arXiv subjects

Sherrie Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Sherrie Wang.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

SolarBench: A global solar energy nowcasting benchmark

As the share of solar power grows, nowcasting weather-driven solar variability becomes critical for reliable energy system operation. State-of-the-art approaches increasingly apply deep learning to sky camera and geostationary satellite observations, but fragmented datasets and inconsistent evaluation make it difficult to determine whether reported improvements generalize across climates, cloud regimes, and photovoltaic (PV) systems. Here we introduce SolarBench, an open global benchmark for image-based solar nowcasting. SolarBench harmonizes more than six million sky and satellite images from 11 diverse sites spanning a decade, together with irradiance or PV output and auxiliary atmospheric data. An accompanying toolbox supports reproducible data access, processing, model development, and evaluation. Using SolarBench, we benchmark representative models and reveal a gap between average forecasting accuracy and the ability to capture rapid solar fluctuations. We further quantify predictability across cloud regimes and demonstrate data-efficient adaptation to new PV systems. SolarBench provides an extensible foundation for fair comparison and methodological innovation in solar nowcasting.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Partial recovery of meter-scale surface weather

Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale variability reflects irreducibly chaotic dynamics or contains a component predictable from surface characteristics and large-scale atmospheric forcing. Here we show that a substantial, physically coherent component of meter-scale near-surface weather is statistically recoverable from existing observations. By conditioning coarse atmospheric state on sparse surface station measurements and high-resolution Earth observation data, we infer spatially continuous fields of near-surface wind, temperature, and humidity at 10 m resolution across the contiguous United States. Relative to ERA5, the inferred fields reduce wind error by 29% and temperature and dewpoint error by 6%, while explaining substantially more spatial variance at fixed time steps. They also exhibit physically interpretable structure, including urban heat islands, evapotranspiration-driven humidity contrasts, and wind speed differences across land cover types. Our findings expand the frontier of weather modeling by demonstrating a computationally feasible approach to continental-scale meter-resolution inference. More broadly, they illustrate how conditioning coarse dynamical models on static fine-scale features can reveal previously unresolved components of the Earth system.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Conformal Prediction Sets for Instance Segmentation

Current instance segmentation models achieve high performance on average predictions, but lack principled uncertainty quantification: their outputs are not calibrated, and there is no guarantee that a predicted mask is close to the ground truth. To address this limitation, we introduce a conformal prediction algorithm to generate adaptive confidence sets for instance segmentation. Given an image and a pixel coordinate query, our algorithm generates a confidence set of instance predictions for that pixel, with a provable guarantee for the probability that at least one of the predictions has high Intersection-Over-Union (IoU) with the true object instance mask. We apply our algorithm to instance segmentation examples in agricultural field delineation, cell segmentation, and vehicle detection. Empirically, we find that our prediction sets vary in size based on query difficulty and attain the target coverage, outperforming baselines (naive best parameter and morphological dilation-based methods). We provide versions of the algorithm with asymptotic and finite sample guarantees. Our work is the first to capture structural uncertainty in instance segmentation by constructing confidence sets of diverse segmentation predictions.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Conformal Prediction for Generative Models via Adaptive Cluster-Based Density Estimation

Conditional generative models map input variables to complex, high-dimensional distributions, enabling realistic sample generation in a diverse set of domains. A critical challenge with these models is the absence of calibrated uncertainty, which undermines trust in individual outputs for high-stakes applications. To address this issue, we propose a systematic conformal prediction approach tailored to conditional generative models, leveraging density estimation on model-generated samples. We introduce a novel method called CP4Gen, which utilizes clustering-based density estimation to construct prediction sets that are less sensitive to outliers, more interpretable, and of lower structural complexity than existing methods. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and real-world applications, including climate emulation tasks, demonstrate that CP4Gen consistently achieves superior performance in terms of prediction set volume and structural simplicity. Our approach offers practitioners a powerful tool for uncertainty estimation associated with conditional generative models, particularly in scenarios demanding rigorous and interpretable prediction sets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Observation-driven correction of numerical weather prediction for marine winds

Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We present an observation-informed correction approach for global numerical weather prediction (NWP) of marine winds. Rather than forecasting winds directly, we learn local correction patterns by assimilating the latest in-situ observations to adjust the Global Forecast System (GFS) output. We propose ORCA (Observation-informed Real-time Correction with Attention), a transformer-based deep learning architecture that (i) handles irregular and time-varying observation sets through masking and set-based attention mechanisms, (ii) conditions predictions on recent observation--forecast pairs via cross-attention, and (iii) employs cyclical time embeddings and coordinate-aware location representations to enable single-pass inference at arbitrary spatial coordinates. We evaluate ORCA over the Atlantic Ocean using observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) as reference. ORCA reduces GFS 10-meter wind error at all lead times up to 48 hours, achieving 45% improvement at 1-hour lead time and 13% improvement at 48-hour lead time. Spatial analyses reveal the most persistent improvements along coastlines and shipping routes, where observations are most abundant. The tokenized architecture naturally accommodates heterogeneous observing platforms (ships, buoys, tide gauges, and coastal stations) and produces both site-specific predictions and basin-scale gridded products in a single forward pass. These results demonstrate a practical, low-latency post-processing approach that complements NWP by learning to correct systematic forecast errors.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Masked Mineral Modeling: Continent-Scale Mineral Prospecting via Geospatial Infilling

Minerals play a critical role in the advanced energy technologies necessary for decarbonization, but characterizing mineral deposits hidden underground remains costly and challenging. Inspired by recent progress in generative modeling, we develop a learning method which infers the locations of minerals by masking and infilling geospatial maps of resource availability. We demonstrate this technique using mineral data for the conterminous United States, and train performant models, with the best achieving Dice coefficients of $0.31 \pm 0.01$ and recalls of $0.22 \pm 0.02$ on test data at 1$\times$1 mi$^2$ spatial resolution. One major advantage of our approach is that it can easily incorporate auxiliary data sources for prediction which may be more abundant than mineral data. We highlight the capabilities of our model by adding input layers derived from geophysical sources, along with a nation-wide ground survey of soils originally intended for agronomic purposes. We find that employing such auxiliary features can improve inference performance, while also enabling model evaluation in regions with no recorded minerals.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Invariant Features for Global Crop Type Classification

Accurate global crop type mapping supports agricultural monitoring and food security, yet remains limited by the scarcity of labeled data in many regions. A key challenge is enabling models trained in one geography to generalize reliably to others despite shifts in climate, phenology, and spectral characteristics. In this work, we show that geographic transfer in crop classification is primarily governed by the ability to learn invariant structure in multispectral time series. To systematically study this, we introduce CropGlobe, a globally distributed benchmark dataset of 300,000 samples spanning eight countries and five continents, and define progressively harder transfer settings from cross-country to cross-hemisphere. Across all settings, we find that simple spectral-temporal representations outperform both handcrafted features and modern geospatial foundation model embeddings. We propose CropNet, a lightweight convolutional architecture that jointly convolves across spectral and temporal dimensions to learn invariant crop signatures. Despite its simplicity, CropNet consistently outperforms larger transformer-based and foundation-model approaches under geographic domain shift. To further improve robustness to geographic variation, we introduce augmentations that simulate shifts in crop phenology and reflectance. Combined with CropNet, this yields substantial gains under large domain shifts. Our results demonstrate that inductive bias toward joint spectral-temporal structure is more critical for transfer than model scale or pretraining, pointing toward a scalable and data-efficient paradigm for worldwide agricultural mapping. Data and code are available at https://github.com/x-ytong/CropNet/.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Prediction-Powered Inference with Imputed Covariates and Nonuniform Sampling

Machine learning models are increasingly used to produce predictions that serve as input data in subsequent statistical analyses. For example, computer vision predictions of economic and environmental indicators based on satellite imagery are used in downstream regressions; similarly, language models are widely used to approximate human ratings and opinions in social science research. However, failure to properly account for errors in the machine learning predictions renders standard statistical procedures invalid. Prior work uses what we call the Predict-Then-Debias estimator to give valid confidence intervals when machine learning algorithms impute missing variables, assuming a small complete sample from the population of interest. We expand the scope by introducing bootstrap confidence intervals that apply when the complete data is a nonuniform (i.e., weighted, stratified, or clustered) sample and to settings where an arbitrary subset of features is imputed. Importantly, the method can be applied to many settings without requiring additional calculations. We prove that these confidence intervals are valid under no assumptions on the quality of the machine learning model and are no wider than the intervals obtained by methods that do not use machine learning predictions.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2024

Local Off-Grid Weather Forecasting with Multi-Modal Earth Observation Data

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, forecasts produced by machine learning models or numerical weather prediction systems are typically generated on large-scale regular grids, where direct downscaling fails to capture fine-grained, near-surface weather patterns. In this work, we propose a multi-modal transformer model trained end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. Our model directly combines local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature, dewpoint) with gridded forecasts to produce locally accurate predictions at various lead times. Multiple data modalities are collected and concatenated at station-level locations, treated as a token at each station. Using self-attention, the token corresponding to the target location aggregates information from its neighboring tokens. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. They also reveal that direct input of station data provides a phase shift in local weather forecasting accuracy, reducing the prediction error by up to 80% compared to pure gridded data based models. This approach demonstrates how to bridge the gap between large-scale weather models and locally accurate forecasts to support high-stakes, location-sensitive decision-making.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Regression coefficient estimation from remote sensing maps

Regressions are commonly used in environmental science and economics to identify causal or associative relationships between variables. In these settings, remote sensing-derived map products increasingly serve as sources of variables, enabling estimation of effects such as the impact of conservation zones on deforestation. However, the quality of map products varies, and -- because maps are outputs of complex machine learning algorithms that take in a variety of remotely sensed variables as inputs -- errors are difficult to characterize. Thus, population-level estimators from such maps may be biased. In this paper, we apply prediction-powered inference (PPI) to estimate regression coefficients relating a response variable and covariates to each other. PPI is a method that estimates parameters of interest by using a small amount of randomly sampled ground truth data to correct for bias in large-scale remote sensing map products. Applying PPI across multiple remote sensing use cases in regression coefficient estimation, we find that it results in estimates that are (1) more reliable than using the map product as if it were 100% accurate and (2) have lower uncertainty than using only the ground truth sample data and ignoring the map product. Empirically, we observe effective sample size increases of up to 17-fold using PPI compared to only using ground truth data. This is the first work to estimate remote sensing regression coefficients without assumptions on the structure of map product errors. Data and code are available at https://github.com/Earth-Intelligence-Lab/uncertainty-quantification.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2024

Combining Deep Learning and Street View Imagery to Map Smallholder Crop Types

Accurate crop type maps are an essential source of information for monitoring yield progress at scale, projecting global crop production, and planning effective policies. To date, however, crop type maps remain challenging to create in low and middle-income countries due to a lack of ground truth labels for training machine learning models. Field surveys are the gold standard in terms of accuracy but require an often-prohibitively large amount of time, money, and statistical capacity. In recent years, street-level imagery, such as Google Street View, KartaView, and Mapillary, has become available around the world. Such imagery contains rich information about crop types grown at particular locations and times. In this work, we develop an automated system to generate crop type ground references using deep learning and Google Street View imagery. The method efficiently curates a set of street view images containing crop fields, trains a model to predict crop type by utilizing weakly-labelled images from disparate out-of-domain sources, and combines predicted labels with remote sensing time series to create a wall-to-wall crop type map. We show that, in Thailand, the resulting country-wide map of rice, cassava, maize, and sugarcane achieves an accuracy of 93%. We publicly release the first-ever crop type map for all of Thailand 2022 at 10m-resolution with no gaps. To our knowledge, this is the first time a 10m-resolution, multi-crop map has been created for any smallholder country. As the availability of roadside imagery expands, our pipeline provides a way to map crop types at scale around the globe, especially in underserved smallholder regions.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

Good at captioning, bad at counting: Benchmarking GPT-4V on Earth observation data

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on complex tasks involving visual input with natural language instructions. However, it remains unclear to what extent capabilities on natural images transfer to Earth observation (EO) data, which are predominantly satellite and aerial images less common in VLM training data. In this work, we propose a comprehensive benchmark to gauge the progress of VLMs toward being useful tools for EO data by assessing their abilities on scene understanding, localization and counting, and change detection tasks. Motivated by real-world applications, our benchmark includes scenarios like urban monitoring, disaster relief, land use, and conservation. We discover that, although state-of-the-art VLMs like GPT-4V possess extensive world knowledge that leads to strong performance on open-ended tasks like location understanding and image captioning, their poor spatial reasoning limits usefulness on object localization and counting tasks. Our benchmark will be made publicly available at https://vleo.danielz.ch/ and on Hugging Face at https://huggingface.co/collections/mit-ei/vleo-benchmark-datasets-65b789b0466555489cce0d70 for easy model evaluation.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Taking it further: leveraging pseudo labels for field delineation across label-scarce smallholder regions

Transfer learning allows for resource-efficient geographic transfer of pre-trained field delineation models. However, the scarcity of labeled data for complex and dynamic smallholder landscapes, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, remains a major bottleneck for large-area field delineation. This study explores opportunities of using sparse field delineation pseudo labels for fine-tuning models across geographies and sensor characteristics. We build on a FracTAL ResUNet trained for crop field delineation in India (median field size of 0.24 ha) and use this pre-trained model to generate pseudo labels in Mozambique (median field size of 0.06 ha). We designed multiple pseudo label selection strategies and compared the quantities, area properties, seasonal distribution, and spatial agreement of the pseudo labels against human-annotated training labels (n = 1,512). We then used the human-annotated labels and the pseudo labels for model fine-tuning and compared predictions against human field annotations (n = 2,199). Our results indicate i) a good baseline performance of the pre-trained model in both field delineation and field size estimation, and ii) the added value of regional fine-tuning with performance improvements in nearly all experiments. Moreover, we found iii) substantial performance increases when using only pseudo labels (up to 77% of the IoU increases and 68% of the RMSE decreases obtained by human labels), and iv) additional performance increases when complementing human annotations with pseudo labels. Pseudo labels can be efficiently generated at scale and thus facilitate domain adaptation in label-scarce settings. The workflow presented here is a stepping stone for overcoming the persisting data gaps in heterogeneous smallholder agriculture of Sub-Saharan Africa, where labels are commonly scarce.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2022

Annual field-scale maps of tall and short crops at the global scale using GEDI and Sentinel-2

Crop type maps are critical for tracking agricultural land use and estimating crop production. Remote sensing has proven an efficient and reliable tool for creating these maps in regions with abundant ground labels for model training, yet these labels remain difficult to obtain in many regions and years. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) spaceborne lidar instrument, originally designed for forest monitoring, has shown promise for distinguishing tall and short crops. In the current study, we leverage GEDI to develop wall-to-wall maps of short vs tall crops on a global scale at 10 m resolution for 2019-2021. Specifically, we show that (1) GEDI returns can reliably be classified into tall and short crops after removing shots with extreme view angles or topographic slope, (2) the frequency of tall crops over time can be used to identify months when tall crops are at their peak height, and (3) GEDI shots in these months can then be used to train random forest models that use Sentinel-2 time series to accurately predict short vs. tall crops. Independent reference data from around the world are then used to evaluate these GEDI-S2 maps. We find that GEDI-S2 performed nearly as well as models trained on thousands of local reference training points, with accuracies of at least 87% and often above 90% throughout the Americas, Europe, and East Asia. Systematic underestimation of tall crop area was observed in regions where crops frequently exhibit low biomass, namely Africa and South Asia, and further work is needed in these systems. Although the GEDI-S2 approach only differentiates tall from short crops, in many landscapes this distinction goes a long way toward mapping the main individual crop types. The combination of GEDI and Sentinel-2 thus presents a very promising path towards global crop mapping with minimal reliance on ground data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2022

Unlocking large-scale crop field delineation in smallholder farming systems with transfer learning and weak supervision

Crop field boundaries aid in mapping crop types, predicting yields, and delivering field-scale analytics to farmers. Recent years have seen the successful application of deep learning to delineating field boundaries in industrial agricultural systems, but field boundary datasets remain missing in smallholder systems due to (1) small fields that require high resolution satellite imagery to delineate and (2) a lack of ground labels for model training and validation. In this work, we combine transfer learning and weak supervision to overcome these challenges, and we demonstrate the methods' success in India where we efficiently generated 10,000 new field labels. Our best model uses 1.5m resolution Airbus SPOT imagery as input, pre-trains a state-of-the-art neural network on France field boundaries, and fine-tunes on India labels to achieve a median Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.86 in India. If using 4.8m resolution PlanetScope imagery instead, the best model achieves a median IoU of 0.72. Experiments also show that pre-training in France reduces the number of India field labels needed to achieve a given performance level by as much as $20\times$ when datasets are small. These findings suggest our method is a scalable approach for delineating crop fields in regions of the world that currently lack field boundary datasets. We publicly release the 10,000 labels and delineation model to facilitate the creation of field boundary maps and new methods by the community.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2021

SustainBench: Benchmarks for Monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals with Machine Learning

Progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has been hindered by a lack of data on key environmental and socioeconomic indicators, which historically have come from ground surveys with sparse temporal and spatial coverage. Recent advances in machine learning have made it possible to utilize abundant, frequently-updated, and globally available data, such as from satellites or social media, to provide insights into progress toward SDGs. Despite promising early results, approaches to using such data for SDG measurement thus far have largely evaluated on different datasets or used inconsistent evaluation metrics, making it hard to understand whether performance is improving and where additional research would be most fruitful. Furthermore, processing satellite and ground survey data requires domain knowledge that many in the machine learning community lack. In this paper, we introduce SustainBench, a collection of 15 benchmark tasks across 7 SDGs, including tasks related to economic development, agriculture, health, education, water and sanitation, climate action, and life on land. Datasets for 11 of the 15 tasks are released publicly for the first time. Our goals for SustainBench are to (1) lower the barriers to entry for the machine learning community to contribute to measuring and achieving the SDGs; (2) provide standard benchmarks for evaluating machine learning models on tasks across a variety of SDGs; and (3) encourage the development of novel machine learning methods where improved model performance facilitates progress towards the SDGs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Combining GEDI and Sentinel-2 for wall-to-wall mapping of tall and short crops

High resolution crop type maps are an important tool for improving food security, and remote sensing is increasingly used to create such maps in regions that possess ground truth labels for model training. However, these labels are absent in many regions, and models trained in other regions on typical satellite features, such as those from optical sensors, often exhibit low performance when transferred. Here we explore the use of NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) spaceborne lidar instrument, combined with Sentinel-2 optical data, for crop type mapping. Using data from three major cropped regions (in China, France, and the United States) we first demonstrate that GEDI energy profiles are capable of reliably distinguishing maize, a crop typically above 2m in height, from crops like rice and soybean that are shorter. We further show that these GEDI profiles provide much more invariant features across geographies compared to spectral and phenological features detected by passive optical sensors. GEDI is able to distinguish maize from other crops within each region with accuracies higher than 84%, and able to transfer across regions with accuracies higher than 82% compared to 64% for transfer of optical features. Finally, we show that GEDI profiles can be used to generate training labels for models based on optical imagery from Sentinel-2, thereby enabling the creation of 10m wall-to-wall maps of tall versus short crops in label-scarce regions. As maize is the second most widely grown crop in the world and often the only tall crop grown within a landscape, we conclude that GEDI offers great promise for improving global crop type maps.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2021

Two Shifts for Crop Mapping: Leveraging Aggregate Crop Statistics to Improve Satellite-based Maps in New Regions

Crop type mapping at the field level is critical for a variety of applications in agricultural monitoring, and satellite imagery is becoming an increasingly abundant and useful raw input from which to create crop type maps. Still, in many regions crop type mapping with satellite data remains constrained by a scarcity of field-level crop labels for training supervised classification models. When training data is not available in one region, classifiers trained in similar regions can be transferred, but shifts in the distribution of crop types as well as transformations of the features between regions lead to reduced classification accuracy. We present a methodology that uses aggregate-level crop statistics to correct the classifier by accounting for these two types of shifts. To adjust for shifts in the crop type composition we present a scheme for properly reweighting the posterior probabilities of each class that are output by the classifier. To adjust for shifts in features we propose a method to estimate and remove linear shifts in the mean feature vector. We demonstrate that this methodology leads to substantial improvements in overall classification accuracy when using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to map crop types in Occitanie, France and in Western Province, Kenya. When using LDA as our base classifier, we found that in France our methodology led to percent reductions in misclassifications ranging from 2.8% to 42.2% (mean = 21.9%) over eleven different training departments, and in Kenya the percent reductions in misclassification were 6.6%, 28.4%, and 42.7% for three training regions. While our methodology was statistically motivated by the LDA classifier, it can be applied to any type of classifier. As an example, we demonstrate its successful application to improve a Random Forest classifier.

stat.AP↗