Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Shinichi Nakagawa

Publications and source records attributed to Shinichi Nakagawa.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

Meta-analysis with the glmmTMB R package

Two common formulations of meta-analytical models include the standard two-stage normal-normal models, which synthesise estimated effect sizes, and the one-stage generalised linear mixed model (GLMM), which directly model the underlying outcome data across studies. The general-purpose glmmTMB R package provides flexible response distributions and random-effect covariance structures through Template Model Builder (TMB). Its existing functionality can fit one-stage meta-analytic GLMM specifications. However, incorporating known sampling variances and covariances in the conventional two-stage inverse-variance formulation of meta-analysis was previously not easily accomplished in glmmTMB. Here, we introduce equalto, a new covariance structure in glmmTMB that allows users to supply a known sampling error variance-covariance matrix when fitting meta-analytic models. This enables explicit modelling of heteroscedasticity and dependence among sampling errors. Using simulations, we show that glmmTMB produces estimates identical to those from the corresponding metafor package functions for normal-normal models and similar estimates for GLMM specifications. We illustrate these models using published meta-analysis datasets in medicine, evolutionary ecology, and the social sciences. With the addition of the equalto covariance structure, glmmTMB now provides a unified and flexible framework for fitting two-stage normal-normal models and one-stage meta-analytic GLMMs, including multivariate specifications. These models can be fitted using the same glmmTMB() function, expanding the R toolkit available for evidence synthesis.

stat.CO↗

Statistical methods for assessing non-replicable, outlying, and influential studies

Quantitative evidence synthesis method has become a central tool for integration of findings across multiple studies, multi-centre trials, and multi-source cohort data. However, the identification and interpretation of non-replicable, outlying, and influential studies remain insufficiently addressed in practice, despite their potential to substantially affect the robustness and credibility of meta-analytic conclusions. In this paper, we clarify the conceptual distinctions between non-replicability, statistical outlyingness, and study influence, emphasizing that these concepts are related but not interchangeable. We then review the standard principles and procedures of model diagnostics for detecting outlying and influential studies in meta-analysis, together with their underlying statistical rationale. Building on recent methodological developments, we further discuss several practical and methodological refinements, including approaches for handling imprecise and correlated sampling variances, robust diagnostic procedures, and graphical tools for facilitating the identification and interpretation of unusual studies. Finally, we summarize recent advances in outlier and influence diagnostics and provide recommendations for the cautious interpretation and evaluation of studies identified as potentially non-replicable, outlying, or influential within meta-analytic frameworks.

stat.ME↗

Distributional regression models for meta-analysis

Meta-analyses are regarded as the highest level in the hierarchy of evidence, yet standard models traditionally concentrated on estimating the mean effect size, often under restrictive assumptions about the underlying distribution, such as homogeneous variance, symmetric shapes. We introduce a distributional regression framework for meta-analysis that generalizes these conventional models by allowing all parameters of the effect size distribution, such as location, scale, and shape, to be modelled as functions of explanatory variables. This unified framework accommodates a wide range of existing models, including random-effects, multilevel, multivariate, location-scale, and outlier-robust meta-analyses, as special cases. We provide an illustrative example, using 67,393 meta-analyses from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, employing location-scale models to investigate whether smaller studies tend to report larger effect sizes (i.e., small-study effects) and exhibit greater heterogeneity. We discuss implementation strategies using existing software, considerations for model selection and pre-registration, and the need for further methodological development. By moving beyond the mean effect size, distributional regression enables researchers to explore systematic variation in distributional structure, facilitating the joint test of new hypotheses corresponding to multiple distributional parameters.

stat.OT↗

Mastering an Accurate and Generalizable Simulation-Based Method to Obtain Bias-corrected Point Estimates and Sampling Variance for Any Effect Sizes

Meta-analyses require an effect-size estimate and its corresponding sampling variance from primary studies. In some cases, estimators for the sampling variance of a given effect size statistic may not exist, necessitating the derivation of a new formula for sampling variance. Traditionally, sampling variance formulas are obtained via hand-derived Taylor expansions (the delta method), though this procedure can be challenging for non-statisticians. Building on the idea of single-fit parametric resampling, we introduce SAFE bootstrap: a Single-fit, Accurate, Fast, and Easy simulation recipe that replaces potentially complex algebra with four intuitive steps: fit, draw, transform, and summarise. In a unified framework, the SAFE bootstrap yields bias-corrected point estimates and standard errors for any effect size statistic, regardless of whether the outcome is continuous or discrete. SAFE bootstrapping works by drawing once from a simple sampling model (normal, binomial, etc.), converting each replicate into any effect size of interest and then calculating the bias and sampling variance from simulated data. We demonstrate how to implement the SAFE bootstrap for a simple example first, and then for common effect sizes, such as the standardised mean difference and log odds ratio, as well as for less common effect sizes. With some additional coding, SAFE can also handle zero values and small sample sizes. Our tutorial, with R code supplements, should not only enhance understanding of sampling variance for effect sizes, but also serve as an introduction to the power of simulation-based methods for deriving any effect size with bias correction and its associated sampling variance.

stat.ME↗

Enriching meta-analyses through scoping review, bibliometrics, and alternative impact metrics: Visualizing study characteristics, hidden risk of bias, societal influence, and research translation

We present a framework consisting of three approaches that can enhance meta-analyses: 1) scoping reviews (evidence map), 2) bibliometrics, and 3) alternative impact metrics. These three "enrichment" approaches facilitate the research synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative evidence, along with academic and non-academic influences. While the meta-analysis yields quantitative insights (e.g., overall estimates), the enrichment analyses provide user-friendly summaries of qualitative information on the evidence base. Scoping reviews can visualize study characteristics, unravelling knowledge gaps and methodological differences. Bibliometric analysis offers a visual assessment of the non-independent evidence, such as hyper-dominant authors and countries, and funding sources, potentially informing the risk of bias. Impact metric analysis employs alternative metrics to gauge societal influence and research translation (e.g., policy and patent citations) of studies in the meta-analysis. To illustrate the application of this framework, we provide sample visualizations and R code.

cs.DL↗

Four principles for improved statistical ecology

Increasing attention has been drawn to the misuse of statistical methods over recent years, with particular concern about the prevalence of practices such as poor experimental design, cherry-picking and inadequate reporting. These failures are largely unintentional and no more common in ecology than in other scientific disciplines, with many of them easily remedied given the right guidance. Originating from a discussion at the 2020 International Statistical Ecology Conference, we show how ecologists can build their research following four guiding principles for impactful statistical research practices: 1. Define a focused research question, then plan sampling and analysis to answer it; 2. Develop a model that accounts for the distribution and dependence of your data; 3. Emphasise effect sizes to replace statistical significance with ecological relevance; 4. Report your methods and findings in sufficient detail so that your research is valid and reproducible. Listed in approximate order of importance, these principles provide a framework for experimental design and reporting that guards against unsound practices. Starting with a well-defined research question allows researchers to create an efficient study to answer it, and guards against poor research practices that lead to false positives and poor replicability. Correct and appropriate statistical models give sound conclusions, good reporting practices and a focus on ecological relevance make results impactful and replicable. Illustrated with an example from a recent study into the impact of disturbance on upland swamps, this paper explains the rationale for the selection and use of effective statistical practices and provides practical guidance for ecologists seeking to improve their use of statistical methods.

stat.ME↗

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae. VI: The Sixth Year (2013-2014)

Continuing the project described by Kato et al. (2009, PASJ, 61, S395, arXiv:0905.1757), we collected times of superhump maxima for 56 SU UMa-type dwarf novae mainly observed during the 2013-2014 season and characterized these objects. We detected negative superhumps in VW Hyi and indicated that the low number of normal outbursts in some supercycle can be interpreted as a result of the disk tilt. This finding, combined with the Kepler observation of V1504 Cyg and V344 Lyr, suggests that the disk tilt is responsible for modulating the outburst pattern in SU UMa-type dwarf novae. We also studied the deeply eclipsing WZ Sge-type dwarf nova MASTER OT J005740.99+443101.5 and found evidence of a sharp eclipse during the phase of early superhumps. The profile can be reproduced by a combination of the eclipse of the axisymmetric disk and the uneclipsed light source of early superhumps. This finding confirms the lack of evince of a greatly enhanced hot spot during the early stage of WZ Sge-type outburst. We detected growing (stage A) superhumps in MN Dra and give a suggestion that some of SU UMa-type dwarf novae situated near the critical condition of tidal instability may show long-lasting stage A superhumps. The large negative period derivatives reported in such systems can be understood a result of the combination of stage A and B superhumps. The WZ Sge-type dwarf novae AL Com and ASASSN-13ck showed a long-lasting (plateau-type) rebrightening. In the early phase of the rebrightening, both objects showed a precursor-like outburst, suggesting that the long-lasting rebrightening is triggered by a precursor outburst.

astro-ph.SR↗

Multi-Color Photometry of the Outburst of the New WZ Sge-type Dwarf Nova, OT J012059.6+325545

We present our photometric studies of the newly discovered optical transient, OT J012059.6+325545, which underwent a large outburst between 2010 November and 2011 January. The amplitude of the outburst was about 8 mag. We performed simultaneous multi-color photometry by using g', Rc, and i'-band filters from the early stage of the outburst. The time resolved photometry during the early stage revealed periodic variations with double-peaked profiles, which are referred to as early superhumps, with amplitudes of about 0.08 mag. After the rapid fading from the main outburst, we found rebrightening phenomena, which occurred at least nine times. The large amplitude of the outburst, early superhumps, and rebrightening phenomena are typical features of WZ Sge-type dwarf novae. We detected color variations within the early superhump modulations making this only the second system, after V445 And, for which this has been established. We carried out numerical calculations of the accretion disk to explain both of the modulations and the color variations of the early superhump. This modeling of the disk height supports the idea that height variations within the outer disk can produce the early superhump modulations, though we cannot rule out that temperature asymmetries may also play a role.

astro-ph.SR↗

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae. IV: The Fourth Year (2011-2012)

Continuing the project described by Kato et al. (2009, arXiv:0905.1757), we studied 86 SU UMa-type dwarf novae. We confirmed the general trends such as the relation between period derivatives and orbital periods. There are some systems showing positive period derivatives despite the long orbital periods. We observed the 2011 outburst of the WZ Sge-type dwarf nova BW Scl, and recorded an O-C diagram similar to those of previously known WZ Sge-type dwarf novae. The WZ Sge-type dwarf nova OT J184228.1+483742 showed an unusual pattern of double outbursts composed of an outburst with early superhumps and one with ordinary superhumps. We propose an interpretation that a very small growth rate of the 3:1 resonance due to an extremely low mass-ratio led to a quenching of the superoutburst before the ordinary superhumps appeared. We studied ER UMa-type dwarf novae and found that V1159 Ori showed positive superhumps similar to ER UMa in the 1990s. The recently recognized ER UMa-type object BK Lyn dominantly showed negative superhumps, and its behavior was very similar to the present-day state of ER UMa. The pattern of period variations in AM CVn-type objects were very similar to short-period hydrogen-rich SU UMa-type dwarf novae, making them helium analogue of hydrogen-rich SU UMa-type dwarf novae. SBS 1108+574, a peculiar hydrogen-rich dwarf nova below the period minimum, showed a very similar pattern of period variations to those of short-period SU UMa-type dwarf novae. The mass-ratio derived from the detected orbital period suggests that this secondary is a somewhat evolved star whose hydrogen envelope was mostly stripped during the mass-exchange. CC Scl, MASTER OT J072948.66+593824.4 and OT J173516.9+154708 showed only low-amplitude superhumps with complex profiles. These superhumps are likely a combination of closely separated two periods.

astro-ph.SR↗

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae. III: The Third Year (2010--2011)

Continuing the project described by Kato et al. (2009, PASJ 61, S395, arXiv:0905.1757), we collected times of superhump maxima for 51 SU UMa-type dwarf novae mainly observed during the 2010-2011 season. Although most of the new data for systems with short superhump periods basically confirmed the findings by Kato et al. (2009) and Kato et al. (2010, PASJ 62, 1525, arXiv:1009.5444), the long-period system GX Cas showed an exceptionally large positive period derivative. An analysis of public Kepler data of V344 Lyr and V1504 Cyg yielded less striking stage transitions. In V344 Lyr, there was prominent secondary component growing during the late stage of superoutbursts, and the component persisted at least for two more cycles of successive normal outbursts. We also investigated the superoutbursts of two conspicuous eclipsing objects: HT Cas and the WZ Sge-type object SDSS J080434.20+510349.2. Strong beat phenomena were detected in both objects, and late-stage superhumps in the latter object had an almost constant luminosity during the repeated rebrightenings. The WZ Sge-type object SDSS J133941.11+484727.5 showed a phase reversal around the rapid fading from the superoutburst. The object showed a prominent beat phenomenon even after the end of the superoutburst. A pilot study of superhump amplitudes indicated that the amplitudes of superhumps are strongly correlated with orbital periods, and the dependence on the inclination is weak in systems with inclinations smaller than 80 deg.

astro-ph.SR↗

Survey of Period Variations of Superhumps in SU UMa-Type Dwarf Novae. II: The Second Year (2009-2010)

As an extension of the project in Kato et al. (2009, arXiv:0905.1757), we collected times of superhump maxima for 61 SU UMa-type dwarf novae mainly observed during the 2009-2010 season. The newly obtained data confirmed the basic findings reported in Kato et al. (2009): the presence of stages A-C, as well as the predominance of positive period derivatives during stage B in systems with superhump periods shorter than 0.07 d. There was a systematic difference in period derivatives for systems with superhump periods longer than 0.075 d between this study and Kato et al. (2009). We suggest that this difference is possibly caused by the relative lack of frequently outbursting SU UMa-type dwarf novae in this period regime in the present study. We recorded a strong beat phenomenon during the 2009 superoutburst of IY UMa. The close correlation between the beat period and superhump period suggests that the changing angular velocity of the apsidal motion of the elliptical disk is responsible for the variation of superhump periods. We also described three new WZ Sge-type objects with established early superhumps and one with likely early superhumps. We also suggest that two systems, VX For and EL UMa, are WZ Sge-type dwarf novae with multiple rebrightenings. The O-C variation in OT J213806.6+261957 suggests that the frequent absence of rebrightenings in very short-Porb objects can be a result of sustained superoutburst plateau at the epoch when usual SU UMa-type dwarf novae return to quiescence preceding a rebrightening. We also present a formulation for a variety of Bayesian extension to traditional period analyses.

astro-ph.SR↗