recasts these dynamics as a marked, Hawkes-excited jump diffusion, identifying the robust stress problem with a time-consistent entropic risk measure. Chapter 4 treats runtime guardrails as partially observed stochastic control, giving an observability trichotomy, a detection floor, and, under commit exogeneity, a runtime-impossibility corollary. Chapter 5 makes the adversary a player, yielding an underinvestment wedge proportional to systemic reach. Chapter 6 makes capability a state variable in an arms race. One claim runs through all six: the systematic component of agentic risk cannot be diversified, detected away, or reversed, and only ex-ante structural prevention moves it.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2025

Financial Stability Implications of Generative AI: Taming the Animal Spirits

This paper investigates the impact of the adoption of generative AI on financial stability. We conduct laboratory-style experiments using large language models to replicate classic studies on herd behavior in trading decisions. Our results show that AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, relying predominantly on private information over market trends. Increased reliance on AI-powered trading advice could therefore potentially lead to fewer asset price bubbles arising from animal spirits that trade by following the herd. However, exploring variations in the experimental settings reveals that AI agents can be induced to herd optimally when explicitly guided to make profit-maximizing decisions. While optimal herding improves market discipline, this behavior still carries potential implications for financial stability. In other experimental variations, we show that AI agents are not purely algorithmic, but have inherited some elements of human conditioning and bias.

q-fin.GN↗

arXiv2025

LLM on a Budget: Active Knowledge Distillation for Efficient Classification of Large Text Corpora

Large Language Models (LLMs) are highly accurate in classification tasks, however, substantial computational and financial costs hinder their large-scale deployment in dynamic environments. Knowledge Distillation (KD) where a LLM "teacher" trains a smaller and more efficient "student" model, offers a promising solution to this problem. However, the distillation process itself often remains costly for large datasets, since it requires the teacher to label a vast number of samples while incurring significant token consumption. To alleviate this challenge, in this work we explore the active learning (AL) as a way to create efficient student models at a fraction of the cost while preserving the LLM's performance. In particular, we introduce M-RARU (Multi-class Randomized Accept/Reject Uncertainty Sampling), a novel AL algorithm that significantly reduces training costs. M-RARU employs an innovative strategy combining uncertainty with a randomized accept-reject mechanism to select only the most informative data points for the LLM teacher. This focused approach significantly minimizes required API calls and data processing time. We evaluate M-RARU against random sampling across five diverse student models (SVM, LDA, RF, GBDT, and DistilBERT) on multiple benchmark datasets. Experiments demonstrate that our proposed method achieves up to 80% reduction in sample requirements as compared to random sampling, substantially improving classification accuracy while reducing financial costs and overall training time.

cs.LG↗