arXiv subjects

Shirui Zhou

Publications and source records attributed to Shirui Zhou.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Strictly Proper Scoring-Rule Theory for Calibrating Stochastic Car-Following Models

Problem definition: Fixed parameters and inputs in a stochastic simulator induce a distribution over complete trajectories, not one trajectory. Calibration must assess this distribution, including variability and temporal dependence, against observations. Yet stochastic car-following models are commonly calibrated with trajectory-error objectives inherited from deterministic modelling. Methodology/results: We establish a scoring-rule theory of stochastic calibration. Strict propriety requires the data-generating distribution to uniquely minimise expected score. MRMean-I, the average run-wise error, drives separable stochastic spread to zero; MRMean-II, the error of the ensemble-mean trajectory, cannot identify a parameter that changes only spread; and MRMin, the error of the closest simulated run, has a population target that changes with ensemble size. These results are confirmed for stochastic Intelligent Driver Model extensions with additive acceleration noise and random desired headway. We recommend exact maximum likelihood when the correct transition density is available; otherwise, an unbiased simulation-based estimator of a strictly proper score. The energy score meets this requirement and gives the best held-out distributional prediction among the evaluated simulation-based objectives, although both models retain too-narrow bands and miss persistent disturbances. Implications:Strict propriety separates a valid calibration target from parameter identifiability and model adequacy. The theory applies to vector-valued outputs from stochastic transportation simulators; the car-following experiments illustrate its scope.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

A Structured Framework for Calibrating Stochastic Car-Following Models: Data Adequacy, Parameter Sensitivity, and Objective Selection

Calibrating a stochastic car-following model is harder than its deterministic counterpart: the loss itself becomes a random variable, so a favorable random realization can be mistaken for a good parameter vector. This paper develops a structured framework for calibrating stochastic car-following models -- a completeness-controlled synthetic design, a corrected variance-based sensitivity analysis (VBSA), and the minimum-realization (MRMIN) calibration protocol -- across two structurally different stochastic mechanisms, QIDM and IDM2D. We test two claims from deterministic calibration -- that a small number of parameters, and the trajectory itself above all, dominates the sensitivity ranking, and that spacing calibration keeps dominating speed calibration once dynamics are stochastic -- and ask whether a model's noise term can be calibrated on its own. In a balanced synthetic experiment, driving-regime completeness has a mean total-effect index on par with the model's most influential parameter and roughly two orders of magnitude above pair identity, extending rather than reversing the deterministic finding on trajectory-identity dominance. Under MRMIN, calibrating only the noise parameter against a population-wide deterministic fit more than doubles median spacing error across 1644 NGSIM trajectories, but fitting the deterministic parameters per trajectory first and calibrating noise on top recovers it. Spacing calibration remains more cross-dimensionally robust than speed calibration on average, but the deterministic guarantee that this dominance can never reverse is violated in 19-26% of trajectories for both mechanisms. A multi-objective screen in relative-error space then favors joint spacing-speed goodness-of-fit functions over single-dimension spacing calibration. Deterministic calibration guarantees should therefore be re-tested, not assumed, once a model is stochastic.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

Human adaptive variability stabilises collective traffic dynamics

Automated systems are often designed on the assumption that replacing human behavioural variability with precise, uniform algorithmic control improves collective performance. In automotive traffic, this principle underlies commercial adaptive cruise control (ACC). Using two large-scale human-driving experiments comprising 2.95 million car-following observations, a 25-vehicle platoon experiment and a controlled 11-driver protocol, cross-validated with 0.77 million observations from the NGSIM dataset and data from 22 production ACC systems, together with empirically calibrated ACC simulations, we show the opposite: rigid algorithmic uniformity creates systemic fragility. Commercial rule-based controllers amplify small local perturbations into severe stop-and-go waves, increasing fuel consumption and carbon emissions by approximately 2.7- to 5.0-fold across scenarios. Human-driven platoons, by contrast, progressively dissipate disturbances and maintain smoother flow. We identify the behavioural mechanism behind this advantage: human car-following does not follow a fixed proportional spacing rule. Drivers continuously reshape their time-headway distributions across speed regimes, exhibiting a non-monotonic shift from efficiency-oriented to risk-sensitive regulation. This speed-dependent variability generates nonlinear damping that suppresses the synchronisation and propagation of local errors. Our findings challenge the view that human variability is merely suboptimal noise to be eliminated. More broadly, they suggest that robust large-scale interactive AI systems should embed adaptive, human-inspired behavioural flexibility rather than rely on rigid uniformity.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2026

The Moving Target of Urban Equity: Spatiotemporal Demand and Double Disadvantage in Hefei, China

Equitable access to essential urban services is a pillar of modern planning, yet most accessibility models rely strictly on static residential locations, ignoring how demand shifts throughout the daily loop. This study introduces a population-based, temporally differentiated framework to examine the resulting "moving target" of urban equity, focusing on medical facilities and green spaces in Hefei, China. Utilising large-scale mobile phone GPS data, we construct dynamic residential and workplace population exposure surfaces to capture shifting hourly demand. We then evaluate accessibility via network-based travel times paired with a novel per-capita provision metric that accounts for real-time demand competition. We define \textit{double disadvantage} as the co-occurrence of poor spatial accessibility and insufficient per-capita service availability. Counterintuitively, the results reveal that double-disadvantaged areas cluster primarily along the inner suburban belt rather than the remote periphery, where per-capita service provision remains relatively sufficient. Furthermore, temporal shifts drastically alter equity landscapes: daytime workplace concentrations intensely exacerbate demand competition in urban job centres. These findings demonstrate that urban inequality depends heavily on spatiotemporal population flows rather than just the fixed location of services. Ultimately, achieving true urban equity requires dynamic planning interventions that address time-varying demand rather than focusing solely on static, home-based metrics.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

A Driving Regime-Embedded Deep Learning Framework for Modeling Intra-Driver Heterogeneity in Multi-Scale Car-Following Dynamics

A fundamental challenge in car-following modeling lies in accurately representing the multi-scale complexity of driving behaviors, particularly the intra-driver heterogeneity where a single driver's actions fluctuate dynamically under varying conditions. While existing models, both conventional and data-driven, address behavioral heterogeneity to some extent, they often emphasize inter-driver heterogeneity or rely on simplified assumptions, limiting their ability to capture the dynamic heterogeneity of a single driver under different driving conditions. To address this gap, we propose a novel data-driven car-following framework that systematically embeds discrete driving regimes (e.g., steady-state following, acceleration, cruising) into vehicular motion predictions. Leveraging high-resolution traffic trajectory datasets, the proposed hybrid deep learning architecture combines Gated Recurrent Units for discrete driving regime classification with Long Short-Term Memory networks for continuous kinematic prediction, unifying discrete decision-making processes and continuous vehicular dynamics to comprehensively represent inter- and intra-driver heterogeneity. Driving regimes are identified using a bottom-up segmentation algorithm and Dynamic Time Warping, ensuring robust characterization of behavioral states across diverse traffic scenarios. Comparative analyses demonstrate that the framework significantly reduces prediction errors for acceleration (maximum MSE improvement reached 58.47\%), speed, and spacing metrics while reproducing critical traffic phenomena, such as stop-and-go wave propagation and oscillatory dynamics.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Twenty-Five Years of the Intelligent Driver Model: Foundations, Extensions, Applications, and Future Directions

The Intelligent Driver Model (IDM), proposed in 2000, has become a foundational tool in traffic flow modeling, renowned for its simplicity, computational efficiency, and ability to capture diverse traffic dynamics. Over the past 25 years, IDM has significantly advanced car-following theory and found extensive application in intelligent transportation systems, including driver assistance systems and autonomous vehicle control. However, IDM's deterministic framework and simplified assumptions face limitations in addressing real-world complexities such as stochastic variability, driver heterogeneity, and mixed traffic conditions. This paper provides a systematic review and critical reflection on IDM's theoretical foundations, academic influence, practical applications, and model extensions. While highlighting IDM's contributions, we emphasize the need to extend the model into a modular and extensible framework. Future directions include integrating stochastic elements, human behavioral insights, and hybrid modeling approaches that combine physics-based structures with data-driven methodologies. By reimagining IDM as a flexible modeling basis, this paper aims to inspire its continued development to meet the demands of intelligent, connected, and increasingly complex traffic systems.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Experimental features of emissions and fuel consumption in a car-following platoon

The paper investigates the features of emissions and fuel consumption (EFC) in a car-following (CF) platoon based on two experimental datasets. Four classical EFC models are employed and a universal concave growth pattern of the EFC along a platoon has been demonstrated. A general framework of coupling EFC and CF models is tested by calibrating and simulating three classical CF models. This work first demonstrates that, at vehicle-pair level, all models perform well on EFC prediction. The intelligent driver model outperforms the other CF models on calibration accuracy, but this is not true on EFC prediction. Second, at platoon level, the predicted EFC is nearly constant along the platoon which qualitatively differs from the experimental observation. The investigation highlights that accurate estimations at vehicle level may be insufficient for analysis at platoon level due to the significant role of oscillation growth and evolution in EFC estimation.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

On the calibration of stochastic car following models

Recent experimental and empirical observations have demonstrated that stochasticity plays a critical role in car following (CF) dynamics. To reproduce the observations, quite a few stochastic CF models have been proposed. However, while calibrating the deterministic CF models is well investigated, studies on how to calibrate the stochastic models are lacking. Motivated by this fact, this paper aims to address this fundamental research gap. Firstly, the CF experiment under the same driving environment is conducted and analyzed. Based on the experimental results, we test two previous calibration methods, i.e., the method to minimize the Multiple Runs Mean (MRMean) error and the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Deficiencies of the two methods have been identified. Next, we propose a new method to minimize the Multiple Runs Minimum (MRMin) error. Calibration based on the experimental data and the synthetic data demonstrates that the new method outperforms the two previous methods. Furthermore, the mechanisms of different methods are explored from the perspective of error analysis. The analysis indicates that the new method can be regarded as a nested optimization model. The method separates the aleatoric errors caused by stochasticity from the epistemic error caused by parameters, and it is able to deal with the two kinds of errors effectively. Finally, we find that under the calibration framework of stochastic CF models, the calibrated parameter set using spacing as MoP may not always outperform that using velocity as MoP. These findings are expected to enhance the understanding of the role of stochasticity in CF dynamics where the new calibration framework for stochastic CF models is established.

physics.soc-ph↗