arXiv subjects

Shijie Lu

Publications and source records attributed to Shijie Lu.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters

Forecasters are evaluated by backtesting, which replays resolved questions and grades the probability the system would have assigned before the outcome was known. For LLMs, two channels leak the answer into this test. A model that retrieves can surface reports written after the event, turning forecasting into a lookup, and each new model is trained on data closer to the event, so a question that lay in the future for last year's models sits inside this year's training data. Either way, the test grades recall while claiming to grade foresight. We introduce Hindcast, which closes both leaks by grading a model as if it stood at a chosen past date $t_0$, before the outcome existed in either channel. Hindcast replays resolved Polymarket prediction markets against a frozen snapshot of public Reddit, lets the model read only posts written before $t_0$, and scores each forecast against both what happened and the market's own price at $t_0$, itself a human forecast made from the same past information. Because the cutoff is set per market and the snapshot never changes, the evaluation re-runs on new markets as models improve, without going stale. Once the leak is closed, retrieval still helps most models, but only where Reddit discussed the event beforehand. Where the archive carried only speculation, retrieval hurts.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

VisAnalog: A Diagnostic Suite for Visual Concept Transfer on Natural Images

A useful test of visual concept learning is not just whether a model can recognize a concept in a single image, but whether it can preserve and manipulate concept-level properties under transformation and transfer them to new scenes. We introduce VisAnalog, a controlled suite for this setting on natural images. Each example instantiates $A\!:\!B::C\!:\,?$: images $B$ and a hidden target image $D$ are produced by applying the same deterministic transformation sequence to source images $A$ and $C$. Given $A$, $B$, and $C$, a model must answer a multiple-choice question about $D$. The benchmark contains 617 human-validated questions spanning one- to four-step transformations such as zoom, quadrant swap, rotation, flip, and hue rotation. Across strong proprietary and open-source VLMs, end-to-end accuracy is substantially lower than oracle accuracy when $D$ is directly shown, and degrades sharply as transformation depth increases, while human performance remains near the ceiling. A program-conditioned evaluation further separates failures of relation inference from failures of transformation application, showing that inferring the visual relation from $A \rightarrow B$ is the dominant bottleneck, with additional application errors emerging on harder multi-step cases. The dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/zli99/VisAnalog.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Unbiased Visual Reasoning with Controlled Visual Inputs

End-to-end Vision-language Models (VLMs) often answer visual questions by exploiting spurious correlations instead of causal visual evidence, and can become more shortcut-prone when fine-tuned. We introduce VISTA (Visual-Information Separation for Text-based Analysis), a modular framework that decouples perception from reasoning via an explicit information bottleneck. A frozen VLM sensor is restricted to short, objective perception queries, while a text-only LLM reasoner decomposes each question, plans queries, and aggregates visual facts in natural language. This controlled interface defines a reward-aligned environment for training unbiased visual reasoning with reinforcement learning. Instantiated with Qwen2.5-VL and Llama3.2-Vision sensors, and trained with GRPO from only 641 curated multi-step questions, VISTA significantly improves robustness to real-world spurious correlations on SpuriVerse (+16.29% with Qwen-2.5-VL-7B and +6.77% with Llama-3.2-Vision-11B), while remaining competitive on MMVP and a balanced SeedBench subset. VISTA transfers robustly across unseen VLM sensors and is able to recognize and recover from VLM perception failures. Human analysis further shows that VISTA's reasoning traces are more neutral, less reliant on spurious attributes, and more explicitly grounded in visual evidence than end-to-end VLM baselines.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2025

Evaluating Medical LLMs by Levels of Autonomy: A Survey Moving from Benchmarks to Applications

Medical Large language models achieve strong scores on standard benchmarks; however, the transfer of those results to safe and reliable performance in clinical workflows remains a challenge. This survey reframes evaluation through a levels-of-autonomy lens (L0-L3), spanning informational tools, information transformation and aggregation, decision support, and supervised agents. We align existing benchmarks and metrics with the actions permitted at each level and their associated risks, making the evaluation targets explicit. This motivates a level-conditioned blueprint for selecting metrics, assembling evidence, and reporting claims, alongside directions that link evaluation to oversight. By centering autonomy, the survey moves the field beyond score-based claims toward credible, risk-aware evidence for real clinical use.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

CC-LEARN: Cohort-based Consistency Learning

Large language models excel at many tasks but still struggle with consistent, robust reasoning. We introduce Cohort-based Consistency Learning (CC-Learn), a reinforcement learning framework that improves the reliability of LLM reasoning by training on cohorts of similar questions derived from shared programmatic abstractions. To enforce cohort-level consistency, we define a composite objective combining cohort accuracy, a retrieval bonus for effective problem decomposition, and a rejection penalty for trivial or invalid lookups that reinforcement learning can directly optimize, unlike supervised fine-tuning. Optimizing this reward guides the model to adopt uniform reasoning patterns across all cohort members. Experiments on challenging reasoning benchmarks (including ARC-Challenge and StrategyQA) show that CC-Learn boosts both accuracy and reasoning stability over pretrained and SFT baselines. These results demonstrate that cohort-level RL effectively enhances reasoning consistency in LLMs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

QA-LIGN: Aligning LLMs through Constitutionally Decomposed QA

Alignment of large language models (LLMs) with principles like helpfulness, honesty, and harmlessness typically relies on scalar rewards that obscure which objectives drive the training signal. We introduce QA-LIGN, which decomposes monolithic rewards into interpretable principle-specific evaluations through structured natural language programs. Models learn through a draft, critique, and revise pipeline, where symbolic evaluation against the rubrics provides transparent feedback for both initial and revised responses during GRPO training. Applied to uncensored Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, QA-LIGN reduces attack success rates by up to 68.7% while maintaining a 0.67% false refusal rate, achieving Pareto optimal safety-helpfulness performance and outperforming both DPO and GRPO with state-of-the-art reward models given equivalent training. These results demonstrate that making reward signals interpretable and modular improves alignment effectiveness, suggesting transparency enhances LLM safety.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

ToW: Thoughts of Words Improve Reasoning in Large Language Models

We introduce thoughts of words (ToW), a novel training-time data-augmentation method for next-word prediction. ToW views next-word prediction as a core reasoning task and injects fine-grained thoughts explaining what the next word should be and how it is related to the previous contexts in pre-training texts. Our formulation addresses two fundamental drawbacks of existing next-word prediction learning schemes: they induce factual hallucination and are inefficient for models to learn the implicit reasoning processes in raw texts. While there are many ways to acquire such thoughts of words, we explore the first step of acquiring ToW annotations through distilling from larger models. After continual pre-training with only 70K ToW annotations, we effectively improve models' reasoning performances by 7% to 9% on average and reduce model hallucination by up to 10%. At the same time, ToW is entirely agnostic to tasks and applications, introducing no additional biases on labels or semantics.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2018

A Unified Convergence Theorem

We prove a unified convergence theorem, which presents in four equivalent forms of the famous Antosik-Mikusinski Theorems. In particular, we show that Swartz' three uniform convergence principles are all equivalent to the Antosik-Mikusinski Theorems.

quant-ph↗