arXiv subjects

Shrey Gupta

Publications and source records attributed to Shrey Gupta.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Evaluating and improving crop-yield forecasting methods during extreme drought

The impact of climate variability on food production has led to the creation of various forecasting models that uses machine learning (ML), numerical weather predictors (NWP) or a hybrid of ML-NWP models to identify structural and physical relationships between meteorological drivers and crop growth, in order to predict crop yield. Droughts, for example the 2012 Midwestern US (Corn Belt) drought, are extreme events that affect crop production and test the limits of these forecasting models. Using 16 meteorological drivers as predictors, we compare ML (non-deep learning) and deep learning forecasting models to predict the county-level corn yield for the extreme drought year, 2012. This forecasting problem is characterized by a dissimilarity between the feature distributions of the training and test data, where the meteorological conditions of the extreme drought year fall outside the range of historically observed values. Additionally, the dataset consists of spatial and temporal irregularities where counties with missing yields introduce spatial sparsity and the use of only a subset of daily values per year introduce temporal sparsity. To overcome this, we use sample weighting and feature selection as modifications to improve our forecasting models. These modifications lead to an improvement for ML models; however, the deep learning model VITA shows little to no improvement. While VITA outperforms the ML models with or without modifications, our current study sheds light on the effect of dissimilarity between train and test feature distributions on forecasting models, compares deep learning versus non-deep learning models, and introduces modifications that are effective for non-deep learning models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Heterogeneity-Aware Client Selection Methodology For Efficient Federated Learning

Federated Learning (FL) enables a distributed client-server architecture where multiple clients collaboratively train a global Machine Learning (ML) model without sharing sensitive local data. However, FL often results in lower accuracy than traditional ML algorithms due to statistical heterogeneity across clients. Prior works attempt to address this by using model updates, such as loss and bias, from client models to select participants that can improve the global model's accuracy. However, these updates neither accurately represent a client's heterogeneity nor are their selection methods deterministic. We mitigate these limitations by introducing Terraform, a novel client selection methodology that uses gradient updates and a deterministic selection algorithm to select heterogeneous clients for retraining. This bi-pronged approach allows Terraform to achieve up to 47 percent higher accuracy over prior works. We further demonstrate its efficiency through comprehensive ablation studies and training time analyses, providing strong justification for the robustness of Terraform.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2024

Spatial Transfer Learning for Estimating PM2.5 in Data-poor Regions

Air pollution, especially particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5), is a pressing concern for public health and is difficult to estimate in developing countries (data-poor regions) due to a lack of ground sensors. Transfer learning models can be leveraged to solve this problem, as they use alternate data sources to gain knowledge (i.e., data from data-rich regions). However, current transfer learning methodologies do not account for dependencies between the source and the target domains. We recognize this transfer problem as spatial transfer learning and propose a new feature named Latent Dependency Factor (LDF) that captures spatial and semantic dependencies of both domains and is subsequently added to the feature spaces of the domains. We generate LDF using a novel two-stage autoencoder model that learns from clusters of similar source and target domain data. Our experiments show that transfer learning models using LDF have a 19.34% improvement over the baselines. We additionally support our experiments with qualitative findings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Television Discourse Decoded: Comprehensive Multimodal Analytics at Scale

In this paper, we tackle the complex task of analyzing televised debates, with a focus on a prime time news debate show from India. Previous methods, which often relied solely on text, fall short in capturing the multimodal essence of these debates. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive automated toolkit that employs advanced computer vision and speech-to-text techniques for large-scale multimedia analysis. Utilizing state-of-the-art computer vision algorithms and speech-to-text methods, we transcribe, diarize, and analyze thousands of YouTube videos of a prime-time television debate show in India. These debates are a central part of Indian media but have been criticized for compromised journalistic integrity and excessive dramatization. Our toolkit provides concrete metrics to assess bias and incivility, capturing a comprehensive multimedia perspective that includes text, audio utterances, and video frames. Our findings reveal significant biases in topic selection and panelist representation, along with alarming levels of incivility. This work offers a scalable, automated approach for future research in multimedia analysis, with profound implications for the quality of public discourse and democratic debate. To catalyze further research in this area, we also release the code, dataset collected and supplemental pdf.

cs.MM↗

arXiv2023

Towards Effective Paraphrasing for Information Disguise

Information Disguise (ID), a part of computational ethics in Natural Language Processing (NLP), is concerned with best practices of textual paraphrasing to prevent the non-consensual use of authors' posts on the Internet. Research on ID becomes important when authors' written online communication pertains to sensitive domains, e.g., mental health. Over time, researchers have utilized AI-based automated word spinners (e.g., SpinRewriter, WordAI) for paraphrasing content. However, these tools fail to satisfy the purpose of ID as their paraphrased content still leads to the source when queried on search engines. There is limited prior work on judging the effectiveness of paraphrasing methods for ID on search engines or their proxies, neural retriever (NeurIR) models. We propose a framework where, for a given sentence from an author's post, we perform iterative perturbation on the sentence in the direction of paraphrasing with an attempt to confuse the search mechanism of a NeurIR system when the sentence is queried on it. Our experiments involve the subreddit 'r/AmItheAsshole' as the source of public content and Dense Passage Retriever as a NeurIR system-based proxy for search engines. Our work introduces a novel method of phrase-importance rankings using perplexity scores and involves multi-level phrase substitutions via beam search. Our multi-phrase substitution scheme succeeds in disguising sentences 82% of the time and hence takes an essential step towards enabling researchers to disguise sensitive content effectively before making it public. We also release the code of our approach.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2022

Learning to Automate Follow-up Question Generation using Process Knowledge for Depression Triage on Reddit Posts

Conversational Agents (CAs) powered with deep language models (DLMs) have shown tremendous promise in the domain of mental health. Prominently, the CAs have been used to provide informational or therapeutic services to patients. However, the utility of CAs to assist in mental health triaging has not been explored in the existing work as it requires a controlled generation of follow-up questions (FQs), which are often initiated and guided by the mental health professionals (MHPs) in clinical settings. In the context of depression, our experiments show that DLMs coupled with process knowledge in a mental health questionnaire generate 12.54% and 9.37% better FQs based on similarity and longest common subsequence matches to questions in the PHQ-9 dataset respectively, when compared with DLMs without process knowledge support. Despite coupling with process knowledge, we find that DLMs are still prone to hallucination, i.e., generating redundant, irrelevant, and unsafe FQs. We demonstrate the challenge of using existing datasets to train a DLM for generating FQs that adhere to clinical process knowledge. To address this limitation, we prepared an extended PHQ-9 based dataset, PRIMATE, in collaboration with MHPs. PRIMATE contains annotations regarding whether a particular question in the PHQ-9 dataset has already been answered in the user's initial description of the mental health condition. We used PRIMATE to train a DLM in a supervised setting to identify which of the PHQ-9 questions can be answered directly from the user's post and which ones would require more information from the user. Using performance analysis based on MCC scores, we show that PRIMATE is appropriate for identifying questions in PHQ-9 that could guide generative DLMs towards controlled FQ generation suitable for aiding triaging. Dataset created as a part of this research: https://github.com/primate-mh/Primate2022

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

ISTRBoost: Importance Sampling Transfer Regression using Boosting

Current Instance Transfer Learning (ITL) methodologies use domain adaptation and sub-space transformation to achieve successful transfer learning. However, these methodologies, in their processes, sometimes overfit on the target dataset or suffer from negative transfer if the test dataset has a high variance. Boosting methodologies have been shown to reduce the risk of overfitting by iteratively re-weighing instances with high-residual. However, this balance is usually achieved with parameter optimization, as well as reducing the skewness in weights produced due to the size of the source dataset. While the former can be achieved, the latter is more challenging and can lead to negative transfer. We introduce a simpler and more robust fix to this problem by building upon the popular boosting ITL regression methodology, two-stage TrAdaBoost.R2. Our methodology,~\us{}, is a boosting and random-forest based ensemble methodology that utilizes importance sampling to reduce the skewness due to the source dataset. We show that~\us{}~performs better than competitive transfer learning methodologies $63\%$ of the time. It also displays consistency in its performance over diverse datasets with varying complexities, as opposed to the sporadic results observed for other transfer learning methodologies.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Diagnosing Data from ICTs to Provide Focused Assistance in Agricultural Adoptions

In the last two decades, ICTs have played a pivotal role in empowering rural populations in India by making knowledge more accessible. Digital Green (DG) is one such ICT that employs a participatory approach with smallholder farmers to produce instructional videos that encompass content specific to them. With help of human mediators, they disseminate these videos using projectors to improve the adoption of agricultural practices. DG's web-based data tracker stores attendance and adoption logs of millions of farmers, videos screened and their demographic information. We leverage this data for a period of ten years between 2010-2020 across five states in India and use it to conduct a holistic evaluation of the ICT. First, we find disparities in adoption rates of farmers, following which we use statistical tests to identify different factors that lead to these disparities and gender-based inequalities. Second, to provide assistance to farmers facing challenges, we model the adoption of practices from a video as a prediction problem and experiment with different model architectures. Our classifier achieves accuracies ranging from 79% to 90% across the five states, demonstrating its potential for assisting future ethnographic investigations. Third, we use SHAP values in conjunction with our model for explaining the impact of various network, content and demographic features on adoption. Our research finds that farmers greatly benefit from past adopters of a video from their group and village. We also discover that videos with a low content-specificity benefit some farmers more than others. Next, we highlight the implications of our findings by translating them into recommendations for community building, revisiting participatory approach and mitigating inequalities. We conclude with a discussion on how our work can assist future investigations into the lived experiences of farmers.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

The upper threshold in ballistic annihilation

Three-speed ballistic annihilation starts with infinitely many particles on the real line. Each is independently assigned either speed-$0$ with probability $p$, or speed-$\pm 1$ symmetrically with the remaining probability. All particles simultaneously begin moving at their assigned speeds and mutually annihilate upon colliding. Physicists conjecture when $p \leq p_c = 1/4$ all particles are eventually annihilated. Dygert et. al. prove $p_c \leq .3313$, while Sidoravicius and Tournier describe an approach to prove $p_c \leq .3281$. For the variant in which particles start at the integers, we improve the bound to $.2870$. A renewal property lets us equate survival of a particle to the survival of a Galton-Watson process whose offspring distribution a computer can rigorously approximate. This approach may help answer the nearly thirty-year old conjecture that $p_c >0$.

math.PR↗

arXiv2008

Optimal Energy Management Policies for Energy Harvesting Sensor Nodes

We study a sensor node with an energy harvesting source. The generated energy can be stored in a buffer. The sensor node periodically senses a random field and generates a packet. These packets are stored in a queue and transmitted using the energy available at that time. We obtain energy management policies that are throughput optimal, i.e., the data queue stays stable for the largest possible data rate. Next we obtain energy management policies which minimize the mean delay in the queue.We also compare performance of several easily implementable sub-optimal energy management policies. A greedy policy is identified which, in low SNR regime, is throughput optimal and also minimizes mean delay.

cs.NI↗