arXiv subjects

Shu Wei Chou-Chen

Publications and source records attributed to Shu Wei Chou-Chen.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Hurricane Impact Index for Assessing Direct and Indirect Hazards in Central America

Hurricanes rank among the most destructive natural hazards. They are complex phenomena that can cause both direct damage along their path and indirect impacts due to heavy rainfall and strong winds, with effects varying according to regional topography. In this paper, we propose a Hurricane Impact Index to assess both direct and indirect hazards, and we demonstrate its applicability to the Central American region. The index is constructed so that we can decompose these effects across multiple dimensions of time and space, enabling a detailed analysis of the intensity and distribution of hurricane impacts.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2024

Forecasting hospital discharges for respiratory conditions in Costa Rica using climate and pollution data

Respiratory diseases represent one of the most significant economic burdens on healthcare systems worldwide. The variation in the increasing number of cases depends greatly on climatic seasonal effects, socioeconomic factors, and pollution. Therefore, understanding these variations and obtaining precise forecasts allows health authorities to make correct decisions regarding the allocation of limited economic and human resources. This study aims to model and forecast weekly hospitalizations due to respiratory conditions in seven regional hospitals in Costa Rica using four statistical learning techniques (Random Forest, XGboost, Facebook's Prophet forecasting model, and an ensemble method combining the above methods), along with 22 climate change indices and aerosol optical depth as an indicator of pollution. Models are trained using data from 2000 to 2018 and are evaluated using data from 2019 as testing data. Reliable predictions are obtained for each of the seven regional hospitals

stat.AP↗

arXiv2020

Indirect inference for locally stationary ARMA processes with stable innovations

The class of locally stationary processes assumes that there is a time-varying spectral representation, that is, the existence of finite second moment. We propose the $α$-stable locally stationary process by modifying the innovations into stable distributions and the indirect inference to estimate this type of model. Due to the infinite variance, some of interesting properties such as time-varying auto-correlation cannot be defined. However, since the $α$-stable family of distributions is closed under linear combination which includes the possibility of handling asymmetry and thicker tails, the proposed model has the same tail behavior throughout the time. In this paper, we propose this new model, present theoretical properties of the process and carry out simulations related to the indirect inference in order to estimate the parametric form of the model. Finally, an empirical application is illustrated.

stat.ME↗