arXiv subjects

Shane Barratt

Publications and source records attributed to Shane Barratt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2021

Portfolio Construction Using Stratified Models

In this paper we develop models of asset return mean and covariance that depend on some observable market conditions, and use these to construct a trading policy that depends on these conditions, and the current portfolio holdings. After discretizing the market conditions, we fit Laplacian regularized stratified models for the return mean and covariance. These models have a different mean and covariance for each market condition, but are regularized so that nearby market conditions have similar models. This technique allows us to fit models for market conditions that have not occurred in the training data, by borrowing strength from nearby market conditions for which we do have data. These models are combined with a Markowitz-inspired optimization method to yield a trading policy that is based on market conditions. We illustrate our method on a small universe of 18 ETFs, using three well known and publicly available market variables to construct 1000 market conditions, and show that it performs well out of sample. The method, however, is general, and scales to much larger problems, that presumably would use proprietary data sources and forecasts along with publicly available data.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2021

Low Rank Forecasting

We consider the problem of forecasting multiple values of the future of a vector time series, using some past values. This problem, and related ones such as one-step-ahead prediction, have a very long history, and there are a number of well-known methods for it, including vector auto-regressive models, state-space methods, multi-task regression, and others. Our focus is on low rank forecasters, which break forecasting up into two steps: estimating a vector that can be interpreted as a latent state, given the past, and then estimating the future values of the time series, given the latent state estimate. We introduce the concept of forecast consistency, which means that the estimates of the same value made at different times are consistent. We formulate the forecasting problem in general form, and focus on linear forecasters, for which we propose a formulation that can be solved via convex optimization. We describe a number of extensions and variations, including nonlinear forecasters, data weighting, the inclusion of auxiliary data, and additional objective terms. We illustrate our methods with several examples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2021

Covariance Prediction via Convex Optimization

We consider the problem of predicting the covariance of a zero mean Gaussian vector, based on another feature vector. We describe a covariance predictor that has the form of a generalized linear model, i.e., an affine function of the features followed by an inverse link function that maps vectors to symmetric positive definite matrices. The log-likelihood is a concave function of the predictor parameters, so fitting the predictor involves convex optimization. Such predictors can be combined with others, or recursively applied to improve performance.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Learning Convex Optimization Models

A convex optimization model predicts an output from an input by solving a convex optimization problem. The class of convex optimization models is large, and includes as special cases many well-known models like linear and logistic regression. We propose a heuristic for learning the parameters in a convex optimization model given a dataset of input-output pairs, using recently developed methods for differentiating the solution of a convex optimization problem with respect to its parameters. We describe three general classes of convex optimization models, maximum a posteriori (MAP) models, utility maximization models, and agent models, and present a numerical experiment for each.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Differentiating Through a Cone Program

We consider the problem of efficiently computing the derivative of the solution map of a convex cone program, when it exists. We do this by implicitly differentiating the residual map for its homogeneous self-dual embedding, and solving the linear systems of equations required using an iterative method. This allows us to efficiently compute the derivative operator, and its adjoint, evaluated at a vector. These correspond to computing an approximate new solution, given a perturbation to the cone program coefficients (i.e., perturbation analysis), and to computing the gradient of a function of the solution with respect to the coefficients. Our method scales to large problems, with numbers of coefficients in the millions. We present an open-source Python implementation of our method that solves a cone program and returns the derivative and its adjoint as abstract linear maps; our implementation can be easily integrated into software systems for automatic differentiation.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Optimal Representative Sample Weighting

We consider the problem of assigning weights to a set of samples or data records, with the goal of achieving a representative weighting, which happens when certain sample averages of the data are close to prescribed values. We frame the problem of finding representative sample weights as an optimization problem, which in many cases is convex and can be efficiently solved. Our formulation includes as a special case the selection of a fixed number of the samples, with equal weights, i.e., the problem of selecting a smaller representative subset of the samples. While this problem is combinatorial and not convex, heuristic methods based on convex optimization seem to perform very well. We describe rsw, an open-source implementation of the ideas described in this paper, and apply it to a skewed sample of the CDC BRFSS dataset.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Multi-Period Liability Clearing via Convex Optimal Control

We consider the problem of determining a sequence of payments among a set of entities that clear (if possible) the liabilities among them. We formulate this as an optimal control problem, which is convex when the objective function is, and therefore readily solved. For this optimal control problem, we give a number of useful and interesting convex costs and constraints that can be combined in any way for different applications. We describe a number of extensions, for example to handle unknown changes in cash and liabilities, to allow bailouts, to find the minimum time to clear the liabilities, or to minimize the number of non-cleared liabilities, when fully clearing the liabilities is impossible.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

Convex Optimization Over Risk-Neutral Probabilities

We consider a collection of derivatives that depend on the price of an underlying asset at expiration or maturity. The absence of arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a risk-neutral probability distribution on the price; in particular, any risk neutral distribution can be interpreted as a certificate establishing that no arbitrage exists. We are interested in the case when there are multiple risk-neutral probabilities. We describe a number of convex optimization problems over the convex set of risk neutral price probabilities. These include computation of bounds on the cumulative distribution, VaR, CVaR, and other quantities, over the set of risk-neutral probabilities. After discretizing the underlying price, these problems become finite dimensional convex or quasiconvex optimization problems, and therefore are tractable. We illustrate our approach using real options and futures pricing data for the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2020

Automatic Repair of Convex Optimization Problems

Given an infeasible, unbounded, or pathological convex optimization problem, a natural question to ask is: what is the smallest change we can make to the problem's parameters such that the problem becomes solvable? In this paper, we address this question by posing it as an optimization problem involving the minimization of a convex regularization function of the parameters, subject to the constraint that the parameters result in a solvable problem. We propose a heuristic for approximately solving this problem that is based on the penalty method and leverages recently developed methods that can efficiently evaluate the derivative of the solution of a convex cone program with respect to its parameters. We illustrate our method by applying it to examples in optimal control and economics.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Fitting a Linear Control Policy to Demonstrations with a Kalman Constraint

We consider the problem of learning a linear control policy for a linear dynamical system, from demonstrations of an expert regulating the system. The standard approach to this problem is policy fitting, which fits a linear policy by minimizing a loss function between the demonstrations and the policy's outputs plus a regularization function that encodes prior knowledge. Despite its simplicity, this method fails to learn policies with low or even finite cost when there are few demonstrations. We propose to add an additional constraint to policy fitting, that the policy is the solution to some LQR problem, i.e., optimal in the stochastic control sense for some choice of quadratic cost. We refer to this constraint as a Kalman constraint. Policy fitting with a Kalman constraint requires solving an optimization problem with convex cost and bilinear constraints. We propose a heuristic method, based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), to approximately solve this problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that adding the Kalman constraint allows us to learn good, i.e., low cost, policies even when very few data are available.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Learning Convex Optimization Control Policies

Many control policies used in various applications determine the input or action by solving a convex optimization problem that depends on the current state and some parameters. Common examples of such convex optimization control policies (COCPs) include the linear quadratic regulator (LQR), convex model predictive control (MPC), and convex control-Lyapunov or approximate dynamic programming (ADP) policies. These types of control policies are tuned by varying the parameters in the optimization problem, such as the LQR weights, to obtain good performance, judged by application-specific metrics. Tuning is often done by hand, or by simple methods such as a crude grid search. In this paper we propose a method to automate this process, by adjusting the parameters using an approximate gradient of the performance metric with respect to the parameters. Our method relies on recently developed methods that can efficiently evaluate the derivative of the solution of a convex optimization problem with respect to its parameters. We illustrate our method on several examples.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

On the Differentiability of the Solution to Convex Optimization Problems

In this paper, we provide conditions under which one can take derivatives of the solution to convex optimization problems with respect to problem data. These conditions are (roughly) that Slater's condition holds, the functions involved are twice differentiable, and that a certain Jacobian matrix is non-singular. The derivation involves applying the implicit function theorem to the necessary and sufficient KKT system for optimality.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

A Distributed Method for Fitting Laplacian Regularized Stratified Models

Stratified models are models that depend in an arbitrary way on a set of selected categorical features, and depend linearly on the other features. In a basic and traditional formulation a separate model is fit for each value of the categorical feature, using only the data that has the specific categorical value. To this formulation we add Laplacian regularization, which encourages the model parameters for neighboring categorical values to be similar. Laplacian regularization allows us to specify one or more weighted graphs on the stratification feature values. For example, stratifying over the days of the week, we can specify that the Sunday model parameter should be close to the Saturday and Monday model parameters. The regularization improves the performance of the model over the traditional stratified model, since the model for each value of the categorical `borrows strength' from its neighbors. In particular, it produces a model even for categorical values that did not appear in the training data set. We propose an efficient distributed method for fitting stratified models, based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). When the fitting loss functions are convex, the stratified model fitting problem is convex, and our method computes the global minimizer of the loss plus regularization; in other cases it computes a local minimizer. The method is very efficient, and naturally scales to large data sets or numbers of stratified feature values. We illustrate our method with a variety of examples.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Minimizing a Sum of Clipped Convex Functions

We consider the problem of minimizing a sum of clipped convex functions; applications include clipped empirical risk minimization and clipped control. While the problem of minimizing the sum of clipped convex functions is NP-hard, we present some heuristics for approximately solving instances of these problems. These heuristics can be used to find good, if not global, solutions and appear to work well in practice. We also describe an alternative formulation, based on the perspective transformation, which makes the problem amenable to mixed-integer convex programming and yields computationally tractable lower bounds. We illustrate one of our heuristic methods by applying it to various examples and use the perspective transformation to certify that the solutions are relatively close to the global optimum. This paper is accompanied by an open-source implementation.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Differentiable Convex Optimization Layers

Recent work has shown how to embed differentiable optimization problems (that is, problems whose solutions can be backpropagated through) as layers within deep learning architectures. This method provides a useful inductive bias for certain problems, but existing software for differentiable optimization layers is rigid and difficult to apply to new settings. In this paper, we propose an approach to differentiating through disciplined convex programs, a subclass of convex optimization problems used by domain-specific languages (DSLs) for convex optimization. We introduce disciplined parametrized programming, a subset of disciplined convex programming, and we show that every disciplined parametrized program can be represented as the composition of an affine map from parameters to problem data, a solver, and an affine map from the solver's solution to a solution of the original problem (a new form we refer to as affine-solver-affine form). We then demonstrate how to efficiently differentiate through each of these components, allowing for end-to-end analytical differentiation through the entire convex program. We implement our methodology in version 1.1 of CVXPY, a popular Python-embedded DSL for convex optimization, and additionally implement differentiable layers for disciplined convex programs in PyTorch and TensorFlow 2.0. Our implementation significantly lowers the barrier to using convex optimization problems in differentiable programs. We present applications in linear machine learning models and in stochastic control, and we show that our layer is competitive (in execution time) compared to specialized differentiable solvers from past work.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Fitting a Kalman Smoother to Data

This paper considers the problem of fitting the parameters of a Kalman smoother to data. We formulate the Kalman smoothing problem with missing measurements as a constrained least squares problem and provide an efficient method to solve it based on sparse linear algebra. We then introduce the Kalman smoother tuning problem, which seeks to find parameters that achieve low prediction error on held out measurements. We derive a Kalman smoother auto-tuning algorithm, which is based on the proximal gradient method, that finds good, if not the best, parameters for a given dataset. Central to our method is the computation of the gradient of the prediction error with respect to the parameters of the Kalman smoother; we describe how to compute this at little to no additional cost. We demonstrate the method on population migration within the United States as well as data collected from an IMU+GPS system while driving. The paper is accompanied by an open-source implementation.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Least Squares Auto-Tuning

Least squares is by far the simplest and most commonly applied computational method in many fields. In almost all applications, the least squares objective is rarely the true objective. We account for this discrepancy by parametrizing the least squares problem and automatically adjusting these parameters using an optimization algorithm. We apply our method, which we call least squares auto-tuning, to data fitting.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Stochastic Control with Affine Dynamics and Extended Quadratic Costs

An extended quadratic function is a quadratic function plus the indicator function of an affine set, that is, a quadratic function with embedded linear equality constraints. We show that, under some technical conditions, random convex extended quadratic functions are closed under addition, composition with an affine function, expectation, and partial minimization, that is, minimizing over some of its arguments. These properties imply that dynamic programming can be tractably carried out for stochastic control problems with random affine dynamics and extended quadratic cost functions. While the equations for the dynamic programming iterations are much more complicated than for traditional linear quadratic control, they are well suited to an object-oriented implementation, which we describe. We also describe a number of known and new applications.

math.OC↗