arXiv subjects

Shahab Joudaki

Publications and source records attributed to Shahab Joudaki.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

KiDS-Legacy: Constraining dark energy, neutrino mass, and curvature

We constrained minimally extended cosmological models with the cosmic shear analysis of the final data release from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy) in combination with external probes. Due to the consistency of the KiDS-Legacy analysis with the cosmic microwave background (CMB), we could combine these datasets reliably for the first time. Additionally, we used CMB lensing, galaxy redshift-space distortions, and baryon acoustic oscillations. We assessed, in turn, the effects of spatial curvature, varying neutrino masses, and an evolving dark energy component on cosmological constraints from KiDS-Legacy alone and from KiDS-Legacy combined with external probes. We find KiDS-Legacy to be consistent with the fiducial flat $Λ$-cold dark matter ($Λ$CDM) analysis with $c^2 \sum m_ν\leq 1.5\,$eV, $w_0 = -1.0\pm 0.7$, and $w_a = -1.3^{+1.9}_{-2.0}$ while $Ω_K = 0.08^{+0.16}_{-0.17}$ (1$σ$ bounds) with an almost equal goodness of fit. The $w_0w_a$CDM model is not a significant improvement over $Λ$CDM when cosmic shear and CMB lensing are combined, yielding a Bayes factor $B = 0.07$. If all probes are combined, however, $B$ increases to 2.73, corresponding to a $2.6σ$ suspiciousness tension. The constraint on $S_8 = σ_8\sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m}/0.3}$ is robust to opening up the parameter space for cosmic shear. Adding all external datasets to KiDS-Legacy, we find $S_8 = 0.816 \pm 0.006$ in $Λ$CDM and $S_8 = 0.837 \pm 0.008$ in $w_0 w_a$CDM for all probes combined.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2026

KiDS-Legacy: Constraints on Horndeski gravity from weak lensing combined with galaxy clustering and cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We present constraints on modified gravity from a cosmic shear analysis of the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy) in combination with DESI measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations, eBOSS observations of redshift space distortions, and cosmic microwave background anisotropies from Planck. We study the Horndeski class of modified gravity models in an effective field theory framework employing a parameterisation that satisfies stability conditions by construction and, for the first time, present a cosmological analysis in this inherently stable parameter basis. Cosmic shear constrains the Horndeski parameter space significantly, matching or surpassing the CMB contribution. Adopting the de-mixed kinetic term of the scalar field perturbation, $D_{\rm kin}$, and the deviation of the Planck mass from its fiducial value, $ΔM_*^2\equiv M_*^2-1$, as model parameters, we constrain their present values to be $Δ\hat{M}_*^2=0.32^{+0.07}_{-0.21}$ and $\hat{D}_{\rm kin} = 3.74^{+0.69}_{-1.92}$, which deviate from general relativity at $1.5σ$ and $1.9σ$, respectively. We derive constraints on the structure growth parameter $S_8=0.813^{+0.008}_{-0.011}$, which is compatible with the $Λ$CDM constraint at $0.54σ$. We obtain the deviation of the effective Newtonian coupling from the GR value as $Δμ_{\infty,{\rm eff}}=0.066\pm0.023$, corresponding to a $2.9σ$ significance. Although modified gravity provides a slightly better fit to the data, a model comparison shows only a weak preference for modified gravity at the $1.4σ$ level. When adopting a dynamical dark energy model of the background cosmology, the inferred modified gravity parameter constraints are stable with respect to a $Λ$CDM background, while a mild preference at $1.57σ$ for dynamical dark energy remains.

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arXiv2026

Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL): Rubin-era photometric redshift stress-testing and at-scale production

Virtually all extragalactic use cases of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) require the use of galaxy redshift information, yet the vast majority of its sample of tens of billions of galaxies will lack high-fidelity spectroscopic measurements thereof, instead relying on photometric redshifts (photo-$z$) subject to systematic imprecision and inaccuracy best encapsulated by photo-$z$ probability density functions (PDFs). We present the version 1 release of Redshift Assessment Infrastructure Layers (RAIL), an open source Python library for at-scale probabilistic photo-$z$ estimation, initiated by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) with contributions from the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing (LINCC) Frameworks team. RAIL's three subpackages provide modular tools for end-to-end stress-testing, including a forward modeling suite to generate realistically complex photometry, a unified API for estimating per-galaxy and ensemble redshift PDFs by an extensible set of algorithms, and built-in metrics of both photo-$z$ PDFs and point estimates. RAIL serves as a flexible toolkit enabling the derivation and optimization of photo-$z$ data products at scale for a variety of science goals and is not specific to LSST data. We thus describe to the extragalactic science community, including and beyond Rubin the design and functionality of the RAIL software library so that any researcher may have access to its wide array of photo-$z$ characterization and assessment tools.

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arXiv2025

A Unified Photometric Redshift Calibration for Weak Lensing Surveys using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The effective redshift distribution $n(z)$ of galaxies is a critical component in the study of weak gravitational lensing. Here, we introduce a new method for determining $n(z)$ for weak lensing surveys based on high-quality redshifts and neural network-based importance weights. Additionally, we present the first unified photometric redshift calibration of the three leading stage-III weak lensing surveys, the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), with state-of-the-art spectroscopic data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We verify our method using a new, data-driven approach and obtain $n(z)$ constraints with statistical uncertainties of order $σ_{\bar z} \sim 0.01$ and smaller. Our analysis is largely independent of previous photometric redshift calibrations and, thus, provides an important cross-check in light of recent cosmological tensions. Overall, we find excellent agreement with previously published results on the DES Y3 and HSC Y1 data sets while there are some differences on the mean redshift with respect to the previously published KiDS-1000 results. We attribute the latter to mismatches in photometric noise properties in the COSMOS field compared to the wider KiDS SOM-gold catalog. At the same time, the new $n(z)$ estimates for KiDS do not significantly change estimates of cosmic structure growth from cosmic shear. Finally, we discuss how our method can be applied to future weak lensing calibrations with DESI data.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Cosmological Constraints from Full-Scale Clustering and Galaxy-Galaxy Lensing with DESI DR1

We present constraints on cosmic structure growth from the analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing with galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1. We analyze four samples drawn from the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) target classes. Projected galaxy clustering measurements from DESI are supplemented with lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), and the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey around the same targets. Our method relies on a simulation-based modeling framework using the AbacusSummit simulations and a complex halo occupation distribution model that incorporates assembly bias. We analyze scales down to $0.4 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for clustering and $2.5 \, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ for lensing, leading to stringent constraints on $S_8 = σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\mathrm{m} / 0.3}$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m}$ when fixing other cosmological parameters to those preferred by the CMB. We find $S_8 = 0.794 \pm 0.023$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.295 \pm 0.012$ when using lensing measurements from DES and KiDS. Similarly, for HSC, we find $S_8 = 0.793 \pm 0.017$ and $Ω_\mathrm{m} = 0.303 \pm 0.010$ when assuming the best-fit photometric redshift offset suggested by the HSC collaboration. Overall, our results are in good agreement with other results in the literature while continuing to highlight the constraining power of non-linear scales.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The Power of DESI for Photometric Redshift Calibration: A Case Study with KiDS-1000

Accurate redshift estimates are a critical requirement for weak lensing surveys and one of the main uncertainties in constraints on dark energy and large-scale cosmic structure. In this paper, we study the potential to calibrate photometric redshift (photo-z) distributions for gravitational lensing using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Since beginning its science operations in 2021, DESI has collected more than 50 million redshifts, adding about one million monthly. In addition to its large-scale structure samples, DESI has also acquired over 256k high-quality spectroscopic redshifts (spec-zs) in the COSMOS and XMM and VVDS fields. This is already a factor of 3 larger than previous spec-z calibration compilations in these two regions. Here, we explore calibrating photo-zs for the subset of KiDS-1000 galaxies that fall into joint self-organizing map (SOM) cells overlapping the DESI COSMOS footprint using the DESI COSMOS observations. Estimating the redshift distribution in KiDS-1000 with the new DESI data, we find broad consistency with previously published results while also detecting differences in the mean redshift in some tomographic bins with an average shifts of Delta Mean(z) = -0.028 in the mean and Delta Median(z) = +0.011 in the median across tomographic bins. However, we also find that incompleteness per SOM cell, i.e., groups of galaxies with similar colors and magnitudes, can modify n(z) distributions. Finally, we comment on the fact that larger photometric catalogs, aligned with the DESI COSMOS and DESI XMM and VVDS footprints, would be needed to fully exploit the DESI dataset and would extend the coverage to nearly eight times the area of existing 9-band photometry.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

Taking the Weight Off: Mitigating Parameter Bias from Catastrophic Outliers in 3$\times$2pt Analysis

Stage IV cosmological surveys will map the universe with unprecedented precision, reducing statistical uncertainties to levels where unmodelled systematics can significantly bias inference. In particular, photometric redshift (photo-z) errors and intrinsic alignments (IA) must be robustly accounted for to ensure accurate inference of cosmological parameters. The increasing depth of Stage IV surveys exacerbates these challenges by producing low signal-to-noise galaxy populations prone to inaccurate photo-z measurements. Catastrophically misidentified redshifts are especially problematic for 3$\times$2pt inferences that combine weak lensing and galaxy clustering information. We demonstrate that even modest outlier fractions (e.g. 5%) can lead to substantial biases in cosmological parameter estimates: up to 1.8$σ$ in $Ω_M$ and $σ_8$, and over 8$σ$ in the IA redshift evolution parameter $η$. To address this, we introduce a flexible weighting scheme at the likelihood level that down-weights the most contamination-sensitive elements of the data vector during inference. This method mitigates biases without inflating the parameter space, reducing cosmological parameter biases to below 1$σ$ without substantially degrading constraining power. Our approach offers a practical solution for future analyses, enabling robust cosmological inference in the presence of catastrophic redshift errors.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Cosmological constraints from cosmic shear with the complete Kilo-Degree Survey

We present cosmic shear constraints from the completed Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), where the cosmological parameter $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.815^{+0.016}_{-0.021}$, is found to be in agreement ($0.73σ$) with results from the Planck Legacy cosmic microwave background experiment. The final KiDS footprint spans $1347$ square degrees of deep nine-band imaging across the optical and near-infrared, along with an extra $23$ square degrees of KiDS-like calibration observations of deep spectroscopic surveys. Improvements in our redshift distribution estimation methodology, combined with our enhanced calibration data and multi-band image simulations, allow us to extend our lensed sample out to a photometric redshift of $z_{\rm B}\leq2.0$. Compared to previous KiDS analyses, the increased survey area and redshift depth results in a $\sim32\%$ improvement in constraining power in terms of $Σ_8\equivσ_8\left(Ω_{\rm m}/0.3\right)^α= 0.821^{+0.014}_{-0.016}$, where $α= 0.58$ has been optimised to match the revised degeneracy direction of $σ_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$. We adopt a new physically motivated intrinsic alignment model that depends jointly on the galaxy sample's halo mass and spectral type distributions, and that is informed by previous direct alignment measurements. We also marginalise over our uncertainty on the impact of baryon feedback on the non-linear matter power spectrum. Comparing to previous KiDS analyses, we conclude that the increase seen in $S_8$ primarily results from our improved redshift distribution estimation and calibration, as well as new survey area and improved image reduction. Our companion paper Stölzner et al. (submitted) presents a full suite of internal and external consistency tests, finding the KiDS-Legacy data set to be the most internally robust sample produced by KiDS to date.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Redshift distributions and their calibration

We present the redshift calibration methodology and bias estimates for the cosmic shear analysis of the fifth and final data release (DR5) of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS). KiDS-DR5 includes a greatly expanded compilation of calibrating spectra, drawn from $27$ square degrees of dedicated optical and near-IR imaging taken over deep spectroscopic fields. The redshift distribution calibration leverages a range of new methods and updated simulations to produce the most precise $N(z)$ bias estimates used by KiDS to date. Improvements to our colour-based redshift distribution measurement method (SOM) mean that we are able to use many more sources per tomographic bin for our cosmological analyses, and better estimate the representation of our source sample given the available spec-$z$. We validate our colour-based redshift distribution estimates with spectroscopic cross-correlations (CC). We find that improvements to our cross-correlation redshift distribution measurement methods mean that redshift distribution biases estimated between the SOM and CC methods are fully consistent on simulations, and the data calibration is consistent to better than $2σ$ in all tomographic bins.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Consistency of cosmic shear measurements and joint cosmological constraints with external probes

We present a cosmic shear consistency analysis of the final data release from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy). By adopting three tiers of consistency metrics, we compare cosmological constraints between subsets of the KiDS-Legacy dataset split by redshift, angular scale, galaxy colour and spatial region. We also review a range of two-point cosmic shear statistics. With the data passing all our consistency metric tests, we demonstrate that KiDS-Legacy is the most internally consistent KiDS catalogue to date. In a joint cosmological analysis of KiDS-Legacy and DES Y3 cosmic shear, combined with data from the Pantheon+ Type Ia supernovae compilation and baryon acoustic oscillations from DESI Y1, we find constraints consistent with Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background with $S_8\equiv σ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.814^{+0.011}_{-0.012}$ and $σ_8 = 0.802^{+0.022}_{-0.018}$.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Covariance validation and the unified OneCovariance framework for projected large-scale structure observables

We introduce OneCovariance, an open-source software designed to accurately compute covariance matrices for an arbitrary set of two-point summary statistics across a variety of large-scale structure tracers. Utilising the halo model, we estimated the statistical properties of matter and biased tracer fields, incorporating all Gaussian, non-Gaussian, and super-sample covariance terms. The flexible configuration permits user-specific parameters, such as the complexity of survey geometry, the halo occupation distribution employed to define each galaxy sample, or the form of the real-space and/or Fourier space statistics to be analysed. We illustrate the capabilities of OneCovariance within the context of a cosmic shear analysis of the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-Legacy). Upon comparing our estimated covariance with measurements from mock data and calculations from independent software, we ascertain that OneCovariance achieves accuracy at the per cent level. When assessing the impact of ignoring complex survey geometry in the cosmic shear covariance computation, we discover misestimations at approximately the $10\%$ level for cosmic variance terms. Nonetheless, these discrepancies do not significantly affect the KiDS-Legacy recovery of cosmological parameters. We derive the cross-covariance between real-space correlation functions, bandpowers, and COSEBIs, facilitating future consistency tests among these three cosmic shear statistics. Additionally, we calculate the covariance matrix of photometric-spectroscopic galaxy clustering measurements, validating the jackknife covariance estimates for calibrating KiDS-Legacy redshift distributions. The OneCovariance can be found on GitHub, together with comprehensive documentation and examples.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

The fifth data release of the Kilo Degree Survey: Multi-epoch optical/NIR imaging covering wide and legacy-calibration fields

We present the final data release of the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-DR5), a public European Southern Observatory (ESO) wide-field imaging survey optimised for weak gravitational lensing studies. We combined matched-depth multi-wavelength observations from the VLT Survey Telescope and the VISTA Kilo-degree INfrared Galaxy (VIKING) survey to create a nine-band optical-to-near-infrared survey spanning $1347$ deg$^2$. The median $r$-band $5σ$ limiting magnitude is 24.8 with median seeing $0.7^{\prime\prime}$. The main survey footprint includes $4$ deg$^2$ of overlap with existing deep spectroscopic surveys. We complemented these data in DR5 with a targeted campaign to secure an additional $23$ deg$^2$ of KiDS- and VIKING-like imaging over a range of additional deep spectroscopic survey fields. From these fields, we extracted a catalogue of $126\,085$ sources with both spectroscopic and photometric redshift information, which enables the robust calibration of photometric redshifts across the full survey footprint. In comparison to previous releases, DR5 represents a $34\%$ areal extension and includes an $i$-band re-observation of the full footprint, thereby increasing the effective $i$-band depth by $0.4$ magnitudes and enabling multi-epoch science. Our processed nine-band imaging, single- and multi-band catalogues with masks, and homogenised photometry and photometric redshifts can be accessed through the ESO Archive Science Portal.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2025

Super sample covariance and the volume scaling of galaxy survey covariance matrices

Super sample covariance (SSC) is important when estimating covariance matrices using a set of mock catalogues for galaxy surveys. If the underlying cosmological simulations do not include the variation in background parameters appropriate for the simulation sizes, then the scatter between mocks will be missing the SSC component. The coupling between large and small modes due to non-linear structure growth makes this pernicious on small scales. We compare different methods for generating ensembles of mocks with SSC built in to the covariance, and contrast against methods where the SSC component is computed and added to the covariance separately. We find that several perturbative expansions, developed to derive background fluctuations, give similar results. We then consider scaling covariance matrices calculated for simulations of different volumes to improve the accuracy of the covariance matrix for a given computational time. On large scales, we find that the primary limitation is from the discrete number of modes contributing to the measured power spectrum, and we propose a new method for correcting this effect. Correct implementation of SSC and the effect of discrete mode numbers allows covariance matrices created from mocks to be scaled between volumes, potentially leading to a significant saving on computational resources when producing covariance matrices. We argue that a sub-percent match is difficult to achieve because of the effects of modes on scales between the box sizes, which cannot be easily included. Even so, when working in real space and cubic boxes, we show that a 3% match in the dark matter power spectrum covariance is achievable on scales of interest for current surveys scaling the simulation volume by 512x, costing a small fraction of the computational time of running full-sized simulations.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2025

KiDS-Legacy: Angular galaxy clustering from deep surveys with complex selection effects

Photometric galaxy surveys, despite their limited resolution along the line of sight, encode rich information about the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe thanks to the high number density and extensive depth of the data. However, the complicated selection effects in wide and deep surveys can potentially cause significant bias in the angular two-point correlation function (2PCF) measured from those surveys. In this paper, we measure the 2PCF from the newly published KiDS-Legacy sample. Given an $r$-band $5σ$ magnitude limit of $24.8$ and survey footprint of $1347$ deg$^2$, it achieves an excellent combination of sky coverage and depth for such a measurement. We find that complex selection effects, primarily induced by varying seeing, introduce over-estimation of the 2PCF by approximately an order of magnitude. To correct for such effects, we apply a machine learning-based method to recover an organised random (OR) that presents the same selection pattern as the galaxy sample. The basic idea is to find the selection-induced clustering of galaxies using a combination of self-organising maps (SOMs) and hierarchical clustering (HC). This unsupervised machine learning method is able to recover complicated selection effects without specifying their functional forms. We validate this SOM+HC method on mock deep galaxy samples with realistic systematics and selections derived from the KiDS-Legacy catalogue. Using mock data, we demonstrate that the OR delivers unbiased 2PCF cosmological parameter constraints, removing the $27σ$ offset in the galaxy bias parameter that is recovered when adopting uniform randoms. Blinded measurements on the real KiDS-Legacy data show that the corrected 2PCF is robust to the SOM+HC configuration near the optimal set-up suggested by the mock tests.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing Photometric Redshift Catalogs Through Color-Space Analysis: Application to KiDS-Bright Galaxies

We present a method to refine photometric redshift galaxy catalogs by comparing their color-space matching with overlapping spectroscopic calibration data. We focus on cases where photometric redshifts (photo-$z$) are estimated empirically. Identifying galaxies that are poorly represented in spectroscopic data is crucial, as their photo-$z$ may be unreliable due to extrapolation beyond the training sample. Our approach uses a self-organizing map (SOM) to project a multi-dimensional parameter space of magnitudes and colors onto a 2-D manifold, allowing us to analyze the resulting patterns as a function of various galaxy properties. Using SOM, we compare the Kilo-Degree Survey bright galaxy sample (KiDS-Bright), limited to $r<20$ mag, with various spectroscopic samples, including the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA). Our analysis reveals that GAMA under-represents KiDS-Bright at its faintest ($r\gtrsim19.5$) and highest-redshift ($z\gtrsim0.4$) ranges, however no strong trends in color or stellar mass. By incorporating additional spectroscopic data from the SDSS, 2dF, and early DESI, we identify SOM cells where photo-$z$ are estimated suboptimally. We derive a set of SOM-based criteria to refine the photometric sample and improve photo-$z$ statistics. For the KiDS-Bright sample, this improvement is modest: exclusion of the least represented 20% of the sample reduces photo-$z$ scatter by less than 10%. We conclude that GAMA, used for KiDS-Bright photo-$z$ training, is sufficiently representative for reliable redshift estimation across most of the color space. Future spectroscopic data from surveys such as DESI should be better suited for exploiting the full improvement potential of our method.

astro-ph.GA↗

arXiv2024

6x2pt: Forecasting gains from joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses with spectroscopic-photometric galaxy cross-correlations

We explore the enhanced self-calibration of photometric galaxy redshift distributions, $n(z)$, through the combination of up to six two-point functions. Our $\rm 3\times2pt$ configuration is comprised of photometric shear, spectroscopic galaxy clustering, and spectroscopic-photometric galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL). We further include spectroscopic-photometric cross-clustering; photometric GGL; and photometric auto-clustering, using the photometric shear sample as density tracer. We perform simulated likelihood forecasts of the cosmological and nuisance parameter constraints for Stage-III- and Stage-IV-like surveys. For the Stage-III-like case, we employ realistic but perturbed redshift distributions, and distinguish between "coherent" shifting in one direction, versus more internal scattering and full-shape errors. For perfectly known $n(z)$, a $\rm 6\times2pt$ analysis gains $\sim40\%$ in Figure of Merit (FoM) in the $S_8\equivσ_8\sqrt{Ω_{\rm m}/0.3}$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$ plane relative to the $\rm 3\times2pt$ analysis. If untreated, coherent and incoherent redshift errors lead to inaccurate inferences of $S_8$ and $Ω_{\rm m}$, respectively. Employing bin-wise scalar shifts $δ{z}_i$ in the tomographic mean redshifts reduces cosmological parameter biases, with a $\rm 6x2pt$ analysis constraining the shift parameters with $2-4$ times the precision of a photometric $\rm 3^{ph}\times2pt$ analysis. For the Stage-IV-like survey, a $\rm 6\times2pt$ analysis doubles the FoM($σ_8{-}Ω_{\rm m}$) compared to any $\rm 3\times2pt$ or $\rm 3^{ph}\times2pt$ analysis, and is only $8\%$ less constraining than if the $n(z)$ were perfectly known. A Gaussian mixture model for the $n(z)$ reduces mean-redshift errors and preserves the $n(z)$ shape. It also yields the most accurate and precise cosmological constraints for any $N\rm\times2pt$ configuration given $n(z)$ biases.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Cosmological measurements from the CMB and BAO are insensitive to the tail probability in the assumed likelihood

When fitting cosmological models to data, a Bayesian framework is commonly used, requiring assumptions on the form of the likelihood and model prior. In light of current tensions between different data, it is interesting to investigate the robustness of cosmological measurements to statistical assumptions about the likelihood distribution from which the data was drawn. We consider the impact of changes to the likelihood caused by uncertainties due to the finite number of mock catalogs used to estimate the covariance matrix, leading to the replacement of the standard Gaussian likelihood with a multivariate $t$-distribution. These changes to the likelihood have a negligible impact on recent cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing and baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements. We then extend our analysis to perform a sensitivity test on the Gaussian likelihoods typically adopted, considering how increasing the size of the tails of the likelihood (again using a $t$-distribution) affects cosmological inferences. For an open $Λ$CDM model constrained by BAO alone, we find that increasing the weight in the tails shifts and broadens the resulting posterior on the parameters, with a $\sim$0.2-0.4$σ$ effect on $Ω_Λ$ and $Ω_{\rm k}$. In contrast, the CMB temperature and polarization constraints in $Λ$CDM showed less than 0.03$σ$ changes in the parameters, except for $\{τ$, ln($10^{10}A_{\rm s})$, $σ_8$, $S_8$, $σ_8Ω_{\rm m}^{0.25}$, $z_{\rm re}$, $10^9A_{\rm s}e^{-2τ}\}$ which shifted by around 0.1-0.2$σ$. If we use solely $\ell < 30$ data, the amplitude $A_{\rm s} e^{-2τ}$ varies in the posterior mean by 0.7$σ$ and the error bars increase by 6%. We conclude, at least for current-generation CMB and BAO measurements, that uncertainties in the shape and tails of the likelihood do not contribute to current tensions.

astro-ph.CO↗

arXiv2024

Redshift evolution and covariances for joint lensing and clustering studies with DESI Y1

Galaxy-galaxy lensing (GGL) and clustering measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) dataset promise to yield unprecedented combined-probe tests of cosmology and the galaxy-halo connection. In such analyses, it is essential to identify and characterise all relevant statistical and systematic errors. In this paper, we forecast the covariances of DESI Y1 GGL+clustering measurements and characterise the systematic bias due to redshift evolution in the lens samples. Focusing on the projected clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing correlations, we compute a Gaussian analytical covariance, using a suite of N-body and log-normal simulations to characterise the effect of the survey footprint. Using the DESI One Percent Survey data, we measure the evolution of galaxy bias parameters for the DESI Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) samples. We find mild evolution in the LRGs in 0.4 < z < 0.8, subdominant compared to the expected statistical errors. For BGS, we find less evolution effects for brighter absolute magnitude cuts, at the cost of reduced sample size. We find that with a fiducial redshift bin width delta z = 0.1, evolution effects on GGL is negligible across all scales, all fiducial selection cuts, all fiducial redshift bins, given DESI Y1 sample size. Galaxy clustering is more sensitive to evolution due to the bias squared scaling. Nevertheless the redshift evolution effect is insignificant for clustering above the 1-halo scale of 0.1Mpc/h. For studies that wish to reliably access smaller scales, additional treatment of redshift evolution is likely needed. This study serves as a reference for GGL and clustering studies using the DESI Y1 sample

astro-ph.CO↗