arXiv subjects

Shlomo Havlin

Publications and source records attributed to Shlomo Havlin.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Distance Distribution in Extreme Modular Networks

Modularity is a key organizing principle in real-world large-scale complex networks. Many real-world networks exhibit modular structures such as transportation infrastructures, communication networks and social media. Having the knowledge of the shortest paths length distribution (DSPL) between random pairs of nodes in such networks is important for understanding many processes, including diffusion or flow. Here, we provide analytical methods which are in good agreement with simulations on large scale networks with an extreme modular structure. By extreme modular, we mean that two modules or communities may be connected by maximum one link. As a result of the modular structure of the network, we obtain a distribution showing many peaks that represent the number of modules a typical shortest path is passing through. We present theory and results for the case where inter-links are weighted, as well as cases in which the inter-links are spread randomly across nodes in the community or limited to a specific set of nodes.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Spreading of localized attacks on spatial multiplex networks with a community structure

We study the effect of localized attacks on a multiplex spatial network, where each layer is a network of communities. The system is considered functional when the nodes belong to the giant component in all the multiplex layers. The communities are of linear size $ζ$, such that within them any pair of nodes are linked with same probability, and additionally nodes in nearby communities are linked with a different (typically smaller) probability. This model can represent an interdependent infrastructure system of cities where within the city there are many links while between cities there are fewer links. We develop an analytical method, similar to the finite element method applied to a network with communities, and verify our analytical results by simulations. We find, both by simulation and theory, that for different parameters of connectivity and spatiality --- there is a critical localized size of damage above which it will spread and the entire system will collapse.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Scaling Laws in Earthquake Memory for Interevent Times and Distances

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake predictability is partly due to the erratic nature of earthquakes and partly to the lack of understanding the underlying mechanisms of earthquakes. To improve our understanding and potential forecasting, here we study the spatial and temporal long-term memory of interevent earthquakes above a certain magnitude using lagged conditional probabilities. We find, in real data, that the lagged conditional probabilities show long-term memory for both the interevent times and interevent distances and that the memory functions obey scaling and decay slowly with time, while, at a characteristic time, the decay crossesover to a fast decay. We also show that the ETAS model, which is often used to forecast earthquake events, yields scaling functions of the temporal and spatial interevent intervals which are not consistent with those of real data.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Propinquity drives the emergence of network structure and density

The lack of large-scale, continuously evolving empirical data usually limits the study of networks to the analysis of snapshots in time. This approach has been used for verification of network evolution mechanisms, such as preferential attachment. However, these studies are mostly restricted to the analysis of the first links established by a new node in the network and typically ignore connections made after each node's initial introduction. Here, we show that the subsequent actions of individuals, such as their second network link, are not random and can be decoupled from the mechanism behind the first network link. We show that this feature has strong influence on the network topology. Moreover, snapshots in time can now provide information on the mechanism used to establish the second connection. We interpret these empirical results by introducing the propinquity model, in which we control and vary the distance of the second link established by a new node, and find that this can lead to networks with tunable density scaling, as found in real networks. Our work shows that sociologically meaningful mechanisms are influencing network evolution and provides indications of the importance of measuring the distance between successive connections.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

A Multifractal Analysis of Asian Foreign Exchange Markets

We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we also estimate the multifractal spectra of limited series before and after the crisis. We find that the Korean and Thai foreign exchange markets experienced a significant increase in multifractality compared to Hong-Kong and Japan. We also show that the multifractality is stronge related to the presence of high values of returns in the series.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2019

Interconnections between networks act like an external field in first-order percolation transitions

Many interdependent, real-world infrastructures involve interconnections between different communities or cities. Here we study if and how the effects of such interconnections can be described as an external field for interdependent networks experiencing first-order percolation transitions. We find that the critical exponents $γ$ and $δ$, related to the external field can also be defined for first-order transitions but that they have different values than those found for second-order transitions. Surprisingly, we find that both sets of different exponents can be found even within a single model of interdependent networks, depending on the dependency coupling strength. Specifically, the exponent $γ$ in the first-order regime (high coupling) does not obey the fluctuation dissipation theorem, whereas in the continuous regime (for low coupling) it does. Nevertheless, in both cases they satisfy Widom's identity, $δ- 1 = γ/ β$ which further supports the validity of their definitions. Our results provide physical intuition into the nature of the phase transition in interdependent networks and explain the underlying reasons for two distinct sets of exponents.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Fake news propagate differently from real news even at early stages of spreading

Social media can be a double-edged sword for society, either as a convenient channel exchanging ideas or as an unexpected conduit circulating fake news through a large population. While existing studies of fake news focus on theoretical modeling of propagation or identification methods based on machine learning, it is important to understand the realistic mechanisms between theoretical models and black-box methods. Here we track large databases of fake news and real news in both, Weibo in China and Twitter in Japan from different culture, which include their complete traces of re-postings. We find in both online social networks that fake news spreads distinctively from real news even at early stages of propagation, e.g. five hours after the first re-postings. Our finding demonstrates collective structural signals that help to understand the different propagation evolution of fake news and real news. Different from earlier studies, identifying the topological properties of the information propagation at early stages may offer novel features for early detection of fake news in social media.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Critical stretching of mean-field regimes in spatial networks

We study a spatial network model with exponentially distributed link-lengths on an underlying grid of points, undergoing a structural crossover from a random, Erdős--Rényi graph to a $2D$ lattice at the characteristic interaction range $ζ$. We find that, whilst far from the percolation threshold the random part of the incipient cluster scales linearly with $ζ$, close to criticality it extends in space until the universal length scale $ζ^{3/2}$ before crossing over to the spatial one. We demonstrate this {\em critical stretching} phenomenon in percolation and in dynamical processes, and we discuss its implications to real-world phenomena, such as neural activation, traffic flows or epidemic spreading.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Identifying long-term periodic cycles and memories of collective emotion in online social media

Collective emotion has been traditionally evaluated by questionnaire survey on a limited number of people. Recently, big data of written texts on the Internet has been available for analyzing collective emotion for very large scales. Although short-term reflection between collective emotion and real social phenomena has been widely studied, long-term dynamics of collective emotion has not been studied so far due to the lack of long persistent data sets. In this study, we extracted collective emotion over a 10-year period from 3.6 billion Japanese blog articles. Firstly, we find that collective emotion shows clear periodic cycles, i.e., weekly and seasonal behaviors, accompanied with pulses caused by natural disasters. For example, April is represented by high Tension, probably due to starting school in Japan. We also identified long-term memory in the collective emotion that is characterized by the power-law decay of the autocorrelation function over several months.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2019

Significant Impact of Rossby Waves on Air Pollution Detected by Network Analysis

Air pollution is associated with human diseases and has been found to be related to premature mortality. In response, environmental policies have been adopted in many countries, to decrease anthropogenic air pollution for the improvement of long-term air quality, since most air pollutant sources are anthropogenic. However, air pollution fluctuations have been found to strongly depend on the weather dynamics. This raises a fundamental question: What are the significant atmospheric processes that affect the local daily variability of air pollution? For this purpose, we develop here a multi-layered network analysis to detect the interlinks between the geopotential height of the upper air (~5 km) and surface air pollution in both China and the USA. We find that Rossby waves significantly affect air pollution fluctuations through the development of cyclone and anticyclone systems, and further affect the local stability of the air and the winds. The significant impacts of Rossby waves on air pollution are found to underlie most of the daily fluctuations in air pollution. Thus, the impact of Rossby waves on human life is greater than previously assumed. The rapid warming of the Arctic could slow down Rossby waves, thus increasing human health risks. Our method can help to determine the risk assessment of such extreme events and can improve potential predictability.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2019

Switch between critical percolation modes in city traffic dynamics

Percolation transition is widely observed in networks ranging from biology to engineering. While much attention has been paid to network topologies, studies rarely focus on critical percolation phenomena driven by network dynamics. Using extensive real data, we study the critical percolation properties in city traffic dynamics. Our results suggest that two modes of different critical percolation behaviors are switching in the same network topology under different traffic dynamics. One mode of city traffic (during nonrush hours or days off) has similar critical percolation characteristics as small world networks, while the other mode (during rush hours on working days) tends to behave as a 2D lattice. This switching behavior can be understood by the fact that the high-speed urban roads during nonrush hours or days off (that are congested during rush hours) represent effective long-range connections, like in small world networks. Our results might be useful for understanding and improving traffic resilience.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2019

Scale-free Resilience of Real Traffic Jams

The concept of resilience can be realized in natural and engineering systems, representing the ability of system to adapt and recover from various disturbances. Although resilience is a critical property needed for understanding and managing the risks and collapses of transportation system, an accepted and useful definition of resilience for urban traffic as well as its statistical property under perturbations is still missing. Here we define city traffic resilience based on the spatio-temporal clusters of congestion in real traffic, and find that the resilience follows a scale free distribution in two-dimensional city road networks and one-dimensional highways, with different exponents, but similar exponents in different days and different cities. The traffic resilience is also revealed to have a novel scaling relation between the cluster size of the spatio-temporal jam and its recovery duration, independent of microscopic details. Our findings of universal traffic resilience can provide indication towards better understanding and designing these complex engineering systems under internal and external disturbances.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Increasing trend of scientists to switch between topics

We analyze the publication records of individual scientists, aiming to quantify the topic switching dynamics of scientists and its influence. For each scientist, the relations among her publications are characterized via shared references. We find that the co-citing network of the papers of a scientist exhibits a clear community structure where each major community represents a research topic. Our analysis suggests that scientists tend to have a narrow distribution of the number of topics. However, researchers nowadays switch more frequently between topics than those in the early days. We also find that high switching probability in early career (<12y) is associated with low overall productivity, while it is correlated with high overall productivity in latter career. Interestingly, the average citation per paper, however, is in all career stages negatively correlated with the switching probability. We propose a model with exploitation and exploration mechanisms that can explain the main observed features.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

A combined network and machine learning approaches for product market forecasting

Sustainable financial markets play an important role in the functioning of human society. Still, the detection and prediction of risk in financial markets remain challenging and draw much attention from the scientific community. Here we develop a new approach based on combined network theory and machine learning to study the structure and operations of financial product markets. Our network links are based on the similarity of firms' products and are constructed using the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) filings of US listed firms. We find that several features in our network can serve as good precursors of financial market risks. We then combine the network topology and machine learning methods to predict both successful and failed firms. We find that the forecasts made using our method are much better than other well-known regression techniques. The framework presented here not only facilitates the prediction of financial markets but also provides insight and demonstrate the power of combining network theory and machine learning.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Local structure can identify and quantify influential global spreaders in large scale social networks

Measuring and optimizing the influence of nodes in big-data online social networks are important for many practical applications, such as the viral marketing and the adoption of new products. As the viral spreading on social network is a global process, it is commonly believed that measuring the influence of nodes inevitably requires the knowledge of the entire network. Employing percolation theory, we show that the spreading process displays a nucleation behavior: once a piece of information spread from the seeds to more than a small characteristic number of nodes, it reaches a point of no return and will quickly reach the percolation cluster, regardless of the entire network structure, otherwise the spreading will be contained locally. Thus, we find that, without the knowledge of entire network, any nodes' global influence can be accurately measured using this characteristic number, which is independent of the network size. This motivates an efficient algorithm with constant time complexity on the long standing problem of best seed spreaders selection, with performance remarkably close to the true optimum.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Possible Origin of Memory in Earthquakes: Real catalogs and ETAS model

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional probability (CP) methods we find that memory exists not only in inter-occurrence seismic records, but also in released energy as well as in the series of the number of events per unit time. Analysis of the conventional earthquake model (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences, ETAS) indicates that earthquake memory can be reproduced only for a narrow range of model's parameters. This finding, therefore provides additional accuracy on the model parameters through tight restrictions on their values in different worldwide regions and can serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models.

physics.geo-ph↗

arXiv2018

Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming~\cite{pachauri2014climate,ogorman_contrasting_2014} and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics and political conflicts \cite{hsiang2011civil,helbing_globally_2013,schleussner_armed-conflict_2016,carleton_social_2016}. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here we develop a new approach based on network and percolation frameworks \cite{cohen2010complex} to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. More specifically, we classify the globe area into evolving percolation clusters and find a discontinuous phase transition, which indicates a consistent poleward expansion of the largest (tropical) cluster, as well as the weakening of the link's strength. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) twenty-first century climate change simulations~\cite{taylor2012overview}. The analysis is based on high resolution surface (2~m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster in order to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2018

Resilience of spatial networks with inter-links behaving as an external field

Many real systems such as, roads, shipping routes, and infrastructure systems can be modeled based on spatially embedded networks. The inter-links between two distant spatial networks, such as those formed by transcontinental airline flights, play a crucial role in optimizing communication and transportation over such long distances. Still, little is known about how inter-links affect the resilience of such systems. Here, we develop a framework to study the resilience of interlinked spatially embedded networks based on percolation theory. We find that the inter-links can be regarded as an external field near the percolation phase transition, analogous to a magnetic field in a ferromagnetic-paramagnetic spin system. By defining the analogous critical exponents $δ$ and $γ$, we find that their values for various inter-links structures follow Widom's scaling relations. Furthermore, we study the optimal robustness of our model and compare it with the analysis of real-world networks. The framework presented here not only facilitates the understanding of phase transitions with external fields in complex networks but also provides insight into optimizing real-world infrastructure networks and a magnetic field in a management.

physics.soc-ph↗