arXiv2025
Microbiomes are complex systems comprised of many interacting species. Species can survive harsh or changing conditions by rapid adaptation, a process accelerated by the exchange of genetic material between different species through horizontal gene transfer. Conjugative plasmids are ubiquitous mobile genetic elements that mediate such exchanges both within and between species. Therefore, predicting whether a plasmid can invade and be maintained by a microbial community is critical, for example when assessing the risks of antimicrobial resistance gene spread in commensal or environmental microbiomes. However, existing theory developed to assist such predictions has generally focused on the balance among plasmid costs, benefits, and infection rates, overlooking other relevant factors such as the inherent dynamics and diversity of microbiomes. Here, we hypothesize that plasmid persistence in the absence of positive selection can arise purely from the heterogeneity present in large and diverse microbial communities. We introduce a generic model that integrates population-level dynamics with plasmid conjugation. Using this model, we show that we can predict plasmid maintenance, and that the probability for a plasmid to be maintained depends on traits of the plasmid, most importantly the conjugation rate, and the species abundance distribution of the community. Then, using both empirical abundance data and extensive numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the inherent randomness of ecological interactions and conjugation rates enables plasmid persistence -- even in the absence of positive selection. Our findings thus suggest that natural microbial communities are likely to maintain plasmids indefinitely, offering a new perspective on the spread, maintenance, and ubiquity of plasmids.