Shirin Dehghani | Searcharxiv

arXiv2024

Exploring Relationships Between Cryptocurrency News Outlets and Influencers' Twitter Activity and Market Prices

Academics increasingly acknowledge the predictive power of social media for a wide variety of events and, more specifically, for financial markets. Anecdotal and empirical findings show that cryptocurrencies are among the financial assets that have been affected by news and influencers' activities on Twitter. However, the extent to which Twitter crypto influencer's posts about trading signals and their effect on market prices is mostly unexplored. In this paper, we use LLMs to uncover buy and not-buy signals from influencers and news outlets' Twitter posts and use a VAR analysis with Granger Causality tests and cross-correlation analysis to understand how these trading signals are temporally correlated with the top nine major cryptocurrencies' prices. Overall, the results show a mixed pattern across cryptocurrencies and temporal periods. However, we found that for the top three cryptocurrencies with the highest presence within news and influencer posts, their aggregated LLM-detected trading signal over the preceding 24 hours granger-causes fluctuations in their market prices, exhibiting a lag of at least 6 hours. In addition, the results reveal fundamental differences in how influencers and news outlets cover cryptocurrencies.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2024

Open-Source LLMs for Text Annotation: A Practical Guide for Model Setting and Fine-Tuning

This paper studies the performance of open-source Large Language Models (LLMs) in text classification tasks typical for political science research. By examining tasks like stance, topic, and relevance classification, we aim to guide scholars in making informed decisions about their use of LLMs for text analysis. Specifically, we conduct an assessment of both zero-shot and fine-tuned LLMs across a range of text annotation tasks using news articles and tweets datasets. Our analysis shows that fine-tuning improves the performance of open-source LLMs, allowing them to match or even surpass zero-shot GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, though still lagging behind fine-tuned GPT-3.5. We further establish that fine-tuning is preferable to few-shot training with a relatively modest quantity of annotated text. Our findings show that fine-tuned open-source LLMs can be effectively deployed in a broad spectrum of text annotation applications. We provide a Python notebook facilitating the application of LLMs in text annotation for other researchers.

cs.CL↗