arXiv subjects

Shengwei Mei

Publications and source records attributed to Shengwei Mei.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Market-Information-Aware Gated-LoRA of Foundation Models for Transferable Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting

Electricity price forecasting is crucial for market participants but remains difficult because prices are volatile, market-specific, and closely tied to anticipated system conditions. Existing supervised methods depend largely on market-specific historical data, limiting their use in newly established or data-scarce markets. This paper proposes a market-information-aware adaptation framework that transfers the Chronos-2 time-series foundation model to day-ahead electricity price forecasting. It first constructs a multi-source market information (MSMI) interface aligning 7-day price context with pre-clearing supply--demand, reserve, maintenance, generator-capacity, and intertie variables, and then trains a source-domain gated low-rank adapter (LoRA), updating about $1\%$ of model parameters without target-market labels. The gate scales the frozen source adapter according to reserve-tightness and operating-state signals. A leave-one-market-out protocol is adopted for evaluating cross-market transferability. Experiments on four Chinese provincial day-ahead spot markets show that the proposed framework reduces the average MAE/RMSE by $6.24\%/7.99\%$ relative to market-information-aware zero-shot Chronos-2 and by $3.05\%/3.52\%$ relative to vanilla Source-LoRA. Experiments show that the gain is not reproduced by a learned global scalar or by random gate initialization, while the additional improvement over Source-LoRA is limited. These results suggest that market-structured inputs and state-dependent gated LoRA can provide a practical transfer path for data-scarce electricity markets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

An End-to-end Building Load Forecasting Framework with Patch-based Information Fusion Network and Error-weighted Adaptive Loss

Accurate building load forecasting plays a critical role in facilitating demand response aggregation and optimizing energy management. However, the complex temporal dependencies and high volatility of building loads limit the improvement of prediction accuracy. To this end, we propose a novel end-to-end building load forecasting framework. Specifically, the framework can be divided into two main stages. In the two-stage data preprocessing module enhanced by interpretable feature selection, we utilize the Local Outlier Factor (LOF) algorithm to accurately detect and correct anomalies in the original building load series. Furthermore, we employ SVM-SHAP feature analysis to quantify the impact of environmental variables, filtering out critical feature combinations to mitigate redundancy. In the building load forecasting module, we propose the patch-based information fusion network (PIF-Net). This model applies patching technology to process input series into local blocks, extracting temporal features through a shared Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network with residual connections. Subsequently, an information fusion module based on a customized gating mechanism integrates the ensemble hidden states to weight the importance of different temporal patches dynamically. Additionally, the framework is trained using a novel Error-weighted Adaptive Loss (EWAL) function. By combining a rational quadratic function and logarithmic loss to dynamically adjust penalty weights based on real-time prediction error distributions, EWAL significantly enhances the model's robustness under extreme load conditions. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed framework.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2025

A Data-driven Dynamic Temporal Correlation Modeling Framework for Renewable Energy Scenario Generation

Renewable energy power is influenced by the atmospheric system, which exhibits nonlinear and time-varying features. To address this, a dynamic temporal correlation modeling framework is proposed for renewable energy scenario generation. A novel decoupled mapping path is employed for joint probability distribution modeling, formulating regression tasks for both marginal distributions and the correlation structure using proper scoring rules to ensure the rationality of the modeling process. The scenario generation process is divided into two stages. Firstly, the dynamic correlation network models temporal correlations based on a dynamic covariance matrix, capturing the time-varying features of renewable energy while enhancing the interpretability of the black-box model. Secondly, the implicit quantile network models the marginal quantile function in a nonparametric, continuous manner, enabling scenario generation through marginal inverse sampling. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic correlation quantile network outperforms state-of-the-art methods in quantifying uncertainty and capturing dynamic correlation for short-term renewable energy scenario generation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

STDHL: Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Hypergraph Learning for Wind Power Forecasting

Leveraging spatio-temporal correlations among wind farms can significantly enhance the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting. However, the complex and dynamic nature of these correlations presents significant modeling challenges. To address this, we propose a spatio-temporal dynamic hypergraph learning (STDHL) model. This model uses a hypergraph structure to represent spatial features among wind farms. Unlike traditional graph structures, which only capture pair-wise node features, hypergraphs create hyperedges connecting multiple nodes, enabling the representation and transmission of higher-order spatial features. The STDHL model incorporates a novel dynamic hypergraph convolutional layer to model dynamic spatial correlations and a grouped temporal convolutional layer for channel-independent temporal modeling. The model uses spatio-temporal encoders to extract features from multi-source covariates, which are mapped to quantile results through a forecast decoder. Experimental results using the GEFCom dataset show that the STDHL model outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis highlights the critical role of spatio-temporal covariates in improving ultra-short-term forecasting accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Generation: A Super-Resolution Recurrent Diffusion Model

Driven by global climate change and the ongoing energy transition, the coupling between power supply capabilities and meteorological factors has become increasingly significant. Over the long term, accurately quantifying the power generation of renewable energy under the influence of climate change is essential for the development of sustainable power systems. However, due to interdisciplinary differences in data requirements, climate data often lacks the necessary hourly resolution to capture the short-term variability and uncertainties of renewable energy resources. To address this limitation, a super-resolution recurrent diffusion model (SRDM) has been developed to enhance the temporal resolution of climate data and model the short-term uncertainty. The SRDM incorporates a pre-trained decoder and a denoising network, that generates long-term, high-resolution climate data through a recurrent coupling mechanism. The high-resolution climate data is then converted into power value using the mechanism model, enabling the simulation of wind and photovoltaic (PV) power generation on future long-term scales. Case studies were conducted in the Ejina region of Inner Mongolia, China, using fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) and coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) data under two climate pathways: SSP126 and SSP585. The results demonstrate that the SRDM outperforms existing generative models in generating super-resolution climate data. Furthermore, the research highlights the estimation biases introduced when low-resolution climate data is used for power conversion.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

A capacity renting framework for shared energy storage considering peer-to-peer energy trading of prosumers with privacy protection

Shared energy storage systems (ESS) present a promising solution to the temporal imbalance between energy generation from renewable distributed generators (DGs) and the power demands of prosumers. However, as DG penetration rates rise, spatial energy imbalances become increasingly significant, necessitating the integration of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading within the shared ESS framework. Two key challenges emerge in this context: the absence of effective mechanisms and the greater difficulty for privacy protection due to increased data communication. This research proposes a capacity renting framework for shared ESS considering P2P energy trading of prosumers. In the proposed framework, prosumers can participate in P2P energy trading and rent capacities from shared ESS. A generalized Nash game is formulated to model the trading process and the competitive interactions among prosumers, and the variational equilibrium of the game is proved to be equivalent to the optimal solution of a quadratic programming (QP) problem. To address the privacy protection concern, the problem is solved using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with the Paillier cryptosystem. Finally, numerical simulations demonstrate the impact of P2P energy trading on the shared ESS framework and validate the effectiveness of the proposed privacy-preserving algorithm.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2022

Online Optimization in Power Systems with High Penetration of Renewable Generation: Advances and Prospects

Traditionally, offline optimization of power systems is acceptable due to the largely predictable loads and reliable generation. The increasing penetration of fluctuating renewable generation and Internet-of-Things devices allowing for fine-grained controllability of loads have led to the diminishing applicability of offline optimization in the power systems domain, and have redirected attention to online optimization methods. However, online optimization is a broad topic that can be applied in and motivated by different settings, operated on different time scales, and built on different theoretical foundations. This paper reviews the various types of online optimization techniques used in the power systems domain and aims to make clear the distinction between the most common techniques used. In particular, we introduce and compare four distinct techniques used covering the breadth of online optimization techniques used in the power systems domain, i.e., optimization-guided dynamic control, feedback optimization for single-period problems, Lyapunov-based optimization, and online convex optimization techniques for multi-period problems. Lastly, we recommend some potential future directions for online optimization in the power systems domain.

math.OC↗

arXiv2020

Approaching Prosumer Social Optimum via Energy Sharing with Proof of Convergence

With the advent of prosumers, the traditional centralized operation may become impracticable due to computational burden, privacy concerns, and conflicting interests. In this paper, an energy sharing mechanism is proposed to accommodate prosumers' strategic decision-making on their self-production and demand in the presence of capacity constraints. Under this setting, prosumers play a generalized Nash game. We prove main properties of the game: an equilibrium exists and is partially unique; no prosumer is worse off by energy sharing and the price-of-anarchy is 1-O(1/I) where I is the number of prosumers. In particular, the PoA tends to 1 with a growing number of prosumers, meaning that the resulting total cost under the proposed energy sharing approaches social optimum. We prove that the corresponding prosumers' strategies converge to the social optimal solution as well. Finally we propose a bidding process and prove that it converges to the energy sharing equilibrium under mild conditions. Illustrative examples are provided to validate the results.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

An Energy Sharing Game with Generalized Demand Bidding: Model and Properties

This paper proposes a novel energy sharing mechanism for prosumers who can produce and consume. Different from most existing works, the role of individual prosumer as a seller or buyer in our model is endogenously determined. Several desirable properties of the proposed mechanism are proved based on a generalized game-theoretic model. We show that the Nash equilibrium exists and is the unique solution of an equivalent convex optimization problem. The sharing price at the Nash equilibrium equals to the average marginal disutility of all prosumers. We also prove that every prosumer has the incentive to participate in the sharing market, and prosumers' total cost decreases with increasing absolute value of price sensitivity. Furthermore, the Nash equilibrium approaches the social optimal as the number of prosumers grows, and competition can improve social welfare.

math.OC↗

arXiv2019

Buy or Sell? Energy Sharing of Prosumers on Constrained Networks

The advent of intelligent agents who produce and consume energy by themselves has led the smart grid into the era of "prosumer", offering the energy system and customers a unique opportunity to revaluate/trade their spot energy via a sharing initiative. To this end, designing an appropriate sharing mechanism is an issue with crucial importance and has captured great attention. This paper addresses the prosumers' demand response problem via energy sharing. Under a general supply-demand function bidding scheme, a sharing market clearing procedure considering network constraints is proposed, which gives rise to a generalized Nash game. The existence and uniqueness of market equilibrium are proved in non-congested cases. When congestion occurs, infinitely much equilibrium may exist because the strategy spaces of prosumers are correlated. A price-regulation procedure is introduced in the sharing mechanism, which outcomes a unique equilibrium that is fair to all participants. Properties of the improved sharing mechanism, including the individual rational behaviors of prosumers and the components of sharing price, are revealed. When the number of prosumers increases, the proposed sharing mechanism approaches social optimum. Even with fixed number of resources, introducing competition can result in a decreasing social cost. Illustrative examples validate the theoretical results and provide more insights for the energy sharing research.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Asynchronous Distributed Power Control of Multi-Microgrid Systems Based on the Operator Splitting Approach

Forming (hybrid) AC/DC microgrids (MGs) has become a promising manner for the interconnection of various kinds of distributed generators that are inherently AC or DC electric sources. This paper addresses the distributed asynchronous power control problem of hybrid microgrids, considering imperfect communication due to non-identical sampling rates and communication delays. To this end, we first formulate the optimal power control problem of MGs and devise a synchronous algorithm. Then, we analyze the impact of asynchrony on optimal power control and propose an asynchronous iteration algorithm based on the synchronous version. By introducing a random clock at each iteration, different types of asynchrony are fitted into a unified framework, where the asynchronous algorithm is converted into a fixed-point problem based on the operator splitting method, leading to a convergence proof. We further provide an upper bound estimation of the time delay in the communication. Moreover, the real-time implementation of the proposed algorithm in both AC and DC MGs is introduced. By taking the power system as a solver, the controller is simplified by reducing one order and the power loss can be considered. Finally, a benchmark MG is utilized to verify the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed algorithm.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2018

Resilience Control of DC Shipboard Power Systems

Direct current (DC) network has been recognized as a promising technique, especially for shipboard power systems (SPSs). Fast resilience control is required for an SPS to survive after faults. Towards this end, this paper proposes the indices of survivability and functionality, based on which a two-phase resilience control method is derived. The on/off status of loads are determined in the first phase to maximize survivability, while the functionality of supplying loads are maximized in the second phase. Based on a comprehensive model of a DC shipboard power systems (DC-SPS), the two-phase method renders two mixed-integer non-convex problems. To make the problems tractable, we develop second-order-cone-based convex relaxations, thus converting the problems into mixed-integer convex problems. Though this approach does not necessarily guarantee feasible, hence global, solutions to the original non-convex formulations, we provide additional mild assumptions, which ensures that the convex relaxations are exact when line constraints are not binding. In the case of inexactness, we provide a simple heuristic approach to ensure feasible solutions. Numerical tests empirically confirm the efficacy of the proposed method.

math.OC↗

arXiv2018

Distributed Load-Side Control: Coping with Variation of Renewable Generations

This paper addresses the distributed frequency control problem in a multi-area power system taking into account of unknown time-varying power imbalance. Particularly, fast controllable loads are utilized to restore system frequency under changing power imbalance in an optimal manner. The imbalanced power causing frequency deviation is decomposed into three parts: a known constant part, an unknown low-frequency variation and a high-frequency residual. The known steady part is usually the prediction of power imbalance. The variation may result from the fluctuation of renewable resources, electric vehicle charging, etc., which is usually unknown to operators. The high-frequency residual is usually unknown and treated as an external disturbance. Correspondingly, in this paper, we resolve the following three problems in different timescales: 1) allocate the steady part of power imbalance economically; 2) mitigate the effect of unknown low-frequency power variation locally; 3) attenuate unknown high-frequency disturbances. To this end, a distributed controller combining consensus method with adaptive internal model control is proposed. We first prove that the closed-loop system is asymptotically stable and converges to the optimal solution of an optimization problem if the external disturbance is not included. We then prove that the power variation can be mitigated accurately. Furthermore, we show that the closed-loop system is robust against both parameter uncertainty and external disturbances. The New England system is used to verify the efficacy of our design.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2017

Paving the Way to Smart Micro Energy Internet: Concepts, Design Principles, and Engineering Practices

The energy internet is one of the most promising future energy infrastructures that could both enhance energy efficiency and improve its operating flexibility. Analogous to the micro-grid, the micro energy internet emphasizes the distribution level and demand side. This paper proposes concepts and design principles of a smart micro energy internet for accommodating micro-grids, distributed poly-generation systems, energy storage facilities, and associated energy distribution infrastructures. Since the dispatch and control system of the smart micro energy internet is responsible for external disturbances, it should be able to approach a satisfactory operating point while supporting multiple criteria, such as safety, economy, and environmental protection. To realize the vision of a smart micro energy internet, an engineering game theory based energy management system with self-approaching-optimum capability is investigated. Based on the proposed concepts, design principles, and energy management system, this paper presents a prototype of China's first conceptual solar-based smart micro energy internet, established in Qinghai University.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Mitigating Blackout Risk via Maintenance : Inference from Simulation Data

Whereas maintenance has been recognized as an important and effective means for risk management in power systems, it turns out to be intractable if cascading blackout risk is considered due to the extremely high computational complexity. In this paper, based on the inference from the blackout simulation data, we propose a methodology to efficiently identify the most influential component(s) for mitigating cascading blackout risk in a large power system. To this end, we first establish an analytic relationship between maintenance strategies and blackout risk estimation by inferring from the data of cascading outage simulations. Then we formulate the component maintenance decision-making problem as a nonlinear 0-1 programming. Afterwards, we quantify the credibility of blackout risk estimation, leading to an adaptive method to determine the least required number of simulations, which servers as a crucial parameter of the optimization model. Finally, we devise two heuristic algorithms to find approximate optimal solutions to the model with very high efficiency. Numerical experiments well manifest the efficacy and high efficiency of our methodology.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Quantifying the Influence of Component Failure Probability on Cascading Blackout Risk

The risk of cascading blackouts greatly relies on failure probabilities of individual components in power grids. To quantify how component failure probabilities (CFP) influences blackout risk (BR), this paper proposes a sample-induced semi-analytic approach to characterize the relationship between CFP and BR. To this end, we first give a generic component failure probability function (CoFPF) to describe CFP with varying parameters or forms. Then the exact relationship between BR and CoFPFs is built on the abstract Markov-sequence model of cascading outages. Leveraging a set of samples generated by blackout simulations, we further establish a sample-induced semi-analytic mapping between the unbiased estimation of BR and CoFPFs. Finally, we derive an efficient algorithm that can directly calculate the unbiased estimation of BR when the CoFPFs change. Since no additional simulations are required, the algorithm is computationally scalable and efficient. Numerical experiments well confirm the theory and the algorithm.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Impacts and Benefits of UPFC to Wind Power Integration in Unit Commitment

Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) is recognized as the most powerful flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) device for power system operation. This paper addresses how UPFC explores the transmission flexibility and facilitates the integration of uncertain and volatile wind power generation. To this end, a comprehensive unit commitment (UC) model with UPFC and uncertain wind power generation is proposed. Then, some metrics are introduced to evaluate the impacts of UPFC on the reliability, security and economy of power system operation. Further, different dispatch strategies of UPFC are compared to provide helpful guidances on making full use of UPFC to hedge against uncertainties. In addition, facing the challenging mixed-integer non-linear non-convex problems, approximate models are proposed to provide a starting point to solve the problems efficiently. All these models are easy to adapt to other types of FACTS devices. Illustrative numerical results are provided.

math.OC↗

arXiv2017

Efficient Simulation of Temperature Evolution of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on Analytical Solution and NWP

Transmission lines are vital components in power systems. Tripping of transmission lines caused by over-temperature is a major threat to the security of system operations, so it is necessary to efficiently simulate line temperature under both normal operation conditions and foreseen fault conditions. Existing methods based on thermal-steady-state analyses cannot reflect transient temperature evolution, and thus cannot provide timing information needed for taking remedial actions. Moreover, conventional numerical method requires huge computational efforts and barricades system-wide analysis. In this regard, this paper derives an approximate analytical solution of transmission-line temperature evolution enabling efficient analysis on multiple operation states. Considering the uncertainties in environmental parameters, the region of over-temperature is constructed in the environmental parameter space to realize the over-temperature risk assessment in both the planning stage and real-time operations. A test on a typical conductor model verifies the accuracy of the approximate analytical solution. Based on the analytical solution and numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, an efficient simulation method for temperature evolution of transmission systems under multiple operation states is proposed. As demonstrated on an NPCC 140-bus system, it achieves over 1000 times of efficiency enhancement, verifying its potentials in online risk assessment and decision support.

cs.CE↗