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Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi

Publications and source records attributed to Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi.

27 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
arXiv2022

Short-term prediction of stream turbidity using surrogate data and a meta-model approach

Many water-quality monitoring programs aim to measure turbidity to help guide effective management of waterways and catchments, yet distributing turbidity sensors throughout networks is typically cost prohibitive. To this end, we built and compared the ability of dynamic regression (ARIMA), long short-term memory neural nets (LSTM), and generalized additive models (GAM) to forecast stream turbidity one step ahead, using surrogate data from relatively low-cost in-situ sensors and publicly available databases. We iteratively trialled combinations of four surrogate covariates (rainfall, water level, air temperature and total global solar exposure) selecting a final model for each type that minimised the corrected Akaike Information Criterion. Cross-validation using a rolling time-window indicated that ARIMA, which included the rainfall and water-level covariates only, produced the most accurate predictions, followed closely by GAM, which included all four covariates. We constructed a meta-model, trained on time-series features of turbidity, to take advantage of the strengths of each model over different time points and predict the best model (that with the lowest forecast error one-step prior) for each time step. The meta-model outperformed all other models, indicating that this methodology can yield high accuracy and may be a viable alternative to using measurements sourced directly from turbidity-sensors where costs prohibit their deployment and maintenance, and when predicting turbidity across the short term. Our findings also indicated that temperature and light-associated variables, for example underwater illuminance, may hold promise as cost-effective, high-frequency surrogates of turbidity, especially when combined with other covariates, like rainfall, that are typically measured at coarse levels of spatial resolution.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2021

Honeyboost: Boosting honeypot performance with data fusion and anomaly detection

With cyber incidents and data breaches becoming increasingly common, being able to predict a cyberattack has never been more crucial. The ability of Network Anomaly Detection Systems (NADS) to identify unusual behavior makes them useful in predicting such attacks. However, NADS often suffer from high false positive rates. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework called Honeyboost that enhances the performance of honeypot aided NADS. Using data from the LAN Security Monitoring Project, Honeyboost identifies most anomalous nodes before they access the honeypot aiding early detection and prediction. Furthermore, using extreme value theory, we achieve the highly desirable low false positive rates. Honeyboost is an unsupervised method comprising two approaches: horizontal and vertical. The horizontal approach constructs a time series from the communications of each node, with node-level features encapsulating their behavior over time. The vertical approach finds anomalies in each protocol space. Using a window-based model, which is typically used in online scenarios, the horizontal and vertical approaches are combined to identify anomalies and gain useful insights. Experimental results indicate the efficacy of our framework in identifying suspicious activities of nodes.

cs.CR↗
arXiv2021

Unsupervised Anomaly Detection Ensembles using Item Response Theory

Constructing an ensemble from a heterogeneous set of unsupervised anomaly detection methods is challenging because the class labels or the ground truth is unknown. Thus, traditional ensemble techniques that use the response variable or the class labels cannot be used to construct an ensemble for unsupervised anomaly detection. We use Item Response Theory (IRT) -- a class of models used in educational psychometrics to assess student and test question characteristics -- to construct an unsupervised anomaly detection ensemble. IRT's latent trait computation lends itself to anomaly detection because the latent trait can be used to uncover the hidden ground truth. Using a novel IRT mapping to the anomaly detection problem, we construct an ensemble that can downplay noisy, non-discriminatory methods and accentuate sharper methods. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the IRT ensemble on an extensive data repository, by comparing its performance to other ensemble techniques.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2019

Singularities of Axially Symmetric Volume Preserving Mean Curvature Flow

We investigate the formation of singularities for surfaces evolving by volume preserving mean curvature flow. For axially symmetric flows - surfaces of revolution - in $\mathbb{R}^3$ with Neumann boundary conditions, we prove that the first developing singularity is of Type I. The result is obtained without any additional curvature assumptions being imposed, while axial symmetry and boundary conditions are justifiable given the volume constraint. Additional results and ingredients towards the main proof include a non-cylindrical parabolic maximum principle, and a series of estimates on geometric quantities involving gradient, curvature terms and derivatives thereof. These hold in arbitrary dimensions.

math.DG↗
arXiv2019

On the extension of axially symmetric volume flow and mean curvature flow

We study the provenance of singularity formation under mean curvature flow and volume preserving mean curvature flow in an axially symmetric setting. We prove that if the mean curvature is uniformly bounded on any finite time interval, then no singularities can develop during that time under both mean curvature flow and volume preserving mean curvature flow.

math.DG↗
arXiv2019

A framework for automated anomaly detection in high frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors

River water-quality monitoring is increasingly conducted using automated in situ sensors, enabling timelier identification of unexpected values. However, anomalies caused by technical issues confound these data, while the volume and velocity of data prevent manual detection. We present a framework for automated anomaly detection in high-frequency water-quality data from in situ sensors, using turbidity, conductivity and river level data. After identifying end-user needs and defining anomalies, we ranked their importance and selected suitable detection methods. High priority anomalies included sudden isolated spikes and level shifts, most of which were classified correctly by regression-based methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average models. However, using other water-quality variables as covariates reduced performance due to complex relationships among variables. Classification of drift and periods of anomalously low or high variability improved when we applied replaced anomalous measurements with forecasts, but this inflated false positive rates. Feature-based methods also performed well on high priority anomalies, but were also less proficient at detecting lower priority anomalies, resulting in high false negative rates. Unlike regression-based methods, all feature-based methods produced low false positive rates, but did not and require training or optimization. Rule-based methods successfully detected impossible values and missing observations. Thus, we recommend using a combination of methods to improve anomaly detection performance, whilst minimizing false detection rates. Furthermore, our framework emphasizes the importance of communication between end-users and analysts for optimal outcomes with respect to both detection performance and end-user needs. Our framework is applicable to other types of high frequency time-series data and anomaly detection applications.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2018

Predicting Sediment and Nutrient Concentrations in Rivers Using High Frequency Water Quality Surrogates

A particular focus of water-quality monitoring is the concentrations of sediments and nutrients in rivers, constituents that can smother biota and cause eutrophication. However, the physical and economic constraints of manual sampling prohibit data collection at the frequency required to capture adequately the variation in concentrations through time. Here, we developed models to predict total suspended solids (TSS) and oxidized nitrogen (NOx) concentrations based on high-frequency time series of turbidity, conductivity and river level data from low-cost in situ sensors in rivers flowing into the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. We fit generalized least squares linear mixed effects models with a continuous first-order autoregressive correlation to data collected traditionally by manual sampling for subsequent analysis in the laboratory, then used these models to predict TSS or NOx from in situ sensor water-quality surrogate data, at two freshwater sites and one estuarine site. These models accounted for both temporal autocorrelation and unevenly time-spaced observations in the data. Turbidity proved a useful surrogate of TSS, with high predictive ability at both freshwater and estuarine sites. NOx models had much poorer fits, even when additional covariates of conductivity and river level were included along with turbidity. Furthermore, the relative influence of covariates in the NOx models was not consistent across sites. Our findings likely reflect the complexity of dissolved nutrient dynamics in rivers, which are influenced by multiple and interacting factors including physical, chemical and biological processes, and the need for greater and better incorporation of spatial and temporal components within models.

stat.AP↗
arXiv2011

On the Convergence of Axially Symmetric Volume Preserving Mean Curvature Flow

We study the convergence of an axially symmetric hypersurface evolving by volume preserving mean curvature flow. Assuming the surface is not pinching off along the axis at any time during the flow, and without any additional conditions, as for example on the curvature, we prove that it converges to a hemisphere, when the hypersurface has a free boundary and satisfies Neumann boundary data, and to a sphere when it is compact without boundary.

math.DG↗