arXiv subjects

Shih-Ni Prim

Publications and source records attributed to Shih-Ni Prim.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Induction and the rule of succession through a possibilistic inferential model lens

Induction is the process by which empirical evidence is transformed to knowledge. Hume famously argued---and Popper and others agree---that there can be no logical justification for induction. A weaker form of induction, due to Bayes, expresses the aforementioned knowledge in terms of probabilities, and we review some well-known and not-so-well-known criticisms of the Bayesian solution. We then investigate the relatively new possibilistic inferential model (IM) framework, showing that, in addition to the IM's strong, statistical reliability guarantees that it uniquely enjoys, it is safe from those criticisms that damage the Bayesian foundations. For illustration, we reconsider the classical sunrise problem and compare our proposed solution with Laplace's famous rule of succession.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

A Spectral Confounder Adjustment for Spatial Regression with Multiple Exposures and Outcomes

Characterizing social vulnerability is fundamental to disaster response planning. Numerous vulnerability indicators have been developed, but they are typically not validated for their predictive power over the outcomes of interest. As with many environmental health studies where interventions are impractical or unethical, validation of social vulnerability against public health outcomes is observational and relies on spatially-dependent data. Observational studies are susceptible to bias induced by unmeasured confounders. This problem is exacerbated in spatial studies with multiple health outcomes and environmental exposure variables, as the source and magnitude of confounding bias may differ by spatial scale and across exposure/outcome pairs. We propose to mitigate confounding effects in multivariate spatial studies using a tensor-regression model that allows exposure effects to vary by exposure, outcome, and spatial scale. By extracting exposure effects that correspond to local spatial scales, we replace the strict causal assumption of no unmeasured confounders with a more realistic assumption of local unconfoundedness i.e., differences between nearby regions are unconfounded, allowing for causal interpretation. Our study of the Southern United States shows that economic resilience (Theme 1) demonstrates the strongest positive effect on diabetes and negative effect on hyperlipidemia. Our analysis reveals a concise representation of the effects of social vulnerability indices on an array of chronic health outcomes, offering interpretable epidemiological insights that adjust for multivariate spatial confounding.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Actively Learning Joint Contours of Multiple Computer Experiments

Contour location---the process of sequentially training a surrogate model to identify the design inputs that result in a pre-specified response value from a single computer experiment---is a well-studied active learning problem. Here, we tackle a related but distinct problem: identifying the input configuration that returns pre-specified values of multiple computer experiments simultaneously. Motivated by computer experiments of the rotational torques acting upon a vehicle in flight, we aim to identify stable flight conditions that result in zero torque forces. We propose a ``joint contour location'' (jCL) scheme that strikes a strategic balance between exploring the multiple response surfaces while exploiting learning of the intersecting contours. Rather than working exploration and exploitation into a single acquisition function, we devise two distinct acquisition schemes with a decision rule to choose between the two, which also provides a natural stopping criterion if no solution is present. We employ traditional Gaussian processes (GPs), multitask GPs, and deep GPs, but our jCL procedure is applicable to any surrogate that can provide posterior predictive distributions. Our jCL designs significantly outperform existing (single response) CL strategies, optimization-based alternatives, and previous strategies for targeting joint contours, enabling us to efficiently locate the optimal configurations for our motivating computer experiments.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Decision-making with possibilistic inferential models

Inferential models (IMs) are data-dependent, imprecise-probabilistic structures designed to quantify uncertainty about unknowns. As the name suggests, the focus has been on uncertainty quantification for inference and on its reliability properties in that context. Focusing on a likelihood-based possibilistic IM formulation, the present paper develops a corresponding framework for decision making, and investigates the decision-theoretic implications of the IM's reliability guarantees. Here we show that the possibilistic IM's assessment of an action's quality, defined by a simple Choquet integral, tends not be too optimistic compared to that of an oracle. This ensures that the IM tends not to favor actions that the oracle doesn't also favor, hence the IM is also reliable for decision making. We also establish a complementary, large-sample efficiency result that says the IM's reliability isn't achieved by being grossly conservative. In the special case of equivariant statistical models, further connections can be made between the IM's and Bayesian's recommended actions, from which certain optimality conclusions can be drawn.

math.ST↗