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Shoufeng Ma

Publications and source records attributed to Shoufeng Ma.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

Reproducing human biases in route choice using large language models: Toward scalable behavioral modeling

Human choice behavior, including route choice, exhibits systematic behavioral biases that deviate from the assumptions of full rationality. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) has been widely recognized as an effective framework for characterizing such behavioral patterns. However, its large-scale application, particularly in simulation and agent-based modeling, critically depends on specifying individual-level CPT parameters, which remain a major bottleneck. Conventional approaches typically rely on surveys and controlled experiments to calibrate CPT parameters, yet these methods are difficult to generalize and often fail to capture the full diversity of human decision-making. To address this challenge, this paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can reproduce human behavioral biases in choice-making without explicit specification of prospect-theoretic parameters. Using route choice as a representative scenario, we design a behavioral evaluation framework and systematically compare LLM-generated decisions with established human behavioral patterns predicted by CPT. Experimental results demonstrate that LLMs are capable of reproducing non-rational human choice biases and can exhibit decision behaviors consistent with prospect-theoretic effects under uncertainty. These findings suggest that generative AI models may provide a scalable alternative for modeling human decision processes and offer a promising foundation for next-generation large-scale agent-based simulation and AI-driven behavioral research.

cs.AI

Human adaptive variability stabilises collective traffic dynamics

Automated systems are often designed on the assumption that replacing human behavioural variability with precise, uniform algorithmic control improves collective performance. In automotive traffic, this principle underlies commercial adaptive cruise control (ACC). Using two large-scale human-driving experiments comprising 2.95 million car-following observations, a 25-vehicle platoon experiment and a controlled 11-driver protocol, cross-validated with 0.77 million observations from the NGSIM dataset and data from 22 production ACC systems, together with empirically calibrated ACC simulations, we show the opposite: rigid algorithmic uniformity creates systemic fragility. Commercial rule-based controllers amplify small local perturbations into severe stop-and-go waves, increasing fuel consumption and carbon emissions by approximately 2.7- to 5.0-fold across scenarios. Human-driven platoons, by contrast, progressively dissipate disturbances and maintain smoother flow. We identify the behavioural mechanism behind this advantage: human car-following does not follow a fixed proportional spacing rule. Drivers continuously reshape their time-headway distributions across speed regimes, exhibiting a non-monotonic shift from efficiency-oriented to risk-sensitive regulation. This speed-dependent variability generates nonlinear damping that suppresses the synchronisation and propagation of local errors. Our findings challenge the view that human variability is merely suboptimal noise to be eliminated. More broadly, they suggest that robust large-scale interactive AI systems should embed adaptive, human-inspired behavioural flexibility rather than rely on rigid uniformity.

physics.soc-ph

Speed dependent stochasticity capacitates Newell model for synchronized flow and oscillation growth pattern

This paper has incorporated the stochasticity into the Newell car following model. Three stochastic driving factors have been considered: (i) Driver's acceleration is bounded. (ii) Driver's deceleration includes stochastic component, which is depicted by a deceleration with the randomization probability that is assumed to increase with the speed. (iii) Vehicles in the jam state have a larger randomization probability. Two simulation scenarios are conducted to test the model. In the first scenario, traffic flow on a circular road is investigated. In the second scenario, empirical traffic flow patterns in the NGSIM data induced by a rubberneck bottleneck is studied, and the simulated traffic oscillations and synchronized traffic flow are consistent with the empirical patterns. Moreover, two experiments of model calibration and validation are conducted. The first is to calibrate and validate using experimental data, which illustrates that the concave growth pattern has been quantitatively simulated. The second is to calibrate and cross validate vehicles' trajectories using NGSIM data, which exhibits that the car following behaviors of single vehicles can be well described. Therefore, our study highlights the importance of speed dependent stochasticity in traffic flow modeling, which cannot be ignored as in most car-following studies.

physics.soc-ph

Empirical analysis and simulation of the evolution concavity of traffic oscillations

This paper has investigated the growth pattern of traffic oscillations in the NGSIM vehicle trajectories data, via measuring the standard deviation of vehicle velocity involved in oscillations. We found that the standard deviation of the velocity increases in a concave way along vehicles in the oscillations. Moreover, all datasets collapse into a single concave curve, which indicates a universal evolution law of oscillations. A comparison with traffic experiment shows that the empirical and the experimental results are highly compatible and can be fitted by a single concave curve, which demonstrates that qualitatively the growth pattern of oscillations is not affected by type of bottleneck and lane changing behavior. We have shown theoretically that small disturbances increase in a convex way in the initial stage in the traditional models presuming a unique relationship between speed and density, which obviously deviates from our findings. Simulations show that stochastic models in which the traffic state dynamically spans a 2D region in the speed-spacing plane can qualitatively or even quantitatively reproduce the concave growth pattern of traffic oscillations.

nlin.CG

Common feature of concave growth pattern of oscillations in terms of speed, acceleration, fuel consumption and emission in car following: experiment and modeling

This paper has investigated the growth pattern of traffic oscillations by using vehicle trajectory data in a car following experiment. We measured the standard deviation of acceleration, emission and fuel consumption of each vehicle in the car-following platoon. We found that: (1) Similar to the standard deviation of speed, these indices exhibit a common feature of concave growth pattern along vehicles in the platoon; (2) The emission and fuel consumption of each vehicle decrease remarkably when the average speed of the platoon increases from low value; However, when reaches 30km/h, the change of emission and fuel consumption with is not so significant; (3), the correlations of emission and fuel consumption with both the standard deviation of acceleration and the speed oscillation are strong. Simulations show that with the memory effect of drivers taken into account, the improved two-dimensional intelligent driver model is able to reproduce the common feature of traffic oscillation evolution quite well.

physics.soc-ph

Cellular automaton model simulating spatiotemporal patterns, phase transitions and evolution concavity in traffic flow

This paper firstly show that a recent model (Tian et al., Transpn. Res. B 71, 138-157, 2015) is not able to well replicate the evolution concavity in traffic flow, i.e. the standard deviation of vehicles increases in a concave/linear way along the platoon. Then we propose an improved model by introducing the safe speed, the logistic function of the randomization probability, and small randomization deceleration for low-speed vehicles into the model. Simulations show that the improved model can well reproduce the metastable states, the spatiotemporal patterns, the phase transition behaviors of traffic flow, and the evolution concavity of traffic oscillations. Validating results show that the empirical time series of traffic speed obtained from Floating Car Data can be well simulated as well.

nlin.CG

Cellular automaton model with dynamical 2D speed-gap relation reproduces empirical and experimental features of traffic flow

This paper proposes an improved cellular automaton traffic flow model based on the brake light model, which takes into account that the desired time gap of vehicles is remarkably larger than one second. Although the hypothetical steady state of vehicles in the deterministic limit corresponds to a unique relationship between speeds and gaps in the proposed model, the traffic states of vehicles dynamically span a two-dimensional region in the plane of speed versus gap, due to the various randomizations. It is shown that the model is able to well reproduce (i) the free flow, synchronized flow, jam as well as the transitions among the three phases; (ii) the evolution features of disturbances and the spatiotemporal patterns in a car-following platoon; (iii) the empirical time series of traffic speed obtained from NGSIM data. Therefore, we argue that a model can potentially reproduce the empirical and experimental features of traffic flow, provided that the traffic states are able to dynamically span a 2D speed-gap region.

nlin.CG

Microscopic driving theory with oscillatory congested states: model and empirical verification

The essential distinction between the Fundamental Diagram Approach (FDA) and Kerner's Three- Phase Theory (KTPT) is the existence of a unique gap-speed (or flow-density) relationship in the former class. In order to verify this relationship, empirical data are analyzed with the following findings: (1) linear relationship between the actual space gap and speed can be identified when the speed difference between vehicles approximates zero; (2) vehicles accelerate or decelerate around the desired space gap most of the time. To explain these phenomena, we propose that, in congested traffic flow, the space gap between two vehicles will oscillate around the desired space gap in the deterministic limit. This assumption is formulated in terms of a cellular automaton. In contrast to FDA and KTPT, the new model does not have any congested steady-state solution. Simulations under periodic and open boundary conditions reproduce the empirical findings of KTPT. Calibrating and validating the model to detector data produces results that are better than that of previous studies.

physics.soc-ph