arXiv subjects

Shaun Cole

Publications and source records attributed to Shaun Cole.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2026

Probing Dark Matter Substructures with Free-Form Modelling: A Case Study of the `Jackpot' Strong Lens

Characterising the population and internal structure of sub-galactic halos is critical for constraining the nature of dark matter. These halos can be detected near galaxies that act as strong gravitational lenses with extended arcs, as they perturb the shapes of the arcs. However, this method is subject to false-positive detections and systematic uncertainties, particularly degeneracies between an individual halo and larger-scale asymmetries in the distribution of lens mass. We present a new free-form lens modelling code, developed within the framework of the open-source software \texttt{PyAutoLens}, to address these challenges. Our method models mass perturbations that cannot be captured by parametric models as pixelized potential corrections and suppresses unphysical solutions via a Matérn regularisation scheme that is inspired by Gaussian process regression. This approach enables the recovery of diverse mass perturbations, including subhalos, line-of-sight halos, external shear, and multipole components that represent the complex angular mass distribution of the lens galaxy, such as boxiness/diskiness. Additionally, our fully Bayesian framework objectively infers hyperparameters associated with the regularisation of pixelized sources and potential corrections, eliminating the need for manual fine-tuning. By applying our code to the well-known `Jackpot' lens system, SLACS0946+1006, we robustly detect a highly concentrated subhalo that challenges the standard cold dark matter model. This study represents the first attempt to independently reveal the mass distribution of a subhalo using a fully free-form approach.

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arXiv2026

Illuminating the Physics of Cosmic Origin and Evolution: A UK Space Frontiers 2035 White Paper

Understanding the Universe's origins and evolution remains one of the most fundamental challenges in modern cosmology. This white paper explores three key science priorities in this field: unravelling the physics of cosmic inflation, investigating the accelerating expansion of the Universe, and precisely measuring the sum of the neutrino masses. Achieving these goals requires a dedicated survey to map the large-scale structure at high redshift in unprecedented detail. We describe how this can be achieved through a mission concept called SIRMOS, providing a high-throughput, highly multiplexed spectroscopic capability to obtain accurate redshifts for over 100 million galaxies over a wide sky area. Such a survey would leverage the deepest existing wide-area photometric catalogues for targeting, with spectra offering continuous 1.25-2.5~$μ$m wavelength coverage at moderate resolution, allowing precise redshift measurements in the $1<z<4$ range with minimal bias. We outline the scientific opportunities this presents. Recent years have seen significant advances in instrumentation, including digital micromirror devices, complex telescope mirrors, large detector arrays, and data processing pipelines. While these technologies have been demonstrated in terrestrial applications, such a survey is a unique opportunity to apply these proven capabilities in space to address fundamental questions in cosmology. Participation in such a mission will simultaneously deliver a compelling science case, help align UK Space Agency and STFC strategies, demonstrate the UK's growing capability in end-to-end space missions, and strengthen the national space economy through high-value industrial participation.

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arXiv2025

Transformational astrophysics and exoplanet science with Habitable Worlds Observatory's High Resolution Imager

Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) will be NASA's flagship space telescope of the 2040s, designed to search for life on other planets and to transform broad areas of astrophysics. NASA are seeking international partners, and the UK is well-placed to lead the design and construction of its imaging camera - which is likely to produce the mission's most visible public impact. Early participation in the mission would return investment to UK industry, and bring generational leadership for the UK in space science, space technology, and astrophysics.

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arXiv2025

The "Little Dark Dot": Evidence for Self-interacting Dark Matter in the Strong Lens SDSS J0946+1006?

Previous studies, based on precise modeling of a gravitationally lensing image, have identified what may be an extremely compact, dark perturber in the well-known lensing system SDSS J0946+1006 (the "Jackpot"). Its remarkable compactness challenges the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm. In this paper, we explore whether such a compact perturber could be explained as a core-collapse halo described by the self-interacting dark matter (SIDM) model. Using the isothermal Jeans method, we compute the density profiles of core-collapse halos across a range of masses. Our comparison with observations indicates that a core-collapse halo has an inner density profile and mass enclosed within 1 kpc that fit the data well, but only if the halo has a total mass $\sim10^{11}~{\rm M_{\odot}}$. While a halo of this mass should host a detectable galaxy, the current observational upper limit on the perturber's luminosity remains uncertain. Resolving whether or not the data support the presence of a core-collapse SIDM halo therefore requires future deep observations to measure its luminosity.

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arXiv2025

Analytical and EZmock covariance validation for the DESI 2024 results

The estimation of uncertainties in cosmological parameters is an important challenge in Large-Scale-Structure (LSS) analyses. For standard analyses such as Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and Full Shape, two approaches are usually considered. First: analytical estimates of the covariance matrix use Gaussian approximations and (nonlinear) clustering measurements to estimate the matrix, which allows a relatively fast and computationally cheap way to generate matrices that adapt to an arbitrary clustering measurement. On the other hand, sample covariances are an empirical estimate of the matrix based on en ensemble of clustering measurements from fast and approximate simulations. While more computationally expensive due to the large amount of simulations and volume required, these allow us to take into account systematics that are impossible to model analytically. In this work we compare these two approaches in order to enable DESI's key analyses. We find that the configuration space analytical estimate performs satisfactorily in BAO analyses and its flexibility in terms of input clustering makes it the fiducial choice for DESI's 2024 BAO analysis. On the contrary, the analytical computation of the covariance matrix in Fourier space does not reproduce the expected measurements in terms of Full Shape analyses, which motivates the use of a corrected mock covariance for DESI's Full Shape analysis.

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arXiv2025

Dynamical Dark Energy in light of the DESI DR2 Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations Measurements

Understanding whether cosmic acceleration arises from a cosmological constant or a dynamical component is a central goal of cosmology, and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) enables stringent tests with high-precision distance measurements. We analyze baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) and Data Release 2 (DR2), combined with Type Ia supernovae and a cosmic microwave background (CMB) distance prior. With the larger statistical power and wider redshift coverage of DR2, the preference for dynamical dark energy does not diminish relative to DR1. Using both a shape-function reconstruction and non-parametric approaches with a Horndeski-motivated correlation prior, we find that the dark-energy equation of state $w(z)$ varies with redshift. BAO data alone yield modest constraints, but in combination with independent supernova compilations and the CMB prior they strengthen the evidence for dynamics. Bayesian model comparison shows moderate support for departures from $Λ$CDM when multiple degrees of freedom in $w(z)$ are allowed, corresponding to $\approx3σ$ tension with $Λ$CDM (and higher for some data sets). Despite methodological differences, our results are consistent with companion DESI papers, underscoring the complementarity of approaches. Possible systematics remain under study; forthcoming DESI, \emph{Euclid}, and next-generation CMB data will provide decisive tests.

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arXiv2025

Exploring the interaction between the MW and LMC with a large sample of blue horizontal branch stars from the DESI survey

The Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) is a Milky Way (MW) satellite that is massive enough to gravitationally attract the MW disc and inner halo, causing significant motion of the inner MW with respect to the outer halo. In this work, we probe this interaction by constructing a sample of 9,866 blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars with radial velocities from the DESI spectroscopic survey out to 120 kpc from the Galactic centre. This is the largest spectroscopic set of BHB stars in the literature to date, and it contains four times more stars with Galactocentric distances beyond 50 kpc than previous BHB catalogues. Using the DESI BHB sample combined with SDSS BHBs, we measure the bulk radial velocity of stars in the outer halo and observe that the velocity in the Southern Galactic hemisphere is different by 3.7$σ$ from the North. Modelling the projected velocity field shows that its dipole component is directed at a point 22 degrees away from the LMC along its orbit, which we interpret as the travel direction of the inner MW. The velocity field includes a monopole term that is -24 km/s, which we refer to as compression velocity. This velocity is significantly larger than predicted by the current models of the MW and LMC interaction. This work uses DESI data from its first two years of observations, but we expect that with upcoming DESI data releases, the sample of BHB stars will increase and our ability to measure the MW-LMC interaction will improve significantly.

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arXiv2025

A New Measure of Assembly Bias using the Environment Dependence of the Luminosity Function

Assembly bias is the variation in the clustering of dark matter halos and galaxies that arises from correlations between the halo assembly history and the large-scale environment at fixed halo mass. In this work, we use the cosmological magneto-hydrodynamical simulation TNG300 to investigate how assembly bias affects the environment-dependent galaxy luminosity function. We measure the luminosity functions in bins of large-scale environment for the original simulated galaxy sample and for a shuffled sample, where the galaxies are randomly reassigned among halos of similar mass to remove assembly bias. By comparing them, we find distinct signatures, showing variations in the number of galaxies at the $\sim10\%$ level across all luminosities. Assembly bias increases the tendency of galaxies to reside in denser environments and further dilutes underdense regions, beyond the trends governed by halo mass. When separating by color, we see that assembly bias has a much bigger effect on red galaxies fainter than $\mathrm{M_r} - 5 \log{h} = -18.5$, which accounts for a $\sim20\%$ increase in the number of galaxies in the densest environment and a remarkable $50\%$ decrease in the least dense regions. The ratio of these measurements for the densest and least dense regions provides a significant assembly bias signal for the faint red galaxies, larger than a factor of two. Overall, our results provide a novel sensitive measure of assembly bias, offering valuable insight for modeling the effect and a potential new route to detect it in observations.

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arXiv2025

Dynamical analysis of stacked samples of asymmetric, non-static, self-gravitating systems

We use numerical simulations to explore biases that arise in dynamical estimates of the mean mass profile for a collection of galaxy clusters that have been stacked to make a composite. There are three types of bias. One arises from anisotropy of the kinematic pressure tensor and has been already well studied; a second arises from departures from equilibrium; and a third arises because of heterogeneity of the clusters used, from their individual non-sphericity, and because velocities used are measured with respect to centres that are, in general, accelerating. Here we focus on the latter two. We stack clusters to measure the pressure tensor and density profiles and then estimate the dynamical mass profile using the Jeans equation, and compare to the actual mean mass profile. The main result of this paper is an estimate of the bias, that can be used to correct the dynamical mass estimate, and we show how it depends on the cluster sample selection. We find that Jeans equation typically overestimates the true mass by about 20\% at the virial radius.

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arXiv2025

DESI Mg II Absorbers: Extinction Characteristics & Quasar Redshift Accuracy

In this paper, we study how absorption-line systems affect the spectra and redshifts of quasars (QSOs), using catalogs of Mg II absorbers from the early data release (EDR) and first data release (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We determine the reddening effect of an absorption system by fitting an un-reddened template spectrum to a sample of 50,674 QSO spectra that contain Mg II absorbers. We find that reddening caused by intervening absorbers (voff > 3500 km/s) has an average color excess of E(B-V) = 0.04 magnitudes. We find that the E(B-V) tends to be greater for absorbers at low redshifts, or those having Mg II absorption lines with higher equivalent widths, but shows no clear trend with voff for intervening systems. However, the E(B-V) of associated absorbers, those at voff < 3500 km/s, shows a strong trend with voff , increasing rapidly with decreasing voff and peaking (approximately 0.15 magnitudes) around voff = 0 km/s. We demonstrate that Mg II absorbers impact redshift estimation for QSOs by investigating the distributions of voff for associated absorbers. We find that at z > 1.5 these distributions broaden and bifurcate in a nonphysical manner. In an effort to mitigate this effect, we mask pixels associated with the Mg II absorption lines and recalculate the QSO redshifts. We find that we can recover voff populations in better agreement with those for z < 1.5 absorbers and in doing so typically shift background QSO redshifts by delta_z approximately equal to plus or minus 0.005.

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arXiv2025

Not so dark, not so dense: an alternative explanation for the lensing subhalo in SDSSJ0946+1006

Previous studies of the strong lens system SDSSJ0946+1006 have reported a dark matter subhalo with an unusually high central density, potentially challenging the standard cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm. However, these analyses assumed the subhalo to be completely dark, neglecting the possibility that it may host a faint galaxy. In this work, we revisit the lensing analysis of SDSSJ0946+1006, explicitly modelling the subhalo as a luminous satellite. Incorporating light from the perturber broadens the range of allowed subhalo properties, revealing solutions with significantly lower central densities that are consistent with CDM expectations. The inferred luminosity of the satellite also aligns with predictions from hydrodynamical simulations. While high-concentration subhaloes remain allowed, they are no longer statistically preferred. The luminous subhalo model yields a better fit to the data, while also offering a more plausible explanation that is in line with theoretical expectations. We validate our methodology using mock data, demonstrating that neglecting subhalo light can lead to inferred mass distributions that are artificially compact.

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arXiv2025

Nearby stellar substructures in the Galactic halo from DESI Milky Way Survey Year 1 Data Release

We report five nearby ($d_{\mathrm{helio}} < 5$ kpc) stellar substructures in the Galactic halo from a subset of 138,661 stars in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Milky Way Survey Year 1 Data Release. With an unsupervised clustering algorithm, HDBSCAN*, these substructures are independently identified in Integrals of Motion ($E_{\mathrm{tot}}$, $L_{\mathrm z}$, $\log{J_r}$, $\log{J_z}$) space and Galactocentric cylindrical velocity space ($V_{R}$, $V_ϕ$, $V_{z}$). We associate all identified clusters with known nearby substructures (Helmi streams, M18-Cand10/MMH-1, Sequoia, Antaeus, and ED-2) previously reported in various studies. With metallicities precisely measured by DESI, we confirm that the Helmi streams, M18-Cand10, and ED-2 are chemically distinct from local halo stars. We have characterised the chemodynamic properties of each dynamic group, including their metallicity dispersions, to associate them with their progenitor types (globular cluster or dwarf galaxy). Our approach for searching substructures with HDBSCAN* reliably detects real substructures in the Galactic halo, suggesting that applying the same method can lead to the discovery of new substructures in future DESI data. With more stars from future DESI data releases and improved astrometry from the upcoming Gaia Data Release 4, we will have a more detailed blueprint of the Galactic halo, offering a significant improvement in our understanding of the formation and evolutionary history of the Milky Way Galaxy.

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arXiv2025

Modelling the impact of quasar redshift errors on the full-shape analysis of correlations in the Lyman-$α$ forest

In preparation for the first cosmological measurements from the full-shape of the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest from DESI, we must carefully model all relevant systematics that might bias our analysis. It was shown in Youles et al. (2022) that random quasar redshift errors produce a smoothing effect on the mean quasar continuum in the Ly$α$ forest region. This in turn gives rise to spurious features in the Ly$α$ auto-correlation, and its cross-correlation with quasars. Using synthetic data sets based on the DESI survey, we confirm that the impact on BAO measurements is small, but that a bias is introduced to parameters which depend on the full-shape of our correlations. We combine a model of this contamination in the cross-correlation (Youles et al. 2022) with a new model we introduce here for the auto-correlation. These are parametrised by 3 parameters, which when included in a joint fit to both correlation functions, successfully eliminate any impact of redshift errors on our full-shape constraints. We also present a strategy for removing this contamination from real data, by removing $\sim$0.3% of correlating pairs.

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arXiv2025

The unabridged satellite luminosity function of Milky Way-like galaxies in $Λ$CDM: the contribution of "orphan" satellites

We study the abundance, radial distribution, and orbits of luminous satellites in simulations of MW-mass dark halos in the LCDM cosmology. We follow the evolution of a halo from the Aquarius project and the formation of its maximal satellite population with the GALFORM semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. This population consists of all subhalos able to form stars through efficient gas cooling before or after reionization, which effectively selects systems with peak circular velocities exceeding a critical threshold of roughly 15-20 km/s. The total number of luminous satellites is sensitive to the assumed redshift of reionization, but the shape of the GALFORM satellite stellar mass function is robust, peaking at the stellar mass (10^3Msun) of a halo just above the critical threshold. Subhalos are prone to artificial disruption in the tidal field of the main halo, with the number of surviving satellites increasing with resolution. Even in the highest resolution simulation (Aq-L1, with particle mass of 10^3Msun), a substantial number of satellite subhalos are disrupted, leaving behind ``orphan'' galaxies tracked in GALFORM by the subhalo's most-bound particle before disruption. When orphans are included (and the effects of tidal stripping on stars neglected), all simulations that adequately resolve the critical threshold yield a converged maximal satellite stellar mass function. Most orphans were accreted early, are found in the central regions of the main halo, and make up roughly half of all satellites in Aq-L1. Taking orphans into account there is no need to populate subhalos below the critical threshold with satellites to fit the radial distribution of MW satellites, as has been argued in recent work. Our model predicts that orphans dominate the ultra-faint population and that many more satellites with small apocentric radii should be detected in upcoming deep wide-field surveys.

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arXiv2025

Luminosity and stellar mass functions of faint photometric satellites around spectroscopic central galaxies from DESI Year-1 Bright Galaxy Survey

We measure the luminosity functions (LFs) and stellar mass functions (SMFs) of photometric satellite galaxies around spectroscopically identified isolated central galaxies (ICGs). The photometric satellites are from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys (DR9), while the spectroscopic ICGs are selected from the DESI Year-1 BGS sample. We can measure satellite LFs down to $r$-band absolute magnitudes of $M_{r,\mathrm{sat}}\sim-7$, around ICGs as small as $7.1<\log_{10}M_{\ast,\mathrm{ICG}}/\mathrm{M_\odot}<7.8$, with the stellar mass of ICGs measured by the DESI Fastspecfit pipeline. The satellite SMF can be measured down to $\log_{10}M_{\ast,\mathrm{sat}}/\mathrm{M_\odot}\sim 5.5$. Interestingly, we discover that the faint/low-mass end slopes of satellite LFs/SMFs become steeper with the decrease in the stellar masses of host ICGs, with smaller and nearby host ICGs capable of being used to probe their fainter satellites.. The steepest slopes are $-2.298\pm0.656$ and $-$2.888$\pm$0.916 for satellite LF and SMF, respectively. Detailed comparisons are performed between the satellite LFs around ICGs selected from DESI BGS or from the SDSS NYU-VAGC spectroscopic Main galaxies over $7.1<\log_{10}M_{\ast,\mathrm{ICG}}/\mathrm{M_\odot}<11.7$, showing reasonable agreements, but we show that the differences between DESI and SDSS stellar masses for ICGs play a role to affect the results. We also compare measurements based on DESI Fastspecfit and Cigale stellar masses used to bin ICGs, with the latter including the modeling of AGN based on WISE photometry, and we find good agreements in the measured satellite LFs by using either of the DESI stellar mass catalogs.

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arXiv2025

Neural Network-based model of galaxy power spectrum: Fast full-shape galaxy power spectrum analysis

We present a Neural Network based emulator for the galaxy redshift-space power spectrum that enables several orders of magnitude acceleration in the galaxy clustering parameter inference, while preserving 3$σ$ accuracy better than 0.5\% up to $k_{\mathrm{max}}$=0.25$h^{-1}Mpc$ within $Λ$CDM and around 0.5\% $w_0$-$w_a$CDM. Our surrogate model only emulates the galaxy bias-invariant terms of 1-loop perturbation theory predictions, these terms are then combined analytically with galaxy bias terms, counter-terms and stochastic terms in order to obtain the non-linear redshift space galaxy power spectrum. This allows us to avoid any galaxy bias prescription in the training of the emulator, which makes it more flexible. Moreover, we include the redshift $z \in [0,1.4]$ in the training which further avoids the need for re-training the emulator. We showcase the performance of the emulator in recovering the cosmological parameters of $Λ$CDM by analysing the suite of 25 AbacusSummit simulations that mimic the DESI Luminous Red Galaxies at $z=0.5$ and $z=0.8$, together as the Emission Line Galaxies at $z=0.8$. We obtain similar performance in all cases, demonstrating the reliability of the emulator for any galaxy sample at any redshift in $0 < z < 1.4$

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arXiv2025

Galaxy Mass Modelling from Multi-Wavelength JWST Strong Lens Analysis: Dark Matter Substructure, Angular Mass Complexity, or Both?

We analyze two galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses, SPT0418-47 and SPT2147-50, using JWST NIRCam imaging across multiple filters. To account for angular complexity in the lens mass distribution, we introduce multipole perturbations with orders $m=1, 3, 4$. Our results show strong evidence for angular mass complexity in SPT2147, with multipole strengths of 0.3-1.7 $\%$ for $m=3, 4$ and 2.4-9.5 $\%$ for $m=1$, while SPT0418 shows no such preference. We also test lens models that include a dark matter substructure, finding a strong preference for a substructure in SPT2147-50 with a Bayes factor (log-evidence change) of $\sim 60$ when multipoles are not included. Including multipoles reduces the Bayes factor to $\sim 11$, still corresponding to a $5σ$ detection of a subhalo with an NFW mass of $\log_{10}(M_{200}/M_{\odot}) = 10.87\substack{+0.53\\ -0.71}$. While SPT2147-50 may represent the fourth detection of a dark matter substructure in a strong lens, further analysis is needed to confirm that the signal is not due to systematics associated with the lens mass model.

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arXiv2024

A comparison of pre-existing $Λ$CDM predictions with the abundance of {\it JWST} galaxies at high redshift

Observations with the {\it James Webb Space Telescope} have revealed a high abundance of bright galaxies at redshift, $z\gtrsim 12$, which has been widely interpreted as conflicting with the $Λ$CDM model. In Cowley et al. (2018) predictions were made -- prior to the {\it JWST} observations -- for the expected abundance of these galaxies using the Durham semi-analytic galaxy formation model, {\sc galform}, which is known to produce a realistic population of galaxies at lower redshifts including the present day. Key to this model is the assumption of a ``top-heavy" initial mass function of stars formed in bursts (required to explain the number counts and redshift distribution of sub-millimetre galaxies). Here, we compare the rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions derived from {\it JWST} observations with those predicted by the Cowley et al. model up to $z=14$ and make further predictions for $z=16$. We find that below $z\sim 10$, the Cowley et al. predictions agree very well with observations, while agreement at $z\gtrsim12$ requires extending the model to take into account the timescale for the growth of obscuring dust grains at these very early times and its dependence on gas metallicity. We trace the evolution of these galaxies from $z=14$ to $z=0$ and find that their descendants typically reside in halos with a median mass $2.5\times 10^{13}\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. The stellar masses of the descendants range from $3.2\times 10^{6}\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ to $3.2\times 10^{11}\,h^{-1}\,\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$. Although these galaxies were all central galaxies at $z=14$, over half of their descendants end up as satellites in massive halos.

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